Barack Obama’s Christmas TV ad, with wife Michelle and their
two daughters.
The week ahead in presidential politics is, frankly, bizarre. It’s the first time in history in which very consequential campaigning takes place during the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. For that, we can thank our friends in Iowa and New Hampshire, who cling to to their traditional first-in-the-nation status beyond most semblances of rationality.
And so yesterday saw the former president of the United States, Bill Clinton, and his former first lady wife, Hillary Clinton, trying against the odds with full schedules in icy Iowa for each, to stave off the candidacy of freshman Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Who was also all over Iowa, where he has a narrow but consistent lead. The Clintons, proprietors of the most awesome political machine in America, were further motivated in their quest to tamp down the tyro who would be America’s first president of color by fresh news from their “firewall” primary state, New Hampshire, where Obama has just taken the merest sliver of a lead after trailing by 20 points in November.
Now, on Christamas Eve, and at least continuing into Christmas Day, we are in what in campaign terms is called a “float.” No campaigning. Well, except for whatever might be arriving belatedly by mail.
Hillary Clinton’s Christmas TV ad. She is now in big trouble in
New Hampshire, as well as Iowa.
The Clintons are struggling with one of the most fundamental questions of all. Who is the principal? Is it the New York senator and former first lady who has seemed, at least to the credulous, a dominatingly inevitable frontrunner all year long. Or is it the popular former president, without whom Hillary might well be, not to put too fine a point on it, Hillary Who?
As to which is first, or at least, on first, that is a larger question than I am willing to deal with over Christmas. Hillary may, or may not, have made Bill possible. But without President Bill, there is probably no Senator Hill, much less would-be President Hill.
Beyond which we get into questions of interest only to diehard Clinton loyalists. Or to the dramatists of miniseries. Hold that thought. Although for now, let’s say that a little President Bill in a campaign in which he is not the candidate — and in which his presence reminds that the candidate may not be the principal — goes a very long way indeed. A long way that doesn’t even begin to cover this world statesman spending most of the past week shlepping around the snow drifts of Iowa.
For Democrats have a strong field this year, including John Edwards, who in another year would not be Barack Obama’s spoiler, but the clear favorite, and Obama himself, the best orator in the country, a record-breaking fundraiser, and the first black candidate with a very serious chance to win the presidency.
So serious, in fact, that he is leading in largely lily-white Iowa, and in at least a dead heat with Hillary in her supposed firewall state of New Hampshire.
Incidentally, with regard to Hillary and her Christmas TV ad … Why would she, or anyone in her campaign, suppose that any normal voter would know what she is referring to with “universal pre-K?”
Obama, who at last turned in a good debate performance on December 13th — better late than never — is showing one of two things. Either he has improved dramatically, or the press — which slavishly followed the Clinton campaign meme of the “inevitable” Hillary for many months — is at last realizing that what Hillary was saying about refusing to talk to enemies and a silly notion of nuclear “deterrence” is more ahistorical nonsense than political good sense. Which is another way of saying that actual voters, when they considered it, didn’t buy the Beltway conventional wisdom.
For the umpteenth time in history, for those who care or notice.
Who’s that comeback “kid?” John McCain.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee is holding onto the lead in Iowa. Which he seized from the megabucks frontrunner there, Mitt Romney, against all odds. Which means, hello again, John McCain.
The Republicans are in the midst of vicious civil war now. Their evangelical Christian component, which doctrinaire conservatives in the Washington and pundit class, would-be and otherwise, have been happy to have supply needed votes and otherwise keep out of the way, have found their man. And it’s the unwanted man, a Baptist minister and successful governor of godblasted Arkansas, who doesn’t believe in evolution, does believe in the greenhouse effect, and thinks that a certain populist concern for the less than rich is more important than the party’s no new taxes mantra. Or the bomb Iran mantra, which was thoroughly disrupted last month by the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which found no clear and present danger of an Iranian nuclear weapon. And so Rudy Giuliani’s dramatic reboot of his campaign last weekend — “America needs strength” — fell flat.
Giuliani, the social liberal/warhawk erstwhile frontrunner, is not a political hemophiliac exactly. But he is rapidly fading off the radar screen, following after another touted candidate, Fred Thompson, who — barring a dramatic comeback — essentially ended his candidacy when he announced it on The Tonight Show. As I rather politely alluded to, at great length, that very night this past September.
Mike Huckabee jams on bass guitar during a break from his Iowa
bus tour.
This would leave Mitt Romney as the doctrinaire and clearcut choice as the GOP nominee, but for three inconvenient truths. He has recently changed his position on some of the biggest values issues of our time. He is a Mormon, which evangelicals and many other Americans consider to be a science fiction religion. (To say that Democrats would enjoy running against Romney is to engage in considerable understatement.) And he is behind in Iowa, where he has spent more money than any candidate in history, and has been caught in New Hampshire, the neighboring state to his one-term Massachusetts governorship — which he won by espousing a politics quite different from the one he is currently running on — by a guy who has already been killed off twice in this very year which is about to end.
That would be Captain John McCain, USN (retired, for medical reasons). The veteran Arizona senator, son of CINCPAC (Commander-In-Chief-Pacific Command), one of the most famous heroes of the Vietnam War, started the year as the Republican presidential frontrunner. Only to fall, not once, but twice. First, because independents and moderates abandoned him for his stubbornness on the Iraq War surge. Then as conservatives excoriated him for his moderation on illegal immigration.
But the truth is that every top Republican other than Thompson is “squishy” on illegal immigration. Vide Romney’s household workers, Huckabee’s scholarships, and Giulian’s “sanctuary city.” And McCain, given the real but of necessity limited military success of the surge — which now requires political progress with Iraqi factions and engagement with Iran in order to ultimately succeed, just as the Iraq Study Group pointed out a year ago — looks rather prescient. McCain warned for years that the wrong course was being followed in Iraq. Too few boots on the ground, too little challenging of Iraq’s various factions to get off their asses if they wanted their country to succeed.
John McCain, whose Christmas ad — Why are they doing Christmas ads? Because this crazy campaign has the candidates campaigning over the holidays, that’s why. — goes Mike Huckabee’s notorious “floating cross” spot one better by overtly using an incident from his prisoner of war days to invoke the cross, is coming back for a third time in this campaign. And at just the right time. He’s backed by a raft of newspapers, right and left, and the Democrats’ 2000 vice presidential nominee-turned-independent senator, Joe Lieberman.
Previously knocked down and seemingly out by the loss of moderates and independents over his war stance, and conservatives over his immigration stance, McCain is taking advantage of the chaos that is the Republican presidential field to come on again in New Hampshire and other early states. He’s picked up the endorsement of both big papers in the former Massachusetts governor’s erstwhile home town — the conservative Boston Herald and liberal Boston Globe — as well as the Des Moines Register and most of the papers in New Hampshire, including the staunchly conservative Manchester Union Leader. All of which is an aggravation to Romney, who has counted on his neighbor status from his Massachusetts governor days to make him a favorite son. …
You can read the rest of Monday Morning Quarterback on PJ Media.
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| Comments (41) |
President Obama? Many of my country people do not like blacks. I do not think Russian people are ready for black President of USA.
President Obama? Many of my country people do not like blacks. I do not think Russian people are ready for black President of USA.
Why does the Youtube not work so very well any more?
Why does the Youtube not work so very well any more?
Thank you for another Monday Morning Quarterback seat on the campaign press bus. It my case it has kept me tethered to the reality-based community.
It is hard not to applaud straight talk express McCain. I was just thinking the nation would need not fret about its future beyond about April if at the end of the day the process produces a McCain – Obama match up. Either way it went in November we would unavoidably become a more unified country
God, too many videos! I love it.
Hilary’s Christmas ad is pompous. She also doesn’t use the world Christmas.
Hilary’s Christmas ad is pompous. She also doesn’t use the world Christmas.
The Obamas look like a nice American family.
This McCain thing is just amazing.
Huckabee’s pretty cool on bass.
Shot from a strange angle, though.
Shot from a strange angle, though.
I had real doubts he could come back, again.
>Jonas Blane :
This McCain thing is just amazing.
Dec 24, 2007 08:05 AM
There’s just one little thing …
>Jonas Blane :
The Obamas look like a nice American family.
Dec 24, 2007 08:04 AM
I should have mentioned this in the piece. Hillary is actually playing Santa Claus.
>Jonas Blane :
Hilary’s Christmas ad is pompous. She also doesn’t use the world Christmas.
Dec 24, 2007 08:02 AM
Just wait …
>Jonas Blane :
God, too many videos! I love it.
Dec 24, 2007 07:53 AM
Just wait …
>Jonas Blane :
God, too many videos! I love it.
Dec 24, 2007 07:53 AM
You’re welcome!
>Hap Hazard :
Thank you for another Monday Morning Quarterback seat on the campaign press bus. It my case it has kept me tethered to the reality-based community.
It is hard not to applaud straight talk express McCain. I was just thinking the nation would need not fret about its future beyond about April if at the end of the day the process produces a McCain – Obama match up. Either way it went in November we would unavoidably become a more unified country
Dec 24, 2007 07:25 AM
I don’t know. YouTube is getting glitcher, in a number of ways. Keep clicking on it till it works, and refresh the page.
>sergei :
Why does the Youtube not work so very well any more?
Dec 24, 2007 02:28 AM
We’re a long ways from that.
In much, maybe most, of the world, people would be positively amazed to see someone who looks like Obama as the American president.
I understand that many Russians have racial issues. So be it.
>sergei :
President Obama? Many of my country people do not like blacks. I do not think Russian people are ready for black President of USA.
Dec 24, 2007 02:20 AM
The Fall of the Clintons if it happens is a gigantic story. Hope you’re all over it. Merry Christmas!
The Fall of the Clintons if it happens is a gigantic story. Hope you’re all over it. Merry Christmas!
Where’s all the Christmas stuff? lol
Where’s all the Christmas stuff? lol
Such impatience!
Yep.
>Capitol Boy :
The Fall of the Clintons if it happens is a gigantic story. Hope you’re all over it. Merry Christmas!
Dec 24, 2007 10:04 AM
Ho, ho, ho…
Good stuff, Mr. Bradley. Now, where are our presents????
Check the front page.
Check the front page.
Who is it, the next President?
Oh, I think that would be no.
The Clintons are on the verge of the biggest comeuppance in American political history.
The Clintons are on the verge of the biggest comeuppance in American political history.
The Clintons are on the verge of the biggest comeuppance in American political history.
Sorry for the double posting.
Sorry for the double posting.
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM LONDON MR. BRADLEY!!! here’s hoping you and yours have a great CHRISTMAS DAY !IT’S A MILD RAINY DAY NO GLOVES OR HAT NEEDED! OFF FOR A WALK IN HYDE PARK…toodles/cheerio!
We’ll see.
>Jonathan Hemlock :
The Clintons are on the verge of the biggest comeuppance in American political history.
Dec 24, 2007 05:14 PM
We’ll see.
>Jonathan Hemlock :
The Clintons are on the verge of the biggest comeuppance in American political history.
Dec 24, 2007 05:14 PM
Thanks, Barbara! Merry Christmas to you, too!
It sounds lovely in London, what a great place for Christmas.
>Barbara :
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM LONDON MR. BRADLEY!!! here’s hoping you and yours have a great CHRISTMAS DAY !IT’S A MILD RAINY DAY NO GLOVES OR HAT NEEDED! OFF FOR A WALK IN HYDE PARK…toodles/cheerio!
Dec 25, 2007 01:49 AM