Rudy Giuliani, campaigning here at Mel’s diner in San Francisco
on Monday, needs a strong third in Iowa to help his campaign
get to promising big states later in the Republican presidential race.
** DEMOCRACY: PAKISTAN STYLE. President Pervez Musharraf is ending his state of emergency rule of martial law on December 15th, just in time for a three-and-a-half weeks of democratic campaigning in advance of the national parliamentary elections on January 8th.
Or is he?
Officially, the answer is yes, and Musharraf will be sure to mark the occasion. But in reality, the answer is no, because the nation’s media will continue under tight restrictions. The independent stations have been notified that if they give Musharraf’s critics a forum, they will be jailed and have their operations shut down. For fomenting violence and insurrection. Which was the very excuse used in the first place to institute martial law.
** DAVIS HAPPY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE COURT VICTORY. Former Governor Gray Davis is happy about today’s federal court decision rejecting the lawsuit against California’s landmark law to cut tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases by new vehicles.
Davis told me that he’s very “pleased to see the automakers that have been blocking the implementation of the law I signed in 2002 allowing California to regulate carbon emissions from vehicles lost today in Federal Court.”
Davis signed the bill, by then LA Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, in August 2002 at a spectacular ceremony in San Francisco’s Presidio overlooking the Golden Gate Bridge with Robert Redford and other notables in attendance. The fog literally parted shortly before the event began. The auto industry had threatened a referendum to invalidate the measure during Davis’s re-election campaign, but he went ahead and signed the bill anyway.
** RISING OIL, AGAIN. Oil prices shot up to $94 a barrel today, with OPEC having backed away from production hikes last week.
** AN UNEVENTFUL REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. To be blunt about it, not much happened in today’s Republican presidential debate in Iowa. The moderator, who is the editor of the Des Moines Register, effectively took the hot button illegal immigration issue off the table. Iran, once a big issue for the Republican candidates, barely came up in the wake of last week’s US National Intelligence Estimate downplaying a nuclear weapons program.
I thought Mitt Romney was the best performer on the stage. Mike Huckabee seemed sincere. Fred Thompson was livelier than usual. Rudy Giuliani was competent. John McCain, who is playing for New Hampshire, took a few shots at ethanol subsidies, an Iowa shibboleth that plays badly with New Englanders. Alan Keyes, who is not a serious candidate, was inexplicably on the stage wasting valuable time.
The upshot is that no one laid a glove on Mike Huckabee, who has the clear lead in Iowa, he was effective and likable, so he won.
** CLINTON CAMPAIGN OFFICIAL HITS OBAMA FOR DRUG USE. A veteran political operative who is Hillary Clinton’s New Hampshire co-chairman, Billy Shaheen, hit Barack Obama today on his youthful drug use. His rationale is that Republicans would use it against the Illinois senator, who is close to upsetting Hillary’s apple cart in the early states, and thus he would be less electable than he otherwise seems to be.
Shaheen is the husband of former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen, one of Clinton’s national co-chairs. Obama’s drug use as a teenager is known because he wrote about it in his best-selling autobiography, presenting his own experience as an example of what young people should avoid.
** NATIONAL TRACKING POLL. The nightly national tracking poll by Rasmussen Reports — a robopoll, which I don’t especially like, but which does indicate directions in opinion — has Mike Huckabee atop the Republican presidential pack and Hillary Clinton’s national lead over Barack Obama in single digits.
Huckabee leads Rudy Giuliani, 23% to 19%, while on the Democratic side, Clinton leads Obama, 36% to 28%.
** BROWN ON CLIMATE CHANGE COURT VICTORY. The auto industry challenge to California’s landmark motor vehicle emissions standards failed today in a federal court in Fresno. Judge Anthony Ishi dismissed the carmakers’s case, handing a victory to former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown and his legal team. The emissions standard, established by AB 1493 in 2002, requires a 30 percent reduction in tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions by 2016, starting with model year 2009.
“This is the fourth major legal victory for California and a stinging rejection of the automobile industry’s legal challenge to greenhouse gas emissions standards,” said Brown. “This court ruling leaves the Bush administration as the last remaining roadblock to California’s regulation of tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions.”
The court decided that both the US Environmental Protection Agency and California are equally empowered under the Clean Air Act to set regulations limiting tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions. It also ruled that the state’s regulations don’t conflict with federal authority.
** BIG REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE TODAY. With Mike Huckabee soaring in the polls, former Iowa leader Mitt Romney and the rest of the Republican field get a big chance to take the former Arkansas governor and Baptist preacher down a few notches in today’s Des Moines Register debate, the last before the Iowa presidential caucuses on January 3rd.
The Democratic presidential candidates hold their last Iowa debate before the caucuses tomorrow.
At 11 AM Pacific time, the Republican field goes at it for 90 minutes in this event sponsored by the Register, the Hawkeye State’s leading newspaper, and Iowa Public Television. For those who don’t get Iowa Public TV, you can watch the showdown on Fox News.
Much of Iowa has been in deep freeze with an ice storm cutting off power to nearly 100,000 people and causing some campaigners — like former President Bill Clinton — to suspend their schedules yesterday. But the heat should definitely be on in today’s debate.
Fueled by the evangelical Christian vote, Huckabee, who accepted the endorsement yesterday of Jim Gilchrist, founder of the anti-illegal immigrant Minutemen group — the crew that organized vigilantes along the Mexican border — has jumped to a double-digit lead in Iowa over the free-spending campaign of Mitt Romney and is surging around the country. Now Romney, and much of the conservative punditocracy, is taking dead aim at Huckabee for his various apostasies from their doctrine. While a clearcut social conservative, Huckabee has been a little bit more moderate on some economic and environmental policies.
Romney, the former Massachusetts governor whose big lead in neighboring New Hampshire has slipped, has always seen a victory in Iowa as the key to his strategic sequence. Romney, who started negative TV ads on Monday, has to bring Huckabee back to earth, and fast. His speech last week on religion — prompted by Huckabee’s rise and by concerns about Romney’s controversial Mormon faith — didn’t help him that much, despite many huzzahs from right-wing pundits in the press and blogosphere.
Meanwhile, the rest of the field hopes that the Huckabee-Romney dust-up will begin to “redistribute,” as one top Republican strategist puts it, support from the two in the center of the ring to other candidates.
Fred Thompson hopes to capitalize on other candidates’ difficulties
on the illegal immigration issue to break through in Iowa.
Fred Thompson, who tantalized the country for months with his almost candidacy, only to fizzle after entering the race via The Tonight Show, starts a huge Iowa push today that will see him spending virtually every day there from next week on through the caucus. Illegal immigration has emerged as a core issue in the race, and Huckabee (who supported scholarships for illegal immigrant children as Arkansas governor), Romney (who had illegal immigrants working in his home), Giuliani (who supported programs for illegals as New York’s mayor), and John McCain (who co-authored an “amnesty” bill with, gulp, Teddy Kennedy) all have problems in the area.
He’s fighting it out for third in Iowa with Rudy Giuliani, the 9/11 hero and longtime national frontrunner whose lead has been matched by the surging Huckabee.
Thompson needs a strong showing in Iowa to get back into the race. Giuliani needs a strong showing in Iowa to give him a boost going into New Hampshire, so that he has a strong enough showing there to survive till he gets to bigger states where he has a much better chance to win.
As for McCain, the wily Vietnam War hero — who was the frontrunner in this race when it started — is slowly moving up again in New Hampshire. There are few expectations for him in Iowa. If he manages to beat Giuliani there, so much the better for him five days later in New Hampshire.
** HILLARY AND OBAMA TIED IN NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL. A brand new poll for CNN/WMUR-TV has Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama now essentially tied for first in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary.
The numbers are Clinton 31%, Obama 30%, John Edwards 16%, and Bill Richardson 7%. A couple of months ago, Clinton led Obama by about 20 points.
** SCHWARZENEGGER IN PRIVATE CAPITOL MEETINGS TODAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will again be closeted in private meetings today on the state’s chronic budget problems and deadlocked negotiations on water policy and comprehensive health care reform.
The administration is saying that California’s budget deficit for the current and next fiscal year — estimated recently by the Legislative Analyst’s Office at $10 billion — is now $14 billion.
Since legislative hyperpartisans of the left and, especially, right have declined to provide solutions, what Schwarzenegger should do, as NWN has suggested a few times before, is prepare a “disaster budget” showing what programs have to be cut absent compromise on spending and revenues.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices are trading up in the $90 to $91 per barrel range.
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Fred Thompson’s ad is boring.
Fred Thompson’s ad is boring.
That looks like a cool diner Rudy was at out in San Fran. Is it?
I do not remember religion being such big issue in last American elections. Is your country becoming more religious? Why do your fundamentalist have their own candidate? Is dissastifaction with Bush candidates?
I do not remember religion being such big issue in last American elections. Is your country becoming more religious? Why do your fundamentalist have their own candidate? Is dissastifaction with Bush candidates?
Mel’s Drive-In is overrated. San Francisco isn’t “Sab Fran.” At least you didn’t call it Frisco.
The Repubs bore me.
Hillary Clinton is in HUGE trouble. Tied with Barack in NH. That’s huge.
Fred Thompson is vague. Isn’t he supposed to be “The Great Communicator” reincarnated? lol
That’s the toughest immigration ad I see from Thompson.
That’s the toughest immigration ad I see from Thompson.
This is Hillary’s worst New Hampshire poll to date.
>Capitol Boy :
The Repubs bore me.
Hillary Clinton is in HUGE trouble. Tied with Barack in NH. That’s huge.
Dec 12, 2007 06:54 AM
This is a much longer question, but the evangelicals are beginning to leave the old conservative consensus.
>sergei :
I do not remember religion being such big issue in last American elections. Is your country becoming more religious? Why do your fundamentalist have their own candidate? Is dissastifaction with Bush candidates?
Dec 12, 2007 06:12 AM
… Also, most of the top Republican candidates have problems on social conservative issues.
I like Mel’s. It’s a nice little restaurant.
>Jonas Blane :
That looks like a cool diner Rudy was at out in San Fran. Is it?
Dec 12, 2007 05:55 AM
It is rather dull.
>Jonas Blane :
Fred Thompson’s ad is boring.
Dec 12, 2007 05:49 AM
It is rather dull.
>Jonas Blane :
Fred Thompson’s ad is boring.
Dec 12, 2007 05:49 AM
I may watch the second half of this. Fun stuff. Willard Romney swinging at the Preacher.
With so much of Iowa dark and freezing right now, might it be prudent for a candidate to have a plan to improve and secure the electrical grid? Aren’t some Iowans thinking of nothing else this week than damn, it’s cold and dark?
What are you talking about Wilbur? Don’t you know Jesus is the way and the light?
(Sorry, I couldn’t resist that!)
Bill, still think the CA budget mess has relatively easy solutions? Our failure to put taxes on the table will kill us. Arnie will probably have to eat crow and rescind the “Car Tax” reduction again since he can get that without the 2/3 rigamarole.
Bill, still think the CA budget mess has relatively easy solutions? Our failure to put taxes on the table will kill us. Arnie will probably have to eat crow and rescind the “Car Tax” reduction again since he can get that without the 2/3 rigamarole.
What I said is that after next year, things get easier. I’ll have a lot more to say about the meantime when the time comes …
The top two candidates are men with religious titles.
Huckabee is former president of the Arkansas Baptist Convention.
Romney is a former Mormon bishop and stake president.
>richard locicero :
What are you talking about Wilbur? Don’t you know Jesus is the way and the light?
(Sorry, I couldn’t resist that!)
Dec 12, 2007 09:25 AM
I doubt we’ll hear much about that.
>Wilbur :
With so much of Iowa dark and freezing right now, might it be prudent for a candidate to have a plan to improve and secure the electrical grid? Aren’t some Iowans thinking of nothing else this week than damn, it’s cold and dark?
Dec 12, 2007 09:22 AM
I doubt we’ll hear much about that.
>Wilbur :
With so much of Iowa dark and freezing right now, might it be prudent for a candidate to have a plan to improve and secure the electrical grid? Aren’t some Iowans thinking of nothing else this week than damn, it’s cold and dark?
Dec 12, 2007 09:22 AM
It’s potentially fascinating.
>Jack Aubrey :
I may watch the second half of this. Fun stuff. Willard Romney swinging at the Preacher.
Dec 12, 2007 09:16 AM
David Corn thinks a theological dispute could break out. Now wouldn’t that really help the GOP!
Alan Keys is in the debate. lol
The Dems cut Mike Gravel, why is Keyes in there?
He’s CRAZY. lol
He’s CRAZY. lol
I don’t know why Keyes is in the GOP debate. He makes Kucinich and Gravel seem eminently plausible.
I don’t know why Keyes is in the GOP debate. He makes Kucinich and Gravel seem eminently plausible.
You mean, is Jesus Satan’s brother?
>richard locicero :
David Corn thinks a theological dispute could break out. Now wouldn’t that really help the GOP!
Dec 12, 2007 10:56 AM
I like the Reep meter, on the right of the tv screen.
You don’t think it’s a distracting gimmick?
That was a boring debate.
I like to watch the reactions of the audience. I still don’t feel like the Reeps are talking to me. They seem full of themselves and more more rehearsed then in the past.
I like to watch the reactions of the audience. I still don’t feel like the Reeps are talking to me. They seem full of themselves and more more rehearsed then in the past.
“HILLARY AND OBAMA TIED IN NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL.”
Did Lehane put out another memo today explaining how Hillary’s freefall really means she’s winning?
What’s it like inside that Clinton bubble? I bet it smells like potpourri and copy toner. Celine Dion is playing softly in the background. Corporate inspirational posters adorn the walls (“Success is Contagious!”). It’s always a constant 72 degrees. Fair trade decaf coffee and lowfat bran muffins are always close at hand. See you at the inaugural, “President” Clinton!
Thompson doesn’t even go after Romney, Giuliani or Huckabee in that ad. It looks to have been shot weeks ago. It doesn’t set him apart from Huckabee and Romney on immigration. Huckabee already got the biggest immigration nut case endorsement – what else is there?
They’re going negative, of course.
… I mean the Clinton campaign, with regard to going negative.
The Thompson ad is ineffective.
… I mean the Clinton campaign, with regard to going negative.
The Thompson ad is ineffective.
I don’t think those are real reactions. Real voters don’t watch and consider a debate by self-consciously pushing on a handheld meter to give their reaction to every little thing.
>carole w :
I like to watch the reactions of the audience. I still don’t feel like the Reeps are talking to me. They seem full of themselves and more more rehearsed then in the past.
Dec 12, 2007 12:30 PM
Yep.
>Ann :
That was a boring debate.
Dec 12, 2007 12:27 PM
“CLINTON CAMPAIGN OFFICIAL HITS OBAMA FOR DRUG USE”
Clinton went to Wellesley College during the 1960’s and she’s married to Bill “I didn’t inhale” Clinton.
Hillary is supposed to be a major league pitcher and she’s flailing away at pitches thrown in the dirt. She’s behind in the count and she’s panicking.
Wouldn’t a disaster budget likely have to take on some Republican sacred cows? Would they finally have to drop their unreasonable stance in re taxes? And how do we overcopme Dem aversion to any social cuts?
“what Schwarzenegger should do, as NWN has suggested a few times before, is prepare a “disaster budget” showing what programs have to be cut absent compromise on spending and revenues.”
Sorry, meant “hitter” not pitcher — talking and typing at the same time again.
Sorry, meant “hitter” not pitcher — talking and typing at the same time again.