Hillary Clinton’s brand new “New Beginning” theme ad.
** NATIONAL REVIEW ENDORSES MITT ROMNEY FOR PRESIDENT. The National Review magazine, the conventional conservative bulwark, this afternoon endorsed Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. This makes sense, since Romney is the favorite of the most of the conservative punditocracy and blogosphere which hailed his religion speech last week, which did not do nearly so well as they said at the time.
So sayeth the editors: Our guiding principle has always been to select the most conservative viable candidate. In our judgment, that candidate is Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts. Unlike some other candidates in the race, Romney is a full-spectrum conservative: a supporter of free-market economics and limited government, moral causes such as the right to life and the preservation of marriage, and a foreign policy based on the national interest. While he has not talked much about the importance of resisting ethnic balkanization — none of the major candidates has — he supports enforcing the immigration laws and opposes amnesty. Those are important steps in the right direction.
Uniting the conservative coalition is not enough to win a presidential election, but it is a prerequisite for building on that coalition. Rudolph Giuliani did extraordinary work as mayor of New York and was inspirational on 9/11. But he and Mike Huckabee would pull apart the coalition from opposite ends: Giuliani alienating the social conservatives, and Huckabee the economic (and foreign-policy) conservatives. A Republican party that abandoned either limited government or moral standards would be much diminished in the service it could give the country.
** ANOTHER CLINTON CAMPAIGN STRATEGY MEMO ON HOW VERY WELL HILLARY IS REALLY DOING. With Hillary Clinton in big trouble now in all the early primary and caucus states, her chief strategist, Mark Penn, has issued another of his famous memos about how well she is doing. Penn is the principal author of the inevitable Hillary theme, which I’ve always pointed out ain’t necessarily so.
In today’s message, he says: The ABC/Washington Post poll shows that there has been a big rise in concern about the economy (44% now say it is one of the two most important issues, up from 29% last month) and healthcare (27% say it is one of the two most important issues, up from 22% last month). Concern about the war is down from 45% to 37%, but the Iraq war remains the number two issue, and Hillary Clinton has a plan to end the war quickly and responsibly, and is the candidate voters trust most on Iraq (51%, compared with 26% or less for Obama and Edwards).
But the voters are also showing their concern about healthcare and the economy and these are issues where Hillary particularly shines with the voters. In the ABC/Washington Post poll, 60% said they trust Hillary Clinton most on healthcare, compared with 16% or less for Edwards and Obama, and 58% said they trust Hillary most on the economy, compared with 18% or less for Edwards and Obama. As voters focus on the growing importance of these issues, it in fact works to Hillary’s advantage because those are issues where they see her as a very strong and experienced leader.
** TOM HAYDEN IS 68 TODAY. The famed anti-Vietnam War leader who served nearly 20 years in the California Legislature and was a longtime left-liberal power broker turned 68 today. NWN recalls his 40th birthday. It was a dark and stormy night on the West Side of Los Angeles. The party was at famed Oz warbler Helen Reddy and producer Jeff Wald’s house. (Wald once offered Hayden his Rolls Royce, which Hayden, as one might suspect, turned down.) Wald had hired dwarves to portray Irish leprechauns, befitting Hayden’s determinedly Irish background. The guest list included Jerry Brown, Cesar Chavez, Gray Davis, Steven Spielberg, and the Eagles. The rest of the story is held for … future development.
** HUCKABEE UP BIG IN IOWA OVER ROMNEY, NOBODY ELSE IN DOUBLE DIGITS. A new Iowa poll shows Mike Huckabee with a huge lead in the Republican caucus race over Mitt Romney, 39% to 23%. Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are tied for a very distant third at 8%.
So if anyone of you wonders why I’m talking about Huckabee and Romney most of the time …
** WESTLY, BACK FROM KEYNOTING BARCELONA TECH CONFERENCE, TALKS TO “GENERATION OBAMA” CONCERTGOERS. Former state Controller Steve Westly, the ex-eBay honcho now a greentech venture capitalist, talked to some 5000 attendees at yesterday’s “Generation Obama” concert with much of young Hollywood in LA. Westly, the California co-chairman of the Obama campaign who ran a near-miss campaign for last year’s Democratic gubernatorial nomination, is part of Barack Obama’s national finance and strategy groups.
He was not long back from a big Barcelona conference on climate change and greentech investing, where he delivered a keynote speech on new energy alternatives and brought a few of his Silicon Valley venture capital colleagues for a forum on developing a risk capital culture in Spain. Westly sounds equally excited about the prospects for his candidate for president and for new energy alternatives, where he is personally especially involved in new vehicles, solar power, and cellulosic ethanol.
** BROWN CONFISCATES GUNS FROM FELONS. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown joined with LA Police Chief William Bratton yesterday to announce the seizure of 541 handguns, rifles and assault weapons during a statewide crackdown on 1,000 dangerous individuals barred from firearms possession because of violent felony convictions.
“During this statewide crackdown, Department of Justice agents investigated 1,000 of the most dangerous cases in the state’s firearms database,” Brown said. “The Department of Justice joined with local law enforcement to disarm hundreds of individuals—felons, domestic violence perpetrators, and people committed to mental health facilities—that should have relinquished their weapons.”
Department of Justice agents used a state database, known as the Armed and Prohibited Persons System, to identify persons who lawfully acquired firearms in the past but became barred from possession due to a subsequent felony conviction. The database, which currently has 9,000 cases, could eventually expand to include 60,000 individuals as new offender records are added to the system.
Brown had previously explained that he wants to take guns out of the hands of people with criminal backgrounds. This is part of what Brown talked about in his campaign last year, a strike force approach utilizing the resources of the attorney general’s office to go after a variety of activities.
** HILLARY REGROUPS WITH “NEW BEGINNING” TV AD. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is in trouble. Her subtext of inevitability, never real, is belatedly being jettisoned by even the most credulous reporters. Her theme of having the experience to make change work is under serious question. Her attacks on her rising rival Barack Obama aren’t very effective.
What to do? Roll out a new advertising theme. Chart a new beginning with a theme of “New Beginnings.”
In this ad, full of sunny vistas filled with appropriate Americans, all of it scored with cinematically uplifting music, Clinton calls for new beginnings on health care, education, and Iraq, running past themes and slogans through a media blender. It’s hard to see this ad doing much for her, although it may make her supporters feel better about the campaign.
One response to the situation that may be more effective is this. Former President Bill Clinton is back in Iowa again, on a two-day tour to try to boost her numbers there again.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton herself is in California again today. Yesterday she raised money in private Southern California events. Today she is in Northern California, where she will hold a “Conversation with Warren Buffett” at the San Francisco Hilton. This event, featuring the world renowned investor, sounds more like a general election event to me.
Last night, her California campaign, which has done an impressive job of organizing, held 300 house parties. But all that spade work will be for naught if Hillary can’t figure out how to effectively contest the messaging, thematics, and atmospherics of Barack Obama.
** OBAMA TAKES LEAD IN SOUTH CAROLINA POLL. In this new poll of the South Carolina Democratic primary, taken by Insider Advantage, Barack Obama has taken the lead over Hillary Clinton.
It’s Obama 28%, Clinton 22%, John Edwards 16%, and Joe Biden 10%. The poll was conducted over the weekend, during the run-up to and day of the huge Obama rally in Columbia, South Carolina with Oprah Winfrey.
** RUSSIA’S NEXT PRIME MINISTER? VLADIMIR PUTIN. Yesterday, as reported on NWN, President Vladimir Putin anointed his former chief of staff, Dmitry Medvedev, as United Russia’s candidate in next March’s presidential election. Putin is term limited by Russia’s constitution, though the party he heads won a super-majority in the parliament this month such that they could change it.
Mitt Romney’s brand new attack ad against Mike Huckabee.
** ROMNEY GOES NEGATIVE. As forecast on NWN, ah, a day ago, Mitt Romney has gone negative on Mike Huckabee. Here’s the brand new attack ad.
It tries to position the two men as equivalent in their family values and social conservatism, without mentioning Romney’s fairly recent social liberalism, then goes after Huckabee for being soft on “illegal aliens.” Specifically, it scores Huckabee for, as governor of Arkansas, supporting in-state tuition rates for illegal immigrant children and for backing state college scholarships for illegal immigrants.
It may chip away some at Huckabee. But it suggests obvious rejoinders, especially to the premise that they are otherwise equivalent candidates for social conservatives.
Mike Huckabee’s new border security ad.
** HUCKABEE ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. Perhaps anticipating Mitt Romney going up with attacks ads against him, as he has just done, Mike Huckabee is running this ad in Iowa and elsewhere on illegal immigration. In it, he pledges a strong effort to secure America’s borders, including the building of the controversial border fence between the US and Mexico.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil are trading up in the $89 to $90 per barrel range.
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Edwards is still in the thick of things. His favorability numbers are higher than Clinton and Obama in Iowa (second only to Bill Clinton) and his core group of supporters are likely to caucus. CNN’s new polling also shows that he does significantly better then Clinton and Obama against the Repub’s top 4 candidates. He can push electability as an issue.
What, Tom Hayden tolerating a “short people” joke oppressing the altitudinally challenged? Did he at least try to organize them to rally against the tyranny of the tall?
He and Jane Fonda were a bit embarrassed, as I recall. Wald was a very pushy guy.
Edwards is a good candidate who is ending up playing a spoiling role.
>AC :
Edwards is still in the thick of things. His favorability numbers are higher than Clinton and Obama in Iowa (second only to Bill Clinton) and his core group of supporters are likely to caucus. CNN’s new polling also shows that he does significantly better then Clinton and Obama against the Repub’s top 4 candidates. He can push electability as an issue.
Dec 11, 2007 04:18 PM
Edwards is a good candidate who is ending up playing a spoiling role.
>AC :
Edwards is still in the thick of things. His favorability numbers are higher than Clinton and Obama in Iowa (second only to Bill Clinton) and his core group of supporters are likely to caucus. CNN’s new polling also shows that he does significantly better then Clinton and Obama against the Repub’s top 4 candidates. He can push electability as an issue.
Dec 11, 2007 04:18 PM
That’s kind of, you know, better.
>Brasky :
As an interesting contrast to Hillary’s latest ad, here’s Bill Clinton’s “Journey” ad from 1992:
http://tinyurl.com/2yntsq
Dec 11, 2007 03:34 PM
Which deals are those?
>
To further contrast the entertaining world of presidential politics, how are those “imminent” deals on water and health care coming in Sacramento?
Dec 11, 2007 03:23 PM
I just luck into everything.
>carole w :
You have partied with rock bands and I have parties for screaming 10 year olds…Life is not fair!
Dec 11, 2007 03:22 PM
That’s not unlikely.
>Dana :
Bill, given your comments yesterday in re Edwards & his Iowa supporters sounds like they likely will migrate to Obama if they have to line up behind a 2nd choice during “realignment” per the rules of the for Democrats. That could spell trouble for Clinton–maybe run second but faced with recovering from a large Obama win. And New Hampshire only 5 days later.
[en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucu...]
Dec 11, 2007 03:21 PM
That’s not unlikely.
>Dana :
Bill, given your comments yesterday in re Edwards & his Iowa supporters sounds like they likely will migrate to Obama if they have to line up behind a 2nd choice during “realignment” per the rules of the for Democrats. That could spell trouble for Clinton–maybe run second but faced with recovering from a large Obama win. And New Hampshire only 5 days later.
[en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucu...]
Dec 11, 2007 03:21 PM
Jerry Brown keeps doing it, doesn’t he?
He’s reliable. lol
He might not run for governor.
Anyone else see the CNN poll that shows that Oprah was a net negative for Obama (more people would be disinclined to vote for him after hearing from her than would be inclined to vote for him – only one percent) while Bill Clinton was a huge positive for Hillary.
Somehow I find that hard to believe.
Hillary would probably be in a better position to criticize Obama over Oprah – she runs a non-union shop and so is still on despite the WGA strike – if she didn’t have “advisors” like Mark Penn or Chris Lehane.
Hillary would probably be in a better position to criticize Obama over Oprah – she runs a non-union shop and so is still on despite the WGA strike – if she didn’t have “advisors” like Mark Penn or Chris Lehane.
Lehane is being blackballed by labor. Should I write about that?
It’s nonsense. Obama just moved ahead in South Carolina.
>richard locicero :
Anyone else see the CNN poll that shows that Oprah was a net negative for Obama (more people would be disinclined to vote for him after hearing from her than would be inclined to vote for him – only one percent) while Bill Clinton was a huge positive for Hillary.
Somehow I find that hard to believe.
Dec 11, 2007 08:03 PM
Hillary should NEVER have let a pollster run the campaign — no matter how awesome Mark Penn is and is one of the damn best.
BTW, the last pollster to run a presidential campaign — Bob Teeter for 1st George Bush in 1992. It was a bloody disaster just for that reason.
CADTS, I used to work with Pat Caddell.
How can you possibly say that? …
I wonder if you might move your discussion to today’s thread.
CADTS, I used to work with Pat Caddell.
How can you possibly say that? …
I wonder if you might move your discussion to today’s thread.
Incidentally, NWN passed 46,000 comments sometime in the past week.