Hillary Clinton’s brand new “New Beginning” theme ad.
** NATIONAL REVIEW ENDORSES MITT ROMNEY FOR PRESIDENT. The National Review magazine, the conventional conservative bulwark, this afternoon endorsed Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. This makes sense, since Romney is the favorite of the most of the conservative punditocracy and blogosphere which hailed his religion speech last week, which did not do nearly so well as they said at the time.
So sayeth the editors: Our guiding principle has always been to select the most conservative viable candidate. In our judgment, that candidate is Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts. Unlike some other candidates in the race, Romney is a full-spectrum conservative: a supporter of free-market economics and limited government, moral causes such as the right to life and the preservation of marriage, and a foreign policy based on the national interest. While he has not talked much about the importance of resisting ethnic balkanization — none of the major candidates has — he supports enforcing the immigration laws and opposes amnesty. Those are important steps in the right direction.
Uniting the conservative coalition is not enough to win a presidential election, but it is a prerequisite for building on that coalition. Rudolph Giuliani did extraordinary work as mayor of New York and was inspirational on 9/11. But he and Mike Huckabee would pull apart the coalition from opposite ends: Giuliani alienating the social conservatives, and Huckabee the economic (and foreign-policy) conservatives. A Republican party that abandoned either limited government or moral standards would be much diminished in the service it could give the country.
** ANOTHER CLINTON CAMPAIGN STRATEGY MEMO ON HOW VERY WELL HILLARY IS REALLY DOING. With Hillary Clinton in big trouble now in all the early primary and caucus states, her chief strategist, Mark Penn, has issued another of his famous memos about how well she is doing. Penn is the principal author of the inevitable Hillary theme, which I’ve always pointed out ain’t necessarily so.
In today’s message, he says: The ABC/Washington Post poll shows that there has been a big rise in concern about the economy (44% now say it is one of the two most important issues, up from 29% last month) and healthcare (27% say it is one of the two most important issues, up from 22% last month). Concern about the war is down from 45% to 37%, but the Iraq war remains the number two issue, and Hillary Clinton has a plan to end the war quickly and responsibly, and is the candidate voters trust most on Iraq (51%, compared with 26% or less for Obama and Edwards).
But the voters are also showing their concern about healthcare and the economy and these are issues where Hillary particularly shines with the voters. In the ABC/Washington Post poll, 60% said they trust Hillary Clinton most on healthcare, compared with 16% or less for Edwards and Obama, and 58% said they trust Hillary most on the economy, compared with 18% or less for Edwards and Obama. As voters focus on the growing importance of these issues, it in fact works to Hillary’s advantage because those are issues where they see her as a very strong and experienced leader.
** TOM HAYDEN IS 68 TODAY. The famed anti-Vietnam War leader who served nearly 20 years in the California Legislature and was a longtime left-liberal power broker turned 68 today. NWN recalls his 40th birthday. It was a dark and stormy night on the West Side of Los Angeles. The party was at famed Oz warbler Helen Reddy and producer Jeff Wald’s house. (Wald once offered Hayden his Rolls Royce, which Hayden, as one might suspect, turned down.) Wald had hired dwarves to portray Irish leprechauns, befitting Hayden’s determinedly Irish background. The guest list included Jerry Brown, Cesar Chavez, Gray Davis, Steven Spielberg, and the Eagles. The rest of the story is held for … future development.
** HUCKABEE UP BIG IN IOWA OVER ROMNEY, NOBODY ELSE IN DOUBLE DIGITS. A new Iowa poll shows Mike Huckabee with a huge lead in the Republican caucus race over Mitt Romney, 39% to 23%. Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are tied for a very distant third at 8%.
So if anyone of you wonders why I’m talking about Huckabee and Romney most of the time …
** WESTLY, BACK FROM KEYNOTING BARCELONA TECH CONFERENCE, TALKS TO “GENERATION OBAMA” CONCERTGOERS. Former state Controller Steve Westly, the ex-eBay honcho now a greentech venture capitalist, talked to some 5000 attendees at yesterday’s “Generation Obama” concert with much of young Hollywood in LA. Westly, the California co-chairman of the Obama campaign who ran a near-miss campaign for last year’s Democratic gubernatorial nomination, is part of Barack Obama’s national finance and strategy groups.
He was not long back from a big Barcelona conference on climate change and greentech investing, where he delivered a keynote speech on new energy alternatives and brought a few of his Silicon Valley venture capital colleagues for a forum on developing a risk capital culture in Spain. Westly sounds equally excited about the prospects for his candidate for president and for new energy alternatives, where he is personally especially involved in new vehicles, solar power, and cellulosic ethanol.
** BROWN CONFISCATES GUNS FROM FELONS. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown joined with LA Police Chief William Bratton yesterday to announce the seizure of 541 handguns, rifles and assault weapons during a statewide crackdown on 1,000 dangerous individuals barred from firearms possession because of violent felony convictions.
“During this statewide crackdown, Department of Justice agents investigated 1,000 of the most dangerous cases in the state’s firearms database,” Brown said. “The Department of Justice joined with local law enforcement to disarm hundreds of individuals—felons, domestic violence perpetrators, and people committed to mental health facilities—that should have relinquished their weapons.”
Department of Justice agents used a state database, known as the Armed and Prohibited Persons System, to identify persons who lawfully acquired firearms in the past but became barred from possession due to a subsequent felony conviction. The database, which currently has 9,000 cases, could eventually expand to include 60,000 individuals as new offender records are added to the system.
Brown had previously explained that he wants to take guns out of the hands of people with criminal backgrounds. This is part of what Brown talked about in his campaign last year, a strike force approach utilizing the resources of the attorney general’s office to go after a variety of activities.
** HILLARY REGROUPS WITH “NEW BEGINNING” TV AD. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is in trouble. Her subtext of inevitability, never real, is belatedly being jettisoned by even the most credulous reporters. Her theme of having the experience to make change work is under serious question. Her attacks on her rising rival Barack Obama aren’t very effective.
What to do? Roll out a new advertising theme. Chart a new beginning with a theme of “New Beginnings.”
In this ad, full of sunny vistas filled with appropriate Americans, all of it scored with cinematically uplifting music, Clinton calls for new beginnings on health care, education, and Iraq, running past themes and slogans through a media blender. It’s hard to see this ad doing much for her, although it may make her supporters feel better about the campaign.
One response to the situation that may be more effective is this. Former President Bill Clinton is back in Iowa again, on a two-day tour to try to boost her numbers there again.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton herself is in California again today. Yesterday she raised money in private Southern California events. Today she is in Northern California, where she will hold a “Conversation with Warren Buffett” at the San Francisco Hilton. This event, featuring the world renowned investor, sounds more like a general election event to me.
Last night, her California campaign, which has done an impressive job of organizing, held 300 house parties. But all that spade work will be for naught if Hillary can’t figure out how to effectively contest the messaging, thematics, and atmospherics of Barack Obama.
** OBAMA TAKES LEAD IN SOUTH CAROLINA POLL. In this new poll of the South Carolina Democratic primary, taken by Insider Advantage, Barack Obama has taken the lead over Hillary Clinton.
It’s Obama 28%, Clinton 22%, John Edwards 16%, and Joe Biden 10%. The poll was conducted over the weekend, during the run-up to and day of the huge Obama rally in Columbia, South Carolina with Oprah Winfrey.
** RUSSIA’S NEXT PRIME MINISTER? VLADIMIR PUTIN. Yesterday, as reported on NWN, President Vladimir Putin anointed his former chief of staff, Dmitry Medvedev, as United Russia’s candidate in next March’s presidential election. Putin is term limited by Russia’s constitution, though the party he heads won a super-majority in the parliament this month such that they could change it.
Mitt Romney’s brand new attack ad against Mike Huckabee.
** ROMNEY GOES NEGATIVE. As forecast on NWN, ah, a day ago, Mitt Romney has gone negative on Mike Huckabee. Here’s the brand new attack ad.
It tries to position the two men as equivalent in their family values and social conservatism, without mentioning Romney’s fairly recent social liberalism, then goes after Huckabee for being soft on “illegal aliens.” Specifically, it scores Huckabee for, as governor of Arkansas, supporting in-state tuition rates for illegal immigrant children and for backing state college scholarships for illegal immigrants.
It may chip away some at Huckabee. But it suggests obvious rejoinders, especially to the premise that they are otherwise equivalent candidates for social conservatives.
Mike Huckabee’s new border security ad.
** HUCKABEE ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. Perhaps anticipating Mitt Romney going up with attacks ads against him, as he has just done, Mike Huckabee is running this ad in Iowa and elsewhere on illegal immigration. In it, he pledges a strong effort to secure America’s borders, including the building of the controversial border fence between the US and Mexico.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil are trading up in the $89 to $90 per barrel range.
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Good stuff, Mr. B…very good stuff.
Back to the stove I go…
Good stuff, Mr. B…very good stuff.
Back to the stove I go…
I don’t like any of these ads.
I don’t like any of these ads.
So, Obama is first in Iowa, close in New Hampshire, first in South Carolina, closing in Nevada. If that doesn’t say “Inevitable,” I don’t know what does.
Hillary can still win, Edwards is still there.
Hillary can still win, Edwards is still there.
BC will figure something out. Despite the trendlines, this thing is not in the bag for Obama.
Nobody’s inevitable in either race. Nobody ever has been.
>Capitol Boy :
So, Obama is first in Iowa, close in New Hampshire, first in South Carolina, closing in Nevada. If that doesn’t say “Inevitable,” I don’t know what does.
Dec 11, 2007 08:59 AM
I think Huckabee’s and Romney’s are pretty good.
>Jonas Blane :
I don’t like any of these ads.
Dec 11, 2007 08:56 AM
Thanks, Solon! What are you cooking?
>Sacramento Solon :
Good stuff, Mr. B…very good stuff.
Back to the stove I go…
Dec 11, 2007 08:47 AM
Thanks, Solon! What are you cooking?
>Sacramento Solon :
Good stuff, Mr. B…very good stuff.
Back to the stove I go…
Dec 11, 2007 08:47 AM
Bill Bradley :
Thanks, Solon! What are you cooking?
I think it is telling that Romney picked that line of attack for his first negative ad against Huckabee. It tells you a lot about the GOP base vote in Iowa since I’m sure Mitt’s people decided this would be the best zinger and not Wayne Dumond.
I heard Craig Crawford of CQ on Stephanie Miller’s radio show this morning. A month ago, he said, he would have bet a month’s salary that Hillary would be the nominee. Now he’s only wagering a week’s!
Why is Giuliani slumping? There have only been a few bad stories for him. Is that it?
Well, they’ve been pretty bad. Bernie Kerik, city resources for his mistress, etc. But he can still win the nomination.
Well, they’ve been pretty bad. Bernie Kerik, city resources for his mistress, etc. But he can still win the nomination.
He’s just part of that permanent Beltway blather chorus that gets it wrong all the time.
>richard locicero :
I heard Craig Crawford of CQ on Stephanie Miller’s radio show this morning. A month ago, he said, he would have bet a month’s salary that Hillary would be the nominee. Now he’s only wagering a week’s!
Dec 11, 2007 09:36 AM
Well, as I was telling our friend Marc Cooper last year, illegal immigration is a very big issue with Republicans (not to mention Americans) pretty much … everywhere.
Problem for Romney is he is real vulnerable there.
>richard locicero :
I think it is telling that Romney picked that line of attack for his first negative ad against Huckabee. It tells you a lot about the GOP base vote in Iowa since I’m sure Mitt’s people decided this would be the best zinger and not Wayne Dumond.
Dec 11, 2007 09:34 AM
That certainly gets you a few mitzvahs!
>Sacramento Solon :
Bill Bradley :
Thanks, Solon! What are you cooking?
Having the Huckster and Willard bring up each others past on illegal immigration is like the pot calling the kettle black.
They’re both running on the wrong ticket and their records prove it beyond any reasonable debate.
Having the Huckster and Willard bring up each others past on illegal immigration is like the pot calling the kettle black.
They’re both running on the wrong ticket and their records prove it beyond any reasonable debate.
Of those of you who would attempt to suggest that illegal immigration is a “GOP base vote”, I’ld like to point out that the state of New York was opposed to driver licenses for aliens to the tune of 77%.
Since children who are not liberal need a heart but, adults not conservative need a brain it appears reality can be claimed if only temporarily.
It’s pretty obvious that most Americans are against illegal immigration.
Yet … illegal immigrants are keys to how the economy currently works.
And I am quite positive that there is no stomach for the deportations of millions.
The solution lies somewhere in between the two extremes.
As usual.
This is one LAME-O ad for Hill. Bill must be furious at this shit.
Hillary’s ad: a desperate attempt at slowing her free-fall. It doesn’t gain her altitude. Bill can get her numbers up, but I don’t think she can have Bill save her bacon while she continues to attack Obama’s lack of experience.
Romney’s ad: while the structure is clever, I don’t think evangelicals are going to buy that Romney and Huckabee are the same (except on immigration). I do think immigration is a good attack point, but Romney seems to be throwing stones from a glass house.
Huckabee’s ad: he’s telling Republicans what they WANT to hear, but I don’t know if they will believe him. Huckabee is talking directly to the camera for half the ad, which sets it apart from the other two. I think voters in Iowa are probably already sick of hearing most of the voice-over talent used in political ads.
I thought Jerry Brown was a criminal luvvin socialist wimp. lol
I thought Jerry Brown was a criminal luvvin socialist wimp. lol
Oh, but he is.
No question that that ad is sucking air.
>Len :
This is one LAME-O ad for Hill. Bill must be furious at this shit.
Dec 11, 2007 11:27 AM
Just watched all three ads and couldn’t help but recalling what I scribed the other evening…come this time next year one of these folks will be called president-elect (and that means all, not just Mitt, Huck, Hillary)…now, where did I leave my whiskey???
We deserve better. Yes, we do.
I have too many numbers rattling around my head, but one I recall is that maybe half of Hillary’s backing is due to Bill.
But Bill ain’t running …
>Brasky :
Hillary’s ad: a desperate attempt at slowing her free-fall. It doesn’t gain her altitude. Bill can get her numbers up, but I don’t think she can have Bill save her bacon while she continues to attack Obama’s lack of experience.
Of course they are not equivalent. One really is a consistent social conservative. The other was more like Arnold on social issues …
>Romney’s ad: while the structure is clever, I don’t think evangelicals are going to buy that Romney and Huckabee are the same (except on immigration). I do think immigration is a good attack point, but Romney seems to be throwing stones from a glass house.
You know, most of the candidates are pandering to this or that constituency on illegal immigration.
Both the left and the right want to hear what is essentially, a bunch of crap, just different versions of crap.
>Huckabee’s ad: he’s telling Republicans what they WANT to hear, but I don’t know if they will believe him. Huckabee is talking directly to the camera for half the ad, which sets it apart from the other two. I think voters in Iowa are probably already sick of hearing most of the voice-over talent used in political ads.
Dec 11, 2007 12:09 PM
I have too many numbers rattling around my head, but one I recall is that maybe half of Hillary’s backing is due to Bill.
But Bill ain’t running …
>Brasky :
Hillary’s ad: a desperate attempt at slowing her free-fall. It doesn’t gain her altitude. Bill can get her numbers up, but I don’t think she can have Bill save her bacon while she continues to attack Obama’s lack of experience.
Of course they are not equivalent. One really is a consistent social conservative. The other was more like Arnold on social issues …
>Romney’s ad: while the structure is clever, I don’t think evangelicals are going to buy that Romney and Huckabee are the same (except on immigration). I do think immigration is a good attack point, but Romney seems to be throwing stones from a glass house.
You know, most of the candidates are pandering to this or that constituency on illegal immigration.
Both the left and the right want to hear what is essentially, a bunch of crap, just different versions of crap.
>Huckabee’s ad: he’s telling Republicans what they WANT to hear, but I don’t know if they will believe him. Huckabee is talking directly to the camera for half the ad, which sets it apart from the other two. I think voters in Iowa are probably already sick of hearing most of the voice-over talent used in political ads.
Dec 11, 2007 12:09 PM
Mrs. Clinton’s TV ad is atrocious. The stories of pitched battles in her campaign are true. She projects no agenda other than generic Democratic ambition.
Mrs. Clinton’s TV ad is atrocious. The stories of pitched battles in her campaign are true. She projects no agenda other than generic Democratic ambition.
Sorry for the double posting.
Sorry for the double posting.
Sorry for the double posting.
“I have too many numbers rattling around my head, but one I recall is that maybe half of Hillary’s backing is due to Bill.”
Holy crap. Maybe the other half was “inevitability”…
I agree with Solon–we, and the country, deserve better. What’s wrong with the political process that gives us so many bad choices and so few good ones? If there are any truly good ones.
And yet, these are very interesting choices …
Though at the moment I’m thinking back to Hayden’s birthday party.
Much of the other half is Helen “I Am Woman” Reddy.
>Brasky :
“I have too many numbers rattling around my head, but one I recall is that maybe half of Hillary’s backing is due to Bill.”
Holy crap. Maybe the other half was “inevitability”…
Dec 11, 2007 01:40 PM
Much of the other half is Helen “I Am Woman” Reddy.
>Brasky :
“I have too many numbers rattling around my head, but one I recall is that maybe half of Hillary’s backing is due to Bill.”
Holy crap. Maybe the other half was “inevitability”…
Dec 11, 2007 01:40 PM
I’ve seen a lot worse TV ads.
>Jonathan Hemlock :
Mrs. Clinton’s TV ad is atrocious. The stories of pitched battles in her campaign are true. She projects no agenda other than generic Democratic ambition.
Dec 11, 2007 01:11 PM
Bill, given your comments yesterday in re Edwards & his Iowa supporters sounds like they likely will migrate to Obama if they have to line up behind a 2nd choice during “realignment” per the rules of the for Democrats. That could spell trouble for Clinton–maybe run second but faced with recovering from a large Obama win. And New Hampshire only 5 days later.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus#Democratic_Party_process
You have partied with rock bands and I have parties for screaming 10 year olds…Life is not fair!
“Much of the other half is Helen “I Am Woman” Reddy.”
How many of those are Oprah Book Club members?
To further contrast the entertaining world of presidential politics, how are those “imminent” deals on water and health care coming in Sacramento?
As an interesting contrast to Hillary’s latest ad, here’s Bill Clinton’s “Journey” ad from 1992:
http://tinyurl.com/2yntsq
As an interesting contrast to Hillary’s latest ad, here’s Bill Clinton’s “Journey” ad from 1992:
http://tinyurl.com/2yntsq