Charlie Wilson’s War is the strangely true story of the reprobate Texas
Democrat congressman who helped bring down the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.
** MELTING, SURGING. Hillary Clinton’s leads in the four earliest states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina — are all now evaporating. I’ve previously reported on Barack Obama’s Iowa lead in most of the new polls, his pulling to within six points of Hillary in New Hampshire, and erasing her lead in South Carolina to a statistical dead heat.
Now there’s a set of Mason-Dixon polls for MSNBC confirming the trend in all those states, and extending it now to Nevada. Clinton has long held a big lead in Nevada, but in this new poll, it’s down to 34% to 26%. As I’ve pointed out all along from experience, the Silver State is a place where things can turn on a dime.
The polls do have Hillary on top by a hair in Iowa, by only three points in New Hampshire, the closest ever, and a couple of points in South Carolina.
In South Carolina today, Obama’s rally with Oprah Winfrey drew over 30,000 people. In Des Moines yesterday, they drew 19,000.
On the Republican side, the Mike Huckabee surge continues. And Mitt Romney is seeing his lead in New Hampshire, once seemingly impregnable, as I mentioned it would be the other day, slipping in this new poll.
Much more about all this tomorrow …
** A STRANGE BUT TRUE WAR. Charlie Wilson’s War looks like an interesting movie. It’s certainly based on an interesting, well-reported book, by the late 60 Minutes producer George Crile.
The movie, written by West Wing creator Aaron Sorkin and directed by Mike Nichols, stars Tom Hanks as the hawkish Texas Democrat congressman who used his key appropriations role in the House to push big funding for the Afghan rebels fighting the invading Soviets in the 1980s. Think of Lloyd Bentsen, as a party animal. Julia Roberts plays Joanne Herring, the glamorous and very rich right-wing Texas socialite who turned Wilson on to the Afghan cause and the merits of her pal General Zia, Pakistan’s dictator. The always good Philip Seymour Hoffman plays CIA officer Gust Avrokotos.
The book, which is a terrific read, doesn’t focus on Ronald Reagan, who of course supported at least the thrust of what Wilson was doing. Without Wilson’s efforts, the anti-Soviet effort in Afghanistan would not have gotten the big funding it did from the Democratic Congress.
What’s the result? The fall of the Soviet Union. And the rise of Islamic jihadists. Well, one out of two ain’t bad.
The movie was to open on Christmas Day. Now it’s moved up to December 21st. I haven’t seen it yet, but I’ll see it soon.
** HUCKABEE AND NEW REPUBLICAN DYNAMICS. Well, well, well. Mike Huckabee has a huge lead in the new Newsweek poll of the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, 39% to 22% over Mitt Romney. The other candidates are way back, at 10% and less.
My sources say that not only is former Arkansas Governor Huckabee surging throughout the South, as previously reported here, and Romney fading, but Romney also has significant problems in New Hampshire, where he’s long led. We may even find out who was behind those notorious Mormon-baiting anti-Romney phone calls.
Despite the rapturous coverage of Romney’s speech on religion among some conservative Washington pundits and right-wing voices in the blogosphere, it doesn’t seem to be working.
Huckabee is surviving, and thriving, despite his Kevin Dumond problem and his ignorance of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. Now he has a new revelation to deal with. When he ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate in 1992, he answered an Associated Press questionnaire in which he replied to queries on AIDS by calling for a quarantine of its victims and suggesting that celebrities like Madonna fund AIDS research rather than the federal government. Whoops! It’ll be interesting to see how he spins that one.
** HILLARY, OBAMA, AND DUELING SUPERSTARS. (OPRAH, OPRAH, OPRAH.) That same Newsweek poll shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton among likely participants in the Iowa Democratic caucuses by a margin of 35% to 26%. John Edwards is back at 18%.
This weekend, of course, is the big Oprah-Obama tour of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The dynamic duo are hitting Des Moines and Cedar Rapids today.
Hillary is trying to counter-program by touring Iowa today with daughter Chelsea and mother Dorothy Rodham. And former President Bill is dispatched to South Carolina.
It’s called turning into the wave. The good ship Hillary won’t capsize, but it will be swept backward.
Meanwhile, trying to retain relevance in what is increasingly a two-person race, Edwards’ campaign put out an internal poll showing Obama running third in Iowa. (Right.) And sponsored a media conference call in which the campaign’s African American supporters criticized Oprah for campaigning for Obama but not touring to talk about black poverty.
It’s the great misfortune of Edwards, who is a quality candidate, that he’s running in a year in which two superstars are making a race of it.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil closed at $88.28 per barrel on Friday. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum.
Read 
| Comments (0) |
The movie looks really cool.
The movie looks really cool.
Tom Hanks plays a playboy congressman? I’m not too sure about that one.
What’s the color of that jacket Oprah’s wearing?
What’s the color of that jacket Oprah’s wearing?
It looks like a pale lavender suede.
He’s a good comic actor.
>Len :
Tom Hanks plays a playboy congressman? I’m not too sure about that one.
Dec 8, 2007 01:08 PM
Fingers crossed.
>Jonas Blane :
The movie looks really cool.
Dec 8, 2007 01:01 PM
Len, did you ever see the movie “Volunteers”? Where Tom plays a playboy in the Peace corps? Sure he can do it!
My worry is that Aaron Sorkin is involved. That is a real problem for me as I remember the “American President” and numerous episodes of “West Wing” and god help us if he tries to be funny – see “Sportsnight” and “Studio 360.”
Len, did you ever see the movie “Volunteers”? Where Tom plays a playboy in the Peace corps? Sure he can do it!
My worry is that Aaron Sorkin is involved. That is a real problem for me as I remember the “American President” and numerous episodes of “West Wing” and god help us if he tries to be funny – see “Sportsnight” and “Studio 360.”
I didn’t know Oprah was so political in her speech.
I loved the “American President”.
The American President is a terrific movie.
She gave a good talk.
>Ann :
I didn’t know Oprah was so political in her speech.
Dec 8, 2007 03:15 PM
While Huck and Rudy take a pounding from the media and Mitt sags under the Mormon burden, are McCain or Thompson gaining any ground? Any insights out there?
While Huck and Rudy take a pounding from the media and Mitt sags under the Mormon burden, are McCain or Thompson gaining any ground? Any insights out there?
I’d like to see a debate among the celebrity actor backers: Oprah vs Chuck Norris vs Sean Penn (Kucinich).
Don’t Mitt and Rudy have any stars backing them yet? Fred Thompson could fill in for himself in such a debate.
Thompson, as I’ve noted, has actually dropped in the polls. He’s faded to nothing in New Hampshire and is especially hurt by Huckabee in the South.
McCain has an opportunity in New Hampshire.
Robert Duvall and Ron Silver are for Giuliani.
>Dr. Sam Loomis :
I’d like to see a debate among the celebrity actor backers: Oprah vs Chuck Norris vs Sean Penn (Kucinich).
Don’t Mitt and Rudy have any stars backing them yet? Fred Thompson could fill in for himself in such a debate.
Dec 9, 2007 07:38 AM
Given Huckabee’s quotes on AIDS and gays, how long before “Democrats for Huckabee” groups start popping up? Besides outright racism, I can’t think of better issues to disqualify a Republican with swing voters who value tolerance…
Our Republicans for Hillary krewe is getting worried.
With Dungeness crab down to $3.99/lb, its the crab, artichoke and sourdough bread Northern California delight tonight. Go with a sauvignon blanc instead of a chardonnay if you can. The Kids will use Myer lemons grown in our yard, a pleasure that can’t crack through Jonas Blade’s East Coast permafrost.
KK,
What time will we be dining?
KK,
What time will we be dining?
Your hoped for scenario is looking a tad dicey, KK.
>Kandy Kid :
Given Huckabee’s quotes on AIDS and gays, how long before “Democrats for Huckabee” groups start popping up? Besides outright racism, I can’t think of better issues to disqualify a Republican with swing voters who value tolerance…
Our Republicans for Hillary krewe is getting worried.
Any other movies look good out there?
California politics is dead.
TWIML points out that Huckabee’s comments on AIDS and gays strengthens him among core Republican voters. As KK says, it doesn’t help him with a broader audience, but this is the primary season, not the general election.
TWIML points out that Huckabee’s comments on AIDS and gays strengthens him among core Republican voters. As KK says, it doesn’t help him with a broader audience, but this is the primary season, not the general election.
Where isn’t Mrs. Clinton losing her lead?
How many trees died to assert her faux inevitability?
Where isn’t Mrs. Clinton losing her lead?
How many trees died to assert her faux inevitability?
Sorry for the double -posting.
Sorry for the double -posting.
Sorry for the double -posting.
Sorry for the double -posting.
Hillary still has good leads in a number of the later states.
TWIML?
>larry :
TWIML points out that Huckabee’s comments on AIDS and gays strengthens him among core Republican voters. As KK says, it doesn’t help him with a broader audience, but this is the primary season, not the general election.
Dec 9, 2007 01:21 PM
I prefer to think of it as slow.
>Capitol Boy :
California politics is dead.
Dec 9, 2007 12:09 PM
“(Huckabee) has a new revelation to deal with.”
If you want to torpedo Huckabee, you have to start peeling-away his nice-guy image first, then the other attacks can take effect. This should be done before he gets any more media exposure and his narrative is ingrained in the public consciousness.
Find some old interns or staffers from the Arkansas days and paint him as a hot-head opportunist – then all this other stuff will find a soft spot to germinate. This doesn’t need to be a devastating attack – small humorous stories would actually be most effective.
Just my tactical observation.
“(Huckabee) has a new revelation to deal with.”
If you want to torpedo Huckabee, you have to start peeling-away his nice-guy image first, then the other attacks can take effect. This should be done before he gets any more media exposure and his narrative is ingrained in the public consciousness.
Find some old interns or staffers from the Arkansas days and paint him as a hot-head opportunist – then all this other stuff will find a soft spot to germinate. This doesn’t need to be a devastating attack – small humorous stories would actually be most effective.
Just my tactical observation.
Bill–TWIML = The Woman In My Life. I thought I had explained that earlier.
No, Hillary can’t be tanking.
It’s not panic time for the Clinton campaign.
Sorry. I have a ton of acronyms to remember.
>larry :
Bill–TWIML = The Woman In My Life. I thought I had explained that earlier.
Dec 9, 2007 06:03 PM
Sorry. I have a ton of acronyms to remember.
>larry :
Bill–TWIML = The Woman In My Life. I thought I had explained that earlier.
Dec 9, 2007 06:03 PM
That’s a good idea. His advantage is he’s in a multi-candidate race.
>Brasky :
“(Huckabee) has a new revelation to deal with.”
If you want to torpedo Huckabee, you have to start peeling-away his nice-guy image first, then the other attacks can take effect. This should be done before he gets any more media exposure and his narrative is ingrained in the public consciousness.
California is all about the same deadlocks, initiatives, boring personalities and fights.
Incidentally, NWN passed 46,000 comments sometime in the past week.