November 10th, 2007

Weekend Edition, With Updates


Lost in all the attention here to the 90th anniversary of the
Russian Revolution was the 10th anniversary of the classic Starship Troopers.

** PAKISTAN CRISIS: MUSHARRAF SWITCHES RHETORICAL GEARS. President Pervez Musharraf is back to a January election, after first postponing it indefinitely, then resetting it to February. But he won’t commit to an end to his martial law rule. And the election would be held under as yet undisclosed strictures. Once the nation’s supreme court, half of which he’s arrested, certifies his own election as president.

It was because the court seemed likely to invalidate Musharraf’s election that he made his various anti-democratic moves in the first place.

He says now he will step down as army chief of staff. Once his election as president is certified. Musharraf has been promising for months to vacate the army post.

** NORMAN MAILER, ONE OF THE LAST “LITERARY LIONS,” PASSES. One of America’s old-style literary lions, Norman Mailer, has passed away at the age of 84, of acute renal failure in New York. Pompous, sexist, endlessly self-aggrandizing to a fault, yet a self-styled man of the left, Mailer was also a massive talent who could be surprisingly charming in person. He was one of the last of the novelists who really counted, in the days before electronic media totally overwhelmed the romantic notion of “The Great American Novel.” Which he proclaimed that he would write, though he never actually did.

Mailer achieved fame at a very early age, with “The Naked And The Dead,” based on his experiences as a combat infantryman in World War II. He wrote far more books than I’ll be mentioning on a holiday weekend, with his particular heyday being in the 1960s, when his work — both fiction and journalistic — appears in retrospect to have been omnipresent. He heralded the glitzy opening of the 1960s with his essay on John F. Kennedy, “Superman Comes To The Supermarket,” and limned its pseudo-apocalpytic climax with his Vietnam War protest journalism, in book form as “Armies Of The Night” and “Miami And The Siege Of Chicago.”

Of the many Mailer books I read, most which I’ve forgotten, my favorite would probably be “Harlot’s Ghost,” his early ’90s novel on the CIA. I recall it being about 1500 pages long, and somewhat surprisingly sympathetic to the spy agency. Lacking some of the bombast of his other work, it nonetheless was overstuffed.

Today, of course, no one has time to read such a long book, and most have no time for books at all. Mailer was a notorious technophobe, eschewing not only the computer but the typewriter, writing on a yellow legal pad. A great character of a bygone era.

** PAKISTAN CRISIS. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was released from house arrest but prevented from visiting the country’s ousted supreme court chief justice. President Pervez Musharraf’s mouthpiece says he will restore normal democratic rights in a month. He’s also said, once again, that he will resign as army chief of staff. Meanwhile, thousands of Bhutto’s key supporters remain jailed.

** GIULIANI IN NEVADA CALLS KERIK INDICTMENT “VERY SERIOUS, VERY SAD.” Campaigning yesterday in Nevada, where he has led in various polls, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani called the indictment of his former business partner and longtime associate, ex-New York Police Commissioner Bernie Kerik, on multiple federal corruption charges, “very serious and very sad.” Kerik was pushed successfully by Giuliani for appointment by President Bush to be the US secretary of homeland security. Then charges emerged of Kerik’s longtime ties to Mafia figures, his use of a luxury apartment donated for 9/11 rescue workers as “love shack” with a prominent conservative publisher, his employment of an illegal nanny, and on and on. His appointment to the Bush Cabinet was rescinded before the Senate could vote him down.

This is a deeply serious problem for Giuliani’s candidacy, since he is the one who elevated Kerik, a New York cop when he met him, first to the position of the mayor’s driver and bodyguard, then to the posts of New York corrections commissioner and New York police commissioner. Those two posts placed Kerik, respectively, in charge of New York’s extensive jail system and of the New York Police Department. After Giuliani left office following his star turn on 9/11, Kerik became his business partner in Giuliani’s highly lucrative consulting empire.

** GEORGIA CRISIS. After the former Soviet republic of Georgia fell into shambles with a spectacular governmental crackdown on mass protests — which happened to coincide with the 90th anniversary of the Russian Revolution — President Mikhail Saakashvili declared a state of emergency. Today he said it will continue indefinitely, though the pro-US politician is coming under heavy international pressure to back down. The opposition wants him to resign. He has countered by calling a presidential election, for an as yet undisclosed date in January.

** CAL VS. USC. Little more than a month ago, this college football rivalry, which kicks off again at 5 PM Saturday night in Berkeley, was shaping up as a possible regular season national title game. USC was number one in the country, Cal was ascending to number two. Then both teams went into a tailspin, though both are still nationally ranked.

So now the game is merely to decide the best team in California. And who gets into a better bowl game. Should still be a good battle, although one redolent with what might have been.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil closed up at $96.32 per barrel on Friday. Energy markets are closed for the weekend.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.


As we head into Veterans Day weekend, is Hillary Clinton’s candidacy fading?

** QUICK HITS. NWN hears that Hillary Clinton is getting some very unwelcome news from New Hampshire primary pollingGovernor Arnold Schwarzenegger is getting closer to a deal with Democratic legislative leaders on a comprehensive health care package, upping his proposed 4% tax, er, fee, on businesses to 5.5%. The health care issue has lost its fizz, but it could get exciting again if folks try to sell a ballot box health care tax hike next year in the midst of a recession. … Pakistan Crisis: After placing her under house arrest to prevent her from attending a mass rally protesting President Pervez Musharraf’s martial law regime, Musharraf has freed former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto following protests from many foreign government. Although Musharraf, who maintains a shaky hold on the Islamic world’s only nuclear arsenal, says he’s taking these steps to hold off the jihadists, the thousands he’s had arrested are primarily secular moderates.

** THE “INEVITABLE” HILLARY. As we head into Veterans Day weekend, is Hillary Clinton’s frontrunning Democratic presidential candidacy fading?

Despite the repeated intervention of her popular husband, former President Bill Clinton, she’s back into a dead heat in Iowa. Now her trendline in New Hampshire, which she’s always viewed as her firewall against a possible loss in Iowa, appears to be heading down.

Clearly her performance in last week’s debate, which was actually pretty strong till her gaffe at the end on drivers license for illegal immigrants, has changed the dynamics.

Actually, her performance in the debate a month before that was problematic for her as well, as I wrote at the time. It showcased a pattern of slipping questions and a classic frontrunner smugness.

It was only because her campaign so cleverly spun the third quarter fundraising results — misleading people, including me, into thinking she had done much less well than she had — that the problems exposed in that debate performance did not establish a new narrative for the campaign.

After first incongruously seeking to recoup from last week’s debate by complaining that the men were ganging up on her, Clinton is now saying she’s fine with all that, as seen in the video above. But she doesn’t seem very convincing.

The truth is that her opponents weren’t her problem in last week’s debate. She created her own problems, largely in how she handled questions from the aggressive Tim Russert. While John Edwards did the best, he didn’t cause many problems for her. Nor did Barack Obama, who was definitely off his game.

It was actually Chris Dodd who forcefully objected to Clinton’s apparently changing views on the drivers license question. Only then did Edwards make his move.

** SCHWARZENEGGER PROCLAIMS STATE OF EMERGENCY ON SAN FRANCISCO BAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger this morning toured an oil spill on San Francisco Bay caused Wednesday when a ship managed to run into the Bay Bridge.

At first, the US Coast Guard reported that only 140 gallons of fuel oil had been released in the accident. That’s since turned out to be wildly wrong. The real number is more like 58,000 gallons of fuel oil.

“I have signed an emergency proclamation, so all the state’s resources can be coordinated to address this oil spill,” said Schwarzenegger in a statement. “I have also directed my Office of Spill Prevention and Response to work with the ship owner and federal and local authorities to bring in whatever resources are needed to clean this up immediately. And to make sure there is no bureaucratic delay, I have told OSPR to use the state’s Response Trust Fund to throw everything we possibly can at this without wasting a minute of time.”

Schwarzenegger’s move directs the Office of Emergency Services to use its personnel and equipment to provide assistance to the affected local governments. The state is already using skimmers to gather up the oil and has deployed 18,000 feet of boom around the Bay Area to protect beaches and wildlife. State aircraft are tracking the movement of the oil spill.


Pakistani lawyers continue their protest against President Pervez Musharraf and his martial law rule as the crisis in the world’s only Islamic nuclear power deepens.

** BHUTTO UNDER HOUSE ARREST, THOUSANDS OF HER CADRE ROUNDED UP, AS PAKISTAN CRISIS DEEPENS. Although Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf agreed to President Bush’s insistence that he reschedule elections for early next year, the army chief of staff went on to make some other moves not so convivial. He has placed former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto under house arrest and has rounded up at least 5000 of her key followers. All this in apparent attempt to stave off mass demonstrations that Bhutto threatened if Musharraf failed by Friday to come through on his pledge to give up the uniform and govern as a civilian president.

Although Bush reportedly insisted that he do so, it hasn’t happened yet.

** REPUBLICANS TO HOLD SPANISH LANGUAGE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. Although they pulled out of a proposed Spanish language debate earlier in the year, the top Republican presidential candidates have just announced that they will be in Miami on December 9th for a Spanish language debate hosted by Univision.

Only John McCain of the leading candidates had agreed, so the debate languished. Until Fred Thompson, looking to make something happen for his campaign, said yesterday he would be there. Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney then followed suit. This is going to put Republican criticism of the enclave-ization of America in an ironic light.

** SCHWARZENEGGER PROMOTES HEALTH CARE PLAN IN AFTERNOON WEBCAST EVENT. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger continues his drive for a comprehensive health care program with a 2 PM speech to the Latino Coalition for a Healthy California Conference in Los Angeles. The event will be webcast live.

Schwarzenegger argues that health care reform has to get done this year in advance of major budgetary problems for the state next. The question for the stae is whether some of the new revenues developed for health care — from a tobacco tax or lease of the state Lottery — would be better applied to the state’s fiscal problems.

** BROWN URGES CONGRESSIONAL PROTECTION FOR CALIFORNIA CLIMATE LAW. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown is joined by 16 other states in urging Congress to “back California’s fight against global warming” by protecting the state’s landmark 2002 law to curtail tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases from federal preemption.

Arizona, Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington all signed on to Brown’s proposal on behalf of California.

In a letter sent a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Brown urged Congress to “clearly and unambiguously protect the States’ existing authority to set new motor vehicle emission standards under the Clean Air Act.” Brown sent the letter because some key members of Congress, representing auto, oil, and coal interests, are making noises about preempting California law in the course of changing federal fuel economy standards.

“Preemption of state tailpipe greenhouse gas emission standards would be a death blow to California’s pioneering effort to fight global warming,” Brown stated. “Congress should both improve fuel economy standards and back California’s fight against global warming through its tailpipe emissions standards—these goals are complementary.”

Brown told Pelosi — who rose to prominence in his 1976 presidential campaign, after which he made her Northern California Democratic chair — and Nevada’s Reid, who did not support him when Brown won the Silver State in the 1992 presidential race, that the most direct way to protect California’s greenhouse gases would be to adopt the following provision: “Nothing in this title shall be construed to conflict with the authority provided by sections 202 and 209 of the Clean Air Act.”

** FIELD POLL: CALIFORNIANS BACK CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION. A summary of the poll:

“* Three in ten Californians (29%) volunteer global warming as the world’s top environmental problem. Another 28% cite air pollution. No other problem is cited by more than 6%.
* About half of the state’s residents (51%) say they’ve heard a great deal about global warming. Registered voters and those with a post-graduate degree are most likely to be closely attuned to the problem.
* Seven in ten Californians (70%) believe the issue of global warming is extremely or very important to them personally, significantly higher than the 52% of Americans who reported this in a national poll earlier this year.
* More Californians than U.S. residents also support taking immediate action on global warming. Statewide, 43% say the problem requires immediate action and another 32% believes some action should be taken. The proportions of U.S. residents who take these positions are 34% and 30%, respectively. In addition, the more a person knows about global warming, the more likely they are to believe immediate action is required.
* More than four in five (82%) say global warming poses a serious threat to California’s overall quality of life. More specifically, about two in three believe global warming poses a very serious threat to the health of residents who live or work in areas where air quality is poor (66%) and nearly as many (63%) say it seriously threatens the snowpack in the Sierras and California’s water supply. Majorities also say global warming poses a very serious threat to farmers in the Central Valley and to California’s coastal communities.
* Despite these apprehensions, greater than eight in ten (85%) agree that the state can reduce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming and, at the same time, expand jobs and economic prosperity, and 90% agree that California can be a leader in new technologies to improve efficiency and reduce global warming.
*Californians believe many entities have the potential to reduce greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. Major corporations, gas and electric utility companies, the general public and the U.S. government are seen as having the potential to do the most.
* There is strong support for the idea of the state government offering incentives like tax credits to businesses and individuals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Greater than eight in ten (81%) favor government tax credits to businesses and 79% support them for individuals.
* The idea of using regulations to require businesses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is initially backed by 81%, although support drops to 61% if such regulations lead to price increases on some goods and services.
* Two in three residents (65%) favor the idea of establishing a “cap and trade” system for businesses, which would set an overall limit on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that companies can release, and create a trading system to allow companies that can’t fully reduce their emissions to pay other companies to cut back more than the required amount.
* Somewhat smaller majorities favor establishing a government-imposed “carbon tax” on businesses and individuals. The idea of establishing such a tax on businesses is initially embraced by 72%, but this declines to 53% if this increases the prices Californians pay for some goods and services. The idea of imposing a carbon tax on individuals is narrowly favored 52% to 43%. However, support grows to 65% if the money from the tax was spent solely on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading in the $95 to $96 per barrel range, down on renewed production in the North Sea.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.


Fundamentalists Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, two days after 9/11, agree that America got “what we deserve.” Yesterday Robertson became Republican presidential frontrunner Rudy Giuliani’s most prominent Christian evangelical backer.

** CLOSE GIULIANI ASSOCIATE BERNIE KERIK INDICTED. Bernie Kerik, Republican presidential frontrunner Rudy Giuliani’s former police driver, bodyguard, New York City Police Commissioner, business partner, and nominee to be US homeland security secretary, has been indicted on various federal corruption charges. This is going to be a big ongoing story.

Not that I have to point that out.

** PAKISTANI CRISIS DEEPENS. Back onto significantly larger questions … Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf told his national security council, in apparent response to the request of President Bush, and demands from others among his own country’s leaders, that he will at last follow through on his longstanding promise to give up his army chief of staff post. Once his country’s supreme court upholds his re-election as president.

Of course, the supreme court was dissolved, most of its members arrested, on his expectation that it would declare his election illegitimate. Precisely because he has not yet resigned as army chief of staff.

Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, complaining that Musharraf has had nearly a thousand of her key party cadre arrested in the past day in advance of her threatened protests against him, challenged him to set a specific date for national elections.

Musharraf cancelled the national parliamentary elections set for January. Then, under pressure from President Bush, issued a vague promise of elections sometime in February.

** SPEAKING OF LACK OF CREDIBILITY … This is the very question that has been posed to this small band of hyperpartisans, by me and others, all year long. With no answers.

Flash Report, Jon Fleischman publisher: What is the Governor going to cut in state spending… now? Perhaps everyone should have been paying closer attention to the message being sent by Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman (a patron of the web site) and his caucus during the Summer’s budget stalemate — that California is heading for a fiscal crisis, and that we needed to cut state spending.

The truth, as distinguished from the non-clever spin, is that Fleischman and his far right hyperpartisan web site advised California’s Republican legislators not to specify any proposed California budget cuts. As a matter of “strategy.”

Fleischman, the longtime flack for indicted Orange County Sheriff Mike Carona, has twice had to publicly apologize for falsely claiming a major scoop first made by NWN. One would think he would have grasped the situation after the first embarrassment.

** ROMNEY AND HUCKABEE IN THE IOWA REPUBLICAN RACE. In the new Zogby telephone poll, Mitt Romney continues to have a strong lead in the Iowa Republican presidential caucus, with Mike Huckabee moving into second. Fading are Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and John McCain.

Here are the numbers: Romney 31%, Huckabee 15%, Giuliani 11%, Thompson 10%, and McCain 8%.

** ARNOLD AND JERRY SUE THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION. As you have gathered from the lengthy AM leader, California sued the Bush Administration this morning following its several years of failing to grant the customary waiver under the Clean Air Act to allow the implementation of the state’s landmark 2002 law to cut tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases. I’ll have more on this event, which I filmed, later. Meanwhile, here is the audio link.

13 other states have joined California as co-interveners in the state’s lawsuit. Between them, the states involved comprise over 40% of American’s population. Brown, in the lawsuit filed today, notes that over 99% of the comments received by the Bush EPA favored California’s position.

Schwarzenegger and Brown put on a friendly, high energy event. The governor and former governor were joined by a host of environmentalists from the American Lung Association, Planning & Conservation League, Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, Clean Cars Campaign, Union of Concerned Scientists, Environment California, and Silicon Valley Leadership Group. (How’d that last one get in there?) NRDC’s Ann Notthoff along with Mary Nichols, who heads the California Air Resources Board under Schwarzenegger after first heading it under Brown, made key presentations.

Knowing that Schwarzenegger was actually, essentially, on time, I found myself jogging up the street to make it on time myself. Only to be nearly run over by the governor’s motorcade. A motorcade from the fabulous Hyatt at Capitol Park to, well, Capitol Park itself, across the street. Fortunately, I noticed the black SUV’s bearing down on my moving position. In time enough to wave to the former action movie superstar. But not in time enough to pull the video camera from my pocket. Oh, well …

** VERY MIXED MESSAGES IN PAKISTAN CRISIS. After a call from President Bush, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf says he will hold elections in February. A mere month after they were scheduled. Bush told him to resign his command of the army. Musharaff hasn’t budged on that yet, though he had been promising for months to do it.

More ominously, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto says that key members of her party, the most organized secular opposition force in the country, are being rounded up and arrested. This may be Musharraf’s move to try to blunt the organization of protests she’s threatened if he doesn’t step down as head of the army by Friday.

** HUCKABEE HEARTS IOWA. Showing some movement in Iowa, where Mitt Romney is first and the other candidates are in big trouble, Republican Mike Huckabee is moving most of his staff to the Hawkeye State and will spend most of his time there between now and the first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses on January 3rd.

** ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER AND JERRY BROWN TO ANNOUNCE CALIFORNIA LAWSUIT AGAINST BUSH ADMINISTRATION THIS MORNING IN LIVE WEBCAST. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown will appear together this morning on the East Steps of the state Capitol to announce the state’s lawsuit against the US Environmental Protection Agency for its ongoing foot-dragging on allowing California to implement the state’s landmark law cutting tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases.

The event with Schwarzenegger and Brown will be webcast live at 9 AM.

Because of the state’s historic problems with air quality, it has always been granted a waiver under the Clean Air Act to pursue anti-pollution measures beyond those of federal law.

The Bush Administration argued that greenhouse gases are not pollutants, despite the preponderant scientific view that they cause climate change. But early this year, the US Supreme Court ruled against the Bush Administration position, declaring that greenhouse gases are pollutants under the Clean Air Act. Since then, the EPA says it has been studying the issue further.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading in the $97 to $98 per barrel range, driven by the ongoing crises in Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran, the dollar’s record low against the euro, troubling signs about US oil inventory, and closure of oil platforms by heavy weather.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.


Jerry Brown discusses his relationship with Arnold Schwarzenegger
in this NWN video. Brown had just announced his September
agreement with a big oil company to reduce its greenhouse gas
emissions. With behind-the-scenes footage.

* NOTE: AS A NUMBER OF READERS HAVE MENTIONED, THE EXCLUSIVE VIDEO HERE, HOSTED BY YOUTUBE, IS PLAYING IN A DISTRESSINGLY IRREGULAR MANNER.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Attorney General Jerry Brown appear together this morning at the Capitol. They will announce the state’s lawsuit against the US Environmental Protection Agency to force its approval of California’s landmark 2002 law cutting tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases. The suit was to have been filed by former Governor Brown the week before last. But Schwarzenegger wanted to hold off, given the Southern California fire crisis. And the fact that he was asking President Bush, whose administration he is now suing, for major federal disaster assistance.

In September, Schwarzenegger and Brown applauded a federal court decision in Vermont that confirms the state’s ability to set vehicle greenhouse gas emissions standards. The Vermont law, like many others, is modeled after California’s strict regulations. A similar court case, brought by big automakers, in California is still pending.

“Today’s decision marks another important victory in the fight against global warming. California and other states that want to take aggressive action will no longer be blocked by those who stand in our way,” said Schwarzenegger. “Recent legal decisions are all pointing in a positive direction for California, and we’re confident we have a very strong case.”

For his part, Brown, who had just won a landmark settlement from oil giant ConocoPhillips which will accomplish a big chunk of the greenhouse gas reductions required in the San Francisco Bay Area by 2020 under last year’s legislation by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and signed into law by Schwarzenegger, hailed the decision by Judge Sessions. But he went on to say: “Unfortunately, this decision upholding California’s greenhouse gas emissions standards will turn out to be a hollow victory if the EPA persists in denying California’s waiver petition.”

Brown vowed to “haul the Bush Administration into court” if the US Environmental Protection Agency continued its stall on granting the customary waiver to California under the federal Clean Air Act. Today he is doing just that.

Approval of California’s waiver means the other states which have followed the Golden State’s lead will get automatic approval.

“Our petition represents a reasoned approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and it has been shamefully ignored for almost two years,” says Brown.

Brown, a Yale Law grad, has an interesting view of the history of the Clean Air Act with regard to California and air pollution.

“Congress,” notes Brown, “passed the Clean Air Act in 1963 and subsequent amendments in 1967, 1970 and 1977 expressly allowed California to impose stricter environmental regulations in recognition of the state’s ‘compelling and extraordinary conditions,’ including topography, climate, high number and concentration of vehicles and its pioneering role in vehicle emissions regulation.”

Brown asserted in September, as he will with today’s lawsuit, that the legislative history of the Clean Air Act makes it clear that “Congress intended the state to continue its pioneering efforts at adopting stricter motor vehicle emissions standards, far more advanced than the federal rules.”

Brown, whose administration forced early major concessions by the auto industry on pollution control, despite industry proclamations of disaster, approvingly quotes the judge in the Vermont case: “History suggests that the ingenuity of the industry, once put in gear, responds admirably to most technological challenges.”

Other than asserting that greenhouse gas emissions are not covered by the Clean Air Act — a view rejected by the conservative US Supreme Court — the Bush Administration has not publicly offered any legal argument against the California law. It has, however, lobbied members of Congress and other state governors behind the scenes in an effort to build political opposition to the California law.

Schwarzenegger’s efforts on climate change have been widely publicized. Brown’s have been less so, but he has actually been criss-crossing the state, working with local officials, environmentalists, and business executives to win agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In September, Brown won a major agreement from one of the nation’s largest oil companies. After he met with the company’s president, oil giant ConocoPhillips agreed to sharply reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of its refinery near the towns of Rodeo and Hercules next to I-80 between San Francisco and Sacramento. The refinery, which is the third largest oil refinery in America, is 25 miles east of San Francisco, and sits near the top of San Francisco Bay.

This marks the first time that a US oil company has agreed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions from a refinery expansion. The head of the Bay Area Air Quality Management District said that this move will account for one-quarter to one-third of the greenhouse gas reductions required by 2020 for the entire San Francisco Bay Area — the fourth largest metropolitan area in the US — under the landmark AB 32 climate change bill enacted last year by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature.

Brown, the two-time runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination who descended from his purported ivory tower to spend eight years running the very gritty city of Oakland, achieved another level of notoriety this year when a small band of right-wingers held up the state budget in a vain effort to stop him from prodding local governments to address greenhouse gas emissions in their planning processes.

They said that Brown, who sued sprawling San Bernardino County and sent interrogatory letters to a host of localities, is out to shut down development in California. And that Brown wanted to halt the state’s big new infrastructure development program, adopted by voters last November. Which would certainly be an odd position for the son of the late Governor Pat Brown, legendary builder of modern California. Especially since Brown campaigned with Schwarzenegger for the infrastructure bonds while the budget holdouts opposed the package. Despite the rhetoric, local governments don’t act all that threatened.

In September, Brown said this to a convention of local government officials that the state Senate budget holdouts were ostensibly protecting: “Now is the time to take what action you can and I do believe that the League of Cities, when you take the collective strength of all your diverse membership, you can make the difference. And so I want to join with you in helping you do that. Of course if you don’t I may sue you. So let’s make this easy for both of us, just do what I’m telling you to do, and you’ll become more popular, and I’ll become less unpopular, and everything will work just fine.”

That was met with laughter and a standing ovation.

Brown negotiated behind the scenes with sprawling San Bernardino County, the largest county in the continental US in terms of size, for months, winning a settlement in August that has the county addressing greenhouse gas emissions in its planning processes. The county’s board of supervisors agreed, over 30 month-period, to inventory all sources of current and future greenhouse gases by 2020 and reduce those emissions “attributable to the county’s discretionary land use decisions and its own internal government operations,” choosing from a menu of common sense techniques. At the time, San Bernardino County Supervisor Gary Ovitt said: “Only a handful of California counties and cities have formally addressed climate change issues, and San Bernardino County will lead the way in the implementation of strategies and steps to enhance our future and serve as a model for others.”

As governor from 1975 to 1983, Brown, confronted by industry demands for dozens of new nuclear power plants, cut California’s electric power demand growth from seven percent per year to two percent per year with a sharp new emphasis on conservation and renewable energy. As a result, California has long been the national leader in energy efficiency.

Concerned for decades about the greenhouse effect, the former governor says he is complementing Schwarzenegger’s efforts — not that the current governor, initially concerned by alarmed talk from developers and oil companies, always sees it that way, of course — on climate change. Now the two are suing the administration of the president that Schwarzenegger helped to re-elect in 2004, with his late appearance in the critical state of Ohio.

Ironically, and it’s easy to forget now, candidate George W. Bush actually promised in 2000 to cut greenhouse gas emissions. But once in office, Vice President Dick Cheney announced that there would be none of that.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.


Closing today’s special coverage of the 90th anniversary of the
Russian Revolution: Lenin makes his move on the then Russian
capital of Petrograd, which is now called St. Petersburg.

** QUITE A 90TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE RUSSIAN REVOLUTION. Considering that it’s no longer an official holiday, November 7th’s 90th anniversary of the Russian Revolution was, coincidentally, of course, quite momentous.

(It’s called the October Revolution — or Red October — because the feudal Russian state, long misruled by a czar, before going on to be monstrously ruled as a collective, was using the old-style Julian calendar. Dates under that calendar are 13 days earlier than in our own calendar, which is now used in Russia.)

October Revolution Day stopped being an official holiday with the fall of the Soviet Union, although Boris Yeltsin re-styled it as National Unity Day. Which it was until 2005, when Vladimir Putin moved the holiday to November 4th. But even though it’s not an actual holiday anymore in today’s post-Soviet Russia, it’s turned out to get all the attention.

The day began with a parade through Red Square. Not to celebrate Red October, mind you, but the parade of soldiers who left Moscow on this day in 1941 to defend the city from the Nazi invasion. Which shows the country’s dodgy dance with its Communist past. Some 10,000 participated in the parade. 700 veterans of the original march 66 years ago were on hand to witness the celebration.

Then the Russian parliament picked this particular day to vote to drop out of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty. The vote in Moscow was unanimous. The treaty limits the number of tanks and other conventional weapons, and would require Russia to withdraw all its troops from Georgia and Moldova. Russia doesn’t like the treaty, struck in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union, having come to see it as a way to limit Russia’s military forces while the US-backed NATO alliance expands to its borders. The proposed US anti-missile shield in Eastern Europe also exercises the Russians.

Hard on the heels of that came a dramatic mass protest in Tbilisi, the capital of the former Soviet republic of Georgia, now governed by a pro-US president following the ouster of the country’s previous president, former Soviet Foreign Minister Edouard Shevardnadze, in the largely peaceful Rose Revolution of 2003.

The Georgian government reacted with force, beating thousands of demonstrators and shutting down the country’s opposition media. All of it had come to a head on this day, said the Georgian officials, and was all the doing of the Russian secret service, which supposedly knit the disparate opposition elements together in a call for the resignation of President Mikhail Saakashvili, who a few years ago had the road in from the airport renamed after President George W. Bush.

Russia denied the charges. But as the end of the 90th anniversary of October Revolution Day came, Georgia was in a shambles.

Meanwhile, Russian, US, and Iranian officials continued their three-sided negotiation around Iran’s nuclear program, the stability of Iraq, and Russia’s drive to re-secure its “near abroad.”

All this happened as crude oil hit another record, providing a premium edge for Russia, which turns out to be one of the world’s greatest powers in oil and natural gas.

** ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER AND JERRY BROWN TO ANNOUNCE CALIFORNIA LAWSUIT AGAINST BUSH ADMINISTRATION TOMORROW MORNING IN LIVE WEBCAST. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown will appear together tomorrow at the Capitol to announce the state’s lawsuit against the US Environmental Protection Agency for its ongoing foot-dragging on allowing California to implement the state’s landmark law cutting tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases.

Because of the state’s historic problems with air quality, it has always been granted a waiver under the Clean Air Act to pursue anti-pollution measures beyond those of federal law.

The Bush Administration argued that greenhouse gases are not pollutants, despite the preponderant scientific view that they cause climate change. But early this year, the US Supreme Court ruled against the Bush Administration position, declaring that greenhouse gases are pollutants under the Clean Air Act. Since then, the EPA says it has been studying the issue further.

The suit was to have been filed by Brown the week before last. But Schwarzenegger, who was Russia’s favorite movie star, wanted to hold off, given the Southern California fire crisis.

The event with Schwarzenegger and Brown will be webcast live at 9 AM.

** GRAY DAVIS RESURFACES. Former Governor Gray Davis will address much of the surviving California political press corps next week at a press club luncheon in Sacramento. Davis, who won re-election in 2002 but lost office in the spectacular 2003 California recall, has some interesting thoughts about his successor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, with whom he has become friends, and the state’s latest budgetary predicament.

I had a long talk with the former governor last week, who to my knowledge is acquainted with Russians, and will be writing about him in advance of his speech on November 14th. (Yes, I do have a gag going about including a Russian reference in every NWN item today.)


The pro-US Georgian government, claiming that Russia is behind massive protests, today closed the main opposition TV station, owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., arresting a top Murdoch executive in the process.

** DOLLAR DOWN. The dollar is down at a record low, about $1.47 per euro. Gold is near a record low of $850 per ounce. After shooting up to $98 per barrel, crude oil settled back at $96.37. But with all the chaos in the world, that may be a temporary reprieve on the now widely expected move to $100 per barrel oil. High oil prices are a tremendous boon to OPEC nations, including Iran, whose economy is floating on risk, and Russia, now increasingly aggressive around the world less than a decade after being flat on its back.

China, perhaps the biggest buyer of the dollar, made it clear today that it’s moving to diversify its currency reserves, shifting away from the dollar. While a cheap dollar helps America’s massive trade deficit, it makes foreign goods more expensive. One thing is clear, the dollar is no longer the reserve currency of choice in troubled times.

** CHARGING RUSSIA WITH FOMENTING REBELLION, GEORGIA DECLARES MARTIAL LAW AND SHUTS DOWN RUPERT MURDOCH-OWNED TV STATION. The prime minister of the former Soviet republic of Georgia has just declared that the nation is in a state of emergency. Georgia’s pro-US president said earlier, as reported below, that Russia is behind the mass protests in the capital of Tbilisi, allegedly weaving together a coalition of opposition forces.

Independent TV stations have been shut down by Georgian special forces, notably the most popular station in the country, Imedi. Which is now owned and operated by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. (Fox News is part of the global empire.) Senior Murdoch executive Lewis Robertson was arrested by Georgian special police inside the station.

Under Murdoch’s ownership, the Imedi TV operation has continued to be the media center of opposition to the government. Imedi was actually founded by a former Soviet media official named Badri Patarkatsishivili, who made a fortune in the chaotic Russia of the 1990s before returning to his native Georgia, where he is the nation’s richest man. He and Murdoch are friends. News Corp. bought the controlling share in Imedi, as its founder plunged more deeply into his role as the most prominent opposition figure in the country.

Surprised?

I watched footage of the Imedi shutdown minutes after it occurred. It was quite dramatic. Russia would very much like the current Georgian government — which came to power in the Rose Revolution of 2003 which toppled former Soviet foreign minister Edouard Shevardnadze — to go away.

** DEAD HEAT DEMOCRATS IN IOWA, HILLARY’S LEAD DOWN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. The new Zogby telephone poll of Iowa shows a dead heat among the top Democrats. When only first choices are considered, it’s Hillary Clinton 28%, Barack Obama 25%, and John Edwards 21%. When the second choices of other candidates are considered, it’s Clinton 30%, Obama 29%, and Edwards 27%.

Private polling in New Hampshire, which the Clinton campaign views as its firewall, shows her with a continuing lead. But her margin over Obama is down in the wake as last week’s debate continues to resonate. Nevertheless, Clinton, who on a European trip with John McCain and other senators successfully engaged her Republican rival in a drinking contest featuring Russian vodka, can scarcely be counted out.


Lenin takes the steps leading to the Russian Revolution of 1917, which ended in crescendo 90 years ago today with the storming of the Winter Palace. “The most significant event in Russian history,” says the ever intriguing Russia Today news channel, created at the direction of Vladimir Putin.

** SECULAR OPPOSITION LEADER LAYS DOWN ULTIMATUM IN PAKISTAN. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto just delivered an ultimatum to President Pervez Musharraf: Give up his post as army chief of staff, which he has long promised in exchange for his disputed re-election as president last month, or face a mass protest mobilized by Bhutto’s secular opposition party. Bhutto gave Musharraf until Friday to comply or else face a “long march.” Bhutto and the nation’s deposed supreme court chief justice have joined in attacking Musharraf’s weekend power grab.

After eight years in exile, Bhutto returned to Pakistan last month with an apparent power-sharing deal with Musharraf. Her long motorcade procession to her home was attacked in spectacular fashion by terrorist suicide bombers, with some 150 people killed in the process.

Pakistan has moved many of its troops away from the border with archrival India, redeploying them in the interior of the country. The level of Pakistani forces along the Indian frontier seems to be at an historic low. Some of them are reportedly on their way to remote Waziristan, a safe haven for Al Qaeda and Taliban cadres.

India, which has long been closely aligned with Russia, does not appear to be trying to take advantage of the crisis. So far.

** PAT ROBERTSON BACKS RUDY GIULIANI. The televangelist, Christian fundamentalist leader and former Republican presidential candidate who ran well in the 1988 Iowa caucuses (where he beat future President George Bush I) this morning announced his endorsement of Rudy Giuliani for president. Other social conservatives have been troubled by the former New York mayor’s social liberalism. But Robertson, using somewhat apocalyptic language, brushed that aside.

“To me, the overriding issue before the American people is the defense of our population from the bloodlust of Islamic terrorists. Our second goal should be the control of massive government waste and crushing federal deficits. Uppermost in the minds of social conservatives is a selection of future Supreme Court justices and lower court judges who will sit in both the federal circuit courts and the district courts.

“Our world faces deadly peril: nuclear armed North Korea and the foreboding of nuclear arms in Iran, deadly violence from Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel, the possible overthrow of Pakistan’s government, and drawn-out wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In all of the crises which confront our nation and the world, we need a leader with a bold vision who is not afraid to tackle the challenges ahead.”

The 77-year old Robertson, once an ardent anti-Russian during the Cold War, didn’t mention the resurgent Russia today but spoke today of the Islamic threat in much the same way he spoke of the Communist threat in the old days.


Left-wing US journalists Jack Reed and Louise Bryant (Warren
Beatty and Diane Keaton) in the classic montage sequence from
Reds which culminates in the capture of the Winter Palace in
St. Petersburg. The music is “The Internationale.”

** RUSSIA DUMPS CONVENTIONAL FORCES IN EUROPE ACCORD. On this 90th anniversary of the Russian Revolution, the Russian parliament has voted to declare a moratorium on Russia’s participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty. The vote in Moscow was unanimous. The treaty limits the number of tanks and other conventional weapons, and would require Russia to withdraw all its troops from Georgia and Moldova.

Russia doesn’t like the treaty, struck in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union, having come to see it as a way to limit Russia’s military forces while the US-backed NATO alliance expands to its borders. The proposed US anti-missile shield in Eastern Europe also exercises the Russians.

** VIOLENT CRACKDOWN IN GEORGIA AS PRESIDENT ACCUSES RUSSIAN AGENTS. After days of protests in the capital of Tbilisi, which swelled a few days ago to 50,000, then subsiding and becoming more radical in their demands and growing to 70,000 today roaming around the city, Georgian police cracked down, beating and arresting thousands of protesters. Georgia’s pro-US president, Mikhail Saakashvili, said in a live TV address I watched early this morning that Russian security services are uniting the country’s disparate opposition groups to overthrow his administration.

Georgia has recalled its ambassador from Moscow.

Russia, which denies the charge, has troops stationed inside the country which was once a key part of the Soviet Union. They are, in Moscow’s phrase, “invited peacekeepers.”

** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCASTS TODAY IN POST-FIRESTORM CRISIS TOUR. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold live webcast press conferences at 11:15 AM and 1:15 PM after touring Lake Arrowhead and San Diego. The latter event will be at Sea World. His goal appears to be to spur the renewal of tourism in areas hard hit by the Southern California fires. Both events can be seen live via this link.

As a child growing up in Austria, Schwarzenegger saw Russian troops during the country’s partition.


From the classic Reds: Jack Reed, not entirely unlike old friend Warren
Beatty, gets carried away and tells Petrograd (now St. Petersburg)
workers that Americans will join them in revolution.

** MOSCOW PARADE ON 90TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE OCTOBER REVOLUTION. Although this is no longer an official Russian holiday, showing the country’s dodgy dance with its Communist past, it’s proving to be quite momentous. By coincidence, of course.

The day began with a parade through Red Square. Not to celebrate Red October, mind you, but the parade of soldiers who left Moscow on this day in 1941 to defend the city from the Nazi invasion. Some 10,000 participated in the parade. 700 veterans of the original march 66 years ago were on hand to witness the celebration.

It’s called the October Revolution, incidentally, because in those days Russia was on the Julian calendar, rather than the Gregorian calendar we know today. The difference is one of 13 days. This is why Russians not infrequently celebrate Christmas and New Year’s twice.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is at another new record price, in the $97 to $98 per barrel range, driven by the ongoing crises in Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran, the dollar’s record low against the euro, and troubling signs about US oil inventory.

This is an ongoing windfall for the OPEC nations and Russia.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

(more…)


Republican presidential frontrunner Rudy Giuliani knocked the Democrats last week for wanting to negotiate without preconditions. The US command in Baghdad today announced it is releasing nine Iranians captured inside Iraq.

** CALIFORNIA TO SUE BUSH ADMINISTRATION ON THURSDAY. California, joined by a host of other states, will sue the US Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday for its failure thusfar to grant a waiver under the Clean Air Act to allow the implementation of the state’s landmark 2002 law to cut tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases. Because of the state’s historic problems with air quality, it has always been granted a waiver under the Clean Air Act to pursue anti-pollution measures beyond those of federal law.

The Bush Administration argued that greenhouse gases are not pollutants, despite the preponderant scientific view that they cause climate change. But early this year, the US Supreme Court ruled against the Bush Administration position, declaring that greenhouse gases are pollutants under the Clean Air Act. Since then, the EPA says it has been studying the issue further.

The suit was to have been filed by former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown the week before last. But Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger wanted to hold off, given the Southern California fire crisis.

** PAST MIDNIGHT IN MOSCOW. It’s a few hours past midnight in Moscow now, on the day of the 90th anniversary of the Russian Revolution. NWN will be getting into this tomorrow.

** ADDING UP “CALIFORNIA COUNTS”: THE SCHEME TO CHANGE CALIFORNIA’S VOTE FOR PRESIDENT IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. Here is the campaign finance report for California Counts, the new group pushing the Republican scheme to change California’s Electoral College vote for president from the customary winner-take-all to an allocation by congressional district. (Which would hand about 20 extra electoral votes to the Republican nominee.)

The group is coming in at something over $500,000. This is well under the claimed $3 million. At a cursory glance, they all look like Republicans to me. The biggest donor? The cash-strapped California Republican Party, with $80,000. Super-rich San Diego Congressman Darrell Issa, who single-handedly financed the qualification of the 2003 California recall, has chipped in a little under $60,000 to the effort being run by his long-time consultant, Dave Gilliard.

** ANOTHER NEW OIL RECORD. Crude oil broke the $97 per barrel barrier during intraday trading before closing at another record of $96.70 per barrel. Why? Let’s count the reasons. A new Taliban terrorist bombing offensive in Afghanistan, the Pakistan crisis, uncertainty around Turkey and northern Iraq after yesterday’s meeting between President Bush and Prime Minister Erdogan, lower than expected US inventories, the closure of British North Sea platforms under heavy weather, another record low for the dollar against the euro.

The reason it hasn’t shot up with all these factors is that there was already a huge risk premium built into the price with all the war talk in recent months. Ironically, the Iranian situation may be easing a bit. See below.

** CALIFORNIA TERM LIMITS. As reported yesterday on NWN, California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner is going to play a lead role opposing the term limits change on the February ballot. Poizner, who invented technology to track cell phones and wants to run for the 2010 Republican gubernatorial nomination, announced today that he’s putting $1.5 million into the campaign against the measure, matching $1.5 million from a conservative DC outfit called US Term Limits. That group, which does not disclose its contributors, has been the spearhead of what campaign there’s been against the idea, and was embarrassed recently when its longtime head was indicted in Oklahoma for fraud.

Poizner, who heavily backed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s flawed redistricting reform initiative in 2005, which lost badly, may be perturbed with Democratic legislative leaders who promised then to produce redistricting reform but have since failed repeatedly to do so. With some Republican help in that failure.

** U.S. TO RELEASE IRANIAN PRISONERS, INCLUDING SOME CHARGED WITH TERRORISM IN IRAQ. The US military announced today that it will release nine Iranians captured in Iraq. These include two members of the elite Quds Force which the Bush Administration had been saying was behind the violence in Iraq.

This move comes just after the big conference in Istanbul discussed on NWN, and a few days after US Secretary of State Condi Rice gave the greenlight to a new round of talks with Iran. It also comes several weeks after General David Petraeus told the BBC that the US would likely begin talking again with Iran.

Will Iran, with Russia in its corner, barter away the nuclear weapons program it claims it doesn’t have in exchange for guaranteed continuing influence in Baghdad?

** ORANGE COUNTY SHERIFF TO TAKE LEAVE OF ABSENCE. Orange County Sheriff Mike Carona, indicted last week on multiple federal charges of conspiring to use public office to enrich himself, announced this morning that he will take a 60-day leave of absence to fight the “false charges” against him. He did this the morning after the county deputy sheriffs association voted unanimously that he should resign or otherwise step aside.


John Edwards, citing the instability of Pakistan, calls for a
global movement to abolish nuclear weapons, a noble goal.

** EDWARDS IS GOING AFTER HILLARY. John Edwards has made the decision to go after Hillary Clinton. Given his skills, and underlying concerns about her, especially in Iowa, it’s a decision that could deny her the Democratic presidential nomination. And deliver it to Barack Obama.

His critique?

That Hillary Clinton tries to play it both ways on Iran as on Iraq, that she is heavily funded by lobbyists, that her political character is one of equivocation, and that her politics are strictly status quo.

The danger for Edwards?

That he sways a large number of Democrats to agree with him, since what he is saying constitutes much of the nagging doubt about Hillary, but turns off those voters to his candidacy because of the negativity.


A Russian paratrooper assembles his Kalashnikov assault rifle
in under 40 seconds.

** 90TH ANNIVERSARY OF RUSSIA’S OCTOBER REVOLUTION ON TAP. Deep into negotiations with the US over the emerging world order — which at the moment looks like disorder — Russia has a somewhat dodgy relationship with its Communist past. On the one hand, the country seems happy that it’s no longer under that harsh yoke. On the other, it misses the power and the glory.

So on November 4th, Russia held a new holiday, National Unity Day, which most of the country appears to know little about. On the 7th is the traditional October Revolution Day, which marks the 90th anniversary of the storming of the Winter Palace in St. Petersburg, then the nation’s capital, and the Bolshevik victory in the Russian Revolution.

That one people know about, even though it is no longer an official holiday. Yesterday thousands gathered for a dress rehearsal in Moscow’s Red Square. Of this unofficial holiday. Of course, it’s not going to be a celebration of the 90th anniversary of October Revolution Day. It will be, instead, a commemoration of the, ah, 66th anniversary of volunteers leaving Moscow to confront the Nazis.

** CLINTON IN VEGAS. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Hillary Clinton yesterday in Las Vegas. He addressed a rally of 3000 supporters and dropped by the Culinary Workers union and a national postal workers convention. That’s “dropped by” as in gave in 40-minute talks to the labor audiences. The Culinary Workers are a very key union in the Nevada presidential caucuses. The campaign also announced the endorsement of Siegfried & Roy …

** EAGLES SOAR. With their first all-new studio album in 28 years — they’ve had a variety of other albums with new material — the Eagles have returned at the top. The Eagles easily hit number one in the UK, for the first time ever, and also had by the far the best-selling album in the US, though because of their unique non-record store approach it’s not factoring into the traditional Billboard charting system. Their double album, Long Road Out Of Eden, sold over 700,000 copies last week in the US and nearly 150,000 in the UK. I don’t know figures for the rest of the world.

For a rock group that has such a smooth sound and is the most popular ever in America, the Eagles stir up a surprising amount of dislike. Here’s a sample from the right, in which “Newsbusters” blasts the band’s new album for spewing anti-Americanism. “Slamming America throughout” is the assessment. Well, not exactly true. Although it does take hard shots at empire, materialism, and the decline of journalism. The title song, a tour d’horizon in tour de force form, is largely about America’s adventure in the Middle East.

Then there’s this classic view from the boho left in The Big Lebowsky:

The Dude: Jesus, man, could you change the channel?
Cab Driver: Fuck you, man. If you don’t like my fuckin’ music get your own fuckin’ cab!
The Dude: I had a rough…
Cab Driver: I pull over and kick your ass out!
The Dude: Come on, man. I had a rough night and I hate the fuckin’ Eagles, man!

** GAVIN NEWSOM RE-ELECTION AS SAN FRANCISCO MAYOR TODAY. Today Gavin Newsom will be re-elected mayor of San Francisco. No serious candidate opted to run against him, despite his sensational personal scandal earlier this year. As NWN reported at the time, which was marked by incredible rumor-mongering, mostly false, in the blogosphere, and sensationalized coverage in the mainstream media, it would all work out for him. And so it has, though his hopes, to the extent he actually has them, for higher office will be delayed.

District Attorney Kamala Harris, a rising star in California politics who is probably spending more time on Barack Obama’s campaign than her own, will also be re-elected today. Unlike Newsom, who has a variety of colorful fringe types running against him, she is literally unopposed.

Turnout is expected to be low, with no suspense whatsoever about the top posts. And it will take up to a couple of weeks for the votes to be counted, as San Francisco’s voting system is so antiquated that all ballots must be checked by hand. So it will take a while before we know just how many votes were cast by puckish San Franciscans for the Chicken Man rather than the City By the Bay’s glamorous young mayor.

** SCHWARZENEGGER ORDERS PREPARATION OF BUDGET CUTS. Facing declining revenues with the housing market way off, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has directed state agencies to prepare possible 10% budget cuts. Next year will be a big state budget wrangle.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is up over $96 per barrel, driven by the ongoing crises in Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran, the dollar’s record low against the euro, and troubling signs about US oil inventory.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.


Domestic political pursuits may be trumped by the deepening
crisis in Pakistan.

** PAKISTAN REACT. As discussed in the Monday Morning Quarterback, the US presidential candidates today had to pivot from their usual concerns, including Iraq, to address the massive crisis in Pakistan. The Republicans tended to be supportive of what the Bush Administration has done, problematic given what erupted over the weekend, and the Democrats, of course, were critical. Reaction ranged from Republican Rudy Giuliani praising the Bush efforts to Democrat Bill Richardson urging a cut-off of aid to bring Pervez Musharraf under control.

Hillary Clinton, as you saw in the morning item, attacked the Bush policy, saying far too much attention has been paid to Iraq rather than Pakistan and Afghanistan, which is a linked crisis dating back to 9/11. Republican John McCain, along with Democrats Barack Obama and John Edwards, called for aggressive diplomacy to reverse the move to martial law. Republican Mitt Romney also called for diplomacy, but rejected any potential threat of a US aid cut-off, as did Fred Thompson.

All those candidates except Thompson published lengthy essays in Foreign Affairs magazine on their geostrategic views. All but Giuliani and Romney, who did not discuss the country, identified Pakistan as a key issue.

** BILL CLINTON IN VEGAS. Just kind of trips off the tongue, doesn’t it? Former President Bill Clinton is doing a rally in Las Vegas for his wife’s campaign tonight at 5:30 PM at the Andre Agassi College Prep Academy. The ex-president is popular in Nevada, which he carried in his own presidential campaigns. Though he lost the Nevada Democratic caucuses in 1992 to former Governor Jerry Brown.

** NEW CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC HEALTH CARE PROPOSAL. Democratic legislative leaders Fabian Nunez and Don Perata will unveil their latest version of a comprehensive health care reform proposal tomorrow morning. The two, especially Nunez, have been negotiating of late with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who had no public events today. We’ll see how much closer they’ve gotten. Their plan apparently embraces mandatory insurance and lowers the amount employers would have to pay, while imposing a new tobacco tax and some tax on medical providers. Schwarzenegger, who had recently proposed using the proceeds from leasing the state lottery rather than a new tobacco tax, has no scheduled public events tomorrow.

** EDWARDS SAYS HILLARY “TALKS LIKE DOVE, VOTES LIKE HAWK.” John Edwards lit into Hillary Clinton today in Iowa, saying that she “talks like a dove in Iowa and votes like a hawk in Washington.”

Edwards has been making a special point of charging Clinton with aiding President Bush in a purported run-up to war with Iran, specifically by backing a Joe Lieberman resolution declaring a large part of the Iranian military to be a terrorist organization. I think it’s a lot of Kabuki, given the limited US military options with regard to Iran. But Edwards sees advantage with a primary audience, as Clinton sees advantage with a general election audience. Meanwhile, all the war talk has driven up the price of oil, which benefits both the US oil industry and Iran itself.

** MOODY’S CALLS PAKISTAN RATINGS OUTLOOK “NEGATIVE.” As mass arrests of General Pervez Musharraf’s political opponents continue across Pakistan, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the nation’s ratings outlook from “stable” to “negative.” It’s a precursor move to a a significant downgrade in Pakistan’s debt, and hence ability to borrow in global markets.

Meanwhile, Musharraf again promised to quit his post as army chief of staff and serve as a civilian president. Of course, that would mean someone else is running the army, the only stable power base in the country, which may be why he hasn’t delivered yet on this longstanding promise. And other Pakistani officials said that parliamentary elections will go forward in January. Previously, they were put off indefinitely. And, of course, they may be put off again. Or only allow certain candidacies.

** POIZNER MAY CLOSE DEAL WITH ANTI-TERM LIMITS CHANGE CAMPAIGN THIS WEEK. I’m hearing that California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, the super-rich Silicon Valley inventor of technology to track cell phones, will reach and announce an agreement with the campaign to defeat the term limits change initiative on California’s February ballot, Proposition 93.

Poizner said during the Southern California fire crisis the week before last that he would take personal charge of rebuilding efforts. So presumably he won’t have much time to play a role with the campaign, which is being spearheaded by a controversial DC outfit called US Term Limits, whose longtime head was indicted for fraud in Oklahoma.

On the other hand, it may not take that long to write a check. Poizner’s consultant Wayne Johnson is reportedly serving as a media consultant for the No on 93 campaign. Poizner would like to run for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

** THOMPSON ADVISOR WITH DRUG DEALING PAST LEAVES CAMPAIGN. Fred Thompson’s old friend Philip Martin, with a couple of convictions for drug dealing in his past, has resigned from Thompson’s presidential campaign. Presumably Thompson will no longer fly around on Martin’s plane.

** HILLARY SAYS BUSH TO BLAME FOR PAKISTAN CRISIS. In the midst of a three-day swing through Iowa, Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton said that President George W. Bush is to blame for the deepening crisis in Pakistan. Because of the White House’s fixation on Iraq, Clinton says that Bush has ignored the worsening situation in Afghanistan and failed to follow her suggestion to appoint an envoy to deal with border disputes between Afghanistan and Pakistan. In addition, she charges that Bush has given President Pervez Musharraf mixed messages over the past few years about what is and is not acceptable.

** DEMONSTRATIONS ACROSS PAKISTAN IN PROTEST OF MARTIAL LAW. Demonstrations against President Pervez Musharraf’s suspension of the constitution and crackdown against the judiciary, the media, and his political opposition are growing. In Lahore, a rally of lawyers — that’s right, a rally of lawyers — was busted up forcefully, with over 250 arrested.

The key is probably the army, the most coherent institution in a never especially coherent country. So far, with at least 2000 arrests of political opponents, the army is staying with its current commander, Musharraf. But if the army becomes a special target, or if Musharraf is simply too lacking credibility, that can change. Incidentally, I’ve heard that a few hundred soldiers held prisoner by jihadists were recently released, in exchange for a few dozen jihadists. One of the rationales for Musharraf’s moves is the fight against jihadism, and his complaint that some judges have been too lenient on them, releasing some 61 accused terrorists.

As I’ve reported, the army’s vice chief of staff, General Ashfaq Kiyani, former head of the fearsome ISI intelligence agency, was military attache to former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who at last report was in her house surrounded by troops. They could do a deal.

** UNSETTLED REPUBLICAN RACE, CLINTON LEADS OBAMA. The new Washington Post/ABC News national poll shows Americans deeply dissatisfied with the country’s direction, Hillary Clinton continuing to lead Barack Obama, and the Republican field lacking a dominating frontrunner, unlike the case in the past few decades of elections.

Clinton leads Obama, 49% to 26%, with John Edwards third at 12%. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani leads with 33%. John McCain has recouped back to 17%. Fred Thompson is stuck at 16% and Mitt Romney is at 11%. Giuliani’s support does not appear to be very firm. On the question of America’s direction, 24% think the country is going in the right direction. But a whopping 74% think it’s going in the wrong direction.

** HOLLYWOOD WRITERS GO ON STRIKE. The Writers Guild went on strike this morning. The issue? A better deal on writers’ cut from new media, DVDs nd the Internet. The last time there was a writers’ strike, in 1988, things got somewhat worse for everyone involved.

But the union feels it needs to take a risk now, with the media changing and the power players behind the movie studios and TV networks becoming ever more attenuated from the creative side of things. Time was that the studio head was one of the ultra-powers of Hollywood. Now he, or she, is a division head in a transnational conglomerate.

I’ll have more thoughts on this, as it doesn’t seem to be going away any time soon. Incidentally, shouldn’t someone be mediating this thing? Someone like, say, a governor of California who knows Hollywood like the back of his hand?

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is down a bit, in the $95 to $96 per barrel range, on a lessening of immediate tensions in the crisis surrounding Turkey and Kurdish separatist rebels in northern Iraq. But it is kept aloft by the ongoing crises in Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran, the dollar’s record low against the euro, and troubling signs about US oil inventory.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

November 5th, 2007

Monday Morning Quarterback


Saturday Night Live presents Hillary’s Halloween Party. With
“Barack Obama” played by a surprise guest.

This week in presidential politics, the Democratic race is at last engaged, while on the Republican side Rudy Giuliani takes another stab at New Hampshire and Fred Thompson gets to deal with the revelation that his old friend and national co-chairman is a convicted drug dealer and bookie. But all this is overshadowed by what may be the country’s biggest geopolitical headache, the deepening crisis in Pakistan.

At the end of the week, the Democrats all gather in Des Moines, Iowa for a key event in what was already a tight three-way race there between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards, the state party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner. Many state parties around the country have J-J dinners, as they’re called, to raise funds and enthusiasm for the parties and celebrate the founders of the Democratic Party, Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson. (But not in all states. In California, for example, the p.c. crowd has never cottoned to the name, due to Jackson’s heritage as slave owner and Indian fighter. Not that Jefferson didn’t own slaves, too.)

In any event, the Iowa J-J dinner comes with the frontrunning Clinton in some trouble after last week’s debate in Philadelphia. In the aftermath of last Tuesday night’s debate, Hillary Clinton’s campaign didn’t issue the usual assured claims of victory. Even as the New York senator received a huge endorsement — AFSCME, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees — her campaign put out a video which “light-heartedly” says that her opponents “piled on” her in the debate. And in a conference call, which the Capitol insider newspaper The Hill somehow was allowed to listen to and write about, top Clinton strategists and supporters discussed their concern about her debate performance and anger with moderators Tim Russert and Brian Williams.

How bad is the trouble she’s in?

I’ve been saying for months that her coronation is by no means assured. And that candidates, even seemingly downtrodden ones, can rapidly emerge in early primaries and caucuses. Presidential primary politics is like nothing that most people in politics experience. It can be a mercurial, rapid-fire experience in which fortune turns on a dime.

That said, I thought Clinton, despite the fire she was taking throughout the debate, was in command up until the final two minutes. NBC newsman Russert, a former aide to Mario Cuomo, was definitely going at her. But were I in his position, I’d do much the same. Not to “get” her, but to inject some life into the debate and get some answers.

Of course, Russert may have been peeved by something Clinton tried on him in the previous debate, in which she pooh-poohed his questions about her views on Social Security, implying that the issue is some sort of obsession of his.

Be that as it may, Clinton was merely dinged a bit by the moderators. And her actual opponents — even John Edwards, who performed well — didn’t score many points against her. Until the end, when she stumbled on the drivers licenses for illegal immigrants issue, giving what sounded like two different answers in the same exchange.

And it wasn’t Edwards, or the sub-par performing Barack Obama, who highlighted the issue, it was Chris Dodd. Although Edwards skillfully waited for Dodd to express his disdain for Clinton’s posturing before deftly jumping in to make the point that she’d expressed two different positions in two minutes.

A fatal mistake for Clinton? Hardly. She can always back the lesser license option, in the manner of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Illegal immigrants are obviously driving, since they play a huge role in the US economy. Best to make sure they’re properly trained and insured, without granting further rights of citizenship. (This is not my personal opinion, by the way, it’s my political assessment of the issue.)

Is it a turning point? Only if her opponents can ramp up their game. Remember, nothing that Obama or Edwards did in that debate caused her much trouble. Of course, Edwards and, by the weekend, Obama, were in full stride to capitalize on the chink in Clinton’s armor.

John Edwards promptly launched his first TV ad in Iowa. His campaign says he will be on the air there from now through the contest on the ungodly date of January 3rd. Iowa is a must-win state for Edwards, running third around the country and trailing badly in fundraising. His campaign got a boost this week from his turning in the strongest performance in Tuesday night’s debate in Philadelphia.

Then Obama introduced a Senate resolution to clarify that Congress has granted Bush no authority to launch a military strike on Iran. He and John Edwards are making the case that Clinton’s vote for a Joe Lieberman resolution calling the Iranian Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization is an enabling step on the path to a coming war with Iran. Actually, US military options with regard to Iran are far more limited than either hawks or doves make them out to be. But the idea of war serves their respective purposes.

Clinton tried to respond to the setback by saying that the guys are “piling on” her. John Edwards then put out this very clever video response to Hillary Clinton, believing that what he calls her “double talk” will trump her complaints that the men are piling on her. It’s called “The Politics of Parsing.” I’ve heard they’re going to air it, but at its present 1:23 it’s too long for standard 30 or 60-second broadcast mode.

This week the top three Democrats will continue the maneuvering in the run-up to their joint appearance in Iowa. Clinton is hardly in extremis as a result, and national polls show no damage so far, but the coverage is far more focused and intense in the early states where the race will actually be shaped.

But there is a cultural shift that may be underway, with Saturday Night Live just over the weekend opening its show with a scathingly funny “Hillary’s Halloween Party.” Hostess Hillary comes as a bride, though most everyone thinks she’s wearing a witch costume, husband Bill is a player from “The Pick-Up Artist,” Bill Richardson — who came to Hillary’s rescue a few times in last week’s debate — comes as former veep Al Gore, and someone very intriguing comes as Barack Obama.

You can read the rest of Monday Morning Quarterback on PJ Media.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

November 3rd, 2007

Weekend Edition, With Updates


Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf gives his reasons for creating
a state of martial law in his chaotic country, America’s most important
ally in the Terror War.

** THE DEMOCRACY PROJECT. President and current military chief Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan has cracked down on the media, the judiciary, and his political opposition across the country.

The signals of CNN, the BBC, and Sky News have been blocked from Pakistan.

Notably absent from the roundups are many Islamic jihadists, whose romping around the country was the reason for the state of emergency, according to Musharraf.

Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, returned from exile last month in an apparent power-sharing deal with Musharraf, flew back to the country yesterday from Dubai and denounced Musharraf’s moves. After a few hours sitting on the tarmac, she was allowed to go to her home, which is reportedly surrounded by soldiers.

Parliamentary elections, set for January, are postponed indefinitely, and the country’s Supreme Court, which was expected to invalidate Musharraf’s re-election, is out of business, about half its members known to be under arrest.

Meanwhile, a top Pakistani official tells the Times of London that Musharaff’s actions threaten civil war in the only Islamic nation which actually has nuclear weapons. It’s unclear, as I wrote yesterday, if/how long the military will back Musharraf.

** OUR MAN IN PAKISTAN. General Pervez Musharraf, the President of Pakistan, created a state of martial law in his chaotic country. His translated* speech is excerpted here: In the past few months, the situation in Pakistan has been changing swiftly and I would like to talk about it very frankly. The first thing is that extremism and terrorism are at their peaks. At this time, suicide bombings are happening all over the country. Whatever happened in Karachi, followed by the incidents in Rawalpindi, Sargodha, their intensity has increased all over the country.

Extremists are roaming freely in the country, and are not afraid of the law enforcing agencies. They are very confident. In the Frontier province, a lot was already going on and we have been dealing with it. Its impact has also reached settled areas and now we will also have to tackle with the situation in the southern districts. But it is a sad matter that in Islamabad, the heart of Pakistan, the capital of Pakistan, extremism has spread causing anguish among the people. These extremists are taking the writ of the state in their hands and want to run their own government. And the biggest thing is that they have an obscurantist view about their religion Islam, that they wish to forcefully impose on moderate people. In my view, it is a direct challenge on Pakistan’s sovereignty. This is a very critical situation pertaining to extremism and terrorism.

Now on the other hand the system of governance today stands paralyzed. All senior functionaries of the government have to frequent the courts, they are being sentenced, they are subjected to humiliation in the courts, which they do not want to give a decision. Around 100 suo moto cases are being processed in the Supreme Court and I have been told that there are thousands of applications. And all these suo moto cases are concerned with government departments. So now the system of governance stands paralyzed. …

Apart from that, let’s take a look at the democratic system. Hurdles are being created in it. In 1999, when our government came into power, I prepared a three-phased strategy to transition to take the country towards democracy. As in 1999, the country was a defaulted state, the system of government was shattered and no government was completing its term. It was a sham democracy. In 2002, under the same strategy, I had total control, and I ran the affairs of the government. In stage two that was from 2002 to 2007. It was a democratic system, with an elected national assembly, senate, provincial assemblies, local governments, a system of elected governments as part of a democracy. During this period I oversaw the affairs of the state. …

Now we are in the final stage of this transition. …

I think that it is by design, for personal and political gains and for the detriment of Pakistan, a chaos is being created. All these things that I have mentioned, terrorism, extremism, paralysis, demoralized law enforcement agencies, interference in the democratic system, have unfortunately had an impact on the economic situation of the country and there has been a change in our move forward towards prosperity and now God forbid there are indications that it might show some downturn, though it has not yet done so, provided we are able to stop it in time.

I can also see that all investors that were coming to Pakistan, and I can see with great pain that it all is moving down, and now they have stopped whatever the investment that was coming to Pakistan and they are now seeing what is happening in Pakistan, whether it will continue to move forward in a stable manner or we stop investing our money here and invest it somewhere else.

Overall due to all these reasons, the entire nation is a victim of uncertainty and I am getting telephone calls from all over, from within the country and abroad, who want to know what is happening and some even question my decision making ability and ask that why I am not taking some decision. …

But it could not happen, and the situation continues to go from bad to worse and Pakistan is fast moving towards a negative side. And I would also like to say that the media. I would say some channels did not play their role in averting this downslide, this negativism, negative thinking, negative projection, and rather enhanced this atmosphere of uncertainty.

I also feel very sorry for that, just because that it is the same media that in 1999 was only the PTV and there was no independence. It is the same media that got independence from me, from my government, as I believed that media should be independent as I believe that it was the way forward in civilized societies. I have said several times to go towards positivism and stop negativism.

Then in Islamabad, we saw that the Lal Masjid issue cropped up, where extremists challenged the writ of the government in the heart of Pakistan, in capital city of Pakistan, and caused great embarrassment for the country, all over the world, and only I know how much bad name we earned. That we despite being such a big power could not protect our capital where they had created a state within a state. … Therefore, when as a last resort we took action, and I again commend all law enforcing agencies, that they took action and brought to an end all this humiliation and embarrassment. Many of these were martyred and I pray for them. May Allah send them to the heavens as they undertook this mission for this nation and this country and not for their own sake and laid down their lives. …

This country lives in my heart, in my blood and in my soul. I cannot see it go down. Therefore a time for action has come. I reviewed the entire situation. How to stop this downslide. In my view, these three pillars of state; judiciary, executive and legislative – all need to work in harmony so that we can have good governance and can fight extremism and terrorism with full force. This is the way to bring back the derailed government back on its tracks, before we completely run aground.

After reviewing this situation and after discussing it with all military, government, political and private, friends expatriate Pakistanis, I took a decision and this decision is basically part of the third phase of transition to democracy that I have already mentioned. This phase has to complete Inshallah. The hurdles in the way to democracy have to be removed. And what is, and has been my decision, of completing this third phase, will be Inshallah be completed.

To do this I have declared emergency. I have issued a Provisional Constitution Order that was on the television and you might have seen it. In this respect there will be no change in the government, Prime Minister, Governors, Chief Ministers, all will continue to function, all assemblies – Senate, National Assembly, Provincial Assemblies – will continue to function as they are working now and this process will continue. I have taken this decision. For me this was the easiest way to put Pakistan back on the tracks and the progress on the economic developmental aspects continues unabated, and the last transition phase to democracy is completed.

Now taking advantage of this opportunity I would like to speak in English. I have spoken in Urdu to my countrymen, I would like to take this opportunity to speak to the world in general, but particularly to our friends in the West, United States, European Union and the Commonwealth. … Musharraf continues his statement in English, as seen in the video above. * Translation from Urdu provided by the Associated Press of Pakistan.


The Pakistani situation was complex enough before President
Pervez Musharaff moved Saturday to suspend the constitution,
cut phone service and independent TV stations, and move troops
into the cities.

** PAKISTAN UNDER MARTIAL LAW. The Bush Administration just got its latest unpleasant surprise. With Secretary of State Condi Rice in Istanbul for complex negotiations with Russia, Turkey, Iraq, and other Middle Eastern nations — and to give a greenlight to renewed talks with Iran — Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf today suddenly declared a state of emergency. Which really looks more like martial law, since he suspended the country’s constitution, cut much of the country’s phone service, shut down independent TV news operations, moved troops into the cities, and blockaded the nation’s Supreme Court in its headquarters.

The court was apparently on the verge of invalidating Musharaff’s presidency.

The professed reason for the moves is to quell the wave of violence around the country spurred by Islamist jihadist forces. The most dramatic manifestation of which was last month’s spectacular terrorist bombing attack on the motorcade of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who had just returned to the country after eight years in exile. After months of negotiation, she’d agreed to a power-sharing arrangement with Musharaff, who was then re-elected president by the national and major provincial parliaments. He agreed to step down as head of the military, having appointed as new vice chief of staff General Ashfaq Kiyani, a former head of the dread ISI intelligence service and one-time aide to Bhutto. But Musharaff hasn’t stepped down yet, though he’s been appearing in public wearing a suit rather than his general’s uniform. Complicated, isn’t it?

Meanwhile, Bhutto left the country for Dubai before Musharaff moved into martial law mode. But she is apparently now just back in Pakistan. She’s the head of the main opposition party, which is largely secular. But she has, or has had, a deal with Musharaff. And Musharaff’s picked successor as army chief of staff, former ISI chief Kiyani — who got that job after he investigated an assassination attempt against Musharaff — is Bhutto’s former military attache. Will he be the new strong man?


One of the songs on the new Eagles album. “Waiting In The
Weeds” from Long Road Out Of Eden.

** SCHWARZENEGGER ON SHRIVER, THE PRESIDENCY, AND THE SENATE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had some amusing and perhaps telling things to say during a Q&A session with audience members yesterday afternoon at the Silicon Valley Leadership Group: First of all, let me tell you that my wife would make a great president. But I don’t think she has any interest in that at all, even though she comes from a political family.

She comes from a political family, but you have to understand that my wife was very much against me running for governor. She was, as a matter of fact, I think very depressed about me deciding that I’m going to run for governor, because she grew up and was a victim, as a kid, to be thrown into this political family where you’re always the photo op and you’ve been dragged around to the various different events, and then on Sunday nights you have always 100 people over at the house and talk about policies and get dressed up and all this stuff. And then there’s the campaign, and the father ran for vice-president, then for president, and she had to be out there at 5:00 in the morning in front of the factory telling people, “Vote for my Daddy, vote for my Daddy,” and all of those things.

So she felt very strongly, when she was 21 years old, that she’s going to go and find a man that has absolutely nothing to do with politics. (Laughter) And she bumped into this Austrian farm boy that was a bodybuilder, and he was only concerned about oiling up and being with the little posing trunks up on stage, and showing how studly he is. (Laughter) You get it. I’m talking about myself. (Laughter) And so she thought, well, this guy is interesting because he’s a bodybuilding champion and he wants to go to Hollywood and be a movie star. That will take us as far away from politics, from Washington or any of this stuff, as possible. Great, I’m going to go with this guy.

Only to have, 30 years later, turn the whole thing and make it full circle, and then all of a sudden me saying to her, “Maria” — we were sitting in the Jacuzzi — I said, “Maria, here’s an idea. What do you think about this? Me running for governor.” I said, “There’s a recall, and there is only a two-month campaign, it wouldn’t be that much,” I said, “And I think we can work our way through these two months. And then I’m governor, isn’t that great?” And Maria started — I saw her, and in all seriousness, she had tears coming down from her eyes. That’s how she responded to it. She was very upset. So I had to work on her for 14 days. That’s where I learned negotiating, how to bring Democrats and Republicans together, right in the Jacuzzi.

And I worked on her mother, my mother-in-law. And her mother, of course, comes from the tradition of the Kennedy family. The tradition is, don’t get in the way of the man. You know, if they have something in their tummy, in their stomach, that they wanted to do, and if it’s deep in their heart, then don’t stop them. And so with that in mind, Eunice told Maria, she said, “Don’t stop him. I think that’s great he wants to be a public servant. I think it’s great that he wants to give back to the state.” And so this is what happened. Eunice said to Maria, she said, “Let him run.” And Maria came to me and said, “You know, I will be your partner whatever you want to do. I’m going to go and campaign with you, and I want you to run.” And so we did that together, and so it was really terrific. And so Maria deserves, actually, to be president of the United States, because she’s definitely smart enough to do it, and has all the experience in the world, trust me. (Applause)

MR. WRIGHT:

And then I guess one quick suggestion is, maybe you do away with the smoke tent in Sacramento, and maybe bring in a big Jacuzzi, huh?

GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGER:

No, no. I like that smoke tent. I like that smoking tent, I love it. Everyone wants to take it away, but I love it. And let me also just — I just want to add one more thing about the Constitution. People ask me a lot of times, “Doesn’t it make you mad that here is this land of opportunity, and you cannot go all the way?” and all this. I don’t think that way, to be honest with you, because I think only about the things that I was able to do. I mean, there is so much that we are able to do in this country, there are so many opportunities, endless amount of opportunities. I wouldn’t have even had 10 percent of a career if I wouldn’t have come to California, if I wouldn’t have come to America. So why would I think about the one thing that I can’t do? Why would I dwell on that? I only think about the things that I was able to do, only because of America. (Applause)

MR. WRIGHT:

And before I turn it back over to Carl: So, are you going to run for the U.S. Senate, or L.A. mayor?

GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGER:

I have no interest in either one. But, you know, if it makes people happy to talk about it. And if it makes Barbara Boxer happy to talk about it, because this way she can raise more money, when she says: That Schwarzenschnitzel, he’s after me. He’s after me. Oh my God, we’ve got to raise a lot of money. (Laughter) You know that’s what this is all about. So no, I have really no interest in that at all. (Applause)

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia is fast re-emerging as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil closed near $96 per barrel yesterday, kept aloft by the ongoing crises in Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran, the dollar’s record low against the euro, and troubling signs about US oil inventory. Energy markets are closed for the weekend.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.


Russian President Vladimir Putin embraced Iran on his October 16th
trip to Tehran. But the situation is far more complex than that.

** CARONA SCANDAL: FROM TODAY’S LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL. After years of suspected sleaze, Orange County Sheriff Michael Carona this week was indicted on a variety of federal corruption charges. You’ll never guess who helped bring Carona’s carousing and questionable ethics to the attention of law enforcement in California.

It’s Las Vegas’ own Rick Rizzolo, the Crazy Horse Too topless bar boss currently on vacation at government expense. Rizzolo sidled up to Carona at the popular Ritz restaurant in Newport Beach while undercover investigators winced. .. Not surprisingly, some of the public funds Carona allegedly misused have been traced to Las Vegas.

The indictment must come as a relief to honest members of the Orange County sheriff’s office and Orange County district attorney’s office, who have cringed for years at Carona’s act.

The mobbed-up Rizzolo, imprisoned for racketeering, was one of Carona’s friends whose association with the sheriff got the Orange County Sheriff’s Department barred from receiving intel on organized crime from the international Law Enforcement Intelligence Unit (LEIU). A rare occurrence, but something which also happened to the Las Vegas Police Department, due to some of its officers’ association with known organized crime figures.

** OIL BACK NEAR RECORD LEVEL. Crude oil closed at $95.93 per barrel today, back up near the record on continuing global insecurity discussed here on NWN.

** UPDATE: MAJOR DISARRAY WITH CARONA AS INDICTED ORANGE COUNTY SHERIFF NOW NOT STEPPING ASIDE. I suppose this sort of behavior is to be expected. Despite an earlier report, including an online article in the right-wing Orange County Register, indicted Sheriff Mike Carona is now not stepping aside temporarily as chief lawman in Orange County.

That is according to his political consigliere, former state Republican chairman Mike Schroeder, a far right conservative who ostentatiously walked out of the September state convention banquet in which Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger told Republican activists they need to get back in the mainstream with most voters. Schroeder arranged for Carona’s hiring in 2001 of the sheriff’s PR man, Jon Fleischman, who built up the right-wing web site Flash Report while working for the taxpayers of Orange County.

Incidentally, as some readers have noted, this story is nowhere to be found on the Drudge Report. If any story is Drudge fodder, this is it. Except for the “R” in place of the “D.”

** CARONA STEPPING ASIDE. As reported earlier, Orange County Sheriff Mike Carona, indicted on federal corruption charges for what the US Justice Department says was an ongoing conspiracy dating back to 1998 to use public office for the purpose of enrichment, is stepping aside from the day-to-day running of the department. In his place, he proposes, will be the undersheriff, a longtime loyalist of his. It remains to be seen how this maneuver plays.

** IRAN-CENTERED MANEUVERING UNDERWAY. Representatives of one key grouping called the “Iran 6″ — the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (US, Britain, Russia, China, and France) plus Germany — meeting today in London have agreed to consider further sanctions against Iran if the nuclear watchdog IAEA reports in two weeks that Iran is not cooperating with nuclear inspections.

This, of course, is just one aspect of US objections to Iran, and perhaps not the most important one, just the one most suitable to what is called public diplomacy. There are many other moving parts here.

Now attention shifts to the Istanbul meeting. As well as simultaneous events in Kosovo, Georgia, Eastern Europe, and other parts of the Middle East.

** CARONA TO STEP ASIDE? There is a report circulating, as yet unconfirmed, that Orange County Sheriff Mike Carona — indicted on federal corruption charges — will step aside temporarily while he contests the charges against him, his wife, and his girlfriend, who is described by federal prosecutors as his “longtime mistresss.” I’ll let you know when it’s confirmed. Incidentally, according to several sources, Jon Fleischman, proprietor of the right-wing Republican Flash Report web site, is working for Carona again. He won’t comment on his going back to work for the sheriff, who employed him as his taxpayer-funded PR guy during most of the period which the US Justice Department says coincided with an ongoing conspiracy to use public office for self-enrichment. His site has been oddly silent on the Carona case while constantly attacking Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez for his use of campaign funds for travel and gift expenditures.

** NEW EDWARDS RESPONSE TO HILLARY’S “POLITICS OF PILE ON.” John Edwards has put out this very clever video response to Hillary Clinton, believing that what he calls her “double talk” will trump her complaints that the men are piling on her. It’s called “The Politics of Parsing.”

I’ve heard they’re going to air it, but at its present 1:23 it’s too long for standard 30 or 60-second broadcast mode.

** WHILE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES POSTURE, THE REAL ACTION ON IRAN IS ELSEWHERE. While Republican presidential candidates posture for a military strike on Iran, and most of the Democrats posture that an attack is imminent and Hillary Clinton is playing into the right’s hands, the real action, based on the actual realities of the situation, is in Istanbul and London with conferences there over the next few days. Clinton, incidentally, is talking about Iran with the circumspection of someone who is already president, which she is not.

It’s a very complex, multi-dimensional situation, one in which unilateral US military action is far less efficacious than either side in the American debate fantasizes it to be. And there are a great many moving parts, some of them seemingly having nothing to do with Iran. NWN will be monitoring throughout.


Barack Obama had his best moment in this week’s debate as he
scored Hillary Clinton for not revealing her White House papers even
as she says her time as first lady shows her superior experience.

** OBAMA INTRODUCES IRAN RESOLUTION. As he seeks to capitalize on Hillary Clinton’s stumble at the end of this week’s Democratic presidential debate, Barack Obama late yesterday introduced a Senate resolution to explicitly state that President Bush has no unilateral authority to launch a military strike against Iran. He and John Edwards are making the case that Clinton’s vote a Joe Lieberman resolution calling the Iranian Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization is an enabling step on the path to a coming war with Iran.

Actually, US military options with regard to Iran are far more limited than either hawks or doves make them out to be. But the idea of war serves their respective purposes.


John Edwards deftly zinged Hillary Clinton in this week’s debate
when he noted that she had just expressed two different opinions
on drivers licenses for illegal immigrants. With a big assist from Chris Dodd.

** EDWARDS TAKES TO THE AIR IN IOWA. John Edwards launched his first TV ad yesterday in Iowa. His campaign says he will be on the air there from now through the contest on January 3rd.

Iowa is a must-win state for Edwards, running third around the country and trailing badly in fundraising. His campaign got a boost this week from his turning in the strongest performance in Tuesday night’s debate in Philadelphia.

** CALIFORNIA VOTERS SPLIT ON STATE’S DIRECTION. AT LEAST, THEY WERE, PRIOR TO ONE OF THE BIGGEST DISASTERS EVER. In the latest installment of the Field Poll, for which the questioning began over three weeks ago, we learn that California voters are split on the state’s direction. 42% say California is moving in the right direction, 42% say the wrong direction. That’s down 10 points from the spring.

The top reason why California is on the wrong track? Illegal immigration. The top reason why California is on the right track? Arnold Schwarzenegger’s leadership.

This poll was conducted before the Southern California firestorms of last month, one of the biggest disasters in California’s history. Such an event can have an enormous impact on this question. But we don’t know what it is from this poll.

This practice of conducting a poll over a lengthy period of time, compiling it, and then slowly doling out its results to subscribing media outlets who view it as an assured stream of inventory is an artifact of the pre-Digital Age.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia is fast re-emerging as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After shooting over $96 per barrel for yet another record in early trading yesterday, crude oil prices are in the $94 to $95 range, kept aloft by the ongoing crises in Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran, the dollar’s record low against the euro, and troubling signs about US oil inventory.

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