Driven in large measure by insecurity about the housing and stock markets and dissatisfaction with the summer’s state budget stall and the latest Iraq policy, the mood of Californians has darkened in a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Not surprisingly, support for government intervention in health care is high, and the term limits change initiative is favored.
First the news about politicians in this environment. Only Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, among the names polled, is holding up well with voters. He has a job approval rating of 59% among likely voters. His possible opponent in the 2010 Senate race, Senator Barbara Boxer, has dropped to a 46% job approval rating, with nearly as many, 41%, disapproving. Senator Dianne Feinstein, historically equivalent with Schwarzenegger, is in between at 52% approval. Her decline is probably attributable to frustration with the Iraq situation.
Speaking of which, President George W. Bush continues to be massively unpopular in California, along with his latest Iraq policy, which is favored by only 24%. Only 25% believe the surge is working. Over 60% want a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops.
Other state officials, such as former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, were not measured in this poll. But the state Legislature was, and its job approval rating is only 29%.
All these job approval numbers are lower among California residents at large.
Yet the state government, while held in low esteem — only 25% trust it to do the right thing all or most of the time — is a little bit better liked than the federal government. While 73% think that state government is dominated by a few big interests, 77% think that of the federal government. That’s probably due to Iraq.
In the presidential primary, Hillary Clinton continues to lead Democrats, with 41% to Barack Obama at 23% and John Edwards at 14%. On the Republican side, where dissatisfaction with the candidates is greater, Rudy Giuliani’s lead has slid. He’s now at 22%, with Fred Thompson at 16%, Mitt Romney at 16%, and John McCain at 15%. 76% of Democrats are satisfied with their candidates, while only 55% of Republicans say the same about theirs.
42% of the voters identified themselves as Democrats, 33% Republicans, 20% independents, and 5% members of other parties.
Now to the policy. The term limits change initiative, which would lower the overal length of service in the Legislature from 14 to 12 years but allow it all to be served in one house, is backed by a healthy 55% of the voters.
On redistricting reform, shelved at the last minute this year by intransigence among some Democrats and increasingly cold feet among Republicans, 66% want the task taken out of the hands of the Legislature and given to an independent commission.
On health care, among all Californians, 61% favor the plan of Democratic legislative leaders Fabian Nunez and Don Perata, with employers bearing the brunt of the burden of expanding health care. But 72% favor the plan of Schwarzenegger, with employers, health care providers, and individuals picking up the tab.
But among likely voters, the numbers are different. Only 47% favor the Democratic health care plan, while 63% favor the Schwarzenegger plan.
Underlying the support for health care reform is economic insecurity. 62% of likely voters say they expect bad economic times next year. That’s up a whopping 20 points since January.
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That reads like bad news for every side. lol
That reads like bad news for every side. lol
No video?
If a paltry 27% favorable rating makes President Bush “massively unpopular” and the state legislature has a 29% favorable rating, are they “massively unpopular” too?
I think so and when the No side of the term limits initiative gets rolling, so will the voters.
As you must know, political institutions are always more unpopular than individuals. Except in the case of your party’s president.
Not yet.
>Jonas Blane :
No video?
Sep 21, 2007 06:41 AM
Except for Schwarzenegger.
>Ann :
That reads like bad news for every side. lol
Sep 21, 2007 06:28 AM
Incidentally, folks, I’m transitioning into two new projects right now.
So if you can keep the kneejerk spin to a minimum, I’d appreciate it.
… That means ADDITIONAL projects. So my patience is not at its all-time peak.
… That means ADDITIONAL projects. So my patience is not at its all-time peak.
47 pct. is a bad number for the Democrats health care plan. Those guys talk to each other in the Building too much.
It seems that term limits opponents may have difficulty raising money to oppose the February initiative, but if the electorate are made aware that the initiative benefits legislators, it will be defeated.
Maybe Schwarzenegger will promise to campaign for passage of the term limits measure if legislators agree to his plan. Otherwise I have difficulty believing there is much interest by democratic or republican legislators in passing the Arnold health plan
Off topic, but related to yesterday’s…
“American convoys under the protection of Blackwater USA resumed on Friday, four days after the U.S. Embassy suspended all land travel by its diplomats and other civilian officials in response to the alleged killing of civilians by the security firm”
I’ll be getting to that after I finish rewriting an unrelated script.
Actually, it’s yes and no. The convoys travel only with specific permission of the Iraqi government.
What’s the big “benefit” to legislators from the term limits initiative?
A few would stay a few years longer. All future legislators would get less time. The two houses would have more continuity w/out the pols jumping from office to office.
Len – I prefer elimination of term limits altogether, but legislators are very much in favor of this initiative because for many of them it doubles their time in office from 6 to 12 years
How many is “many?”
Perhaps the reason the Schwarzenegger’s health care plan rates higher then that of the Democrats are that many people are beginning to realize that a 7.5 payroll tax on employers, which is the cornerstone of the Democrats proposal, is a terrible idea. At a time when the economy is perhaps slowing down due to the mortgage/lending crisis the last thing you want to do is pass something that will lead to job loss and unemployment. I am beginning to fear that this health care plan like the energy deregulation a few years ago is something their going into with the best of intentions but will backfire disastrously.
Bill, do you really believe that “dissatisfaction with the summer’s state budget stall” helped produce the low numbers? I know in Sacramento the delay upset a lot of people, but everywhere else it’s already been forgotten.
Chris, you haven’t read the PPIC report.
Incidentally, I didn’t find the state budget stall upsetting. I found it stupid.
Incidentally, I didn’t find the state budget stall upsetting. I found it stupid.
Who gets six years besides Fabian Nunez?
Hap Hazard :
Len – I prefer elimination of term limits altogether, but legislators are very much in favor of this initiative because for many of them it doubles their time in office from 6 to 12 years
Sep 21, 2007 08:58 AM
I love the righty wingnuts!
Their great big heroic budget stand. No, it’s already “forgotten”. lol
I love the righty wingnuts!
Their great big heroic budget stand. No, it’s already “forgotten”. lol
< Chris Reed :
Bill, do you really believe that “dissatisfaction with the summer’s state budget stall” helped produce the low numbers? I know in Sacramento the delay upset a lot of people, but everywhere else it’s already been forgotten.
Sep 21, 2007 09:25 AM
Many members of the Assembly do not have an automatic transition to the Senate when they are termed out. Although it may work out for some to transition smoothly to the Senate because the Senate seat in which they are nested is also going vacant, often times that isn’t true and they are required to leave office for a number of years, hoping to re-enter at a later time. This is often a dicey proposition, because once out of office it is difficult to be remembered and to raise money.
In addition, many Assemblymembers who have an empty Senate seat to run for when the time comes find they have another Assemblymember to run against, or an influential local politician, or what not.
The same is true for senators. It certainly is nicer for a senator to have 3 terms instead of two.
These are not the only advantages, but I think it is clear that passage of this would be a real advantage to incumbents generally, not just to Nunez and Perata.
That’s a rather involved argument, don’t you think?
Not really arguing for or against, just explaining why legislators besides Nunez and Perata like the term limit initiative. If I was able to write clearly and briefly, I would say that, if I was an assemblymember, I would much rather run for office if I knew that, absent conviction of a crime, I could stay there as an incumbent for 12 years instead of 6 without a break in service, and without having to elbow aside others to move over to the Senate.
one last comment… The proponents of the initiative based the “reduction in term limits” ploy on the erroneous assumption that currently, legislators are “entitled” to serve 14 years, 6 in the assembly and 8 in the senate, even though statistically, I’d say only about 30% actually get to do that. Many, particularly in the Assembly, are 6-years and out. This initiative gives them 12 years, essentially be default.
Well of course the term limits extension will go down. It was a lousy idea but it was sold a solution to all those politicians inaction. Actually, combined with jerrymandered seats and a 2/3 vote requirement it assured that we got one of the more dysfunctional legislatures around (I Guess Texas still beats us ther but I’m not sure). And I’m old enough to remember when CA was a leader – the Courts, the Leg, the Civil Service, Education – you name it and we set the pace and were recognized all over the world. Remmber when countries like the UK sent delegations here to see how our Master Plan for Higher Ed worked? But that was another world. And a world in which the local news stations like Channels 2,4, and 7 here in LA had real bureaus in Sacramento and covered wha1t went on up there.
What did I do to deserve the name-calling, Ann? Really? You stay classy.
Sorry.
Denying anybody remembers the budget blockade is disngenuous, Chris.
Denying anybody remembers the budget blockade is disngenuous, Chris.
Some prefer to forget.