President Bush discusses the novels of Graham Greene and why
the Iraq War is like the Vietnam War, the analogy he long resisted.
** FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR BOOSTS OBAMA. Former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, an architect of the Cold War aggressive containment policy under Presidenti Carter following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, gave a boost to Barack Obama’s presidential candidacy when he said on an episode of Al Hunt’s TV show airing later tonight on Bloomberg TV that Obama is best suited to lead the US into a new era.
“Obama recognizes that the challenge is a new face, a new sense of direction, a new definition of America’s role in the world,” Brzezinski said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt.”
“He has a sense of what is historically relevant, and what is needed from the United States in relationship to the world. “Being a former first lady doesn’t prepare you to be president. President Truman didn’t have much experience before he came to office. Neither did John Kennedy,” Brzezinski said.
Hillary Clinton’s foreign-policy approach is “very conventional,” Brzezinski said. “I don’t think the country needs to go back to what we had eight years ago.”
“There is a need for a fundamental rethinking of how we conduct world affairs,” he added. “And Obama seems to me to have both the guts and the intelligence to address that issue and to change the nature of America’s relationship with the world.” Brzezinski called for talks with America’s foes, saying: `What’s the hang-up about negotiating with the Syrians or with the Iranians? “What it in effect means is that you only talk to people who agree with you.”
When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, Brzezinski saw that they had created what could become their own Vietnam, and moved to back the Afghan resistance. A Polish emigre, he had previously encouraged dissident movements throughout Eastern Europe and championed the creation of the US Rapid Deployment Force, more closely associated now with Ronald Reagan. He was a sharp critic from the beginning of the Bush Iraq policy and favors a policy of engagement with all national actors in the Middle East.
** POTENTIAL REFUNDS IN MANIPULATION OF CALIFORNIA’S ELECTRIC POWER MARKET. The electric power crisis that gripped California in 2001 in the wake of a semi-deregulation of its market was later shown to have been in part due to manipulation by merchant power generators such as the late Enron Corp. Well after the fact, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) ordered some refunds of payments by California utility ratepayers to the companies. A federal court of appeals in San Francisco today issued a ruling that could potentially return $1.3 billion.
California’s attorney general had asked the court to reverse FERC’s refusal to grant refunds on short-term electric power purchased in the Pacific Northwest during that period. The attorney general argued before the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals that FERC erred in excluding the purchases from refund eligibility. The court agreed and sent the case back to FERC for reconsideration.
In a statement, Attorney General Jerry Brown said: “Today’s decision is a major victory for California ratepayers. I encourage FERC to promptly refund the more than one billion that was stolen from the people of California.”
** JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF CHAIRMAN REPORTEDLY WANTS IRAQ TROOP CUT. Reports are emerging that Marine General Peter Pace, America’s highest-ranking military officer as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wants US forces in Iraq cut by as much as half next year. The concern is that the frontline military is becoming worn and overstretched, and less than fully capable of responding to a new threat situation.
The question is how public Pace and other top brass, some of whom have criticized the Iraq mission from the beginning, will be with the theater commander, Army General David Petraeus, coming up with his long-awaited report in mid-September. The theater commander, of course, is out-ranked by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which consists of the commanding officers of each of the principal US armed forces — Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force.
But Petraeus is the pick of the White House, and the various aspects of post 9/11 combat have been directed on a much more political basis than is the norm, with regional combatant commands and theater commanders taking direction from the secretary of defense and the White House, and, in the case of the Afghan invasion, with the CIA running most of the show.
Pace steps down as JCS chairman this fall. In the wake of controversy over his disparaging views of gays, he was not renominated by President Bush. But the deeper reason was thought to have been the likelihood that his Senate hearing would have turned into a major inquiry into how the Iraq War has been run. Now, it may also have been that Pace was too far out of phase with the White House on the Iraq policy.
** SCHWARZENEGGER WEB SITE CRASHES IN MIDST OF STATE BUDGET SIGNING CEREMONY. Well, this is a first. In the midst of a live webcast of the California budget signing ceremony in the Capitol Rotunda, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s web site crashed. I’ve made inquiries but have no explanation as of yet.
UPDATE: Schwarzenegger press secretary Aaron McLear apologizes for the inconvenience and says they had a brief “problem with our database.”
** WHAT’S A LITTLE ELBOWING AMONG FRIENDS? Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez called Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s office this morning to request bill language for the Schwarzenegger health care plan. If he doesn’t get it, he’s saying that the governor’s concept paper — which is what he’s produced to date — will be submitted today to the legislative counsel for translation into bill form. Nunez then would schedule a vote on the governor’s plan for late next week. The analysis previously from the legislative counsel’s office is that it needs a two-thirds vote for passage.
** THE VANISHING VETS. Here is an oddity for an era in which US politics is dominated by questions of national security. Unless John McCain pulls another big comeback, it’s likely that 2008 will mark the first presidential election since World War II which does not feature at least one veteran as a major party nominee. A background which included at least basic military service used to be virtually a prerequisite for a serious political career. 31 of 42 US presidents had been in the military.
It’s changing dramatically in Congress, as well. Before the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, marking the end of the Cold War, the Senate and House were dominated by veterans. Now they are a decided minority. 68% of the Senate and 48% of the House were vets in 1991. Today, according to the Military Officers Association of America, it’s 29% of the Senate and 23% of the House. My personal observation is that some of the most hawkish people I’ve ever met would never have worn a uniform in their youth.
** PRESIDENT BUSH, GRAHAM GREENE, AND THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE. President George W. Bush’s speech Wednesday to the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Kansas City was most interesting, of course, for his invocation of the specter of Vietnam, the analogy he’s long resisted, as the reason to stay the latest course in Iraq. But it was also intriguing as a look into his state of mind.
In the speech, he prefaced his call to avoid a Vietnam-style bloodbath in Iraq (and his view of Vietnam requires a certain ideological cast of mind as to the causes of the killing) by discussing the work of British novelist Graham Greene. In particular, Greene’s 1955 novel “The Quiet American.” In that novel, Greene presages the coming American intervention in Vietnam. At the time, the first Indochina War was going on between the French colonialists and the Communist nationalists. But Greene, who’d been a journalist in Vietnam, saw the coming American intervention years before the American public had a clue.
Bush clearly identifies with the character Alden Pyle, a man who turns out to be a CIA agent, who Bush says is seen in the novel as “a symbol of American purpose, patriotism, and dangerous naivete.”
Which, of course, as Bush very well knows, is what many people say of Bush himself. The president clearly relishes the description of Pyle as he states it.
Bush quotes from a character in the novel saying: “I never knew a man who had better motives for all the trouble he caused.”
Which would be the best spin on what Bush’s critics say of him.
It’s intriguing that the president identifies with Alden Pyle, who he describes as the main character in the novel. Actually, though he is the titular character, he is not the main character. The main character is the man making the rather waspish observations about Pyle, an older British journalist named Fowler who befriends the idealistic young American. Until Pyle makes a serious play for Fowler’s mistress, Phuong, who has a much more pragmatic view of romantic relationships than Pyle is used to. In the latest movie version, Michael Caine plays Fowler and Brendan Fraser plays Pyle.
Pyle, it turns out, is in Vietnam to build a “third force” alternative to the French colonialists and the Communists. Built around a strong man, of course, which was to be the American strategy in the 1960s after the French had lost and gone home.
Which brings us, in a particularly smooth segue, to yesterday’s National Intelligence Estimate. Issued by the U.S. director of national intelligence, whose office oversees the CIA and the rest of the alphabet soup of what is somewhat amusingly referred to as the Intelligence Community, this NIE (they’re issued periodically on major topics) is the best official amalgamation of judgment about the current state of play in Iraq.
Here are what I would describe as the pull quotes:
There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007. The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now, and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks. Coalition forces, working with Iraqi forces, tribal elements, and some Sunni insurgents, have reduced al-Qa’ida in Iraq’s (AQI) capabilities, restricted its freedom of movement, and denied it grassroots support in some areas.
However, the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among
civilians, remains high; Iraq’s sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively. There have been modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions.
We assess, to the extent that Coalition forces continue to conduct robust
counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), that Iraq’s security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance. Broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.
This is, frankly, a rather grim assessment. What the director of national intelligence, Admiral McConnell, is saying is that the surge strategy has succeeded only in halting the rate of the escalation of violence, and that the level of violence in Iraq remains very high. (The NIE doesn’t repeat some military claims of a 50% cut in violence.) That Al Qaeda in Iraq — which did not exist in Iraq in any significant way prior to the ouster of Saddam — has been dealt setbacks but retains a potent striking ability. (Witness our ongoing inability to account for the Americans captured over two months ago.)
The Iraqi government continues to be a disaster area, there is no reconciliation of the various factions, there has been none of the needed reforms to improve the state of governance in the country, and the government can’t provide needed basic services to its citizens.
In other words, the surge is stalling. Iraq is at stalemate. A new plan is needed.
** FIELD POLL FINDS FALLING CALIFORNIA SUPPORT FOR CONGRESS. The latest piece of the Field Poll, which was conducted August 3-12, has been released. Driven, apparently, by widespread dismay over Congress’s inability to do anything about Iraq, support in California for Congress has fallen to a 10-year low. Notably, however, congressional Democrats are nearly twice as popular as congressional Republicans
With regard to high-ranking individuals, support for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has plunged. She now has a 39% job approval rating, with 37% disapproval.
U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein is just a bit behind Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in job approval, with 56% approval to 28% disapproval. U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer is about ten points behind Schwarzenegger, who might run against her in 2010, in job approval, 48% to 33%.
** SCHWARZENEGGER SIGNS STATE BUDGET, LIVE WEBCAST AT NOON. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signs the California state budget at 12 noon today in the ornate Rotunda of the Capitol. The event will be webcast live.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 102nd day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices have risen slightly to the $69 to $71 per barrel range.
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| Comments (97) |
What I foud disturbing about the NIE is its emphasis on retaining security gains to the extent of not taking steps to move foward. That sounds like a quagmire, the Vietnam analogy Bush is trying to obscure with his recent comments. I think the whole Vietnam comparison is a classic Rove move of taking a weakness and turning it to your advantage–but this time I don’t think it is working. Bush is a weak/discredited messenger, note how much the significance of the Petraeus Report is its alleged source (albeit some reports now it will be more a product of the White House).
What happened to Schwarzeneger’s website?!
Dana – I agree that the NIE lacks any suggestions for positive, forceful, definitive action, which is of course what the Bush administration has never produced.
The governor’s web site has crashed.
The governor’s web site has crashed.
That sucks. This is the third time this week something got screwed up with his webcasts.
That was ridiculous. What a fiasco.
Bill Bradley : The governor’s web site has crashed.
Phil’s “Plumbers” at it again? ;-}
Up again – maybe the website ran out of funding, which was restored after the budget was signed.
At this point are there any means to engage in positive, forceful, definitive action? Hell, we don’t even seem to be laying groundwork for partition (which may be the eventual outcome, given historic divisions). And didn’t Patton always say the aim of the military is victory, not holding ground?
I fault Bush for lacking the self-knowledge to know why Rove’s overtures in the 90s of “Do what I say and you will be President in less than 10 years” was a bad idea he should have rejected. His skillset was a last name, genial manner and a crafty advisor.
>Hap Hazard :
Dana – I agree that the NIE lacks any suggestions for positive, forceful, definitive action, which is of course what the Bush administration has never produced.
Arnold took (I think) 4 questions at the end, including a question about the 2/3 vote. He left it on the table, but only as part of a larger buffet.
No Perata at the signing, just Nunez and Ackerman.
Right. There’s something of an explanation on the front page.
>Brasky :
Up again – maybe the website ran out of funding, which was restored after the budget was signed.
Aug 24, 2007 01:00 PM
Where was Mike Villines?
“problem with our database” is the kind of cryptic answer I expect from my tech support guys.
Besides, my answer contains 75% more irony.
It sounds better than “sudden onset of Grand Klong.”
“At this point are there any means to engage in positive, forceful, definitive action?”
Maybe we should have a reality TV show on CSPAN and different people can offer their ideas on how to solve the Iraq crisis. Then Americans could vote for the best answer and then that person could win something.
Oh wait, that’s SUPPOSED to be the campaign for the presidency…
I don’t know where Mike Villines was. He’s not in the photos of the state budget signing I’ve received.
Now the top generals are for a withdrawal!
Now the top generals are for a withdrawal!
“JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF CHAIRMAN REPORTEDLY WANTS IRAQ TROOP CUT”
Pace is obviously a long-haired peacenik. It’s guys like him that lost us Vietnam.
Oh, yes, Pace is a real peacenik.
After graduating from Annapolis, he did Basic at Quantico and went straight to Vietnam as a Marine rifle platoon leader in 1968.
“General Pace’s personal decorations include: Defense Distinguished Service Medal, with two oak leaf clusters; Defense Superior Service Medal; the Legion of Merit; Bronze Star Medal with Combat V; the Defense Meritorious Service Medal; Meritorious Service Medal with gold star; Navy Commendation Medal with Combat “V”; Navy Achievement Medal with gold star; and the Combat Action Ribbon.”
Oh, yes, Pace is a real peacenik.
After graduating from Annapolis, he did Basic at Quantico and went straight to Vietnam as a Marine rifle platoon leader in 1968.
“General Pace’s personal decorations include: Defense Distinguished Service Medal, with two oak leaf clusters; Defense Superior Service Medal; the Legion of Merit; Bronze Star Medal with Combat V; the Defense Meritorious Service Medal; Meritorious Service Medal with gold star; Navy Commendation Medal with Combat “V”; Navy Achievement Medal with gold star; and the Combat Action Ribbon.”
Here’s a picture of Pace’s “Fruit Salad”:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:PaceMedals2005.jpg
Damn – I almost beat you on that one.
I maintain extensive files.
More likely a strategic drawdown w/the Iraq security forces, etc. to take the lead. But yesterday I pulled the quote from the NIE that stated this would endanger losing the security gains made thus far. I think another theme is the surge is impractical longterm given the impact on the military of how long this war has dragged on (“worn and overstretched”).
Bush has taken miniscule favorable temporary gains to try and justify sustaining a failed disasterous mess that he has no startegy for winning or saving face with a withdrawl. Disgraceful!
>Jonas Blane :
Now the top generals are for a withdrawal!
“Bush has taken miniscule favorable temporary gains to try and justify sustaining a failed disasterous mess that he has no startegy for winning or saving face with a withdrawl.”
Dana – you are such a “The glass is 99% empty” kind of person
“Broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.”
well i don’t see there being any “fundamental shift” momentum any time in the near future – and i remain convinced that it can’t come from the US. so… stalled, yes!
and dana… i couldn’t agree more. (99% and all).
bill…
not much today on the chess game (ostensibly) over health care. GAS has got a bit of a sticky wicket i think. the reeps are looking for another place to screw him, and the Speaker is challenging him…. uhmmmm…. maybe he should just focus on keeping his site from crashing.
When asked if the glass is half empty of half full once, I replied I was concerned the glass was leaking…
>Brasky
Dana – you are such a “The glass is 99% empty” kind of person
I meant half empty or half full.
I think the Cigar Tent works very well for Schwarzenegger.
But he has to be very realistic about what he can get.
You gotta be more like our President and focus on that last 1%.
I mean, here’s a guy who is weepy-eyed nostalgic for the good ole days of Vietnam. He’s Mister Magoo wearing Rose Colored Glasses.
Mr. Bush is in clinical denial. The intel community describes a disaster. The generals are disagreeing. It would be comical if it were not preposterous.
Mr. Bush is in clinical denial. The intel community describes a disaster. The generals are disagreeing. It would be comical if it were not preposterous.
Keep kickin’ ass AG JB.
There is so much history to know to understand the geopolitics. How do you pronounce Brzezzinski?
Breh-zhinski.
“FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR BOOSTS OBAMA”
Nice analysis.
He’s still not my guy, but Obama continues to impress me.
“FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR BOOSTS OBAMA”
Nice analysis.
He’s still not my guy, but Obama continues to impress me.
Jerry Brown has got it going.
It’s a very good get.
Zbiggy is a better person to do battle with the Republicans than, say, Madeline Albright.
>Brasky :
“FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR BOOSTS OBAMA”
Nice analysis.
He’s still not my guy, but Obama continues to impress me.
Aug 24, 2007 05:29 PM
When he announced, I had him pegged as a paper tiger. Obama has proved he is MUCH more than that.
Can he get elected? I don’t know, but if experience was the best criteria for electability, Richardson and McCain would be the front runners.
I was quite skeptical of Obama at first. Though anyone who can speak as well as he can, which is to say, virturally no one else, clearly had something going on.
I heard about Obama’s Cuba speech on Morning Edition, driving from my place to the house of a classmate I’m carpooling with. (Am on break now, at final day my first residency — five days of all-day classes — in the Presidio MBA program.) I was really impressed that he was willing to get up there and make the case, and while I figured Hillary would critique him for it in one way or another, I was really appalled at how totally conventional and backwards-thinking her response was. I’m hoping that the polls showing that overall, the community supports his suggested course, will pan out in the election.
Incidentally, NWN passed 38,000 comments sometime in the last week.
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