President Bush discusses the novels of Graham Greene and why
the Iraq War is like the Vietnam War, the analogy he long resisted.
** FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR BOOSTS OBAMA. Former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, an architect of the Cold War aggressive containment policy under Presidenti Carter following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, gave a boost to Barack Obama’s presidential candidacy when he said on an episode of Al Hunt’s TV show airing later tonight on Bloomberg TV that Obama is best suited to lead the US into a new era.
“Obama recognizes that the challenge is a new face, a new sense of direction, a new definition of America’s role in the world,” Brzezinski said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt.”
“He has a sense of what is historically relevant, and what is needed from the United States in relationship to the world. “Being a former first lady doesn’t prepare you to be president. President Truman didn’t have much experience before he came to office. Neither did John Kennedy,” Brzezinski said.
Hillary Clinton’s foreign-policy approach is “very conventional,” Brzezinski said. “I don’t think the country needs to go back to what we had eight years ago.”
“There is a need for a fundamental rethinking of how we conduct world affairs,” he added. “And Obama seems to me to have both the guts and the intelligence to address that issue and to change the nature of America’s relationship with the world.” Brzezinski called for talks with America’s foes, saying: `What’s the hang-up about negotiating with the Syrians or with the Iranians? “What it in effect means is that you only talk to people who agree with you.”
When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, Brzezinski saw that they had created what could become their own Vietnam, and moved to back the Afghan resistance. A Polish emigre, he had previously encouraged dissident movements throughout Eastern Europe and championed the creation of the US Rapid Deployment Force, more closely associated now with Ronald Reagan. He was a sharp critic from the beginning of the Bush Iraq policy and favors a policy of engagement with all national actors in the Middle East.
** POTENTIAL REFUNDS IN MANIPULATION OF CALIFORNIA’S ELECTRIC POWER MARKET. The electric power crisis that gripped California in 2001 in the wake of a semi-deregulation of its market was later shown to have been in part due to manipulation by merchant power generators such as the late Enron Corp. Well after the fact, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) ordered some refunds of payments by California utility ratepayers to the companies. A federal court of appeals in San Francisco today issued a ruling that could potentially return $1.3 billion.
California’s attorney general had asked the court to reverse FERC’s refusal to grant refunds on short-term electric power purchased in the Pacific Northwest during that period. The attorney general argued before the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals that FERC erred in excluding the purchases from refund eligibility. The court agreed and sent the case back to FERC for reconsideration.
In a statement, Attorney General Jerry Brown said: “Today’s decision is a major victory for California ratepayers. I encourage FERC to promptly refund the more than one billion that was stolen from the people of California.”
** JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF CHAIRMAN REPORTEDLY WANTS IRAQ TROOP CUT. Reports are emerging that Marine General Peter Pace, America’s highest-ranking military officer as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wants US forces in Iraq cut by as much as half next year. The concern is that the frontline military is becoming worn and overstretched, and less than fully capable of responding to a new threat situation.
The question is how public Pace and other top brass, some of whom have criticized the Iraq mission from the beginning, will be with the theater commander, Army General David Petraeus, coming up with his long-awaited report in mid-September. The theater commander, of course, is out-ranked by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which consists of the commanding officers of each of the principal US armed forces — Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force.
But Petraeus is the pick of the White House, and the various aspects of post 9/11 combat have been directed on a much more political basis than is the norm, with regional combatant commands and theater commanders taking direction from the secretary of defense and the White House, and, in the case of the Afghan invasion, with the CIA running most of the show.
Pace steps down as JCS chairman this fall. In the wake of controversy over his disparaging views of gays, he was not renominated by President Bush. But the deeper reason was thought to have been the likelihood that his Senate hearing would have turned into a major inquiry into how the Iraq War has been run. Now, it may also have been that Pace was too far out of phase with the White House on the Iraq policy.
** SCHWARZENEGGER WEB SITE CRASHES IN MIDST OF STATE BUDGET SIGNING CEREMONY. Well, this is a first. In the midst of a live webcast of the California budget signing ceremony in the Capitol Rotunda, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s web site crashed. I’ve made inquiries but have no explanation as of yet.
UPDATE: Schwarzenegger press secretary Aaron McLear apologizes for the inconvenience and says they had a brief “problem with our database.”
** WHAT’S A LITTLE ELBOWING AMONG FRIENDS? Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez called Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s office this morning to request bill language for the Schwarzenegger health care plan. If he doesn’t get it, he’s saying that the governor’s concept paper — which is what he’s produced to date — will be submitted today to the legislative counsel for translation into bill form. Nunez then would schedule a vote on the governor’s plan for late next week. The analysis previously from the legislative counsel’s office is that it needs a two-thirds vote for passage.
** THE VANISHING VETS. Here is an oddity for an era in which US politics is dominated by questions of national security. Unless John McCain pulls another big comeback, it’s likely that 2008 will mark the first presidential election since World War II which does not feature at least one veteran as a major party nominee. A background which included at least basic military service used to be virtually a prerequisite for a serious political career. 31 of 42 US presidents had been in the military.
It’s changing dramatically in Congress, as well. Before the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, marking the end of the Cold War, the Senate and House were dominated by veterans. Now they are a decided minority. 68% of the Senate and 48% of the House were vets in 1991. Today, according to the Military Officers Association of America, it’s 29% of the Senate and 23% of the House. My personal observation is that some of the most hawkish people I’ve ever met would never have worn a uniform in their youth.
** PRESIDENT BUSH, GRAHAM GREENE, AND THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE. President George W. Bush’s speech Wednesday to the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Kansas City was most interesting, of course, for his invocation of the specter of Vietnam, the analogy he’s long resisted, as the reason to stay the latest course in Iraq. But it was also intriguing as a look into his state of mind.
In the speech, he prefaced his call to avoid a Vietnam-style bloodbath in Iraq (and his view of Vietnam requires a certain ideological cast of mind as to the causes of the killing) by discussing the work of British novelist Graham Greene. In particular, Greene’s 1955 novel “The Quiet American.” In that novel, Greene presages the coming American intervention in Vietnam. At the time, the first Indochina War was going on between the French colonialists and the Communist nationalists. But Greene, who’d been a journalist in Vietnam, saw the coming American intervention years before the American public had a clue.
Bush clearly identifies with the character Alden Pyle, a man who turns out to be a CIA agent, who Bush says is seen in the novel as “a symbol of American purpose, patriotism, and dangerous naivete.”
Which, of course, as Bush very well knows, is what many people say of Bush himself. The president clearly relishes the description of Pyle as he states it.
Bush quotes from a character in the novel saying: “I never knew a man who had better motives for all the trouble he caused.”
Which would be the best spin on what Bush’s critics say of him.
It’s intriguing that the president identifies with Alden Pyle, who he describes as the main character in the novel. Actually, though he is the titular character, he is not the main character. The main character is the man making the rather waspish observations about Pyle, an older British journalist named Fowler who befriends the idealistic young American. Until Pyle makes a serious play for Fowler’s mistress, Phuong, who has a much more pragmatic view of romantic relationships than Pyle is used to. In the latest movie version, Michael Caine plays Fowler and Brendan Fraser plays Pyle.
Pyle, it turns out, is in Vietnam to build a “third force” alternative to the French colonialists and the Communists. Built around a strong man, of course, which was to be the American strategy in the 1960s after the French had lost and gone home.
Which brings us, in a particularly smooth segue, to yesterday’s National Intelligence Estimate. Issued by the U.S. director of national intelligence, whose office oversees the CIA and the rest of the alphabet soup of what is somewhat amusingly referred to as the Intelligence Community, this NIE (they’re issued periodically on major topics) is the best official amalgamation of judgment about the current state of play in Iraq.
Here are what I would describe as the pull quotes:
There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007. The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now, and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks. Coalition forces, working with Iraqi forces, tribal elements, and some Sunni insurgents, have reduced al-Qa’ida in Iraq’s (AQI) capabilities, restricted its freedom of movement, and denied it grassroots support in some areas.
However, the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among
civilians, remains high; Iraq’s sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively. There have been modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions.
We assess, to the extent that Coalition forces continue to conduct robust
counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), that Iraq’s security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance. Broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.
This is, frankly, a rather grim assessment. What the director of national intelligence, Admiral McConnell, is saying is that the surge strategy has succeeded only in halting the rate of the escalation of violence, and that the level of violence in Iraq remains very high. (The NIE doesn’t repeat some military claims of a 50% cut in violence.) That Al Qaeda in Iraq — which did not exist in Iraq in any significant way prior to the ouster of Saddam — has been dealt setbacks but retains a potent striking ability. (Witness our ongoing inability to account for the Americans captured over two months ago.)
The Iraqi government continues to be a disaster area, there is no reconciliation of the various factions, there has been none of the needed reforms to improve the state of governance in the country, and the government can’t provide needed basic services to its citizens.
In other words, the surge is stalling. Iraq is at stalemate. A new plan is needed.
** FIELD POLL FINDS FALLING CALIFORNIA SUPPORT FOR CONGRESS. The latest piece of the Field Poll, which was conducted August 3-12, has been released. Driven, apparently, by widespread dismay over Congress’s inability to do anything about Iraq, support in California for Congress has fallen to a 10-year low. Notably, however, congressional Democrats are nearly twice as popular as congressional Republicans
With regard to high-ranking individuals, support for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has plunged. She now has a 39% job approval rating, with 37% disapproval.
U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein is just a bit behind Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in job approval, with 56% approval to 28% disapproval. U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer is about ten points behind Schwarzenegger, who might run against her in 2010, in job approval, 48% to 33%.
** SCHWARZENEGGER SIGNS STATE BUDGET, LIVE WEBCAST AT NOON. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signs the California state budget at 12 noon today in the ornate Rotunda of the Capitol. The event will be webcast live.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 102nd day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices have risen slightly to the $69 to $71 per barrel range.
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| Comments (97) |
I bet Bush didn’t really read the book.
I bet Bush didn’t really read the book.
He probably just doesn’t understand it.
No wonder Boxer is trying to raise money so early.
I don’t know that Schwarzenegger is going to run for the Senate, but Barbara is properly motivated.
I think he did read the book.
My view is he is trying to redo its meaning.
>Jonas Blane :
I bet Bush didn’t really read the book.
Aug 24, 2007 07:48 AM
Ann :
He probably just doesn’t understand it.
Aug 24, 2007 07:57 AM
Nice piece.
It escapes me how Bush can compare himself to Pyle. The man has no sense of irony, especially given the ultimate fate of Pyle.
Is Bush using the Vietnam references to get us prepared for a 30 year stay in Iraq? Or is he just looking for the lowest historic watermark for comparison to the failure of Iraq?
Given Bush’s new fascination with Vietnam, I would seriously worry that he sees Iran as Cambodia.
The NIE report is very damning: “…to the extent that Coalition forces continue to conduct robust counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), that Iraq’s security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high…”
How do we maintain current levels of counterinsurgency operations over the next 12 months if military experts say extending The Surge that long is unsustainable? Even if it WAS possible, the NIE says our best possible outcome is to further the stalemate!
It sounds to me like Graham Greene was totally right about Vietnam 10 years before the Gulf of Tonkin. If we’d left well enough alone BY STAYING OUT millions of lives would have been saved.
That point has been made. Certainly Greene’s novel looks very prescient in retrospect.
That point has been made. Certainly Greene’s novel looks very prescient in retrospect.
Thanks.
>Brasky :
Nice piece.
Aug 24, 2007 08:50 AM
I think he is saying to hell with irony. He’s trying through force of will to alter the meaning the novel.
>Brasky :
It escapes me how Bush can compare himself to Pyle. The man has no sense of irony, especially given the ultimate fate of Pyle.
I think he is saying to hell with irony. He’s trying through force of will to alter the meaning the novel.
>Brasky :
It escapes me how Bush can compare himself to Pyle. The man has no sense of irony, especially given the ultimate fate of Pyle.
Well, that is the question, isn’t it?
I think what our intelligence mandarins are saying between the lines here is that the Surge has failed.
>Brasky :
The NIE report is very damning: “…to the extent that Coalition forces continue to conduct robust counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), that Iraq’s security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high…”
How do we maintain current levels of counterinsurgency operations over the next 12 months if military experts say extending The Surge that long is unsustainable? Even if it WAS possible, the NIE says our best possible outcome is to further the stalemate!
Aug 24, 2007 08:57 AM
What I find interesting in the inter-party comparisons in the Field Poll is that all the overall movement seems to be in dropping satisfaction with the Dems, ostensibly over their inability to deliver on the war:
“Voters in this survey were also asked to offer separate ratings of the job performance of congressional Democrats and congressional Republicans. Results show that overall, Democratic members are seen in a more favorable light than their GOP counterparts. Thirty-three percent of voters approve of the job that Democrats are doing, while 19% have a favorable view of the
Republicans.
“However, voter perceptions of the performance of congressional Democrats has declined significantly since last March. Then, 47% approved of what the Democrats were doing in
Congress. But that has dropped to 33% approval today. Last March, 19% approved of the GOP congressional members’ performance, which is unchanged in today’s survey.”
That’s right.
Boxer dropped in the poll. Why is that?
Bush mispronounced Phnom Penh.
He pretends to know what happened in Cambodia and he can’t pronounce the name of the city.
I couldn’t watch the whole video – I missed that Len.
I noticed it, but decided not to load up what I wrote.
Very good distillation of the NIE and analysis of where we are. I think you are right that what they are saying is the surge has stalled.
In my opinion the surge is failing because it isn’t extensive enough. In just one example, they have done little to interdict the flow of personnel and military arms and equipment coming across the borders form Syria and Iran.
The pressure brought to bear on the war effort by opponents has always, I believe, had the Bush Administration on its heels, afraid to forcefully do what they needed to do from the outset. If they were going to go into Iraq, they should have not led with half measures and boneheaded stuff like de-commissioning the Sunnis, declaring victory after the initial invasion…
I think it’s perfectly obvious that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, etc. had no idea of what they were doing.
That includes the time when they had overwhelming support from the country and the media, because that is when the most fundamental mistakes were made.
Of course he didn’t read the book. Laura gave him the Classic Comix version. If anyone in the speech writing office had read the book it would have been the last thing they’d use.
Better yet he should read “The Great Gatsby”. Like Tom Buchanan he breaks things and lets others clean up his messes.
That includes the time when they had overwhelming support from the country and the media, because that is when the most fundamental mistakes were made.
I totally agree. IF they chose to go to Iraq, they should have gone in there and started immediately with the hated nation-building, kept Saddam’s army in place, but with a new command structure, seriously locked down the borders, and a few similar, additional measures, and we would have already been out of there for the most part, save a few intelligence, political and military advisors.
I believe he did read the book. He doesn’t believe what it’s about.
>richard locicero :
Of course he didn’t read the book. Laura gave him the Classic Comix version. If anyone in the speech writing office had read the book it would have been the last thing they’d use.
Better yet he should read “The Great Gatsby”. Like Tom Buchanan he breaks things and lets others clean up his messes.
Aug 24, 2007 10:20 AM
She’s frequently been below 50. Boxer has never been a particularly popular politician in California. She’s benefited from running against weak Republicans. A term which describes virtually every Republican who runs statewide.
>Ann :
Boxer dropped in the poll. Why is that?
Aug 24, 2007 09:39 AM
Well, they ignored the JCS recommendations.
But they DID start with nation-building.
On an idiotic model.
>I totally agree. IF they chose to go to Iraq, they should have gone in there and started immediately with the hated nation-building, kept Saddam’s army in place, but with a new command structure, seriously locked down the borders, and a few similar, additional measures, and we would have already been out of there for the most part, save a few intelligence, political and military advisors.
Aug 24, 2007 10:24 AM
The constant drumbeat about Bush’s supposed absence of native, academic intelligence gets a bit tiring.
Bush has a high IQ.
He’s not in Mensa, but he is quite intelligent.
Remember, folks, he doesn’t lose many debates.
Bush has a high IQ.
He’s not in Mensa, but he is quite intelligent.
Remember, folks, he doesn’t lose many debates.
Bush graduated from Yale. I am sure he had to read and understand books that weren’t Classic Comix books. He flew sophisticated jet airplanes that are not nearly as stable as commercial or general aviation aircraft. It is well documented that he and his administration have made idiotic blunders, but the man himself is not a retard.
Agreed – judgment and intelligence are two different things. I think a lot of what passes for Bush’s supposed stupidity are really examples of his arrogance.
sorry Bill about posting before refreshing the comment page in the browser, thereby posting redundancies
Actually, there is a record of Bush’s IQ, which I don’t have time to find, but I recall it being around 128. Which is very good.
Actually, some of the stupidest people I’ve ever met are people who are also some of the smartest.
But that is a whole discussion.
Actually, there is a record of Bush’s IQ, which I don’t have time to find, but I recall it being around 128. Which is very good.
Actually, some of the stupidest people I’ve ever met are people who are also some of the smartest.
But that is a whole discussion.
Right. The prez is actually trying to re-write Graham Greene’s classic novel.
>Brasky :
Agreed – judgment and intelligence are two different things. I think a lot of what passes for Bush’s supposed stupidity are really examples of his arrogance.
Aug 24, 2007 10:40 AM
Boxer has never impressed me, but I was proud of her this year when she publicly rescinded an award she had just given once she discovered he was a local chapter president of CAIR.
Well, how stupid is that?
I mean, about Bush trying to re-write Graham Greene. (I’m kidding.)
“We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved thus far.The impact of a change in mission on Iraq’s political and security environment and throughout the region probably would vary in intensity and suddenness of onset in relation to the rate and scale of a Coalition redeployment.”
This seems to say that shenanigans of Congress and the presidential candidates about redeployment and cutting off funding is awfully lame.
I would instead agree that Iraq is at stalemate. A new plan is needed
That’s a funny move by Fabian Nunez!
Actually many fought like hell to avoid serving.
>Bill
My personal observation is that some of the most hawkish people I’ve ever met would never have worn a uniform in their youth.
Do you include Senator Warner in that group?
Do you include Senator Warner in that group?
<Hap Hazard
This seems to say that shenanigans of Congress and the presidential candidates about redeployment and cutting off funding is awfully lame.
I think many of us are very reluctant to join the military when the probability of deployment to a combat zone is high.
HAha, that is a funny thing Nunez is doing.
Dana- Yes I do include Warner.
kudos to Nunez. Arnold has studiously avoided the legislative process since he began here, which is understandable for a person used to the private sector where orders are given, policy is set, and the employees simply carry it out. But Arnold’s refusal to go along to get along in the legislative process has cost him, in my estimation. The energy reorganization he tried twice would have happened if he (and his staff) had just agreed to give the proposal to one of the legislators who were at the ready to run with the plan.
The same is true on this health care proposal. He hasn’t even had one of his own concepts introduced and put in print so the public and the legislature and the interest groups could position themselves and declare their intentions…
If there is a deal to be done on comprehensive health care this year, which is rather doubtful, it could only happen if the process is used. Otherwise, we may get a pilot project or something, although a pilot might be the best way to wade into that water in any event.