Meanwhile, footage of Osama bin Laden surfaced in a new Al Qaeda video, some 50 seconds worth in a 40-minute tape. It’s unclear, however, when the footage was actually shot, and Bin Laden says nothing of a contemporary nature.
** GIULIANI’S CALIFORNIA LEADERSHIP TEAM. Rudy Giuliani, who leads in the early polling for the California Republican presidential primary next February 5th, has announced his California leadership group. Last week, NWN reported on his staff in the state. Here’s the list, with some analysis. Giuliani’s state chairman is Bill Simon, 2002 California Republican gubernatorial nominee. His state co-chairs are: Congresswoman Mary Bono, Congressman David Dreier, Congressman Jerry Lewis, Congressman Devin Nunes, Congressman George Radanovich, Congressman Ed Royce, Anaheim Mayor Curt Pringle, state Assemblyman Greg Aghazarian, Assemblyman Ted Gaines, Assemblywoman Sharon Runner, Assemblyman Cameron Smyth, former state Senator Chuck Poochigian, LA County Supervisor Mike Antonovich, Los Angeles County Supervisor, LA County Supervisor Don Knabe, Los Angeles County Supervisor, former state GOP chairman John Herrington, former state GOP chairman Robert Naylor, former state GOP chairman Frank Visco, state Board of Equalization member Michelle Steel, and LA businessman Dr. Joel Strom.
Simon, of course, was assistant US attorney in New York when Giuliani had the US attorneyship for that district. He’s an old friend of Giuliani’s, and son of a late GOP powerhouse and cabinet member, who was breakfasting with Giuliani in Manhattan when the hijacked planes hit on 9/11. After upsetting former LA Mayor Dick Riordan in the 2002 Republican primary, following then Governor Gray Davis’s intervention with $10 million in TV ads against Riordan, he ran a surprisingly close race against Davis in the fall. When the recall came around in 2003, he started off running again, but was persuaded by Arnold Schwarzenegger to drop out. He’s already playing a national role with the campaign as policy director.
Bono and Dreier were two more moderate Republicans very active in Schwarzenegger’s 2003 campaign. Dreier, in fact, was head of his transition team after the election. Pringle is a former speaker of the state Assembly who later ran for state treasurer. Runner was co-author of the Jessica’s Law anti-child molester initiative. Poochigian ran against Jerry Brown for California attorney general. Herrington was personnel chief in the Reagan White House and served as secretary of energy. And Steel is married to right-wing former state GOP chairman Shawn Steel.
This is a shrewd amalgam of savvy moderates with enough conservatives for crediblity in the primary.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET VOTE ON WEDNESDAY. Asssembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata announced this afternoon that there will be a vote on the California state budget on Wednesday. The Democratic leaders made plain their intention to force their Republican colleagues to either vote for a budget, or explain their reasons for not doing so and reveal their alternatives.
** SHOWER TIME. In the course of pushing for his $5.9 billion bond for new dams, underground water storage, and water transfer systems at the dramatically diminished San Luis Reservoir near Los Banos, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger talked about conservation. He says that his kids have new rules in the households. “There are no more 25 minute showers,” he declared. Showers at Chez Arnold/Maria are now limited to five minutes.
** CALI GOP: WE HAVE NO RESPONSIBLITY.Here’s a new commentary from Mike Der Manouel, one of the most favored posters on the conservative Republican Flash Report. He says that California’s Republican legislators have absolutely no responsiblity to spell out what they want to see cut from the state budget. Really. Here is his argument, in its entirety: One of the major fallacies in the budget commentary I have read on the 2007-08 State budget is that “Republicans have to show their hand” on spending “cuts” necessary to balance the budget. No, they don’t.
The responsiblity of Assembly Minority Leader Mike Villines and Senate Minority Dick Ackerman is simply this: oppose tax increases, clearly state the conditions under which sufficient GOP votes will be available for passage of a final budget plan and amendments. Contrary to what the popular pundrity is saying, the GOP has no duty, no responsiblity whatsoever, to suggest spending alternatives. Leave it to the Democrats and the Governor to come up with those adjustments. For too long, the GOP has surrendered the premise that we must suggest alternatives. Clearly, this is the responsiblity of the majority and the Governor. It comes with being in the majority.
** CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS FORMALLY DECIDE TO EXCLUDE INDEPENDENTS. Two of the top new far right leaders of the California Republican Party, Flash Report publisher and Southern California party vice chairman Jon Fleischman and state party vice chairman Tom Del Beccaro — whose lawsuit to disqualify former Governor Jerry Brown from being state attorney general predictably came a cropper at every level of the judicial system — successfully co-authored a measure at the state party’s executive board meeting to exclude independents from voting in next February’s California Republican presidential primary. Here is Fleischman’s commentary extolling the decision.
Independents, as readers know, are by far the fastest-growing group in California politics. The Republicans are now ceding the contest for their votes to the Democrats, who are all too happy to have them participate in their primary.
** MCCAIN CAMPAIGN IMPLOSION CONTINUES. The leaders of John McCain’s communications operation have now all resigned. That’s communications director Brian Jones, press secretary Danny Diaz, and deputy communications dirrector and rapid response chief Matt David are now out of the campaign. David, who played a leading role in Arnold Schwarzenegger’s re-election as governor of California, was, like the others, tied to McCain’s now former campaign manager, Terry Nelson.
** SCHWARZENEGGER PUSHES DAMS IN LIVE WEBCAST. Speaking of water, though not in the Arctic Sea, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will push his proposal to expand the state’s water storage systems this morning in a live webcast at 11:15 AM from the San Luis Reservoir outside Los Banos. Does this have anything to do with the state’s budget impasse? It might. Republicans want dams.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 65th day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
Barack Obama, seen in this NWN video, has established a huge fundraising
lead in the presidential race.
While a private poll shows Barack Obama starting to close the gap in the California presidential primary, here is the real news. In terms of money raised this year that can be used for the Democratic primaries, Obama has bested Hillary Clinton by an eye-popping $57 million to $41.4 million.
On the Democratic side of the presidential race, after all is said and done, Obama has more than matched Clinton’s fundraising, including her transfer of more than $10 million from her New York Senate race romp last year. Obama, matching her in conventional fundraising and besting her on the Internet, has $33 million cash on hand to her $32 million. And, in addition to the fact that much of her money can’t be used in the Democratic primaries, since he has well over 250,000 contributors to her, well, her campaign still won’t say how many contributors it has, his unprecedented edge for a tyro challenger is likely to grow as the campaign goes on.
On the Republican side, John McCain will attempt to restart for the third or fourth time following the meltdowns of his once frontrunning candidacy over Iraq, immigration, and money. While he raised over $11 million in the second quarter of this year, he spent virtually everything he’d raised in anticipation of the illusory goal of raising $100 million for the year. That’s a goal he was falling precisely 50% behind in the first half of the year.
Indeed, virtually all Republicans — while not in the straits of McCain, who may have tempted fate for the last time with his wildly unpopular co-authorship of the failed comprehensive immigration bill — are not only trailing their Democratic counterparts but are tailing off in general.
Rudy Giuliani, who still leads in most polls, though not in the earliest states, has actually done best, matching his first quarter performance and raising most of the Republicans. Mitt Romney, off to a great start in the first quarter, is staying competitive only by chipping in “loans” from his personal fortune. McCain, we know, is a disaster area.
Then there is Fred Thompson. Many expected him to declare his candidacy over the 4th of July, which I told you he would not. Now, after some promising but not overwhelming ventures into early primary states — following a less than wildly successful foray to Britain to establish himself as a world statesman and gain the favor of former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher — there is some equivocation about when he will declare his famously undeclared candidacy for president. While Thompson has shown the ability to use new media, there is still no substitute for conventional means, or else the likes of the Daily Kos would be more than a massive irritant for professional Democrats. …
Ali G interviews Britons-turned-Angelenos Victoria and David
Beckham. Posh and Becks. Risque. If you’re easily offended …
** MASSIVE CULTURAL WATERSHED MOMENT ARRIVES. With California in the midst of the most uneventful budget fight I’ve ever seen, the state’s command & control regulators and market-oriented cap & traders not quite grasping that the climate change bill they enacted doesn’t really say what either side wants you to think it does, and the presidential race gripped in — whoops, that’s what I’m writing for tomorrow — it’s time to turn to turn to matters of high culture and low comedy. Or have I got that mixed up?
I speak, of course, of the arrival in California of our new international superstar icons, Posh and Becks. That would be Victoria (“Don’t call me Vicky!”) and David Beckham.
Now, NWN has clearly not been at the media vanguard of the arrival of the former Spice Girl (Victoria was and is — they’ve got a reunion coming up! — Posh, naturally) turned fashion icon and the global soccer superstar. Although NWN is happy to present what I feel certain is the definitive interview of Becks and Posh above, conducted by the inimitable Ali G. (Better known as madcap Kazakh TV journalist, Borat, or perhaps as the brilliant Cambridge-educated writer, comedian, and actor Sacha Baron Cohen.)
Although I’m somewhat inclined to things British, I’m neither a soccer fan nor a Spice Girls fan. Although I do find soccer more interesting to watch than golf. Which is to say, hardly at all.
And yet, we already have had a political angle this past Friday, when Beckham was welcomed as the new star of the LA Galaxy professional soccer team at an elaborate ceremony. And controversial LA Mayor Antontio Villaraigosa, attempting to introduce him, was met with a chorus of boos and jeers.
See, this IS a political story.
Meanwhile, the pair have a special tomorrow night on NBC called Victoria Beckham: Coming To America. I’m sure you’ll all be tuning in.
Posh is already attempting to fit into multicultural LA. She bought the couple’s $22 million Beverly Hills mansion, which Becks just saw for the first time the other day.
For example, or should I say, por ejemplo, she is learning Spanish. To wit: “Donde es Gucci?” And, the always useful: “Tienes un Bentley?” For those not in the know, those phrases, respectively, if not respectfully: “Where is Gucci?” And … “Do you have a Bentley?”
Her new one just arrived, by the way, customized with “VB” on the Connolly leather headrests, as well as emblazoned on the chrome wheelcovers.
The couple have been criticized a bit in Britain for similar sentiments, such as her noting that she and Becks have “matching watches, matching dogs, and matching Jags.” Well, I guess she left her Jag in London. While they don’t have the same cars in LA, they are both basic black.
He’ll be driving one of the great global warmers, a custom Cadillac Escalade, in LA, doing his part to contribute to the greenhouse effect. No word yet on carbon offsets. Governor, you might want to make a suggestion there.
Now it may seem that they are the latest exemplars of hyper-consumption in an era of celebrity run riot. But that would ignore the fact that … Actually, I’m not sure what that would ignore.
Beckham was reportedly seriously considered for a knighthood by then Prime Minister Tony Blair. The longtime captain of the national soccer team, a position known as “England captain,” as well as star of Manchester United and then Real Madrid, played a leading role working with Blair in narrowly winning the 2012 Summer Olympic Games for London over Paris. The next day, July 7th, 2005, Al Qaeda struck London, with deadly effect. You see, we can’t quite get away from politics, can we?
In any event, although Beckham is a British icon, there was a significant backlash to the idea of him becoming Sir David. He is, after all, only 32. (Victoria is 33.) So Blair did not arrange his knighthood prior to leaving office. Although he did previously gain the OBE, Order of the Britsh Empire. Not that that there is an empire any more, mind you.
But for all their evident hyper-consumption, and the underlying question of why they deserve all the attention they get — he’s an older soccer player now and she’s at a dangerous age for a woman much better known for being glamorous and known than for being a singer or actress or even a great beauty — they actually seem like good company. Posh has a sense of humor, as you may have gathered. It’s especially evident in her Comic Relief interview with Ali G. Beckham, although a huge star who moves merchandise worldwide — his new LA Galaxy jersey has reportedly sold 250,000 units at nearly $100 per, and I barely know what the LA Galaxy is, or, rather, are, as the Brits would have it — is a very strong team player and decent role model. And basically a nice guy. (As I brace for people telling me what a philandering shit he is.)
It will be interesting to see this play out.
Coming this week, as the phenomenon continues. The meaning of Cool Britannia.
“Tell me what you want, what you really, really want …” California’s newest celeb icon may not be up on the budget impasse, but someone has to know what they really really want.
What do the conservative leaders of California’s Republican legislative caucuses and defeated Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides have in common? The amount of $2 billion. That’s how much the Republicans of the right, and the Democrat of the left, separately said they wanted eliminated from the state’s budget picture and the proposals of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Angelides said it last year, referring to $2 billion in corporate tax breaks he wanted gone, which he said would help him balance the budget as governor.
Republican leaders Mike Villines in the state Assembly and Dick Ackerman in the Senate are saying it right now, with regard to $2 billion in spending they want to cut from the budget in order to bring it into their version of balance.
Angelides, Villines, and Ackerman don’t have much in common ideologically. But they have something very much in common on the budget. Like Angelides before them, the Republican leaders won’t say what they want to cut.
Angelides, locked in a tough fight with ex-eBay honcho Steve Westly for the Democratic nomination, issued a bold promise that he would close corporate loopholes. But when challenged about what he would cut, Angelides, after some silly game playing — he said the specifics were on his web site, which they weren’t, as he rushed away — refused to say. He’d let us know after he was elected. And after a commission he appointed came up with tax breaks that happened to equal the very number he was calling for.
For their part, legislative Republicans have been rather, well, mum, on the question of what precisely they want cut. Like Angelides before them. At a Sacramento Press Club appearance last month, Villines described himself as “agnostic” on the question. Although now reportedly there is a list. Which they won’t make public! I e-mailed Villines, who’s a good guy, earlier this week, before the report of the secret list, asking him to identify the necessary cuts. I haven’t heard back from him.
It’s one thing for an undercooked candidate looking to a future that’s not going to happen to do this sort of thing. But this budget is right here and right now, and everyone involved is already in office.
While Republicans won’t say what they actually want to do, they have just spent a lot of energy on creating a new web site blasting an employer mandate health care plan as a huge job-killing tax and sending out a lot of material making the same argument. Which is odd, in its own unique way, in that the budget is an item for now. Health care is an item for later.
Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez says he will bring the budget to the floor for votes next week to force Republican legislators — several of whose votes are needed to pass a budget under the two-thirds vote constitutional requirement (California is one of only three states with this requirement), which is why we are witnessing this spectacle — to explain what they don’t like and what they want to cut. He also threatens to keep the Assembly in session until a budget is passed. Everyone had been expecting to go on vacation on July 20th.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, seen in this NWN video at last fall’s climate change bill signing ceremony in San Francisco, is in Florida today keynoting Republican Governor Charlie Crist’s climate change summit.
It would require Bush to submit by Oct. 16 a plan to “transition U.S. combat forces from policing the civil strife or sectarian violence in Iraq” to a narrow set of missions: protecting Iraqi borders, targeting terrorists, protecting U.S. assets and training Iraqi forces. Democrats will push for something much stronger, of course, but are still short of the votes needed to overcome procedural roadblocks, much less a presidential veto.
** SO YOU WANT TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT? Here’s what New Mexico Governor and former UN Ambassador Bill Richardson, leading longshot in the Democratic field, is up to now. He opened his Northern Nevada headquarters in Reno, then ventured to picturesque Elko, where he became the first presidential candidate since the 1950s to campaign. Next, he’s off to Utah, for a fundraiser in Salt Lake City and a speech to the Utah state party’s J-J Dinner. Then he flies to Los Angeles, all this is still today, mind you, to address a major Latino organization. Tomorrow he’s in New Mexico for fundraising. Oh, and some of that governor stuff, since he runs the state.
What’s a “J-J Dinner,” the eagle-eyed reader may ask, referring to the speech tonight in Salt Lake? It’s a Jefferson-Jackson dinner, referring to the two historic fathers of the Democratic Party, Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson. State parties around the country have them as major fundraisers. For some reason, and for some reason it’s never occurred to me until right now to wonder about this, the California Democrats have never done them in my not brief memory.
** ANTONIO BOOED AS BECKS AND POSH HIT L.A. FABIAN NAMED TO NATIONAL SOCCER BOARD. Global soccer superstar David Beckham was introduced today as the newest member of the LA Galaxy as he and his wife Victoria — “Posh Spice” of the Spice Girls — make their big move from Britain into LA. But LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was hit with a cascade of boos and jeers as he took the stage to make the introduction. You can view that here.
Meanwhile, Villaraigosa’s close friend and ally, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, a longtime player and huge fan who not infrequently has games on in his Capitol office, was today named to the national board of directors of U.S. Soccer, the body which oversees soccer at all levels in the country. He had been involved with Telemundo newscaster Mirthala Salinas, who covered both men journalistically, before Villaraigosa, but was divorced at the time.
Villaraigosa, incidentally, has been shelled in all kinds of media coverage, not the least of it being Jay Leno’s monologue on The Tonight Show. Here’s a sample, from Wednesday night: It was so hot our mayor was having sex with a reporter from an Alaskan TV station. That’s how hot.
That’s my favorite story. Here in Los Angeles, it turns out our mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa, was having a longtime affair with a Telemundo reporter. The reporter who covered him for the news. Typical politician, he didn’t actually admit it; he said he was illegally south of her border.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET WATCH. As reported yesterday, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez says he will bring the budget to the floor for votes next week to force Republican legislators — several of whose votes are needed to pass a budget under the two-thirds vote constitutional requirement (California is one of only three states with this requirement) — to explain what they don’t like and what they want to cut. He also threatens to keep the Assembly in session until a budget is passed.
Legislative Republicans have been quiet on the question of what precisely they want cut. Although reportedly there is a list. Which they won’t make public! Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines says another $2 billion or so needs to come out of the budget. I e-mailed Villines, who’s a good guy, night before last, asking him to identify the necessary cuts. I haven’t heard back from him.
By one of those odd quirks of fate, this is much like what Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides tried last year. He, too, said that $2 billion needed to be eliminated. In his case, it was corporate tax breaks, rather than spending programs. But when challenged about what he would cut, he, after some silly game playing, refused to say. He’d let us know after he was elected. And after a commission he appointed came up with tax breaks that happened to equal the very number he was calling for.
It’s one thing for an undercooked candidate looking to a future that’s not going to happen. But this budget is right here and right now, and everyone involved is already in office.
** THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGN IMPLOSION.Here’s an excellent story in the Wall Street Journal on the implosion of John McCain’s presidential campaign. Among other things, it says that his press and communications staff will quit tomorrow. Most of them, like much of the campaign, was recruited by departed campaign manager Terry Nelson, President Bush’s 2004 political director. The campaign has $2 million cash on hand; but owes $1.8 million. $750,000 of that is a disputed debt to a web operation owned by McCain’s 2000 campaign manager Rick Davis, now the campaign manager again.
But the crux of the story is about McCain’s chief strategist, John Weaver, one of those fairly unique types who essentially works with one politician. The mistakes of the campaign, some already discussed, in acting simultaneously as an establishment operation destined to raise $100 million this year — and spending as if it were so — and a maverick campaign. Dissatisfying both elements in the process.
** ARNOLD TO GREENHOUSE MIAMI. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today keynotes the climate change summit held by Florida’s new Republican Governor Charlie Crist. After Schwarzenegger’s speech, California’s governor will join Florida’s governor as he signs an executive order emulating California’s landmark law to curtail tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases, as well as several other measures following California’s lead on renewable energy and climate change policy.
Florida, until recently governed by President Bush’s brother Jeb, becomes the 12th state to follow California on vehicle emissions of greenhouse gases. Implementation of the law is being held up by the footdragging of Bush’s Environmental Protection Agency. Crist is the fourth notable Republican governor to join with Schwarzenegger on climate change, the others being Utah’s Jon Huntsman, Connecticut’s Jodi Rell, and New York’s George Pataki, who can be seen in the NWN video above.
** WESTLY’S CHINA TRIP. Former state Controller Steve Westly, the ex-eBay honcho who narrowly lost the Democratic gubernatorial nomination last June, and probably saved himself $40 to $50 million from a general election campaign against the righted (though hardly right) Arnold Schwarzenegger, spent 12 days in China recently. He was there on a fact-finding trip with his smart wife, Anita Yu Westly, and their two young kids. Which also doubled as a journey into the Eurasian family’s Chinese half of their heritage.
“It was a way for the kids, who study Chinese,” says Westly, “to get a real sense of China in a way they’ll never get here.” They’ll go back next year for the same purpose. It was also a way for Westly, who was recently featured on the cover of Venture Capital Journal, to get a closer sense of the world’s largest emerging economy, one which is fast assuming America’s traditional role as the world’s biggest polluter.
China is growing at an accelerating pace. In Westly’s view, the more advanced of the two Chinas, the coastal zone, is already catching up with the US, in terms of tech, style, and overall development. New York is thought of as skyscraper central. But he observes that, while the Big Apple has some 300 skyscrapers — buildings of 25 or more stories — Shanghai has 3000.
“On any given day,” Westly notes, “25 percent of the particulate matter in the smog above Los Angeles can be traced to China.” Westly, with his new Westly Group venture capital firm, is working out of the offices of the fabled Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield, and Byers firm on Sand Hill Road. His focus is on the emerging technologies of the greenhouse era, primarily new vehicles, new fuels, renewable energy. The goal being to use the market and technological innovation to cut greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of the existing and very heavy carbon load in the planet’s atmosphere. Westly is deeply involved with a number of such companies, including Tesla Motors (which is producing one of the world’s fastest sports cars, all “green”), as well as companies in such areas as solar energy and cellulosic (non-corn) ethanol fuel.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 62nd day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
Al Qaeda operational chief Dr. Aiman al-Zawahiri threatens the UK, Queen Elizabeth, and former Prime Minister Tony Blair in “Malicious Britain & Its Indian Slaves.”
After disappointing, as seen in an NWN video, in the Las Vegas forum in late March, Obama has been getting the hang of giving shorter, pithier answers, rather than try to cram variants of his lengthy speeches into the brief time allowed. It’s the sort of thing that comes with practice.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET RHETORIC HEATS UP. With California’s state budget now 12 days overdue, things are heating up today. After a couple of so-called Big 5 meetings earlier in the week, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was on the road, speaking to the Bay Area Council of business leaders, and the four Democratic and Republican legislative leaders met this morning. No agreement emerged. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez this afternoon accused Republicans of holding up the budget after Democrats cut a number of items Republicans had found objectionable.
Nunez says he will bring the budget to the floor for votes next week to force Republican legislators — several of whose votes are needed to pass a budget under the two-thirds vote constitutional requirement (California is one of only three states with this requirement) — to explain what they don’t like and what they want to cut. He also threatens to keep the Assembly in session until a budget is passed.
Legislative Republicans have been rather, well, mum, on the question of what precisely they want cut. Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines says another $2 billion or so needs to come out of the budget. I e-mailed Villines, who’s a good guy, yesterday asking him to identify the necessary cuts. I haven’t heard back from him.
** GIULIANI STAFFS UP IN CALIFORNIA. Rudy Giuliani, leading in the polls for the California Republican presidential primary, is staffing up for next year’s early contest. He’s made several appointments to run his campaign in the state. They include Brent Lowder, who was a top aide to 2002 Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon, as the executive director. Simon, of course, is an old friend and associate of Giuliani. Thomas Roberts, who has worked in several other states for the Bush/Cheney campaign and the Republican Party, will be the political director. And Steve Frank, former president of the California Republican Assembly and publisher of the very conservative California Political News and Views, is the campaign’s coalitions director.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi clocks in at 34%, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has a mere 20% positive rating. Of course, he’s less well known than the others. Yet 49% have an unfavorable view of him, as do 51% with Pelosi.
Who has the highest rating of the top administration and congressional figures? Secretary of State Condi Rice. She is 47% to the plus. And 47% to the negative.
** DEMOCRATS FLOCK TO NEVADA. Democrats are flocking to the Silver State, site of the second-in-nation presidential contest next January 19th.
John Edwards, who has high hopes for Nevada despite his current third place position there, did a town hall meeting in Las Vegas yesterday at the sheet metal workers union. His wife Elizabeth will open their Northern Nevada headquarters Sunday in Reno.
Bill Richardson, who also has high hopes there, despite his current fourth place in the polls, campaigns in Reno tomorrow, where he will open his Northern Nevada headquarters. Then tomorrow afternoon, the New Mexico governor and former UN ambassador will become the first Democratic presidential candidate in 50 years to campaign in fabulous Elko, one of the, shall we say, more outlying communities in the northern state’s desert.
Barack Obama has mostly private events tomorrow in the Las Vegas area, organizing his campaign, and will announce top Silver State supporters.
And Chris Dodd will also be campaigning in Northern Nevada tomorrow. The Senate Banking Committee chairman will hold a a picnic lunch in nearby Carson City — where this very long campaign began in February with the first of the Democrats’ presidential forums — while Richardson is campaigning in Reno, which is Nevada’s second largest city, with a population of some 200,000. Later in the afternoon, Dodd has a town hall in Reno.
Tonight, Dodd opens his state headquarters in Las Vegas. He joins Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Richardson, and Edwards in having a Vegas HQs.
In the video above, which was released late on Tuesday, Zawahiri threatens the queen and former prime minister: “I say to Elizabeth and Blair that your message has reached us and we are in the process of preparing for you a precise response.” Then he addresses new British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, now dealing with the aftermath of the failed terrorist attacks in London and Glasgow: “The policy of your predecessor has brought tragedy and defeat upon you, not only in Afghanistan and Iraq but also in the center of London. And if you did not understand, listen, we are ready to repeat it for you, with the permission of Allah. We are sure that you have quite understood it.”
While the progress of the Democratic bill, carried by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, is significant, what ultimately emerges will be worked out with Schwarzenegger, who has a somewhat different play.
Republican legislative leaders don’t seem to be part of anything along those lines. They have just spent a lot of energy on creating a new web site blasting the plan as a huge job-killing tax and sending out a lot of material making the same argument.
Intriguingly, more effort on the part of the conservative Republican leaders is going into spelling out problems with a health care plan than in spelling out what additional cuts they want in the state’s budget, which is now a week and a half overdue.
The Times Poll suffered greatly in reputation during thte 2003 California recall election. Its numbers were consistently out of phase with other public polls — as well as the private polls of both then Governor Gray Davis and candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger — in indicating lower levels of support for the recall and for Schwarzenegger than actually existed.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 61st day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
** SCHWARZENEGGER TO BE ON HAND FRIDAY AS FLORIDA ADOPTS CALIFORNIA-STYLE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will be in Miami on Friday, joining new Republican Governor Charlie Crist as he enacts executive orders following California’s lead on greenhouse gas emissions.
Florida, the nation’s fourth largest state — after California, New York, and Texas — will be the first Southeastern state to join California on the anti-greennhouse gas bandwagon. Crist’s Republican predecessor, Jeb Bush, brother of the current US president, had declined to take action on climate change. Crist is known to believe that Florida, as a coastal state, is well advised to act now to counter the greenhouse effect.
** LADY BIRD JOHNSON PASSES AWAY. Thanks to NWN readers Sacramento Solon and Adam Gottlieb for alerting the death of former First Lady Lady Bird Johnson. Perhaps more properly known as Claudia Alta Taylor Johnson, the former first lady was the longtime wife of the late President Lyndon Baines Johnson, who played the historically paradoxical roles of initiating the the Great Society social welfare programs of the 1960s and pushing the US into the quagmire of the Vietnam War. The quintessential Texan Johnson, a man of great appetites, only some of which were satisfied in the course of his marriage, was a legendary power broker as a Texas congressman and Senate majority leader. After being trounced by John F. Kennedy in his own 1960 presidential run, he bec ame JFK’s vice president and succeeded to the presidency upon Kennedy’s assassination in November 1963, ironically in what was then the principal city of Johnson’s home state of Texas, Dallas.
Johnson renounced his own run for re-election in 1968 after Senator Robert F. Kennedy, the former US Attorney General and his brother’s 1960 presidential campaign manager, declared his candidacy and promply became the new presidential frontrunner. RFK was himself assassinated at the now demolished Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles after winning the pivotal California Democratic presidential primary just over 29 years ago. LBJ’s chosen successor, then Vice President Hubert Humphrey, went on to lose the presidential race by an eyelash to Californian Richard Nixon, who’d been defeated in 1960 by Kennedy’s brother.
For her part, Lady Bird Johnson, while a soft-spoken woman in public as was customary of the era, was an early promoter of conservation. Which in turn was the progenitor of what we now call the environmental movement. Given the integral role which the Texas-based Brown & Root construction empire played in her husband’s career, this was something of an irony.
** JOHN AND ELIZABETH EDWARDS DO NEVADA. Expected to be much stronger in the second-in-the-nation contest of Nevada but finding himself a distant third there behind Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards did a big town hall meeting at noon today in Las Vegas at the sheetmetal workers union. Full report to follow. And wife Elizabeth Edwards opens their Reno campaign headquarters this Saturday at noon.
** UPDATE: The comment and publishing problems appear to have been solved. Meanwhile, it is lunch time, so I will catch you later.
** NOTE: PROBLEM WITH THE FORUM. There is a problem posting comments in the Forum section. I’ve notified the tech people.
** KITTIES AND DOGGIES STILL SAFE FROM SCALPEL IN CALI. That bill by LA Assemblyman Lloyd Levine to require the neutering of all dogs and cats in California over the age of six months was shelved this morning in a state Senate committee. Until next year. Don’t expect it to pass in an election year. You’re still free to smoke on the beach in California, too. Ocean breezes still exist on the Pacific.
** THE DECLINING (OR NEGATIVE) INFLUENCE OF THE LOS ANGELES TIMES.From the Hotline: THOMPSON: Bury This Story At Wounded Times Reputation
Conservatives pushing back against the LA Times 7/7 hit job claiming Fred Thompson lobbied for abortion rights groups believe they have the LAT on the run. NRO’s Jim Geraghty notes that National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Assn pres. Judith DeSarno’s recollection that she specifically remembered Thompson reenacting a “cowboy death scene” from one of his movies has been removed from the current version of the LAT story after it was pointed out that Thompson had not acted in a cowboy movie till “Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee” this year. Also chipping in, Race 4 ’08s Tommy Oliver links to then-WH CoS John Sununu’s denial of the LA Times claims and comments: “pretty harsh words from Sununu leveled at the LAT, and the group making these accusations.”
The Brody File confirms that the Times assertions are gaining zero traction among social conservatives, quoting Family Research Council pres. Tony Perkins: “From what I’ve heard people are not biting on the story. They consider the source as well as the modus operandi, someone steps forward who is pro-life and is appealing to conservatives and he is attacked for being pro-abortion in an effort to drive a wedge between him and the base.” AmSpec Blog’s Philip Klein explains the actual impact of the Times story: “a huge coup for Thompson by rallying conservatives on his behalf against the mainstream media.”
Thompson himself picks up on that exact message in Part II of his interview with RedState’s Erick Ericksonhere . Thompson also defends the decision to remove Saddam Hussein, adding: “we must do everything possible to win the war.”
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 60th day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
Things can only get better. Or not. John McCain sings. In better days.
Whither John McCain? The erstwhile Republican presidential frontrunner, who still runs second in California and has major Golden State backers, saw his support melt down among moderates and independents over Iraq, only to re-emerge as a leading candidate and then see his support melt down once again, this time amongst conservatives over immigration.
The Arizona senator is now in deep trouble yet again after raising a respectable but disappointing $25 million in the first half of the year. He and his leadership expected twice that, and and as a result spent heavily as though he was an establishment lock rather than the maverick he always was before. This has left him with only $2 million cash on hand, less than fringe candidate Ron Paul. But that’s not the worst of it.
Campaign manager Terry Nelson and chief strategist John Weaver both resigned yesterday morning. It was not a development anticipated in the McCain campaign, and the situation remains in flux. Nelson, political director for George W. Bush’s re-election campaign, according to sources offered his resignation to McCain prior to the senator’s trip to Iraq over the 4th of July. It was not accepted. But after McCain returned from his latest tour of the dramatically lagging war zone, he met with Nelson and Weaver and decided to accept their resignations.
Then, in the next of a series of rapid fire developments which also saw the departures of his deputy campaign manager and political director, Mark Salter, perhaps the aide closest to John McCain and co-author of his books, including the best-selling memoir “Faith Of My Fathers,” also resigned. Salter was McCain’s senatorial chief of staff. The new campaign manager is Rick Davis, who had the top operational role in 2000 but a lesser role this time around.
Salter was chief operational officer of the McCain campaign, but his role was much more resonant than that. He helped McCain give voice to his story and thoughts. In “Faith Of My Fathers,” which also became a popular cable movie, McCain and Salter tell the story of McCain’s upbringing as the son and grandson of four-star admirals. It’s a story of a bright, rebellious young man, the hardest-partying pilot in the Navy, whose life takes a decided turn toward the serious in the crucible of Vietnam. And of the aftermath of that experience with which we’ve all become familiar. Since his resignation, it’s emerged that Salter will continue as an unpaid advisor to McCain, and will accompany him on his visit this weekend to New Hampshire, site of perhaps his greatest political triumph, his victory in the 2000 New Hampshire presidential primary.
As discussed below, just yesterday, McCain’s once frontrunning candidacy declined sharply under the weight of his backing for the Iraq War, recovered to a significant extent, then declined sharply over the immigration issue. Now, with only $2 million cash on hand after raising a more than respectable $25 million in the first half of the year, the Vietnam War hero faces tough choices. If he takes federal matching funds, he has an immediate infusion of $6 million with more down the pike, and floats his campaign off the shoals, certainly giving him the ability to compete in the early states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina with a more people-oriented campaign. But taking federal money means taking federal spending limits, and should he get through the primaries that would be a distinct disadvantage against either of the two fundraising champ Democratic frontrunners, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
Despite all these woes, McCain runs second in the most recent California poll, conducted late last month, in the latest Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll. Among Republicans, it’s Rudy Giuliani 29%, John McCain 15%, Mitt Romney 12%, and Fred Thompson 11%. Although Thompson is riding a wave of national publicity, and leading in some other early states, he isn’t catching on yet in California, the biggest primary prize of all, coming next February 5th.
Top California Republicans have embraced McCain. Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign manager Steve Schmidt is a senior advisor. Schwarzenegger rapid response chief Matt David is deputy communications director. Schwarzenegger fundraising coordinator Marty Wilson and Schwarzenegger 2003 campaign manager Bob White, who’s known McCain since his Senate days as Pete Wilson’s chief of staff, have offered financial backing. As have Orange County power broker Donald Bren and Bay Area financial maven Gary Shansby. McCain, who with independent Senator Joe Lieberman offered a greenhouse gas regulation bill, has appeared with Schwarzenegger himself in a climate change event.
Prior to that California poll, after his first meltdown over Iraq, McCain regained the lead in two of the first four contests, those in Nevada and South Carolina. But after his immigration meltdown among Republicans — McCain co-authored the failed comprehensive immigration bill with Senator Ted Kennedy — McCain has fallen back in those states as well.
Whatever the ebbs and flows — and right now the ebbs are far more marked than the flows — it’s important to remember that John McCain has been a galvanizing figure in American political life. There was a time, in 2000, when it seemed he was the figure who could unify what subsequently proved to be a badly divided nation. Had he been president of the United States on 9/11, rather than the former National Guardsman George W. Bush, the former senior naval officer and Vietnam War hero with decades of international experience — as distinguished from Bush, for whom a trip to Mexicali had counted as a foreign tour — might have led the nation in a much more successful fashion. He knew, for example, unlike the misbegotten architects of the operation, that the invasion of Iraq was undertaken with far too few forces to successfully provide security and restore infrastructure.
But all that is speculation, albeit pretty informed speculation, for another time. For now, John McCain’s latest presidential candidacy is decidedly on the ropes. Whether McCain can resurrect this campaign for yet a third time is very much an open, and longshot, question.
Al Qaeda forces demonstrate a new technique for attacking
American troops in Iraq in this Al Jazeera report.
** NAVY SEALS DEAD IN BAGHDAD. Three US Navy Seals, the elite of America’s special operations forces, were killed over the weekend in Baghdad. This much I know from official sources. I’ve seen nothing else on this, certainly not in the mainstream media, and the military are mum on the circumstances of the deaths of these commandos in Iraq’s capital city.
** AN ANNOUNCEMENT. The California state Senate has somewhat portentously announced that it will not take up the appointment of Mary Nichols to be “a member of the California Air Resources Board” until July 17th. On account of a very busy schedule at Senate Rules Committee. As if they might consider turning down Nichols — a top environmental official for Jerry Brown and Bill Clinton — who is actually the new appointee as chair of the Air Resources Board.
** CALIFORNIA’S TROUBLED PRISONS. The federal trustee for the troubled health care system of California’s prison system, Bob Sillen, spoke to the monthly luncheon of the Sacramento Press Club. While I don’t think any particular news was committed, there may well be much longer reports in some of California’s daily newspapers. While it was not news-breaking, it was interesting, and I gathered material, and some video footage, for use in a future column when this issue is again on the frontburner.
Sillen strikes me as a smart, down to earth guy. He really might not want to describe himself as a “legend,” however, even though he does — at least in legal theory — have, as he pointed out, the ability to reach into California’s general fund and extract a lot of money to pay for better health care for California prisoners. In his view, as he put it, if Californians knew how bad things are for prisoners, they would have a very different view about all the tough on crime measures they support. Actually, I think that most Californians are happy enough to have prisoners stacked like cord wood, out of sight and out of mind. But what do I know about California politics?
Sillen is clearly a crusader, but he will succeed ultimately in forcing some change. In fact, he already has. As he pointed out, absent the threat of federal intervention, it’s unlikely that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders of both parties would have come together on the major bill this spring to start alleviating the overcrowding problem, provide for more rehabilitation, etc. Of course, this is not good enough for Sillen, and it’s probably not good enough, period. He says that expanding the capacity of the system will actually make his particular job somewhat harder, as he will have to find adequate health care for an even greater number of prisoners.
In the end, he thinks that sentencing reform — perhaps forced by federal judges, a prospect he would not predict — is key to leveling off and perhaps limiting the number of prisoners in the state. In the meantime, Sillen has succeeded in forcing the expenditure of more state general fund money on prisoners, at a time in which California, ironically, does not provide for health care for all its children.
He doesn’t hold Govenor Arnold Schwarzenegger, with whom he’s met privately three times, responsible, or even the current Legislature. It’s something that’s been building for decades, as he puts it. He somewhat sardonically referred to governors and legislatures of the past as being responsible. More seriously, he dubbed it a problem of politics in California. As to any proximate causes, he did note that the prison guards union — which I’ve noticed that the Sacramento Bee has taken to calling the prison “officers” union — is an “interesting” organization. He said the union, formally the California Correctional Prison Officers Association, is largely responsible for convincing Californians that the prisons are a uniquely dangerous place populated by very dangerous people. And he cited the union for creating “wholly-owned subsidiaries” in the form of various victims rights organizations. Come to think of it, I did notice back in the ’90s — after then state Democratic chairman Phil Angelides forged an alliance with the guards union that led to them becoming “underwriters” of the state Democratic conventions, along with the teachers union and Indian tribes — that the victims rights groups tended to have their headquarters at the guards union’s headquarters.
** SUSAN KENNEDY SPEAKS! And it’s not here. And I have her numbers and e-mail and all that. Instead, it’s in her “hometown newspaper.” The Marin Independent-Journal. Wait, that’s my hometown newspaper. Along with the San Francisco Chronicle. And the, ah, Mt. Weather (Or Not) Gazette. Kennedy’s from Pennsylvania. What’s the hometown newspaper of Three Mile Island? I’ve known Kennedy, the Democratic chief of staff to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, longer than some of you have been alive. (Yes, an acquaintanceship from pre-school.) Hmm, maybe we should have put her on the CED political action team back in the day. Or maybe I shouldn’t have ripped her, and Schwarzenegger, after she was appointed the guv’s chief of staff following his Year of Debacle, once known as the Year of Reform.
Anyway, kidding aside, it’s an interesting, if predictable, read. You’ve got our old friend Garry South talking about how they both hated the left for pushing Gray Davis to take a lot of unpopular steps in the latter stages of his governorship. Yep, we got it. That’s what people in politics do when they’ve got you over a barrel. You’ve got our old friend Bob Mulholland ascribing Kennedy’s actions of late to her “teenage girl infatuation with Schwarzenegger.” Er, Bob, we always knew she was, well, gay. Notice I haven’t quoted Mulholland since I got him to divulge the master strategy by which Governor Phil Angelides would get Republican legislators to vote for tax hikes. “We’ll take away their cars if they won’t.”
Okay then. Anyway, back to reality land, there is a great bit in there about her finally finishing her college degree — she was student co-director of Students for Economic Democracy back when I met her — at St. Mary’s. (Where Schwarzenegger actually spoke at her graduation ceremony, which was a fairly cool thing to do.) And Kennedy listening to tapes driving across the infamous Highway 37 between Marin and Vallejo, and getting tutoring from economic advisor David Crane.
** U.S. NAMES COMMANDER OF NEW AFRICA COMMAND. The U.S. Armed Forces have a new unified combatant command in formation, and a new commander for that command. It’s the Africa Command. Currently, military relations and operations in Africa are handled separately by the European Command, the Central Command (which has its hands full with the Middle East), and the Pacific Command. But with Africa clearly a continent in distress, and with terrorist organizatiions seeking safe havens there, notably Al Qaeda and affiliates, a new command is being established.
The new Africa Command will be headed by General William “Kip” Ward, who was appointed today. Ward is currently deputy commander of European Command. An African American, Ward began his Army career as a platoon commander in the 82nd Airborne Division. Here’s his bio.
Ward will continue to work out of Europe while the new AfriCom is set up. This is a very key development, as Defense Secretary Bob Gates plans ahead for the fight against Islamic jihadist terrorists after the Iraq crisis is settled.
UPDATE: I was told the link to Ward’s bio above didn’t work. It turned out the military changed it from European Command to the brand new Africa Command on the DoD servers. Here it is.
** BUSH DEFENDS SURGE, BUT … President Bush finally got to Iraq after a discursive address to a Cleveland town hall meeting. The long and the short of it is that he defended the “surge” and wants more time to see if it works. But the long and the short of it is that he positioned the surge as necessary for a settlement of the crisis, to create a more stable situation and hence set the table for withdrawal. The central problem, among others for Bush, is that the Iraqi government is not accomplishing any of the benchmarks necessary for success.
My take, as it’s been from the beginning, is that Bush will continue his slide toward the Iraq Study Group recommendations. (Which were to stabilize the country in advance of a withdrawal while re-starting the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, engaging with Iran and Syria and so on.) But the timelines are different because he’s taking so long to get to that place.
** GIULIANI NAMES NEOCONSERVATIVE FOUNDER NORMAN PODHORETZ SENIOR FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR. Rudy Giuliani, who still leads in most national polls of the Republican presidential race, this morning named his foreign policy advisory team. It will be headed up by Charles Hill, a fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford and a veteran foreign service officer who was executive aide to then Secretary of State George Shultz. The campaign’s chief economic advisor, Michael Boskin, is also at Stanford.
The biggest name on Giuliani’s foreign policy team is that of Norman Podhoretz, founder of Commentary magazine, with the title of senior foreign policy advisor. In many ways, he is the father of the neoconservative tendency in American politics. He has followed, actually, defined the arc of the neoconservative. Far left and fairly pacifistic in youth; hard right and aggressively militaristic in age. (How boring that I don’t change my politics so dramatically.) Podhoretz reacted strongly against efforts to withdraw US forces from Vietnam, was naturally a hardline Cold Warrior, and strongly backed the Iraq War, believing that we are in a civilizational struggle. I’m fairly certain he supports the bombing of Iran.
** SCHWARZENEGGER HOLDING BUDGET TALKS, PREPPING FOR FLORIDA CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is holding private meetings in and around the Capitol today on the current California budget impasse. Later this week, as I reported last month, he’ll take part in a climate change summit in Florida held by the Sunshine State’s new Republican Governor Charlie Crist.
“I say to Elizabeth and Blair that your message has reached us and we are in the process of preparing for you a precise response,” said Zawahiri, a doctor who joined forces with Osama bin Laden after being imprisoned for unsuccessfully seeking to overthrow the Egyptian government, in a radio broacast. Former Prime Minister Blair is set to arrive in Jerusalem later this month to set up his office as Mideast peace envoy.
** MCCAIN SHAKE-UP ROLLS ON. Mark Salter, perhaps the aide closest to John McCain and co-author of his books, including the best-selling memoir “Faith Of My Fathers,” which is a really excellent book, has also just resigned. The new campaign manager is Rick Davis, who had the top operational role in 2000 but a lesser role this time around.
Salter was chief operational officer of the McCain campaign, but his role was much more resonant than that. He helped McCain give voice to his story and thoughts. In “Faith Of My Fathers,” which also became a popular cable movie, McCain and Salter tell the story of McCain’s upbringing as the son and grandson of four-star admirals. It’s a story of a bright, rebellious young man, the hardest-partying pilot in the Navy, whose life takes a decided turn toward the serious in the crucible of Vietnam. And of the aftermath of that experience with which we’ve all become familiar.
** JOHN MCCAIN’S CAMPAIGN MANAGER AND LONGTIME CHIEF STRATEGIST HAVE BOTH JUST RESIGNED. Campaign manager Terry Nelson and chief strategist John Weaver both resigned this morning. It was not a development broadly anticipated in the McCain campaign, and the situation remains in flux.
As does McCain’s candidacy. As discussed below, just a little earlier this morning, McCain’s once frontrunning candidacy declined sharply under the weight of his backing for the Iraq War, recovered to a significant extent, then declined sharply over the immigration issue. Now, with only $2 million cash on hand after raising a more than respectable $25 million in the first half of the year, the Vietnam War hero faces tough choices. If he takes federal matching funds, he has an immediate infusion of $6 million with more down the pike, and floats his campaign off the shoals, certainly giving him the ability to compete in the early states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina with a more people-oriented campaign. But taking federal money means taking federal spending limits, and should he get through the primaries that would be a distinct disadvantage against either of the two fundraising champ Democratic frontrunners.
Here are the statements from the now former leaders of the McCain for President campaign:
“This morning I informed Senator McCain that I would be resigning from his presidential campaign, effective immediately. It has been a tremendous honor to serve Senator McCain and work on his campaign. I believe John McCain is the most experienced and prepared candidate to represent the Republican Party and defeat the Democratic nominee next year.” – Terry Nelson, Campaign Manager
“As of today, I have resigned my position as chief strategist to John McCain’s presidential campaign. It has been my honor and a distinct privilege to serve someone who has always put our country first. I believe that most Americans will come to the conclusion that I have long known there is only one person equipped to serve as our nation’s chief executive and deal with the challenges we face, and that person is John McCain.” – John Weaver, Chief Strategist
UPDATE: And here is John McCain’s statement.“Today, John Weaver and Terry Nelson offered their resignations from my presidential campaign, which I accepted with regret and deep gratitude for their dedication, hard work and friendship. Terry is a consummate professional, who has ably lead this campaign through a challenging political environment. John Weaver has been my friend and trusted counselor for many years and to whom I am greatly indebted. In the days and weeks ahead this campaign will move forward, and I will continue to address the issues of greatest concern to the American people, laying out my vision for a secure and prosperous America.”
** CRUNCHING ON IRAQ. As Republican congresssional support for the Iraq War further declines, crunch time on the latest Iraq policy looks like it’s getting sooner than later. The new Gallup-USA Today poll, shows over 70% wanting withdrawal by next April, over 60% saying the invasion was a mistake, and two-thirds opposing President Bush’s commutation of the sentence of top aide Lewis “Scooter” Libby’s prison sentence.
Meanwhile, John McCain, the former Republican presidential frontrunner and staunch Iraq War backer who saw support melt away earlier this year among independents and moderates over his war stance, then had a bit of a comeback only to see his candidacy decline very sharply for his co-authorship of the failed comprehensive immigration bill, is back from Iraq and gives a Senate speech today and holds a town hall in New Hampshire at the end of the week. It will be very interesting to see what he has to say.
In April, as he rebooted his campaign for the first time, he spoke about Iraq at the Virginia Military Institute. “Democrats,” he said there, “argue we should redirect American resources to the ‘real’ War on Terror, of which Iraq is just a sideshow. But whether or not Al Qaeda terrorists were a present danger in Iraq before the war, there is no disputing they are there now, and their leaders recognize Iraq as the main battleground in the War on Terror.”
After his speech, I asked McCain how and when he would define success or failure for America in Iraq. He gave a thoughtful answer.
“There was too much loose talk about ‘dead-enders,’ and ‘mission accomplished,’” McCain said of the aftermath of the successful American-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. “We have a new commander now. We should give the new general (General David Petraeus, unanimously confirmed by the U.S. Senate) and new strategy a chance.”
McCain said it won’t be easy to tell how everything is going, but some things will be clear right away. “It’s hard to ascertain success or failure,” he said. “Militarily, there are many nuances. Politically, we will know fairly soon if the Maliki government is taking the needed steps.”
Those steps McCain sees as threefold: Sharing oil revenue with the Iraqi people. Allowing former Baath Party members to take on substantial roles. (The earlier de-Baathification policy proved disastrous in terms of the provisional government’s level of competence.) And holding elections in the provinces. “First time around,” McCain said, “the Sunni boycotted and the Shia were elected. Now the Sunni want to be part of the process.”
That’s the political side. What about the military side?
“On the military side,” said McCain, “it’s very mixed. The most spectacular and tragic aspect is the suicide bombers. Ask the Israelis about that. The suicide bombers still get through even with Israel sealing its borders.”
“We will see fairly soon if Prime Minister Maliki changes a sectarian government to an inclusive government,” McCain said, with confidence. “But this is going to be a tough road militarily. We’ve had four years of screwing this thing up. The early signs are a bit encouraging.
“I’ve talked to General Petraeus several times about this. He is a man of honor and a man of his word. If he thinks this is not succeeding, I’m sure he’ll tell the President and the American people.”
None of the targets McCain discussed then have been met.
** CALI BUDGET GRIDLOCK. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic and Republican legislative leaders held their first Big Five meeting in a while on the state budget deadlock. Democrats have pulled back from their plans for more spending. But Republicans say they want up to $2 billion in cuts. However, they won’t spell out what those cuts should be.
Okay then.
** YOU DON’T SAY?“Some twat with a Trot poster came up to me on the way in and yelled ‘butcher, traitor’ at me. These people make me vomit.”
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 59th day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
** MICHAEL MOORE FILM DOING WELL, NOT BOFFO. Michael Moore’s ballyhooed new documentary, Sicko, grossed $3.6 million over the weekend in domestic box office. That gives it a total of $11.5 million so far. Its trajectory looks like that of his 2002 Oscar winner for best documentary, Bowling for Columbine, which ended up with a $21.6 million domestic box office, very good for a documentary but far off his blockbuster Fahrenheit 9/11, which took in nearly $120 million in domestic box office recepits.
It’s a well-done film, entertaining even, for all its grim message about the problems of the US health care system. But even with a wave of publicity, it’s not packing them in at the box office. One factor may be the title, which is pretty off-putting. And of course it can’t compete with the slick and relentless marketing for summer blockbusters.
** OH, ABOUT THAT STATE BUDGET THING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was in the state Capitol in Sacramento today holding private conferences, some of which concerned the state budget, which is now about a week late. Republican legislators say they want $1.5 to $2 billion more cut out of the budget. But are vague about what those cuts might be.
Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, under a new kind of pressure with the revelation that his ex-girlfriend, a Spanish-language broadcaster who covered the speaker during their romantic relationship, is the very controversial girlfriend of his close ally and friend, LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, sent out a statement in all caps a little while ago: “ONE WOULD THINK THAT IT WOULD BE APPROPRIATE AT SOME POINT BETWEEN NOW AND THE FIRST OF DECEMBER THE GOVERNOR WOULD CALL A BIG FIVE MEETING SO THAT HIS LEADERSHIP COULD BEGIN TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE STALEMATE BETWEEN THE DEMOCRATIC AND THE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP ON THE BUDGET.”
Take a deep breath.
UPDATE: I’m informed by one of his strategists that the all caps statement from the speaker, the Internet equivalent of shouting, is the result of sending out the take from a transcription service, which reportedly make a habit of capitalizing everything. The Nunez statement, which he made after session today, was a couple of sentences long. And that Nunez is not feeling pressured as a result of the Villaraigosa contretemps. There you have it.
** FOUR FOUND GUILTY IN 2005 LONDON TERRORIST PLOT.Four men have just been found guilty in the so-called 7/21 plot. This was the copycat bombings attempted two weeks after the devastating 7/7 attacks. Unlike 7/7, in which the four bombers blew themselves up, everything went wrong for these four.
Meanwhile, British authorities are trying to sort out whether the failed attacks on London and Glasgow Airport following the handover of power from Tony Blair to Gordon Brown were Al Qaeda-directed or merely Al Qaeda-inspired. They say that one of the plotters is an associate of an Al Qaeda operative.
Latinos are projected to become the majority population of California in 2042. By 2050, the state’s demographic breakdown is projected to 52% Latino, 26% white, 13% Asian, and 5% black.
During the past dozen years, Carrick calculated the Democratic base vote in the most populous state had been almost 45 percent and the Republican base 38 percent; only dreadful candidates fall below those numbers.
However, he predicted the Democratic nominee could no longer take California for granted if Bloomberg ran, and probably “would have to spend a lot of money and time here.” This might alter the outcome. There might be similar effects in other states, some favoring the Republican candidate, others the Democrat.
Still, none of this adds up to Bloomberg having a shot at winning the necessary 270 electoral votes. Three years from now, Bloomberg will be a big deal in American life. It may be that he will return to lead his company to greater heights. Or he may be launching America’s second-largest foundation, which, given his drive and creativity, may prove as vital as the Gates Foundation.
Sheehan said not long ago that she was stepping away from the limelight, as she’d become very controversial. Her journey from plucky mother of a slain Iraq War soldier to someone hanging out with Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez has been an increasingly strange one. Of course, she couldn’t possibly beat Pelosi. How popular is the notion of Bush’s impeachment, which Democratic leaders are not going to pursue? One poll, by American Research Group, has 45% of the country supporting it. But that was taken over the 4th of July holiday, and seems suspect, as do a number of ARG polls.
** AL QAEDA’S AMERICAN PRISONERS STILL NOT LOCATED. American troops are now in the midst of a 58th day of searching for the remaining two US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda in an ambush south of Baghdad. They have had no luck so far. A video put out by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq claims that all three men were executed after being captured. But, with the exception of the Californian found floating in the Euphrates River, that claim can’t be confirmed. The US high command in Baghdad has revealed that ID cards for the other two American prisoners were found in an Al Qaeda safehouse on June 9th.
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