The defeat of the big immigration bill in the U.S. Senate yesterday ends, for now, a saga that began last year with massive demonstrations in Los Angeles and other cities around California and much of the country and confident predictions that “the wave of history,” as one organizer put it, would sweep over the political process and create a new era. But the wave crested and broke, and the actual legislation proved toxic to key elements in both major political parties.
Last year, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa spoke at a huge rally in LA. California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez helped lead a big march, then conferred in Washington with Senator Ted Kennedy, author with Republican John McCain of the bill to provide a pathway to legalization for 12 million illegal immigrants, increase border security, and create guest worker programs. It was a very heady time.
This year, demonstrations were much smaller, and Villaraigosa was out of town, touring Latin America at the time when police indiscriminately attacked protesters and journalists in his city’s MacArthur Park. The wheels on the unstoppable movement were coming off even before that. So what happened yesterday wasn’t much of a surprise.
After going down earlier this month on a procedural vote following the sunsetting of its guest worker program at the insistence of organized labor, the Senate comprehensive immigration revamp measure was revived, only to go down again yesterday on what most say is the final attempt before the 2008 elections. The bill needed 60 votes to end debate and move forward. It received only 46. Of which only 12 were Republican, yet another sign of the dramatically downsized influence of President George W. Bush.
Even had the bill managed to get out of the Senate, it likely would have languished in the House. Speaker Nancy Pelosi had told Bush he needed to provide 70 Republican votes there, as many Democratic members of Congress are opposed.
Indeed, most of organized labor — as I predicted last year when the immigration issue emerged as a frontburner matter following large demonstrations around the country — is opposed to this bill, which would provide a pathway to legalization for the 12 million or so illegal immigrants already here, some new border controls, and a large guest worker program. That ran very contrary to the claims made widely by enthusiasts for legalization and more immigration.
Although Republicans are getting the credit or blame, depending upon one’s perpsective for killing the bill, it’s interesting how little Democratic presidential candidates referred to it, much less championed it. They will all privately breathe a sigh of relief that they needn’t deal with it in their campaigns.
On the Republican side, everyone was opposed except John McCain, who co-authored the bill with Democratic Ted Kennedy. Having recovered from a poor start to this campaign, McCain saw his campaign smothered by the immigration issue. If he is to have a chance at the nomination, which he still does, he needed this bill to lose. Though I doubt he saw it that way.
McCain had seen his support in primaries around the country melt down over the perception that he was supporting “amnesty” for illegal immigrants already here — “criminal aliens” in the superheated parlance of the right and “undocumented workers” in the politically correct language of the left — and doing nothing of importance to secure the border against new illegal immigrants. Frontrunner Rudy Giuliani, a Republican moderate on the issue, piled on, noting that the bill lacked security provisions to identify and follow the movements of illegal immigrants.
On the other side of the spectrum, advocates heady with the enthusiasm of last year’s mass demonstrations claimed a united front that never actually existed. Support for humane and realistic treatment of illegal immigrants already here, many of them working jobs Americans don’t want, didn’t equate to support for a de facto open borders policy, which is how many viewed the bill. And more specifically to the point, claims of the backing of organized labor were vastly overblown.
While some unions have flourished by organizing illegal immigrants into their membership base, most of labor opposed the legislation, on account of its very liberal guest worker provisions. While these made some on the left, looking for ways to increase the number of people coming across the border, and many in the corporate world, looking for an assured supply of low-cost labor, they were anathema to most of labor.
For two reasons. First, they feared that guest workers would end up competing with their workers. Second, they believed that a larger supply of low-cost labor would have a down draft effect on wages overall.
There were other problems, of course, including the sense that the bill would make for a growing presence of unassimilated residents. Arnold Schwarzenegger and John Edwards both called for requirements that immigrants learn English.
But the deepest problem was that it was being pushed by a president, George W. Bush, who is highly distracted and lacks fundamental credibility as a leader. In order to solve this terribly complex issue in a humane and sophisticated way, serious presidential leadership will be required. With Bush’s head stuck in the miasma of his Iraq policy, his credibility burnt down to the waterline by the same, that was simply absent.
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Capitol Boy – I agree, but I also believe that we won’t get anywhere on this issue if the folks advancing the issue try to run this over everyone on a fast track without debate and hearings, and I think the best strategy is to move away from trying to solve the entire problem in one sitting. Time for some old fashioned creeping incrementalism.
It was a bizarre situation in which much of the Washington establishment with various interest and advocacy groups were trying to pass the most far-reaching social legislation in many years — with no national dialogue.
The latest immigration fire drill didn’t accomplish anything, other than preventing McCain from becoming president.
I don’t understand why the Democrats and Bush were so desperate to make it happen.
Unless I answered my own question (see paragraph 1 above)….
Bill: ” You know perfectly well that mass deportation is the grassroots mass message of your side of the debate.”
I guest the political players most supportive of those grassroots aren’t listening to them on that issue.
Bill: “I’m sure that a majority of Americans would strongly oppose any mass deportation of illegal immigrants.”
The more relevant question is they would oppose any. I think what is an acceptable level has a lot to do with the media. The reality is that the public exhibits some contradictory opinions concerning illegal immigration in the polls. For instance the NYT/CBS poll last month touted by the media as supporting amnesty had this question:
“74. Should illegal immigrants be prosecuted and deported for being in the U.S. illegally, or shouldn’t they?” 69% said they “Should be prosecuted” and 24% said they “Should not.”
Bill: ” I’m also sure that a majority of Americans thinks that our current border controls are a joke.”
It’s an expensive, cruel and deadly joke. You can’t control illegal immigration just at the border. Border talk often often masks and defies the underlying intentions of politicians. I believe polls have shown the public understands that the border alone won’t do and they pick workplace enforcement as the most effective option.
Bill: ” Yeah, it’s kind of amusing I have to spend any time defending myself for writing that illegal immigrants should be treated “humanely.”
As you well know that term can encompass just about anything depending on who is using it, making it a good tool for the implicitly charging anyone who disagrees as inhumane but not too useful for honest debate.
Build a real, not a virtual, fence. Hire sufficient customs and immigration staff to be able to process immigration applications, cure the backlog, and protect the border into the future. Deport all illegal immigrants who are felons. Adopt a policy, quota, or what have you regarding immigrants from all countries worldwide, and follow the policy, backed by enforcement of border security and visa policies.
Only after these measures are in place and are working, grant amnesty or a meaningful path to legal residency or citizen status to those who illegally entered the country under the previous arrangement.
I think overwhelming numbers of Americans would favor this approach.
This stuff doesn’t have to be hard, but as a former boss used to tell me when I suggested some Rube Goldberg solution, “you white folk always want to make things complicated.”
while this has been an entertaining thread to read, it is somewhat astounding that no has mentioned that one of the root causes of migration to the US from Mexico and Central America is the impact of the ‘free trade’ agreements. NAFTA’s great sucking sound not only is the loss of US manufacturing jobs but the loss of agricultural jobs and opportunities in Mexico and Central America.
Another point worth mentioning is that the raids on immigrant communities by Immigration Customs Enforcement agents were intended in part to sell the idea that a ‘guest worker’ program is necessary. One of the first raids, at Smithfield meat packing plants, just happened to occur during a union organizing drive by the United Food and Commercial Workers union. The labor movement has opposed the new guest worker provisions for the reasons Bill Bradley notes; also because Labor does want humane immigration reform and not a system that would create a class of indentured servants who are beholden to on employer/sponsor and have no rights to protest unsafe working conditions and employer abuses.
John Perkins said: “Laws concerning licenses, insurance, taxes, identify thief simply do not apply to illegal immigrates.”
I had no idea there were so many advantages to being an “illegal immigrate”. How do I sign up? I want all these benefits too. Maybe I can get on welfare and buy a Cadillac too.
The amnesty movement and this bill were doomed the moment hundreds of millions of American citizens were treated to huge crowds waving the Mexican flag on American soil. How stupid to pretend they really wanted to be Americans while flapping a foreign flag of a corrupt third world nation.
The amnesty movement and this bill were doomed the moment hundreds of millions of American citizens were treated to huge crowds waving the Mexican flag on American soil. How stupid to pretend they really wanted to be Americans while flapping a foreign flag of a corrupt third world nation.
To pass something meaningful, that speaks to legitimate concerns, requires Presidential leadership that is about more than calling some senators and sending lobbyists to Capitol Hill. It requires talking, listening, learning, and leading. Mr. Bush is woefully inadequate to the task.
Viva Mexico! lol
Juan
You can pick up almost any local newspaper in the Northeast on any day of the week and read about drivers picked up for driving while insured, without a licenses, no safety inspection, and using a false id while claiming they do not speak English who get off with nothing or merely a small fine.
Simply put if you are here illegally and then are caught by law enforcement committing additional illegal offenses you should be deported.
If illegals normally pay taxes then why was 5 years of back tax amnesty part of the No Illegal Left Behind Amnesty Act of 2007?
In my opinion if you secure the borders and crackdown on employers most illegals who came here to work will go back home because they no longer have a job.
There is nothing humane about allowing some to be able to live outside the rules and there is nothing humane about government forcing an individual to work for the benefit of another.
Jonathan
Government simply is not up to the task of doing anything positve or constructive no matter which of the 2 major parties is in control. Simply put government does not work because the less it does well the bigger in terms of power and money we as Americans allow it to become.
Moreover baby boomers are simply incapable of being leaders. So far the baby boomers have given us Qualye, Clinton, Gore, Bush, and Cheney. I would call this 0 for 5.
John Perkins
Juan
You can pick up almost any local newspaper in the Northeast on any day of the week and read about drivers picked up for driving while insured, without a licenses, no safety inspection, and using a false id while claiming they do not speak English who get off with nothing or merely a small fine.
Simply put if you are here illegally and then are caught by law enforcement committing additional illegal offenses you should be deported.
If illegals normally pay taxes then why was 5 years of back tax amnesty part of the No Illegal Left Behind Amnesty Act of 2007?
In my opinion if you secure the borders and crackdown on employers most illegals who came here to work will go back home because they no longer have a job.
There is nothing humane about allowing some to be able to live outside the rules and there is nothing humane about government forcing an individual to work for the benefit of another.
Jonathan
Government simply is not up to the task of doing anything positve or constructive no matter which of the 2 major parties is in control. Simply put government does not work because the less it does well the bigger in terms of power and money we as Americans allow it to become.
Moreover baby boomers are simply incapable of being leaders. So far the baby boomers have given us Qualye, Clinton, Gore, Bush, and Cheney. I would call this 0 for 5.
John Perkins
John – please post a link to one of these news stories you are refering to. Maybe it will give me ideas on how to break the law without consequences.
In the mean time, consider my plan for securing the border with Mexico. Build 20 walls 25 miles apart for 500 miles. Everyone North of the walls should feel safe and protected. I recommend tourist visiting the United States only visit South of the walls just in case they decide to overstay their welcome.
Spoken like a true right-wingnut. lol
Spoken like a true right-wingnut. lol
< Government simply is not up to the task of doing anything positve or constructive no matter which of the 2 major parties is in control.
Ted Kennedy’s motto:
Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what our country can do for you.
Juan
In general remember the primary role of government is to game the system in favor of one group over another. Currently government games the system for the general population on what they can refer to as victims. A noninclusion lists of factors they use in gaming the system is the set of things they say the private sector cannot discriminant.
The key is to be seen as a victim by government without actually allowing yourself to be a victim.
Government games the system three way.
1) Direct cash assistant to victims.
2) Moving a victim to the front of the list.
3) Implicitly allowing victims immunity from the laws.
The thing that made the No Illegal Left Behind Amnesty Act of 2007 so comprehensive is that it included multiple uses of three types of gaming.
John Perkins
Being a realistic this is what I want Congress and the President to do about illegal immigration.
Congress passes a bill requiring Public TV to play at noon everyday the following public service announcement from the President.
To those of you who are in violation of our immigration laws please return home. You have overstayed your welcome. If you need assistance in getting home dial 1-8000-GOHOME. See the web site http://www.pleasegohome.gov for additional details.
John Perkins
In an attempt to make the bill comprehensive let it read as follows:
Congress requires Public TV and NPR to play at noon everyday the following 2 public service announcement from the President.
To those noncitizens who are in violation of our immigration laws please return home. You have overstayed your welcome. If you need assistance in getting home dial 1-JUSTGOHOME. See the web site http://www.justgohome.gov for additional details.
To those employers in violation of our immigration laws please stop. If you need assistance in getting inexpensive American born labor dial 1-getcheaplabor. See the web site http://www.getcheaplabor.gov for additional details.
John Perkins
You’re kind of an imaginative guy there, John.
Mr. Bradley
I have come to realize that government is capable of doing little besides talking about an issue.
3 trillion is a lot to pay just for talk.
John Perkins
I’ll keep the utter failure of government in mind if I’m daring enough to walk out the door tomorrow morning. Not that you’ll ever read this, because there is no power for the computer and none of our infrastructure works.
Mr. Bradley
Typical response of a politican elite. Government is responsible for every thing positive in the world. The private sector and the average individual are the reason life is not the ideal place the elite want it to be. If only government had more power to dictate every expect of human life then things would be just perfect.
Late time I heard the trains ran well under Hilter. Does that mean Hilter was a good thing for Germany?
Government cannot or will not protect our borders. Why because Americans are refusing to do the jobs that need to be done according to our President. Yes sir those average working law adibing American citizens are just refusing to do their part. Cannot deport those illegals. Why? average Americans just do not have the stomach for it. Government cannot find buses to get people below sea level out of the way of a hurricane. Why because average Americans are racist. Presidents can lie under oath and the Senate says it is perfectly ok for a President to still be President despite doing something that normal people get send to jail. Why? Because the average Americans just do not have the will to see him punished.
The political elite never take responsibility. They take our money, our property, and our freedom and in return we are suppose to thank them. Well we might have to bend over and grab our ankles but I refuse to thank you after your done.
John Perkins
“Not that you’ll ever read this, because there is no power for the computer and none of our infrastructure works.”
Also, your computer has probably been stolen by the local strongman thug.
Living in Silicon Valley, I’m forced to interact with a disturbing number of wacky technoanarchists, who apparently think that the abolition of government would lead to a utopia, rather than, say, a Somalia.
Auros
Last time I looked 3 trillion is a lot to pay for a computer and a little law and order. Moreover most likely it is your local government and not the federal government who is supplying the protection for your physical computer.
By the way Clinton, Libby, Berger, Jefferson and 12 million illegals puts in question the issue of whether we have law and order in the United States.
Although I do agree we have a abundance of laws and the government is good at ordering around average American citizens and expecting us to abide by both.
I think it is interesting that anyone who questions the need for an ever expanding big government is considered an anarchist.
Seems to me it is Presidents and much of Congress who seems to think our laws should be applied in an arbitrary fashion and should apply only when it suits their purpose.
John Perkins