Democrat John Edwards has picked up steam lately with the blogosphere,
but his clear lead in Iowa has become a three-way statistical tie and he has
lost support in New Hampshire.
** BILL RICHARDSON TO FORMALLY ANNOUNCE HIS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY IN L.A., SETTING MORE WESTERN TRIPS. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, the former US ambassador to the UN and secretary of energy, who was born in Pasadena, will formally announce his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination on Monday at the Los Angeles Press Club. Richardson, the first major Latino presidential candidate, is expected to be flanked by a number of top California Latino leaders such as LA County Supervisor Gloria Molina, state Senator Gil Cedillo, and Lucy Casado, proprietor of the legendary Lucy’s El Adobe restaurant in Los Angeles. Richardson is showing movement in New Hampshire and Iowa, as seen below, and will make a major move in Nevada, with several trips on tap in June.
** GIULIANI’S NOT SO SURE ABOUT THE IMMIGRATION DEAL. Here’s the statement from leading Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani’s communications director, Katie Levinosn, on the outlines of the immigration reform deal between the White House and leading senators involved with the issue: “Rudy’s top priority and main objective is to ensure our borders are secure and to stop potential terrorists and criminals from coming in. The recent Fort Dix plot is a stark reminder that the threat of terrorism has made immigration an important matter of national security. We need to know who is coming in and who is going out of this country if we are going to deal with those who are here illegally.”
** WOLFOWITZ DOWN.World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz, a leading neoconservative intellectual who, as US deputy secretary of defense, was a principal architect of the Iraq War, will resign at the end of June. Wolfowitz came under tremendous fire for arranging a highly lucrative compensation package for his girlfriend. Although the White House tried to defend him, the European directors on the World Bank board were adamant that he had to go. Wolfowitz worked closely with ousted Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney in crafting the president’s failed Iraq policy. When it all went south, President Bush arranged to have him moved to the World Bank presidency. But the new post failed to revive his reputation. Indeed, he got into even worse trouble there, and has been forced to resign yet another very high-profile post under fire.
First the Democrats. It’s Clinton and Obama statistically tied, with 28% and 26%, respectively. Then comes John Edwards at 15% and Bill Richardson at 10%.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney’s heavy TV advertising and next door neighbor status (he was governor of Massachusetts) is paying off for now. He leads with 35% of the vote. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are tied at 19% each, with Fred Thompson at 6%. Of course, this poll was taken just before the Republican presidential debate in South Carolina, where McCain and Giuliani did well and Romney had problems.
** ALL TIED UP IN IOWA. Well, well. We seem to have a pair of threeway statistical ties in the presidential races in both parties in the first-in-the-nation state of Iowa.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney’s TV advertising has moved him up. He has 19% to John McCain’s 18% and Rudy Giuliani’s 18%. Fred Thompson is fourth with 9%. Romney is up and Giuliani is down, mostly among conservative Republcians, also in the wake of Romney’s appearance on 60 Minutes and the cover of Time magazine. The margin of error in both polls is over 4%.
** OBAMA RELEASES TAXES.Senator Barack Obama became the first presidential candidate in either party to release his taxes. Normally a regular practice by all serious candidates since the Watergate era, this time around it’s something that most reportedly will not do. John Edwards, for example, has already said that he will not release his taxes. While Obama is somewhat wealthy by most standards, the result of lucrative book deals yielding him a few million dollars over the past few years, he is much less so than Edwards, who increased his net worth by millions through his work for a hedge fund, and Hillary Clinton, whose husband, former President Bill Clinton, is an enormous draw on the international lecture circuit.
Hillary Clinton is asking supporters and, actually, anyone who can click on a choice on her web site, to help her pick her presidential campaign theme song. I’ve noticed that she has been regularly using the stirring “Right Here, Right Now,” by Jesus Jones. It’s one of the prominent choices on her voting list. It’s a terrific song, so maybe I shouldn’t say who else used that as his theme song.
** CALIFORNIA REDISTRICTING REFORM. Two bills cleared a state Senate committee yesterday. The Democratic leader of the Assembly is taking shots at the Democratic leader of the Senate. There are four or five other versions of redistricting reform floating around. Something has to move forward, or else Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger won’t support the term limits revision measure that Democratic legislative leaders really want. If Schwarzenegger doesn’t actively campaign for the term limits measure, it will lose.
The version of redistricting reform that moves forward will not be decided in a legislative committee hearing. It quite likely won’t even be a bill, per se. It will, like most very important pieces of legislation in this iteration of the term limits era, be the product of high-level negotiation.
Fred Thompson responds to Michael Moore’s challenge to a debate
on health care in Cuba.
** GIULIANI FEELING FINE AFTER DEBATE, DISCUSSES DISTINCTION BETWEEN TORTURE AND ENHANCED INTERROGATION TECHNIQUES. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, following a good performance in last night’s Republican presidential debate in South Carolina, had some interesting things to say in a conference call earlier today.
“The debate last night,” he said, “was a much better opportunity” than the first debate on May 3rd at Reagan Library. “It afforded us more time, with less interruptions. The Democrats,” he said, rather mischievously, “should do a Fox debate. They may find it’s a better opportunity to lay out their positions.”
Speaking of the Democrats, he put a big knock on them, saying that during their debate, “They never mentioned the words ‘Islamic fundamentalist terrorists.’” There is, he said, “a level of denial about what we’re facing.”
Asked about a decline for his numbers in a number of polls, Giuliani said: “I don’t pay attention to polls. Except I noticed one yesterday …,” he said, jokingly. In which, of course, he was ahead. “In almost all of them we’re ahead. I expect we’ll be up and down. In every state, we’re competitive. It’s a long campaign.”
He talked mainly about the war. In last night’s debate, the question of torture reared its head in a big way when the candidates were asked about how they would respond in a hypothetical, 24-style scenario in which a number of terrorist attacks had been successfully carried out inside America and suspects had been captured who could have critical intelligence.
“We shouldn’t embrace torture,” he said, while advocating “going right up to the limit.”
I asked Giuliani to define the distinction between torture and “enhanced interrogation techniques,” which he and others had endorsed last night in the Republican presidential debate.
“We have to leave it to the people who do it,” he said. “There is no bright line test. The technique last night (which was waterboarding, in which the interrogation subject undergoes a simulated drowning) is not torture.” The Republican presidential frontrunner went on to say that he had read former CIA Director George Tenet’s book and “Tenet doesn’t think it falls into the category of torture. The bright line test occurs internally. The technique last night is very aggressive but is short of torture. We have to define it this way.” He referred to “other procedures, some of which are too gory to discuss.”
“Our rationale is not that they (the terrorists) will comply with how we behave. We can be as careful as possible but we’re going to be dealing with people who won’t be impressed. They will do horrible things no matter what. We should do what we do as Americans.”
At the end of that, Giuliani was referring to John McCain’s argument, which is that torture is wrong for a variety of reasons. McCain, who was a prisoner of war in Hanoi for five-and-a-half years during the Vietnam War, says that people who are tortured are apt to say anything they think the interrogator wants to hear, and that resorting to torture removes protection from our troops when they are captured. McCain last night described waterboarding as torture, saying that it was invented in the Spanish Inquisition.
** VICTORY FOR CALIFORNIA’S STEM CELL RESEARCH PROGRAM. Anti-abortion and other conservative interests have been tying up California’s biggest-in-the-world stem cell research program — voters authorized $3 billion in bonding authority — through various legal challenges, although the state, thanks to a $150 million loan authorized by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, jump-started the program earlier this year. Today the California Supreme Court turned down the opponents’ bid to pursue their legal appeals after losing in the lower courts.
Said Schwarzenegger, who campaigned for the initiative, which passed in November 2004: “Today’s action by the California Supreme Court is a victory for our state because potentially life-saving science can continue without a shadow of legal doubt. This decision reaffirms voters’ will to keep California on the forefront of embryonic stem cell research. California’s leadership gives the best promise of finding a cure for deadly and debilitating diseases.”
State Controller John Chiang said: “I am pleased that the Supreme Court has reaffirmed the voters’ will and ended the litigation that tied up the funding for California’s investment in stem cell research. California can now issue the $3 billion in bonds to fund and accelerate stem cell research.”
Attorney General Jerry Brown, who defeated an anti-stem cell Republican in a landslide last November and defended the state’s position in court, said: “Today is a victory for California’s voters and medical science. This decision allows California to take on the groundbreaking scientific research that the Bush administration ignored.”
** LOS ANGELES AND LAS VEGAS TO HOST TWO OF THE SIX DEMOCRATIC PARTY-SANCTIONED PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE YEAR. Mark your calendars for the next six Democratic presidential debates. Two of them will be in the New West. Here’s the schedule from the California Democratic Party.
Although it is not in this announcement, I can tell you there will be another Democratic presidential debate in January in Las Vegas just prior to the Nevada presidential caucus.
The six DNC sanctioned debates and the media sponsors announced today are as follows:
· July 23, 2007: YouTube/Google and CNN* in Charleston, SC
· August 19, 2007: ABC in Des Moines, IA
· September 26, 2007: NBC News/MSNBC** in Hanover, NH
· October 30, 2007: NBC News/MSNBC** in Philadelphia, PA
· November 15, 2007: CNN* in Las Vegas, NV
· December 10, 2007: CBS in Los Angeles, CA
*Debate will be simulcast on CNN en Espanol.
**Telemundo will re-broadcast both debates.
** PRINCE HARRY WON’T GO TO IRAQ. Harry Windsor won’t be going to Iraq, after all. The young lieutenant had been slated to go to Iraq, where he would lead a troop of Scimitar armored reconnaisance vehicles. But Al Qaeda vowed to kidnap or assassinate him. The young royal was nonetheless eager to go, and plans were laid for an elite SAS (Special Air Service) commando detachment to provide security. But it was really all too much, and today the British Ministry of Defense announced that Harry won’t be going to Iraq.
** MY REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE RECAP.Here’s my recap of the Republican presidential debate last night in South Carolina, on PJ Media. Grab a cup of coffee; it’s only 2500 words long! I’ll have an assessment of the debate as its aftermath settles in further. For now, the thumbnail: Rudy Giuliani and John McCain up, Romney down, Ron Paul out (with a big bouquet from Rudy for handing him the biggest set-up since the Olympic volleyball tournament). Giuliani was mostly idling along until Paul, a libertarian congressman from Texas, said that America caused 9/11. Giuliani was up next. Think of Barry Bonds in a slow pitch softball tournament.
** SCHWARZENEGGER ADMINISTRATION LOTTERY WEBCAST AT 10:30 AM. There will be a live, interactive webcast this morning on the plan to lease the California Lottery. Participants will be David Crane, special advisor to Governor Schwarzenegger, Fred Klaas of the state Department of Finance, former Congressman Timothy Romer of Goldman Sachs, Bob Wells, executive director of the Association of California School Administrators, and Kevin Gordon, president of School Innovations and Advocacy. I’ll be on a conference call with Rudy Giuliani at the time.
** THAT WORKED WELL. NOT SO MUCH. Michael Moore, the publicity-seeking, muckracking documentary filmmaker, thought he had a good idea. With a new film to promote — Sicko, on health care — and having received the PR boon of provoking the Bush Administration into investigating him for travel with a group of anti-war Iraq War vets to Cuba for medical aid, he decided to grab some of the media now surrounding former Senator Fred Thompson’s prospective presidential candidacy. On the pretext that Thompson had written something in the National Review criticizing him for his admiration of Cuba, Moore issued a very public challenge to Thompson for a debate, noting in a very long and somewhat rambling letter that Thompson and his publicized store of Cuban cigars violated the 1961 trade embargo.
Moore proposed an American Idol-style format, in which viewers vote on the winner. Not so good an idea. Thompson responded by witheringly blowing him off yesterday as a crank, with the 38-second video you see above.
** EARLY FLORIDA DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY KAPUT. While it may well be a big contest for Republican presidential candidates, Florida’s move to hold its primary on January 29th won’t be for Democrats. Party rules severely hamstring both the state and its delegation to the Democratic National Convention in Denver, stripping at least half of its delegates, and the candidates themselves, as the national party is quite insistent that only Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina hold contests before February 5th. Any Democrat who campaigns in an early Florida primary won’t receive a single delegate from the state. So Florida Democrats are scrambing for alternatives, including a later caucus.
Al Qaeda forces, such as those seen on maneuvers in this Jihadist
video, captured three American soldiers south of Baghdad on
Saturday after killing the other five members of their patrol.
** PRE-GAME CHATTER UNDERWAY. The pre-Republican presidential debate chatter is underway on Fox News. A movie quiz I could ace was preceded by a clever encounter between Stephen Colbert and Bill O’Reilly, in which Colbert says he doesn’t “imitate” O’Reilly, he “emulates” him, by “shining the light of my justice upon the world.” Oh, the candidates? Well, we’ll have to get to them in less than an hour, I suppose.
** SCHWARZENEGGER ADMINISTRATION REVISES DEATH PENALTY PROCEDURES. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s administration has submitted the revised death penalty procedures required by a federal judge. Corrections Secretary Jim Tilton and Schwarzenegger communications director Adam Mendelsohn made the announcement in a press conference/conference call earlier this afternoon.
The new plan includes: Recommended improvements to the death penalty facility at San Quentin Prison. The state has developed a plan and taken steps to ensure there is adequate equipment, lighting and space for the execution team to work. Current law requires that all executions be conducted within the walls of San Quentin State Prison. A suitable site was identified, and plans were developed to remodel an existing facility in a way that addresses the judge’s concerns. The project has been submitted to the Legislature for funding approval.
Proposed revisions to the lethal injection protocol. The revisions to San Quentin’s Operating Procedure 770 (OP 770) modify the procedures to be used to administer lethal injection. As part of its review, the state consulted with experts and visited other jurisdictions. The revised protocol will ensure that San Quentin’s procedure, both as written and as actually implemented, does not create an undue and unnecessary risk that an inmate will suffer pain so extreme that it offends the Eighth Amendment’s prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment.
** REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE TONIGHT. The second Republican presidential debate — in South Carolina, following on the heels of the Reagan Library debate on May 3rd — is tonight from 6 to 7:30 PM Pacific time on Fox News. All the campaigns prepped their rapid response operations by flooding my e-mail box with statements of sadness over the passing of fundamentalist politico Jerry Falwell.
** SCHWARZENEGGER ON THE TRAIL. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger did a town hall meeting in the San Francisco Bay Area this morning. With a crowd of about 200 and a dozen TV cameras. Schwarzenegger, who brought along half of his Cabinet to help him lay out his very expansive agenda for the year, was relaxed and lively in a free-wheeling setting. It was a very friendly crowd and his controversial budget proposal didn’t figure very prominently. That’s because it was a middle class crowd, of high-propensity voters. There’s nothing much in the current version of his budget proposal to offend them. I’ll have a full, multimedia report this week on what Schwarzenegger is up to.
** THE CALIFORNIA BUDGET DANCE CONTINUES. The day after the presentation of the “May revise” of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s proposal, the plan was attacked from the left and from the right. From the left, as you know, for cutting too much; namely, in some areas of health and welfare and public transit. From the right, for cutting too little. And, of course, spending too much. The Legislative Analyst’s Office, which was wrong in its downbeat forecast of the state’s revenues, says Schwarzenegger’s budget is overly optimistic in estimating its reserve. This will go on for some weeks. Then someone will figure out the answer.
** SEARCH CONTINUES FOR AMERICAN TROOPS CAPTURED BY AL QAEDA. The search has continued into the fourth day for the three US soldiers captured by Al Qaeda forces on Saturday. Over 4,000 American troops are directly involved in the search south of Baghdad, and the effort remains the top tactical priority for American forces in Iraq.
The captured soldiers, along with their dead comrades, were members of the 10th Mountain Division, a crack light infantry unit in the regular Army. In other words, they were not reservists or National Guardsmen. They were traveling in Humvees, which were destroyed in the ambush.
** NEWT’S NEW BOOK. Here is an excerpt from the Publisher’s Weekly preview of Newt Gingrich’s new book, a novel of alternate history entitled “Pearl Harbor: December 8th, Book One of the Pacific War Series”: Having completed their Civil War trilogy, ex–House Speaker Gingrich and historian Forstchen return their attention to World War II (they previously collaborated on 1945). The attack on Pearl Harbor occupies the final quarter of the book, and the extensive leadup begins in 1930s Japan and provides readers not well versed in Japanese history a decent thumbnail sketch of Japanese culture and the events that preceded the attack. The authors’ research shines in accurate accounts of diplomatic maneuvering as well as the nuts-and-bolts of military action, beginning with the Japanese invasion of China. Fans of the authors will expect their trademark “alternative” ending. In this case, the Japanese attack far more vigorously and devastate a larger chunk of the U.S. Pacific fleet than they actually did. How this affects the war’s outcome will be revealed in the sequel. Gingrich and Forstchen, though adept at bigger-picture issues, falter when it comes to establishing and developing characters; FDR, Churchill and Hirohito come across as caricatures who move the plot along by mouthing historically appropriate lines, while the soldier-heroes exist to explain their nation’s point-of-view to the reader. The recent success of Letters from Iwo Jima may attract readers who would otherwise shy away from military history fiction.
** OBAMA LEADS IN SOUTH CAROLINA POLL. Senator Barack Obama leads the Democratic presidential field in a new Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion poll of the South Carolina presidential primary. Obama leads Hillary Clinton, 31% to 27%, with John Edwards third at 16%.
Edwards, a native of South Carolina who became a multil-millionaire trial lawyer and represented next door North Carolina for one term in the U.S. Senate before becoming the 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee, won the South Carolina when he ran for the Democratic presidential nomination the last time around.
** NOTE: I’m traveling and filming today, so posting will not be as regular as you’re accustomed to.
California’s annual budget games are well underway now with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s presentation of the May revision of his proposed budget. The administration’s revenue forecast was on target, but spending on education and prisons had to increase, so some further cuts are proposed, in the health and welfare area and transit.
Democratic legislative leaders decried it as too harsh and tough; Republican legislative leaders said it may not be tough enough. The state’s largest public employee union criticized it for not spending more, and for continuing to “waste” money on contracting out. The state’s leading anti-tax lobby praised it. All predictable. The state’s finance director, Mike Genest, who has been through more than a few of these, noted that the actions called for are less than in other budgets that proved to be controversial and that many of those survived, despite never passing a committee vote and being subject to much heartfelt rhetoric and protests. There will be a tremendous amount of maneuvering between now and the end of June. The final decisions, as almost always, will probably come down to a budget conference committee and/or the Big Five of the governor and the four legislative leaders of the two respective houses and parties.
In a conference call, Schwarzenegger sounded relatively happy about his budget. “I’m very happy that the economy is sound and strong. We produced 18,500 jobs in March. We have the lowest unemployment in California in three decades. The economy is still strong enough to withstand the slump in the housing market and so we met our revenue projections from January.”
“Some will say it makes too many cuts,” Schwarzenegger said. “Others will say it does not cut enough. It is my proposal. Now we will work with the Democrats and Republicans to produce the budget.”
Schwarzenegger noted that his budget proposal increases spending in several areas while, as he put it, not making major cuts in programs, and paying down the economic recovery bonds adopted to finance much of the huge budget deficit that resulted early in this decade when the Legislature and then governor took on spending and tax cut commitments that state revenues would not sustain.
It is this early repayment on bonds initially authorized in Gray Davis’s administration to cover the state’s horrendous budget deficit — and made constitutional by a Schwarzenegger-sponsored ballot measure in 2004 — that now seems to rile Democratic legislative leaders, who would prefer that the money be spent to maintain programs Schwarzenegger has proposed to cut.
“The administration wants to pay off Wall Street early even if it means kids on Main Street go without,” said Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez. Schwarzenegger proposes removing families from welfare if the parents are not meeting work requirements, and deny cost of living adjustments to welfare recipients, aged, blind, and disabled people.
The trade-off is that if the bonds floated by the state the last time it committed to more spending than its revenue could support are paid off, the state can then more readily go to the capital markets to invest in needed infrastructure projects that benefit all Californians for decades to come.
Of course, it is not surprising that Democrats take the stance that the poorest and least powerful among us shouldn’t take it in the shins, which is perhaps why Schwarzenegger, knowing that Republicans, some of whose votes are needed given the two-thirds vote requirement on tax measures, won’t go along with general tax increases, is raising the prospect of selling or leasing state assets to raise large amounts of cash. While the only one in this budget is the so-called Ed Fund, which guarantees student loans and investment bankers say is worth $1 billion, the big enchilada is the state Lottery, a proposal for next year, worth many more times that.
If the Lottery is leased, many problems are solved, a point which legislators are likely to get. Including the repayment of the deficit bonds, which is looking rather unlikely this year.
For their part, Republicans and conservative editorialists were rather critical of Schwarzenegger for not cutting enough. State finance director Mike Genest noted: “Once you discount for the prepayment of debt, this is a no-growth budget.”
One proposed cut, incidentally, seems a boon for developers while not saving an enormous amount of money. That’s the $40 million which would go to implement the Williamson Act, tax breaks which have protected rural and ag lands from development for nearly half-a-century.
So the dance begins. There will be some tremendous wrangling, but as budgets go, this is not one of the more difficult ones in recent memory. Of course, in the term limits era, there isn’t a lot of memory around, so some may become more exercised than they would otherwise.
Former President Bill Clinton talks about why he thinks his wife
is great and should be president. The Clinton campaign, challenged
by Barack Obama, has just rolled out this video.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET. I’m in the process of absorbing a lot of information about Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s May revision of his proposed state budget. Here is the quick story by the AP’s budget writer. It actually raises spending, especially on education, beyond what he proposed in January, but includes cuts in the health and welfare area. Democratic legislative leaders decried it as too harsh and tough; Republican legislative leaders said it may not be tough enough. The state’s largest public employee union criticized it for not spending more, and for continuing to “waste” money on contracting out. The state’s leading anti-tax lobby praised it. All predictable. The state’s finance director, Mike Genest, who has been through more than a few of these, noted that the actions called for are less than in other budgets that proved to be controversial and that many of those survived, despite never passing a committee vote and being subject to much heartfelt rhetoric and protests. There will be a tremendous amount of maneuvering between now and the end of June. The final decisions, as almost always, will probably come down to a budget conference committee and/or the Big Five of the governor and the four legislative leaders of the two respective houses and parties.
Al Qaeda says that if we want our troops back, the forces currently surging in that area must withdraw. As part of the “surge” strategy, US troops are operating in smaller units than before and spending more sustained time away from bases. In such circumstances, casualties can increase and the risk of capture goes up dramatically, since a small unit can be much more readily overwhelmed than a large unit. With US forces more dispersed, the operational reserve in any given area available to respond rapidly to an attack on an American unit is relatively small, about the size of a platoon, lacking the manpower and mobility needed to conduct a rapid search.
In advance of the gathering, New York’s host mayor, moderate Republican Michael Bloomberg — who may be contemplating an independent presidential candidacy next year — went to Texas last week to lay out his views on a national energy strategy, which included a major new emphasis on renewable energy and energy efficiency, as well as a revival of nuclear power. The event is co-sponsored by former President Bill Clinton’s foundation. Clinton will address the gathering on Wednesday. The participating cities include Berlin, Beijing, London, Los Angeles, Bangkok, Cairo, Delhi, Dhaka, Istanbul, Jakarta, Johannesburg, Karachi, Lagos, Melbourne, Mumbai, Paris, Rio de Janeiro, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Sydney and Tokyo.
** THE BIG DOG AS BIG GUN. Confronted with a powerful primary challenge from Senator Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton’s campaign, which has already been using former President Bill Clinton as a major campaign asset, fundraiser, and strategist, is further emphasizing his role. The campaign is this morning disseminating this 5-minute video you see above, in which the former president tells about his wife and why he thinks she should be president.
** U.S. TO NEGOTIATE WITH IRAN OVER IRAQ. At last following another controversial proposal from the Iraq Study Group, the Bush Administration will engage in ministerial-level discussions with Iranian diplomats in Baghdad in two weeks.
** SCHWARZENEGGER TO UNVEIL REVISED CALIFORNIA BUDGET. Every year, the governor of California proposes a state budget in January and then, based on the latest revenue and spending information following the tax period, proposes a “May revise.” Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will unveil his this afternoon. Here’s the big picture. Despite a negative assessment from the state’s Legislative Analyst Office, and revenues which seemed to be running lower than forecast by the Schwarzenegger Administration, the state’s revenues have actually ended up higher than expected. So there need be no draconian adjustments to the proposed budget. While there will be the usual fierce infighting over particulars, this will not be a difficult budget year for California.
** JERRY BROWN AND COALITION OF STATES AND ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS SUE BUSH ADMINISTRATION. California Attorney General Jerry Brown will this morning announce that California is joining with several other states and environmental groups to sue the Bush Administration for ordering only a small increase in fuel efficiency standards for SUVs, trucks, and minivans. Brown is appearing before a federal court hearing in San Francisco.
“It is unconscionable to have a one-mile-per-gallon mileage boost,” says the former California governor. “We are asking the court to reject this dangerously weak mileage plan.”
The increase at hand is from 22.2 mpg to 23.5 mpg by 2010. Brown notes that 8% of US greenhouse gas emissions come from the vehicles at issue. Suing along with Brown are Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, the District of Columbia, New York City, the Center for Biological Diversity, Natural Resources Defense Council, Environmental Defense and the Sierra Club. Arguing before the court for California and the other states will be California Deputy Attorney General Susan Fiering.
John McCain, seen here in a montage from his formal announcement
tour late last month, is coming back from a political near death
experience with stronger numbers in California and Nevada and
a strong performance at the California debate.
With a lead in Nevada, a statistical tie in California, and a spirited performance at the first Republican presidential debate at the Reagan Library outside Los Angeles earlier this month, Arizona Senator John McCain looks like the first comeback candidate of the campaign.
It’s probably fitting that McCain, the Western candidate who mounted a vibrant challenge to George W. Bush in the 2000 Republican primaries, is reviving his candidacy in the West. What has been a surprise is that he has needed to.
McCain entered the campaign as the Republican favorite, notwithstanding former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s good showing in polls. But it’s been downhill since, with McCain appearing lackluster and Giuliani off to a good start. McCain finished third in fundraising for the first quarter, behind former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Giuliani, and reached a nadir of sorts when he toured a Baghdad marketplace and declared it much safer as a result of the surge. He was accompanied by a company of infantry, with helicopter gunships flying overhead.
Since then, McCain’s struck a greater note of realism about Iraq, while remaining a strong supporter of the effort there. The surge is something he advocated years ago. Actually, he had wanted the 2003 invasion to utilize a much larger force, which might have secured the country’s infrastructure and led to a more stable Iraq. His policy differed in other major respects from Bush’s course.
While most have thought that McCain is the candidate in trouble, it is actually Giuliani. He has not developed beyond his strong opening burst in February, and has slid sharply in most national polls since then. Little more than a month ago, he had a clear lead in Nevada. In this latest poll, he is fourth, albeit within a half-dozen points of the leader, McCain. His fundraising in the first quarter was strong, but no stronger than that of the third place Democrat, John Edwards. McCain, who seemed hyper in the begininng, delivered an effective performance at the Reagan Library, but Giuliani tended to fade into the woodwork, impressing only with a remarkably diffident answer on the fate of Roe v. Wade. This led him to refocus his campaign on his historical pro-choice stance, a risky move in the Republican primaries, especially the early ones.
With McCain running a consistent first or at least a close second in the other three of the first four states — Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina — Giuliani has been hoping for commanding showings in Nevada, and then California and other big states that follow on the heels of the first four.
But these new polls cast that strategy, which many very seriously question, in doubt.
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain lead in a Mason-Dixon Poll for the Las Vegas Review Journal of what are believed to be likely participants in the second-in-the-nation Nevada presidential caucuses next January.
Clinton has a much bigger lead in Nevada than she does nationally, where Barack Obama has seriously challenged at times. But in this Nevada poll, he’s in a dead heat with John Edwards for a distant second. The numbers are Clinton 37%, Edwards 13%, Obama 12%, possible candidate Al Gore 9%, and Bill Richardson 6%.
On the Republican side, McCain has a much smaller edge than Clinton does on the Democratic side. McCain leads with 19% to Mitt Romney’s 15%, Fred Thompson’s 13%, Rudy Giuliani’s 12%, and Newt Gingrich’s 7%. But it’s a significant development for McCain, in that Giuliani had been leading in what is now the second-in-the-nation contest.
Last week’s American Research Group poll of California Republican primary voters has McCain with a statistical tie with Giuliani. Giuliani has 27% to McCain’s 24%. Everyone else trails by at least double digits.
If McCain has a strong showing tomorrow night in South Carolina, where the Republican field will hold their second encounter following the May 3rd California debate, his standing as comeback candidate should be obvious to all.
With the controversy over Mitt Romney’s choice of Battlefield Earth as his favorite novel, it’s interesting to note that John F. Kennedy’s pick was From Russia With Love.
Which may be linked to the US success yesterday in bagging the biggest Taliban prize since the successful Afghan war in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, top Taliban military deputy Mullah Dadullah. After years of successfully Dadullah eluding them, American forces somehow learned of his whereabouts and dispatched him. The Taliban were essentially created by Pakistani intelligence to bring order to Afghanistan after the Soviets were ousted and the country fell into deep disarray.
** HAPPY MOTHERS DAY! I have many notebook items, some of which will appear at various points on this holiday today. Some new ones are below for those who checked in earlier.
** GAVIN NEWSOM’S RE-EMERGENCE. Thinking back to the California Democratic Convention weekend before last, and recalling a number of items I didn’t write at the time. Many things come up that supercede. But I have several I’ll get into that are telling beyond the short-term, hothouse atmosphere of a convention of activists and pols. One is the re-emergence of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom on the statewide political scene.
Accompanied by his longtime aide Peter Ragone, Newsom, who was pilloried for a time by the sensationalist media and hyperventilating bloggers for his illicit affair, made the rounds extensively in San Diego. He spoke twice, first at the Saturday night convention banquet honoring House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which virtually none of the press attended, and which deserves a longer item of its own for its multiple dynamics. Then on Sunday to the convention as a whole, or at least those who were still on hand. He was extremly well-received at the banquet, where Pelosi and other notables made it clear that he he retains a very high esteem in their eyes, and also was well-received by the convention. He looked a bit wounded at times, but is surviving just fine, in spite of all the sensational reportage and scurrilous rumor-mongering earlier this year. He has about a 70% job approval rating in San Francisco. To date, no serious opponent has emerged to challenge his re-election this year.
** ANGELIDES RETURNS. Former California Treasurer Phil Angelides, who lost the governor’s race last year to Arnold Schwarzenegger, 39% to 56%, was also in San Diego for the party convention. Acclaimed by the delegates for his give them what they want speech, the convention’s endorsed candidate of a year ago was an afterthought this year. He spoke to the convention on Saturday. I was doing a TV interview in the back of the hall while he spoke and didn’t pay close attention to his speech. But the response seemed fairly perfunctory. When I encountered Angelides in the halls, there weren’t many people around him.
** NOT TERMINATED. THE SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES TO APPEAR THIS FALL. This week, the Fox network will pick up a new TV series for the fall. It’s the story of what happens in the Terminator universe between Terminator 2 and Terminator 3, how Sarah Connor and her young son John, having been saved by Arnold Schwarzenegger’s heroic terminator after nearly being eliminated by his evil terminator in the original movie, begin to prepare for the inevitable rise of the machines. It stars British actress Lena Headey, the spirited Queen of Sparta in this year’s hit movie 300, as Sarah Connor (originally played in the movies by Linda Hamilton), and Thomas Dekker, probably best known as the cheerleader’s nerdy friend on the hit NBC series Heroes, as John Connor. Schwarzenegger himself doesn’t seem involved with the TV series. Although you can bet there will be references. And it should help sustain interest for a future Terminator film series. More about that another time.
** TOP TALIBAN LEADER KILLED IN AFGHANISTAN. With unrest spreading in Pakistan and more difficult news in Iraq, the death of top Taliban leader Mullah Dadullah comes at a good time for US forces. Dadullah, the senior military deputy to Mullah Omar, was killed yesterday in southern Afghanistan. Dadullah, who lost a leg fighting the Soviet army, was known as the “butcher of Kandahar” for his brutal tactics during the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in the 1990s.
That includes the most left-leaning of the candidates, Democrat John Edwards, who recently revealed that he worked for a hedge fund. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani, who may, or may not, be the frontrunner, won’t disclose his consulting clients or compensation at Giuliani Partners, the firm he founded after 9/11. But the Washington Post has some of it. And many clients of the Bracewell Giuliani law firm are known. And will be controversial.
** A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE’S FAVORITE NOVEL, REDUX, COURTESY OF THE CHURCH OF SCIENTOLOGY. You remember that Republican Mitt Romney named the L. Ron Hubbard scifi howler Battlefield Earth (made into a very bad movie starring his Scientology co-religionist John Travolta). After I wrote about that, this post, from John Goodwin, appeared in the NWN Forum: I’ve read Battlefield Earth and thought it was a pretty good story – along with about 8,000,000 others who bought the book. It was the first sf book to hit the NYT bestseller list (over half a year on the list). It was also voted #3 of the top 100 novels of the 20th century by the Random House Modern Library Readers Poll a few years back. Just thought you could use some facts about the book that Romney selected as his favorite novel.
He certainly has read the book. Actually, research shows that he is the head of Galaxy Press, the Scientology publishing house. Which published, yes, Battlefield Earth. I e-mailed him asking if he wanted to add anything, or respond to my response. But he didn’t get back to me. The reality is that the Church of Scientology and its members bought up copies of that book en masse. In order to push it on to the best-seller list. And no, it was not the first science fiction title to make the list. Actual top science fiction writers like Robert Heinlein and Isaac Asimo were there long before. Without having their own religious group around to buy up their books.
Since revealing his favorite novel, Romney has gone on to decry the advent of “seven-year term marriages” in France. Only thing is, that is not the reality in France. It is the reality, so to speak, in another science fiction novel, by Orson Scott Card, which plays out the story of the Book of Mormon in outer space.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger with a new business coalition
for health care in this NWN video.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger made moves on two major policy initiatives this week prior to next week’s unveiling of the “May revise” of his proposed state budget. He appeared with a new business coalition backing a comprehensive health care program for the state and also talked up his desire to privatize the California Lottery, both as seen in this NWN video.
In the video, Schwarzenegger also amusingly displays his general lack of interest in the issue of pardoning Paris Hilton for her drunk driving conviction, a risible notion which nonetheless had a lot of media currency earlier in the week. “I’ve never gotten a request but I have many more important things to think about,” said the former action superstar as legislative leaders laughed about the silliness of it all.
On Thursday, he had one of his patented events at which he comes together with leading figures, holds a fairly brief roundtable discussion, and then goes out with them to talk publicly about what great progress they are all making on a major, seemingly insoluble issue, which in this case is health care. Schwarzenegger, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines, Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, and a host of corporate leaders led by Safeway CEO Steve Burd — part of the new Coalition To Advance Health Care Reform — all talked, amidst the colorful backdrops of Capitol Park and the ornate Capitol building, about the big problem of health care in California and how they have all agreed that this is the year in which they are going to do something major about it.
What precisely that will be remains rather unclear, along with when that might happen. Most of the participants are for something like Schwarzenegger’s plan, which includes employer mandates to provide health care, consumer mandates to have health insurance, preventive care, and universal access to health coverage. Sources around the governor are talking June, but one top health executive says he thinks August is more realistic. A planned media campaign to promote the issue hasn’t ramped up yet, but media consultant David Doak tells me it will soon.
You can look at these things and say, well, it’s Arnold the showman again, and what exactly did that mean? But this is part of his technique which he’s used on other major issues. Coming together with unusual coalitions to get conceptual agreements on the need for action, then having everyone agree in public how important it is to do and how this is the time they are going to get it done. The technique, which is somewhat akin to herding cats, is more particularly like slowly moving a somewhat amorphous blob down the field until it begins to take shape. It’s also how you boil a frog.
That event was planned. The unveiling of the Lottery proposal was not, exactly. A report Thursday morning in one of the daily newspapers had Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s administration actively exploring the prospect of privatizing the California Lottery, which provides funding for the public schools, implying that the move might have something to do with the May revise of the budget. Although the newspaper apparently had access to private documents generated by investment bankers and administration officials, the actual numbers involved were rather unclear. In a conference call Thursday afternoon, administration officials and investment bankers answered some questions and spelled some things out.
The state would not sell the Lottery, it would lease it. The schools, the funding of which was the main selling point when voters adopted the Lottery in a 1984 initiative, would be guaranteed at least the same proceeds every year that they get now. In addition to the ongoing revenue for the schools, which was the main selling point when voters approved the Lottery in an initiative, the state would receive a starburst of cash by “securitizing” the Lottery and its proceeds and assigning its running to the private sector, where it would continue under state regulation.
Why privatize the Lottery? It’s an underperforming asset, Schwarzenegger believes. Proceeds have been trending downwards for years, and the California Lottery is the worst performing of the big state lotteries.
“States around the country,” says former Treasurer and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Kathleen Brown, now of Goldman Sachs, “are finding that running lotteries is not among the core competencies of government. That’s something that retail, technology, sales, and marketing enterprises are best at.”
How much money the state could make above and beyond what it does now, and over what time frame, remains to be seen and investment bankers and state officials would not be pinned down on the question. Legislative leaders seem open to the idea.
Although the Lottery idea has nothing to do with this year’s state budget, it could help a lot in the future. The state still has to pay off bonds authorized in 2003 by then Governor Gray Davis to make up for the horrendous budget deficit which occurred after the state expanded spending programs and tax cuts in a short-sighted reliance on a dot-com boom which did not continue. After winning the office in the recall election of fall 2003, Schwarzenegger led a successful election campaign to make those deficit bonds constitutional, without which the whole house of cards may well have come tumbling down. If those bonds are paid off, future bonds for infrastructure and other needs become much more do-able.
The negative reaction wasn’t too negative. A couple of quotes from inveterate Schwarzenegger critics, one of whom obtained an opinion from legislative lawyers, some waspishly expressed concern about the public once again thinking the Lottery is a big education funding source from the head of the teachers union, and the natural opposition of the public employee union representing Lottery workers.
And Schwarzenegger’s luck is holding so far after the first two major fires in what looks like a drought year in California after winter’s 20-year low Sierra snow pack. The Griffith Park fire in LA and the Catalina Island fire, which missed the charming town of Avalon, aren’t resulting in major loss. But the state’s resources could be stretched thin in a long fire season which is only now beginning, with much of the National Guard’s equipment left in Iraq when units return home. Schwarzenegger says he’s trying to get it back. But in wartime, that equipment belongs to the Army.
Two clever new “job interview” TV ads for New Mexico Governor
Bill Richardson’s Democratic presidential campaign.
** CLINTON URGES IRAN TO RELEASE ACADEMIC.Senate Hillary Clinton this afternoon demanded that Iran release Dr. Haleh Esfandiari, who holds dual Iranian and American citizenship and has lived and worked in the US for the past quarter century. Esfandiari, who the Democratic presidential candidate cited for scholarship on Middle Eastern and women’s studies, was visiting her ailing mother before being clapped into prison in Tehran on Tuesday night for undisclosed reasons.
** MINOR CALIFORNIA DUST-UP. Late yesterday, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez moved right-wing Orange County Assemblyman Todd Spitzer to a new office. A really small office, less than 400 square feet. What did he do? There was his pattern of labeling those who disagree with him as “pro-criminal,” which earned him a harsh rebuke from conservative Orange County Register columnist Steve Greenhut, his claim that LA didn’t get the nod from the US Olympics Committee for the Games of 2016 because of its problem with gangs (which is false), his claim that Democrats were sabotaging a prison deal with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in order to provoke a federal takeover of the system (let’s be charitable and say he was really very far out of the loop), his crashing of a press conference by Nunez and Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines, and so forth. Disagreement is fine, and there are certainly some Democrats who are at times weak on crime. But as readers have noted, I’m not a fan of errant nonsense from either political extreme. It’s not amusing, especially when it’s not just essentially idle tapping. If I were speaker, which is to say, in a very different role, I’d put him in a tent in the parking lot across the street.
** RICHARDSON L.A. TOWN HALL. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson held a town hall meeting for his Democratic presidential campaign today in Los Angeles hosted by popular longtime LA County Supervisor Gloria Molina. Richardson was actually born in California, in Pasadena.
** RICHARDSON TRIES TO JUMP TIERS. While Republican Mitt Romney is the only presidential candidate in either party spending big bucks on TV this early, to mixed results, two Democrats are on the air. John Edwards has been running ads in Iowa and Washington, DC, attempting to position himself as the leader of anti-Iraq War forces. Now New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, the former US ambassador to the UN and secretary of energy, is trying to make a move beyond the category of leading longshot with two ads in Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
The ads, which take the form of mock job interviews in which the former senior member of the House Intelligence Committee and international troubleshooter is asked about qualifications by a skeptical interviewer munching a sandwich, play up the fact that Richardson is easily among the most highly qualified candidates in either party. Something over $100,000 is being spent on the ads in Iowa, where the Westerner Richardson, the first major Latino presidential candidate has to show in order to break through four days later in Nevada.
Richardson will appear on The Tonight Show tonight with Jay Leno, recorded this afternoon in Burbank. Since he’s a pretty funny guy, it should prove interesting.
Meanwhile, Giuliani is presenting himself anew as staunchly pro-choice on abortion, speaking today at Baptist University in Houston. With past video of his pro-choice statements and revelations of donations to Planned Parenthood, it’s not something he could run away from now and retain credibility. But it flies directly in the face of what it generally takes to win the Republican presidential nomination, and makes his doing well in the first four states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina problematic. Meanwhile, as I’ll report in an upcoming column, another candidate written off by many not long ago is on the comeback trail.
The Sierra snow pack ended up 28% of normal, a 20-year low, meaning that California is in a near drought situation and danger in what is only the opening phase of California’s long fire season stretching from spring through fall is high. Meanwhile, as tornado-stricken Kansas learned to its chagrin, National Guard equipment heads to Iraq and stays there. The California National Guard, as a result, is very short on trucks, power generators, and radios, all of which come in quite handy in dealing with what way may well become a series of serious fires. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said yesterday that, while he’s confident that there is enough Guard personnel left in the state and that the Guard can handle things, he is working to get the Guard equipment returned from Iraq.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, seen here delivering an emotional tribute as the world learns of the death of Princess Diana in 1997, announced today that he will step away after a decade at 10 Downing Street on June 27th.
** OBAMA’S IRAQ MOVE: PRESSURING HIS SENATE COLLEAGUES. With John Edwards trying to steal a march on anti-war sentiment in the Democratic presidential primaries, as discussed below, and Hillary Clinton trying to blunt criticism of her past support for the failed Iraq policy, Barack Obama, who opposed the war from the beginning, is doing something new. In something of a violation of unspoken Senate protocol, drawing criticism from the Senate colleagues he’s targeting, he is campaigning in some of his colleagues’ states urging that their constituents get their senator to change their votes in the Senate and support a timetable for withdrawing US troops. One of those states, naturally enough, is Iowa, site of the first-in-the-nation contest next January, where Republican Charles Grassley continues to support President Bush’s latest policy. Obama says the magnitude of the Iraq issue more than outweights the niceties of Senate protocol.
As Russian soldiers goose-stepped through Moscow’s Red Square yesterday, once again marching behind flags bearing the iconic hammer & sickle of the old Communist regime, Putin delivered some of his most explosive rhetoric yet.
Speaking from behind a podium in front of Lenin’s mausoleum, Putin took a hard swipe at America, which he did not name, saying that world peace today is threatened by a power “based on the same disrespect for human life, and claims to global exclusiveness and diktat, just as it was in the Third Reich.”
** PRIVATIZING THE CALIFORNIA LOTTERY. A report this morning in one of the daily newspapers has Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s administration actively exploring the prospect of privatizing the California Lottery, which provides funding for the public schools. Although the newspaper apparently had access to private documents generated by investment bankers and administration officials, the actual numbers involved were rather unclear. In a conference call this afternoon, administration officials and investment bankers answered some questions and spelled some things out.
The state would not sell the Lottery, were it to move forward on this, it would lease it. The schools would be guaranteed at least the same proceeds every year that they get now. The Lottery would be run by a company or consortium of companies involved in gaming, technology, and marketing. In addition to the ongoing revenue for the schools, which was the main selling point when voters approved the Lottery in an initiative, the state would receive a starburst of cash by “securitizing” the Lottery and its proceeds and assigning its running to the private sector, where it would continue under state regulation.
Why privatize the Lottery? It’s an underperforming asset, Schwarzenegger believes. Proceeds have been trending downwards for years, and the California Lottery is the worst performing of the big state lotteries.
“States around the country,” says former Treasurer and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Kathleen Brown, now of Goldman Sachs, “are finding that running lotteries is not among the core competencies of government. That’s something that retail, technology, sales, and marketing enterprises are best at.”
Says Schwarzenegger economic advisor David Crane: “The Lottery isn’t like other state assets. It’s only purpose is to make money. If we do this, I expect a vibrant, vigorous bidding environment” for the Lottery lease.
How much money the state could make above and beyond what it does now, and over what time frame, remains to be seen and investment bankers and state officials would not be pinned down on the question today. Legislative leaders seem open to the idea. One top Democratic advisor noted that 41 states are considering doing this, although none has so far.
State finance spokesman H.D. Palmer clarified that the Lottery proposal is not related to this year’s budget, which is reportedly only about a billion dollars out of balance. But, although he did not say this, it could help a lot in the future. The state still has to pay off bonds authorized in 2003 by then Governor Gray Davis to make up for the horrendous budget deficit which occurred after the state expanded spending programs and tax cuts in a short-sighted reliance on a dot-com boom which did not continue. After winning the office in the recall election of fall 2003, Schwarzenegger led a successful election campaign to make those deficit bonds constitutional, without which the whole house of cards may well have come tumbling down.
** AN IRAQ ASIDE FROM SCHWARZENEGGER. Asked about the state of the California National Guard with what, in potentially, suddenly drought-stricken California looks like a dangerous fire season (it only seemed like half of LA was on fire), Governor Schwarzenegger said he has weekly meetings about the National Guard and that it seems to be doing fine. One problem, however, is that when units are deployed to Iraq, they end up leaving the bulk of their equipment there. Schwarzenegger said he’s trying to get that equipment back.
** ARNOLD ON PARDONING PARIS HILTON. “I’ve never gotten a request but I have many more important things to think about.”
** SCHWARZENEGGER MOVES THE BALL ON HEALTH CARE.Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had one of his patented events at which he comes together with leading figures, holds a fairly brief roundtable discussion, and then goes out with them to talk publicly about what great progress they are all making on a major, seemingly insoluble issue, which in this case is health care. Schwarzenegger, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, Assembly Republican Mike Villines, Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, and a host of corporate leaders led by Safeway CEO Steve Burd all talked, amidst the colorful backdrops of Capitol Park and the ornate Capitol building, about the big problem of health care in California and how they have all agreed that this is the year in which they are going to do something major about it.
What precisely that will be remains rather unclear, along with when that might happen. Sources around the governor are talking June, but one top health executive says he thinks August is more realistic. A planned media campaign to promote the issue hasn’t ramped up yet, but media consultant David Doak tells me it will soon.
You can look at these things and say, well, it’s Arnold the showman again, and what exactly did that mean? But this is part of his technique which he’s used on other major issues. Coming together with unusual coalitions to get conceptual agreements on the need for action, then having everyone agree in public how important it is to do and how this is the time they are going to get it done. Chivvy, push, cajole, flatter, slowly moving a somewhat amorphous blob down the field until it begins to take shape. It’s also how you boil a frog.
** EDWARDS TRIES TO TURN UP ANTI-WAR HEAT. Trying to bootstrap his way out of third place in the Democratic presidential race, John Edwards is pushing for a more overt and rapid move to withdraw US troops from Iraq. He’s running a TV ad in Iowa and in Washington, DC, and is pushing this newspaper ad in the nation’s capital.He’s pushed Congressional Democrats to send and resend already vetoed legislation to President George W. Bush, to put Republicans on the spot repeatedly and, not coincidentally, if that’s not done, to put leading rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the spot for supporting a “compromise with Bush” in which funding for the troops continues and the surge carries on.
But as he makes these moves, Edwards has to be careful not to get too far distant from his own recent statements on Iraq, nor to damage his own prospects for a general election. Obama has the advantage of having been against the war from the beginning, and Clinton isn’t simply playing along, having introduced a bill to deauthorize the war as of this fall.
Edwards is running first in Iowa, but is a distant third in Nevada, where many, including me, expected him to be much stronger, third in New Hampshire, third in South Carolina, which he won in 2004, and third in California. In national polls, Clinton is a clear first, Obama a clear second, and Edwards a clear third. Obama had closed significantly on Clinton in a couple of major polls, but fell back as her strong performance in the South Carolina debate sunk in for the multitudes who did not watch it.
** TONY BLAIR ANNOUNCES HIS DEPARTURE DATE.British Prime Minister Tony Blair, one of the world’s most durable leaders and America’s staunchest ally of recent years, announced this morning that he will step away from the leadership of the Labour Party and hence premiership on June 27th after 10 tumultuous and frequently productive years in office. He’ll retain his seat in Parliament until 2009. In the meantime, he has five foreign trips scheduled in the next six weeks. Blair is expected to play major roles as an emissary in the Middle East and Africa, as well as continuing his work on climate change. The prime minister participated with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and others last fall in the San Francisco signing ceremony of California’s landmark climate change act.
** OBAMA MEDIA BUY? Senator Barack Obama’s campaign has inquired about TV ad time in the Las Vegas and Reno media markets. Obama is running a distant second in Nevada, the second-in-the-nation contest next year, behind Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race. Frankly, he should be doing better there, but was probably hurt by skipping the first presidential forum in Carson City in February and not doing so well at the second presidential forum in Las Vegas at the end of March. Obama may also be looking into TV ad buys in the other early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
In a speech at televangelist Pat Robertson’s university, Romney criticized people avoiding marriage because they enjoy the single life, saying: “It seems that Europe leads Americans in this way of thinking. In France, for instance, I’m told that marriage is now frequently contracted in seven-year terms where either party may move on when their term is up. How shallow and how different from the Europe of the past.”
Actually, this is something (don’t worry, I didn’t know this) in a science fiction novel by Orson Scott Card, which sets the Book of Mormon in outer space.
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