** MCCAIN TO CALL FOR “LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY GENTLEMEN.” No, wait, that’s another movie. In a speech tomorrow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, Senator John McCain will call for a League of Democracies. McCain has been getting a tremendous amount of knocks after his rough start in this race, which has seen his Republican presidential frontrunner’s role usurped by Rudy Giuliani — who now has his own share of trouble — but I think he is due for a resurgence. No matter what happens with the “surge” in Iraq.
What would McCain’s LXG do? Act against the genocide in Darfur, fight AIDS around the world, work on the greenhouse effect, promote free trade, and intervene against dictatorships when Russia and China hold the UN Security Council back.
** AARP STARTS TV AD CAMPAIGN FOR COMPREHENSIVE CALIFORNIA HEALTH CARE PLAN. The American Association of Retired People today began a $3 million TV advertising campaign on behalf of a comprehensive California health care program not unlike that talked about by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Expect more such advertising campaigns to emerge in the next few weeks.
** VILLARAIGOSA. WHY SO LOW PROFILE? For someone who’s become so unrelentingly prominent, LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was remarkably low key at the convention this past weekend. He made no public appearances other than the Saurday night banquet honoring House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which only a couple of journalists bothered to attend.
** ANTONIO AND GAVIN. I WONDER WHAT THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom are said to have met privately during the California Democratic Party convention. The two were supposed to be hot rivals for the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nomination, until Newsom stumbled into a sex scandal earlier this year. From which he seems to be emerging relatively unscathed, at least insofar as his re-election this year as mayor is concerned.
** A NEW LEADER? OBAMA OVERTAKES CLINTON IN A POLL. Longtime NWN readers know that I am not a fan of the Rasmussen poll. It’s a robopoll, and I like those about as much as Internet polls. And while the Rasmussen ending numbers are usually on the money, my experience in California is that the numbers can be way off with regard to other, highly accurate polls while the campaign is still underway. That said, a trend is a trend, particularly when the methodology remains the same. And the trend in Rasmussen, as in last week’s Wall Street Journal poll, in which Hillary Clinton’s lead dropped to five points, is all towards Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential race.
In the Rasmussen national poll released today, for the first time someone other than Hillary Clinton has an edge. It’s Obama, with a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Clinton, 32% to 30%. (John Edwards is third with 17%.) Last week, they were dead even at 30% to 30%. The week before, Clinton had a two-point edge, the week before that it was five, and the week preceding seven. In the poll before that, Obama was 12 points behind.
In this poll, Clinton still has a two-point edge among Democrats. But among independents judged likely to vote in the Democratic primaries, Obama has a clear edge.
If this is accurate, the stubborn Republican position here in California against allowing independents to vote in their primary may help swing the biggest primary election against Hillary, who they say they want to run against.
** EDITING. Incidentally, I have a lot of video to go through and edit. And some rest and other life things wouldn’t be a bad idea before the Republican presidential debate at the Reagan Library. All the video footage was shot handheld with a pocket video camera, some of it on the move. I have a small tripod, but it still gets in the way and is a bit too conspicuous. There’s not going to be a lot of slick, action movie-style special effects. Although I do shake the camera some for that handheld, cinema verite look …
** SPECIAL COMMISSION REPORT EXCORIATES ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER FOR LAST SUMMER’S WAR. A special commission of the Israeli government, investigating last summer’s war with Hezbollah, has issued a blistering set of criticisms of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the nation’s defense minister, and the military’s former chief of staff. The war, which ended for Israel in a disappointing stalemate, was botched from start to finish, from its conception to its execution, according to the Winograd Committee. Prior to this Olmert’s job approval rating was already down to single digits.
** BAY AREA FREEWAY COLLAPSE. By now, many of you know, perhaps all too well, of the collapse early Sunday morning of a portion of the freeway maze leading off the Bay Bridge from San Francisco to Oakland. A speeding gasoline truck, out of control, crashed and the ensuing fire was so hot that it melted the metal undergirdings. This was much like the phenomenon which brought down the World Trade Center. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency, but it will probably take months to repair the damage. Here is a list of alternate routes provided by Schwarzenegger’s longtime press aide Darrell Ng, now spokesman for the state’s Business, Transportation & Housing Agency. Today is a free public transit day in the Bay Area.
From San Francisco to Hayward
· Eastbound I-80 to South bound I-880
From San Francisco to Walnut Creek
· E/B I-80 and exit West Grand
· Left on NorthGate Street
· Enter on ramp to Eastbound I-580 towards SR-24
· Take E/B SR-24 to Interstate 680
From San Francisco to Sacramento
· Eastbound I-80 to Sacramento (no detour)
From San Francisco to East Bay
· S/B US-101 to E/B SR-92
· SR-92 to Interstate I-880 North or South bound
From San Francisco to East Bay (2nd alternate)
· S/B US-101 to E/B SR-84
· SR-84 E/B to Interstate I-880 North or South bound
From San Francisco to East Bay (3rd alternate)
· N/B US-101 to Richmond/San Rafael Bridge Eastbound (I-580)
· Westbound Richmond/San Rafael Bridge (I-580) to Interstate 80 West
From Richmond to San Jose
· W/B 80 to E/B I-580
· From E/B I-580 to W/B 980
· W/B 980 to S/B I-880
From Richmond to San Francisco
· W/B I-80 to San Francisco Bay Bridge (no detours)
San Francisco to East Bay
· E/B I-80 and exit Albany/Buchanon ramp.
· Turn left under the freeway
· Left onto W/B 80
· Take W/B 80 to E/B I-580
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are around $66 per barrel.
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| Comments (72) |
Nice public service for a terrible accident.
Public service, that’s what NWN is all about.
What a disaster off the Bay Bridge. I’m listening to KCBS and it sounds awful. I’m glad I don’t have to go that way.
Amen.
What a mess! Used to live up there and I can’t imagine what traffic will be like. Everyone better take BART!
Can I still drive up 101, from So Cal to Santa Rosa using the 101?
Unless you are planning to take 80 across the Bay Bridge to Oakland for an excursion in the East Bay or a trip to the capital.
101 bears to the left as you get into San Francisco and goes across the Golden Gate Bridge.
80 bears to the right and goes across the Bay Bridge.
Thank You:)
Political analysis and trip planning.
Oh my gawd, is that poll right?
On:SPECIAL COMMISSION REPORT
It was expected…full report is due this summer….it is sad and serious..very bad timing for Israel to have such lousy political leadership…the Chief of Staff was forced to resign sometime ago…PM Olmert and peretz(/defense minister) if they had some decency should have too…just hope this realist/pragmatic new billionaire Russian on the scene can keep Netanyahu and Lieberman from total power grab when Olmert is forced out…Beilin needs to give it his all, not give up now…he is the only one who has the vision to see Israel into a new era….
In SF, I gotta say the commute wasn’t too bad on the roads.I had to go out to the East Bay (Contra Costa)and I took I-80 to CA-4. No traffic at all.
But it is really an interesting site to see girders melted like plastic toy soldiers under a flame….
The guys jumping on the Clinton bandwagon gotta be asking themselves.
How do you commute from Sacramento to Sacramento?
Sorry Babs, I am a little lost…who is Beilin again? He is the Labor Party leader?
what about the + or – 4% error?
That’s what “statistically insignificant” means.
The trend is not.
I read something interesting the other day. In the spring of 1991, the year before the 1992 election, Bill Clinton was barely a blip on the national polling screen. So while poll results are fun to watchand to discuss, what’s happening in April, 2007, is like the second inning score in a baseball game. It may or may not give any insight ito the 2008 game winner.
True of past elections, as well.
But there are major differences.
For example, when Gary Hart made his national breakthrough by finishing a surprise second in Iowa, that first-in-the-nation contest took place on … February 20th!
This thing will be over by then.
Has the veneer of the inevitable finally cracked? Start watching the “undecided” numbers among Dems and Independents – it might start growing.
For those on the Obama email list, post their spin of this poll when you can.
Other than California, how many early primary states allow non-dems to vote for a democratic presidential candidate?
yes, Yossi Beilin is from Labour Party, he now is a leader of left of center party Meretz…he has been advocating for a Palestinian state for decades…I went with him and some others to meet with the Mayor of Bethlehem in 1982 to discuss the occupation of the “territories” (West Bank and Gaza) He was also the author of the Oslo Accords with current PLA leader Abbas…brilliant mind and was screwed politically by Peres, (who I find personally a very sel serving, highly duplicitous person)… as he did some other glowing young, gifted dedicated,talents around him…More than anyone else Peres put Amiram Nir in a vulnerable and eventually fatal situation… But doesn’t matter, he will have a big funeral full of world leaders crowing what a great guy he was…I will remember other things about him…
BTW…if you read the Winograd report or even just the articles detailing it …the criticisms sound all too familiar…Olmert who is the most average of politicians was always too much influenced by the Bush admin, in particular, he had too many visits and telephone calls with Eliot Abrams…
I also think Abrams set up Pelosi to appear that she mis-represented Israel in Damascus…Olmert was used ..and I am told Olmert apologized to Pelosi after the press bruhaha…although that appears to have gone pretty much unreported…
Was this my question?
My only answer would be to take a lot of left turns!!!
Ann :
How do you commute from Sacramento to Sacramento?
Apr 30, 2007 01:01 PM
Brasky”For those on the Obama email list, post their spin of this poll when you can.”
I’m on it …I get emails from him, and Durbin!…but I can’t post anything there because I have a”Barbara rule” …I only post here at NWN!!!…
Well, the poll trend does not surprise me…those crowds he draws has to mean something!…I just worry about women…still meet too many women over 45 that are absolutely giddy about Hillary…I hope they don’t have the numbers and therefore the ability to ruin it for everyone …With Obama, we finally have a candidate, I think the first, for the 21st century …ready to take us there with him and lead and meet all its challenges…I have been waiting since Jan 1 2000 for someone in politics like Obama…seems like forever…I am glad he is here, and I am happy he is running, and now I am praying he wins.
Babs:
I think the poll trend is important for all the other dem candidates. If it is no longer inevitable that Hillary is the nominee, all the other candidates get the benefit of being considered again. This should help Obama, Richardson and Edwards (I hope). Richardson’s comments about “rock stars and legacies” at convention comes to mind.
We must know very different women – many I know haven’t decided which candidate they like, other than they don’t like Hilary.
Brasky:We must know very different women – many I know haven’t decided which candidate they like, other than they don’t like Hilary
Oh Good!…you being a man, probably know more women than me!
I actually don’t know any women supporting Clinton except one at work and she is in her sixties…(and Carole here at NWN!) but I thought the polls were saying her “strength” was from women…I figured those would be mostly but not all …from that group that I call the “firsts” …and they are her age give or take 10 years…
In any event, I just hope Obama can do this…he is the ultimate “kickstarter” and does this country ever need a kickstarter as president!…there are some really bad signs out there…
Edwards apparently stole the show at the California convention…apparently a lot of CA Dems are seriously reconsidering the “Hillary” or “Obama” option. Also, Richardson was equally impressive — his speech was on target on things like immigration.
Babs — most of the women I know are politically “DTS”, even though most are registered “Dem.” I think this is really a different population than most polls are reaching at a national level. I can see a lot of Dems and Dem women voting for Hilary, but not a lot of DTS voters of either sex.
That’s right CADTS, how you end up where you started! lol
I’m sure Antonio is getting a lot of pressure to endorse a presidential candidate. He probably couldn’t wait for convention to be over.
I wonder how many even in their districts care what those assemblymen/women do for President.
re: “I’m sure Antonio is getting a lot of pressure to endorse a presidential candidate.”
I don’t know, it seems more likely that he’s waiting for a good time to make an announcement.
I know, he’s endorsing Angerlides again! Hey, was he at the convention?
CB – we aren’t sure how many in the districts even know who the Assembly member is, let alone care about their presidential endorsements. I think most of the members choose on the basis of what cool receptions and other events to which they might get invited, and/or they want to continue as a member of their favorite committees and work out of their current office suites.
Interesting questions about Antonio V. I think he simply doesn’t love the party events as much as, say Gavin N. Also, I believe he is much more moderate than most party activists, the principal attendees, and isn’t going to get the accolades that perhaps others would get, and to whom he would be compared.
There is a report out that thousands of demonstrators will meet in Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square on May 3 calling for the resignation of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz as a result of the Winograd Committee report on summer/2006 Israeli-Hezbollah conflict….
Yeah, I don’t know how a premier retains office with such a low approval rating, especially in the wake of such a devastating report on the “preparation” for war.
Villaraigosa will run for Governor, Newsom will for Boxer’s Senate seat against Steve Westly?
What about Jerry Brown, seems like that dude can kick anybody’s ass out there who isn’t Schwarzenegger till he’s about 80 or something.
The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen. I love it.
Olmert polls at 2- 3 percent! it’s amazing…I will tell you how he has so far …Israelis see their options: Netanyahu, Peres or Barak, possibly Livne …and think Yuk! ..it’s a terrible time…I spoke with a good girl friend earlier, her first war as a soldier was the Yom Kippur 1973…anyway…she reminded me that thhis has happened before …a report followed the YK war finding many miscalulations but did not hold the government of Golda meir personally responsible…(her gov included Alon, Rabin, Peres, Dyan) What did Golda do when the report was issued?…She resigned! This political midget, Olmert announced he is not going to resign…it will be interesting to see if the public forces the issue…
meanwhile on also May 3, US meets up with Iranians over Iraq in Egypt…
As you know, when you are at 2 or 3 percent you are within the margin of error. Olmert could have zero percent job approval. That means I am probably a more credible Prime Minister of Israel.
Which is to say … not so much.
well it is going on 5 am Tues morning in Israel…I can’t call any friends for yet 2-3 hours…HaAretz has at least one article suggesting that Peres (Kadima) and in Olmert’s party & cabinet, who was prepping to be President as his last hurrah would be back as PM…if that is true…I hope he brings in Yossi as FM …he sure as heck owes him… or if Livni won’t go somewhere else then as a chief negotiator for peace plan – 2 state solution…maybe some good can come out of this…I am going riding …toodles…
One good thing already has …Winograd Report will ensure no large scale incursion into Gaza…
Okay, the question was: Which of the four early states before California allow independents to vote in the Democratic presidential contest?
The answer is:
Nevada.
New Hampshire.
South Carolina.
I believe that Mr. Obama has eliminated Ms. Clinton’s lead, financially, popularly, and coolly. She has a tremendous conundrum facing her. What to do? Without making it worse.
Schwarzeneger is still moving ahead on his health care plan then?
Yes.
So, what happens on “24″ this evening?
I’m willing to wait.
Fox quickly cancelled the new lead-in , Drive, which premiered just a couple weeks ago after the great guilty pleasure Prison Break finished its second season.
It was cancelled? Already? Amazing…