William Shatner (not playing Kirk) and James Spader discuss the presidential
race on Boston Legal.
The presidential candidates who will appear, minus one, this weekend at the California Democratic Party convention in San Diego, all debated last night in South Carolina in an interesting, though hardly dramatic event that will change little in the race. Meanwhile, Democrats are preparing for what might, or might not, be their most consequential state convention in over 20 years.
Not since the 1984 presidential race, when the state Democratic convention in Sacramento was the site of the first “cattle call” of the entire Democratic presidential field, have so many high profile candidates put in appearances. The 2003 convention featured many candidates as well, but the field was generally more obscure than this one.
Yet the California convention takes place this time in an accelerated environment. While California has moved its primary to February 5th, now following only Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, there have already been several major encounters amongst the presidential contenders, including a February issues forum in Carson City, Nevada, a March issues forum in Las Vegas, and last night’s debate in South Carolina.
Nevertheless, this will be an intriguing weekend, as the campaigns begin to gear up their California political operations. The fundraising operations here are already in full swing, with New York Senator Hillary Clinton having raised over $5 million here and Illinois Senator Barack Obama checking in with over $4 million.
In San Diego, Clinton and Obama, the two frontrunners, will be accompanied by some top California backers. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez will be on hand with Clinton and former state Controller-turned-Silicon Valley venture capitalist Steve Westly will be with Obama.
All the other candidates, including the other top tier contender, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, will be on hand, from credible dark horse candidates New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd to bomb-throwing longshots Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich and former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel. Only Delaware Senator Joe Biden will skip the affair. He participated in last night’s debate, and was on hand for the first forum of the season, in Carson City in February, but also skipped the Las Vegas forum last month.
As mentioned, last night’s debate was interesting but hardly earth-shattering. Considering it after viewing it and writing my initial quick takes, and after taking in a ton of after-action analysis and commentary, I’m inclined to the view that there’s not much more to say about it because it did little to change the dynamic of the race.
Hillary Clinton, a vastly experienced figure benefited by having as her spouse perhaps the master politician of his generation around the world, was very much on the money. Barack Obama, an extremely talented orator who may be in tune with an emerging national mood, isn’t quite ready for the more focused and brief format of a multi-candidate debate. None of the others, including Edwards, a skilled speaker and accomplished trial lawyer who hovers a notch or two below the frontrunners, made enough of a move to alter the dynamic, though most had their moments.
Hillary Clinton was crisp, measured, modulated, focused, always employing the particular in the midst of the general, the embattled frontrunner did quite well. She was firm on ending the war in Iraq and firm on confronting future terrorism. Barack Obama was impressive but suffered from the debate format and its emphasis on brevity. His tendency to the abstract burns up precious time before getting to the answer. He stumbled on the hypothetical terrorist attack question, talking about first responders but forgetting about retaliation.
John Edwards delivered a typically smooth performance, but he didn’t wedge himself in between Clinton and Obama. Bill Richardson impressed with specifics and brevity on withdrawing from Iraq, and with candor on why he was last to call for Alberto Gonzales’s departure as attorney general as a fellow Latino. Joe Biden is beginning to pick up support for his plan to partition Iraq, and impressed with his one-word answer as to whether he would be a long-winded “gaffe machine.” Chris Dodd tried to turn his 32 years in the Senate and House as giving him the ultimate experience card, without evident success.
Dennis Kucinich scored with his consistent point that he has been the only Iraq War opponent who has effectively moved to end the project by defunding it. Mike Gravel delivered a very entertaining take on the bomb-thrower role, harkening to his ’70s vintage Senate role as opponent of the draft and the Vietnam War by proposing to have Congress proclaim President Bush to be a “felon.”
The candidates are all competing to be the most anti-Iraq War without seeming to give up the fight against Islamic jihadism, a balancing act between the primaries and the general election. That balancing act is made easier by several new national polls — Wall Street Journal, Pew, CBS — ranging, from 56% to 64%, showing large majorities of voters nationally supporting a timeline for withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.
They will have ample opportunity to test the applause meter at the San Diego Convention Center, where in October 2003 Arnold Schwarzenegger launched his dramatic statewide bus tour the week before his victory in the California recall election. California Democrats are strongly and deeply opposed to the Iraq policy, and the war is widely unpopular around the state.
With the Democratic candidates splitting time between South Carolina in the aftermath of last night’s debate, and at this weekend’s South Carolina Democratic convention, and the California convention, they won’t all be appearing at in succession in San Diego. Gravel will be at the chairman’s welcoming reception tonight. Clinton will address the convention tomorrow morning. Obama, Dodd, and Kucinich will speak Saturday afternoon. Edwards and Richardson will speak Sunday morning.
Many top California politicians will speak as well. Former Governor Jerry Brown, now the attorney general, will address the convention Saturday morning and Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, Treasurer Bill Lockyer, Controller John Chiang, Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O’Connell, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, and Senate President Pro Don Perata will speak at various point during the day. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will appear at the convention banquet honoring her Saturday night. But U.S. Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer will be absent, due to a Senate policy retreat.
Yet it is possible to make too much of this convention, which, unlike last year’s convention during the governor’s race, will issue no endorsements. This will be about the 30th of these things that I’ve attended, beginning at the age of two, so the thrill factor does not come easily. In the early days, they were mostly in Sacramento during that city’s then very moist and cold winters. Dashing hither and yon, I would invariably end up with a bad cold that would last for weeks. And that was without fiddling with smartphone, vidcam, and laptop.
This is a marathon campaign, following on the heels of last year’s marathon campaign. The first Republican presidential debate is next week. A Nevada campaign trip is coming up. Posting here will be light over the weekend, as befits the weekend pattern of Internet traffic generally, with full reports on Monday and later in the week if developments warrant. Lots of video footage will be shot. Much intel will be gathered. Some will actually be relevant. If something dramatic happens, I’ll write about it.
If you must have a full take over the weekend itself, our friends at the California Majority Report will have nine Democratic consultants and staffers blogging. But not to worry, I’ll be happy to debunk obvious propaganda later on. Kidding aside, it’s an interesting experiment.
Will what seem to be the news events of the weekend matter all that much? Well, back in that ‘84 campaign, after driving in from the airport with Senator Gary Hart and commenting on the then less than imposing Sacramento skyline — there was the Holiday Inn and that was about it — we had a huge volunteer operation for a longshot candidate (a few hundred people, probably larger than anything this weekend) but a convention speech that largely bombed.
Hart, as was not infrequently his wont, notwithstanding his glamour image, chose to deliver a long, policy wonk sort of address. (I remember his first big Hollywood fundraiser, at which he discussed his thoughts on a “new automobile.” Decades ahead of its time, but not a big thrill then.) The excitement ginned up at the beginning of his speech had dissipated long before he concluded. The convention wasn’t a disaster, but it was something of a disappointment. But so what? Hart won big in the California presidential primary itself a year later.
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Indeed.
Say, Bill, you toss out tidbits from time to time about the Hart campaign, and I’m curious: Is there a Hart bio or Hart-84 book that you like? If not, maybe you should write one someday. (Like, starting in December ’08. *g*)
Thanks. Not really. But I must say the thought of doing more writing is not an enticing concept at the moment.