British SAS (Special Air Service) commandos engage in a firefight in Afghanistan.
SAS would be at the heart of any hostage rescue mission in Iran.
** THE JESSE JACKSON FACTOR. Barack Obama just scored a very key endorsement in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. Reverend Jesse Jackson said today that he is supporting him. Jackson, of course, was the first major black Democratic presidential candidate, finishing third in the 1984 Democratic contest and second in the 1988 Democratic contest. I could write thousands of words about Jackson, but we’ll keep it short for now. Jackson is very important because he represents the black American, as distinguished from the multi-culti American, experience of African Americans, the latter of which is more in the somewhat exotic Obama mode (white mother, Islamic Kenyan father). He was a top aide to Martin Luther King, and was there when Dr. King was assassinated in Memphis in 1968, embracing the civil rights leader as he died.
Jackson is one of the most important figures in the history of African American politics. I remember 1984 very well, when my friend Gary Hart was somewhat unaccountably running late for the Iowa debate, which was utterly key to the emergent success of his dark horse presidential candidacy. It’s a much longer story, but we had to delay the start of the debate — which required some fast talking, I assure you — and convnce Hart’s Secret Service detail, driving him in from Omaha, Nebraska rather than the snowed-in Des Moines airport, to drive at very high speed on icy roads to get him to the Des Moines convention center in order to make the delayed time. It all worked, and when Hart arrived, he immediately went into his friend Jesse”s dressing room to chat. When they emerged, good things happened. For them. Hart emerged from the debate as a major figure, going on to move from fifth to second in Iowa, winning New Hampshire and another 25 states after that. Jackson took a half-dozen states and became the most important black political figure in America.
Jackson has long been associated with the Clintons, and his endorsement of Obama is a major blow to their effort to block Obama’s emergence with a massive black vote in the primaries. I think it is safe to say now that if Obama wins in either Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire, he will then win in South Carolina, which will set off a cascade of Southern victories for Obama. Barring, of course, a major mistake by the rookie candidate.
** FOX NEWS DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE IS SET. The Congressional Black Caucus and Fox News will partner on a Democratic presidential debate scheduled for September 23rd in Detroit, Michigan. Elements of the “netroots” attempted to dissuade the Congressional Black Caucus from this move, but were unsuccessful, with caucus officials saying their goal is to present the debate their issues discussed therein to the broadest possible audience.
** MORE REPUBLICAN TROUBLE WITH A.G. GONZALES. Still more trouble for Republicans with embattled U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. Contrary to his earlier claims, according to his former top aide, he personally decided to fire the eight U.S. attorneys dismissed in the controversial sackings. At least one, San Diego area U.S. Attorney Carol Lam, was zeroing in on big-time Republicans, having already won the corruption conviction of notorious Congressman Duke Cunningham, who was so brazen in his shakedowns he had taken to driving about in a Rolls Royce. She had just indicted a major Washington lobbyist and the former executive director of the CIA before being fired. It’s hard to imagine Gonzales lasting to this point in office were he not an old Texas friend of and longtime aide to President George W. Bush.
** IRAN DIVESTMENT BILL LOOKING GOOD. California Democratic legislative sources say the prospects for legislation by San Diego area Assemblyman John Anderson, a Republican, and Orange County Assemblyman Jose Solorio, a Democrat, look good. The bill passed the state Assembly’s retirement committee yesterday on a 4 to 1 vote. It would require the state’s two massive public pension funds, the Public Employee Retirement System and the State Teachers Retirement System, to divest from foreign firms doing business with Iran. The firms affected would include Daimler Chryslter, Hyundai, and Siemens. The Teamsters union is stongly in favor of the bill. The Service Employees International Union dropped its early opposition. But the state’s two teachers unions unsuccessfully opposed the bill at yesterday’s hearing, arguing that the pension fund board should make investment decisions independent of the political environment. Not a stance they took during the struggle to divest state funds from firms doing business with the late apartheid regime in South Africa.
** GIULIANI LEADS IN IOWA POLL. In the new Zogby telephone poll of likely Iowa Republican presidential caucus voters (not the unreliable Internet survey), Rudy Giuliani has the lead, 25% to 19% over John McCain. Mitt Romney, still working to win over conservative activists, is in third with 11%. And new potential prospect Fred Thompson has 7%. Giuliani’s lead is due to his edge among young voters and women voters.
** BRITAIN-IRAN STANDOFF CONTINUES. Dashing hopes of an early resolution, Iran has refused to release the lone female prisoner among the 15 British sailors and marines seized by radical Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval elements as they executed a routeine merchant vessel search in the Persian Gulf. While British Prime Minister Tony Blair says he wants a swift and peaceful solution to the crisis, multiple sources indicate that planning is well underway for a special operations solution involving British and US special forces in a search and rescue mission inside Iran. At the core of the operation would be the British SAS (Special Air Service) — seen in action in the video above — which served as the model for many of the world’s top special operations forces, including those of the United States, beginning with the Green Berets established by President John F. Kennedy and continuing through the super-secret Delta Force.
One notable element of the present crisis is that a low-intensity but very real “intelligence war” seems to be already underway between Western and Iranian forces. A leading Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated, some say by the Israeli Mossad. A top Iranian general and leading intelligence official defected recently, apparently after several years of providing intelligence to the US and others in the West. A leading Israeli defense ministry official was apparently assassinated in Europe. Iranian agents have been discovered — surprise! — operating inside Iraq, and five Iranian officials, ostensibly diplomats, but operating without proper diplomatic credentials, have been captured and detained inside Iraq by US forces. Then there are the guerilla attacks inside Iran, carried out by Iranian dissidents, of whom there are many, and reportedly backed by US and British special ops forces.
How might an SAS-led hostage rescue mission go inside Iran? Well, SAS has carried out many operations which remain secret. One that was not, in 1980, involved the taking of some 20 British citizens, who were held inside the Iranian embassy in London by a half-dozen Islamic jihadist militants. SAS assaulted the embassy and rescued the hostages, swiftly killing all but one of the Iranian radicals in the process. But operations in another country are more problematical.
The Israeli Sayeret Matkal, working against very poorly-trained Third World soldiers in Uganda, pulled off the fabled raid on Entebbe in 1976, rescuing over 100 hostages at the airport there. 45 Ugandan soldiers were killed in the operation, verus only three hostages and just one Israeli — the commander of the operation, future Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s brother. But an attempt to rescue American hostages at the US embassy in Tehran in 1980 failed due to a mishap with helicopters in a sandstorm at the rendezvous point known as Desert One. Much has been learned since then, of course. On both sides. The Israeli military, for example, suffered notable setbacks in its largely unsuccessful war last year against Hezbollah. All Israeli hostages taken last year remain in the hands of Hezbollah.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are at or near six-month highs — in the $64 to $67 barrel range — as the British hostage crisis in Iran drags into a sixth day.
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| Comments (89) |
Sorry, my post was the last one.
Also, since we are looking back at the 84 campaign-Hart came in a very distant 2nd. I believe that Mondale got about 50% and Hart got about 15%.
The big story was that John Glenn collapsed, so people saw this new guy, the Atari Democrat, which helped Hart surge, till the ‘wheres the beef’ line helped sink Hart, though it wasnt over till the convention.
Bill, why was Hart late to the debate?
Was it juicy or just some other interesting campaign incident.
Well, Fred Thompson has now “arrived.” Penultimate Evangelical Curmudgeon James Dobson has attacked him for not *really* being a Christian in Dobson’s unassailable judgment. Thus Thompson joins the other name candidates in Dobson’s evangelical purgatory. Just who are they waiting for? Oh, that’s right, I remember now. But I don’t think He is planning to run.
Well, you are simply wrong about that. Jesse was President Clinton’s minister during the impeachment crisis.
>Anonymous :
Frankly, I dont think the clintons and jackson are close at all. They had a highly publiscized spat in 92 when Clinton thought Jesse had endorsed another candidate and said many disparaging things about him. Jesse, since he is now post civil rights and more about Jesse, just goes with whomever gives him the most-publicity, money whatever. Moreover, Jackson had no choice. was he really going to endorse a White person over the most serious black presidential candidate in history?
I just hope that it doesnt hurt barack!
Mar 29, 2007 04:49 PM
You’re stretching the numbers a bit on either end — I was Hart’s Iowa political director — but all we had to do to upend the campaign was finish second and emerge from Iowa as the challenger. Which we did. Hart was very well organized in New Hampshire and we raised money for a TV blitz there during the final week of Iowa.
The other thing is a longer story. Not salacious, having to do with my old friend and colleague, former super-consultant, presidential pollster, and West Wing producer Pat Caddell.
“Where’s the beef” was nonsense, since Hart was the most substantive candidate in the field. It only worked well enough for Mondale to win two of the seven contests against us on Super Tuesday — I worked Nevada — Georgia and Alabama, and then only with John Glenn spending millions of illegal dollars in unsecured Ohio bank loans to spoil and split the anti-Mondale vote.
Folks, really now, let’s not waste any more time in this way.
Some of you thought I was pro-Hillary. Wrong. I simply give her her due. Now I’m factually challenged on what the Jackson endorsement of Obama means.
I’ve been there. In fact, I was there.
It’s eminently reasonable to say this is a blow to HRC’s hopes to contain Obama. It would have served her well to keep the “black enough” debate going.
Jackson knows there could be postelection costs associated with backing the “wrong” candidate, too. Yet declined an invitation to ride on the frontrunner’s train. Since I rarely give him much credit any more for doing “the right thing” for the right reasons, I think this may also be a strong indication of how HE handicaps where the black vote is going.
Bill, I agree that ‘wheres the beef’ was nonsense, but it was effective, no?
As for Jesse being Clintons minister, are you kidding? Jesse is a huge womanizer-everyone knows that; his girlfriend was stashed away at Ron Burkles company. Clinton didnt take Jesse seriously-it just gave Clinton some cover that he was ‘working on the problem’.
What relationshiop have they had since then? None!
Who knows what you think you are talking about, but if you lived in America during the Clinton impeachment and remember what happened, you should know this.
I would advise you not to waste any more of my time. You thought it was okay to say Cheney should die, as I recall.
Incidentally, “where’s the beef?” was much less effective than $4 million in illegal Ohio bank loans for John Glenn TV ads in Georgia and Alabama, the only thing that prevented Hart from going 7 for 7 on Super Tuesday against Mondale.
>Anonymous :
Bill, I agree that ‘wheres the beef’ was nonsense, but it was effective, no?
As for Jesse being Clintons minister, are you kidding? Jesse is a huge womanizer-everyone knows that; his girlfriend was stashed away at Ron Burkles company. Clinton didnt take Jesse seriously-it just gave Clinton some cover that he was ‘working on the problem’.
What relationshiop have they had since then? None!
Exactly, the Rev, or “Jesse Jetstream,” as I ‘ve frequently called him, calls things the way he sees them. Obama is for real. He has a real chance of winning this thing. Hillary is going to have to keep improving in order to prevent that.
> Wilbur :
It’s eminently reasonable to say this is a blow to HRC’s hopes to contain Obama. It would have served her well to keep the “black enough” debate going.
Jackson knows there could be postelection costs associated with backing the “wrong” candidate, too. Yet declined an invitation to ride on the frontrunner’s train. Since I rarely give him much credit any more for doing “the right thing” for the right reasons, I think this may also be a strong indication of how HE handicaps where the black vote is going.
Mar 29, 2007 05:11 PM
Where’s that political betting site? I wanna go check the odds that Rev. Al will cross the line next. I wonder if he ever figured out who really planted that tabloid story saying he was “jealous” of Obama.
Well the Saudi hosted “Arab Summit” (3/28-29) press reports are finally dribbling out!…
“Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal has voiced his country’s support for approving Iran’s request for observer status in the Arab League”
“First Woman ever (Bahraini) addresses Arab summit”
“At the request of U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, Saudi Arabia has granted an entrance visa to reporter Orly Azulay of the Israeli daily Yediot Aharonot, to cover the Arab summit in Riyadh. Azulay, who arrived from Qatar, covered her hair with a scarf. She was received warmly at the airport by a representative of the Information Ministry and was assured that she was most welcome. A key Saudi reporter told her: “Your presence here signifies a new era for a lot of people.”
and here is a link to King Abdullah’s Arab Summit Keynote Address
http://aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=3&id=8477
wow Bill, I am not sure why you are so upset with me.
But, 2 final points from me on this;
1) I never said Cheney should die. I said that its understandable why he inspires such hatred. I never said it was OK. You owe me an apology.
2) You said you were ‘factually challenged as to what an Jackson endorsement means’. The only fact is that Jesse endorsed. How it will affect the race is speculation. Educated speculation, albeit.
And so I will paraphrase Alexander Haig ‘ Nobody has a monopoly on the truth, not even you Bill Bradley!
Spin it however you want, Mitch, but I nearly banned you for your Cheney comments.
As you know.
I told you that your opinion was sick.
As for your Jackson remarks, you were either thoroughly ignorant or simply distorting the truth. Jackson was Bill Clinton’s very highly publicized minister during the impeachment crisis.
I’ve now written several hundred words dealing with your distortions.
Back to the Obama Southern scenario you laid out, are you completely writing-off Edwards for South Carolina? Seems like recent events put Obama in a much better position sure, but it seems SC is more in play than ever before.
Only if Obama wins early. Meanwhile, Edwards alread fell behind in South Carolina. He’s trying to recoup with all the endorsements I just reported.
Back to the Arab Summit…
Looks like Israel/Palestinian Conflict and Sudan were high on the agenda and Iraq and Lebanon low…the latter 2 conflicts need Iran’s full participation so most likely they would have been handled in a very private manner …so maybe some headway was made and we have to just wait and watch…
BUT I am beginning to think that the Saudi’s are more than just irritated with US/Bush Admin…this may be more serious…
of course, I am sure the slaughter of some 70 Sunni’s in Iraq at the hands of of Iraqi Police happening on the first day of the Summit must have reached the King’s ears and it must have been a painful reminder about how bad things are since the US invaded Iraq…not just for Iraq but for all…
Good — down, but not out.
Definitely not out. This is a multi-dimensional deal.
That was a very high-profile, irritated statement fot the Saudis to make kicking off the summit. Especially since they are buying so much high tech US military hardware …
>Barbara :
Back to the Arab Summit…
Looks like Israel/Palestinian Conflict and Sudan were high on the agenda and Iraq and Lebanon low…the latter 2 conflicts need Iran’s full participation so most likely they would have been handled in a very private manner …so maybe some headway was made and we have to just wait and watch…
BUT I am beginning to think that the Saudi’s are more than just irritated with US/Bush Admin…this may be more serious…
of course, I am sure the slaughter of some 70 Sunni’s in Iraq at the hands of of Iraqi Police happening on the first day of the Summit must have reached the King’s ears and it must have been a painful reminder about how bad things are since the US invaded Iraq…not just for Iraq but for all…
Mar 29, 2007 06:16 PM
Is Jesse still the force he was 15-20 years ago? As mentioned he has a reputation of parachting and grandstanding (often w/little knowledge) when a controversy occurs and a certain stripe of leftist want publicity and play the Jesse card (i.e. a press conference w/Jackson is guaranteed to draw TV cameras). He sometimes still does good for the community (without his help some years ago mediating between politicians and unions a bus driver strike in L.A. would have dragged on for months) but I think his endorsement isn’t as major as it would have been before his star faded (remember his having a lover on the payroll–that also took some of the shine off his star). Maybe Jackson merely benefits because a new generation of leadership hasn’t been overly appearent, leaving a vacuum he fills be default?
Obama has been lacking a signal to the African AMERICAN community. It actually won’t take a huge amount to activate victories for him in Southern primaries, given the Democratic registration figures.
BTW, folks, you can make similarly snarky comments about white politicians. I think you will find that such comments are not well received in black Democratic circles with regard to black politicians. Unless, perhaps, you are black.
Meanwhile, the Congressional Black Caucus could give a flying frack what the netroots thinks about holding debates with Fox News, which they are doing, one Dem, one Rep.
Forget Jesse Jackson, doesn’t Warren Beatty have a birthday coming?
In our collective defense, I believe we’ve been pretty snarky to politicians of every race, creed, national origin and sexual preference. And if we’ve overlooked anyone, I’m sure we can quickly remedy that. :-}
On a serious note, while I agree Rev. Jackson has probably lost much of his influence as a leader whose opinions hold sway over a large following, particularly among the young, his endorsement carries a different and hefty significance because it really drives a nail in that “black enough” nonsense which I believe others were quietly encouraging for their own cynical purposes, purposes which did not necessarily emphasizing the concerns of African Americans. Younger voters may not care much what Jesse Jackson thinks about contemporary issues, but he is unmistakably an icon of the black American experience, and he just welcomed Obama into the family.
The CBC sure will care when Obama, Edwards, and Richardson stay away making it Hillary and the Four Dwarfs.
BTW recent polling shows Obama even with Guiliani for the big enchelada. And he already beats the others. This is getting interesting.
Richard, I know you like to type this stuff here and on Marc Cooper’s site, and god knows where else, but it won’t happen.
I’m not going to waste more of my time telling you what I told you there …
Those folks are actually running for President of the United States, not class president of the Casper the Friendly Ghost blogosphere.
Here’s an important point for the lefty blog types who waste everyone’s time in the Democratic Party — and my time, as a too accessible journalist — with this post-modern/redefine reality crapola.
You want to elect a new President?
Great, go do it, Stop wasting time.
Gee that’s what I thought we were doing. Guess we should have listened to Harold Ford and the DLC types. Really worked out well, didn’t it?
I’m sorry, are you attempting to articulate something?
Frankly, I don’t have a dog in this hunt. Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Richardson are all OK by me and I have no idea yet who makes the best candidate or who would be the best President. All have pluses and minuses. But I’ve seen enough to know that a lot of what has passed for conventional wisdom just isn’t very wise.
That is right. It is fairly wide open. Any of those characters could win. And, for the record, I could happily vote for any of those four.
My advice is this. Stop fooling around with what TV network cablecasts debates — everyone of those folks will appear on Fox News, trust me on that, since they are actually running for President of the United States — and pick somebody among them and go for it!
The Saudis ARE really irritated. In addition to the remarks at the Arab summit, last week King Abdullah cancelled a formal White House state dinner scheduled for April, citing the old reliable “scheduling conflicts.” I assume the “conflict” didn’t exist when the dinner was scheduled.
Jackson, in my opinion, is very much still a key to the black community, and this was in my opinion a bit unexpected, at least because the endorsement came so early. Jackson has long been revered as the key spokesperson of the Black community, and I think he was a bit taken aback at the Democratic Convention in Boston when all the attention and focus was on Obama. To me it is a classy move for him to go with Obama early and definitively, well in advance of any of the caucuses, particularly given his past close associations with the Clintons (yes I remember Jackson spending time at the White House during Lewitsky goings on) and with other major candidates.
England must be strong with the Persians. California going aginst investing in the country is good sign.
Good for the Black Caucus. This is real politics, real time.
Mr. Bradley:”That was a very high-profile, irritated statement fot the Saudis to make kicking off the summit. Especially since they are buying so much high tech US military hardware”
The statement was a signal… and they know and we know we will not stop selling them hardware…but they are not happy about our lack of support for the new PNA gov…they appear that they are going to make that an issue, even a test as to what our relationship is with them
And to FNC’s credit, they have one of the few black pundits in the country working full time in Juan Williams. He will actually make their coverage of the debates relevant.
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