An F/A 18 Hornet launches off the deck of USS Eisenhower. The US Navy has
begun its largest Persian Gulf exercise since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
** NUMBERS, WE GOT NUMBERS. I’m going through quite a few polling results, from California and elsewhere. Very interesting stuff which will dominate much of the late week coverage at NWN. Not out of line with what you’ve been reading here.
** U.S. SENATE VOTES FOR IRAQ WITHDRAWAL. The Senate just voted to back a timetable for withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq, 50 to 48. Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson and Nebraska Republican Chuck Hagel switched from no votes on March 15th to yes votes on March 27th.
** ARNOLD’S PRISON BREAK. Although the Legislature is about to break again for Easter recess, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said today that he thinks they are close to a solution on the California prison crisis. A federal court is threatening to take over the system, which is now terribly overcrowded, and might set an arbitrary cap on the overall number of prisoners, leading to release of criminals still doing their time. Schwarzenegger says that would be “a disaster. We could have dangerous criminals roaming the neighborhoods.”
Although some critics see no progress, Schwarzenegger does. The state Assembly yesterday passed a bill allowing judges greater discretion in setting sentences. The US Supreme Court earlier this year threw out California’s sentencing law. Schwarzenegger says he believes a solution will be found because one must be found. It’s not unlike the infrastructure bill last year. For long stretches of time, there was no apparent progress. But it ultimately came together.
** WILL SENATE DEMOCRATS GET IT DONE THIS TIME? The US Senate is moving toward a vote on another Iraq pullout measure, this one inserted in funding for the overall war effort. It’s a conditional deadline of March 2008. Senate Republicans, mindful of having members facing dicey re-elections next year, won’t attempt to filibuster the legislation, removing the need to have Republicans oppose allowing the bill to come to a vote. Similar legislation failed 48 to 50 last time, with Republican John McCain offf on the campaign trail and Democrat Tim Johnson still recovering from a brain ailment and unable to come to the floor to vote. With Joe Liebeman a certain no vote, Democrats are hoping to attract Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson and Arkansas Democrat Mark Pryor.
** EDWARDS RAMPS UP SOUTH CAROLINA SUPPORT. John Edwards, who had lately fallen behind in the fourth-in-the-nation South Carolina Democratic presidential primary, yesterday got a boost there as he unveiled the broadest group of state endorsers of any candidate. Edwards, the former U.S. senator from North Carolina and 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee, is a native of South Carolina. He won there in 2004, and almost certainly must win there next year.
** SCHWARZENEGGER WEBCAST AT 11:15 AM. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger discusses his water policy proposals in a live webcast from the Department of Water Resources operations center at 11:15 this morning.
** CARRIER BATTLE GROUPS CONDUCT WAR GAMES OFF IRAN. Two U.S. Navy aircraft carrier battle groups have begun an exercise in the Persian Gulf. The groups, which center on the USS Eisenhower and USS Stennis, are conducting air strike and air and sea defense operations. This is the biggest naval operation in the Gulf since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. US forces promise to respect the territorial waters of Iran, which extend twelve miles from shore into the Gulf. Meanwhile, the stand-off between Britain and Iran over the seizure of 15 British sailors and marines is in its fourth day.
** GIULIANI TO NEVADA. With the Nevada Republican Party in the process of moving its presidential caucus up to January 19th, which would match the Nevada Democratic caucus as the second-in-the-nation contest, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani travels to Nevada tomorrow. Giuliani leads in early polling in Nevada, with John McCain running second.
** DID CALIFORNIA CHANGE THE CLINTON STRATEGY? Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe says that it was the rumored move of the California presidential primary to February 5th that accelerated his candidate’s announcement plans and changed the nature of the race. The rise of Barack Obama might have had something to do with it, too.
** ARNOLD’S WATER WEEK CONTINUES. After touring a Central Valley dam and speaking to Fresno community leaders yesterday about his plan to add more above ground water storage, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger this morning tours the state Department of Water Resources’ operations center in Sacramento and discusses the water portion in Phase II of his Strategic Growth Plan. Schwarzenegger wants to spend $6 billion upgrading water transfer systems, expanding water storage, and conserving natural waterways. He’s making his pitch for more water storage based on population growth and the impact of the greenhouse effect on the Sierra snowpacks. Many environmentalists prefer conservation efforts to water storage, which led to the derailing of moves to add one or two dams to last year’s Phase I of the Strategic Growth Plan. The Fresno Bee editorialized this morning in favor of a new dam outside Fresno.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices remain up with the continuing Iranian crisis, in the $62 to $65 per barrel range.
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This is a MAJOR exercise ….warships, over a 100 warplanes and approx 10,000 personnel…this will no doubt be a topic of chit chat around the water coolers at the Arab Summit…Along with Blair’s threat to Iran that IF diplomatic channels to NOT resolve this situation with the seamen The British government would advance to a “different phase”….
I wonder how vulnerable those ships are to attack.
How likely is it that a dam gets approved?
It’s just an exercise a very big message …nothing is going to happen immediately with a crucial Arab Summit HOURS away hosted by a U.S. friend in the ME …and the Iranians are feeling much better they have a big bargaining chip…the chances of a problem working out in a diplomatic way is always better when everyone has something someone else wants…
We’ll see what they want.
Mr. Bradley:We’ll see what they want
You know what they want…and even if you should not (which I do not believe for a minute) the Saudis understand want they want …and the Iranians understand they are not going to get everything they want…that is why Mottaki is there and not anyone else…The US is handling this just fine at the moment, no doubt taking their cues from the British and the Saudis… from Burns remarks I am sure Condi and Gates have locked Cheney and Abrams in a closet…the British always know what they are doing …no body undertsands risk management like the British…BTW, I really like Hayden…if the CIA can be rebuilt after Cheney’s rape and punder …he appears to be the man who can to it…
I’m not so sure what they want. It may not be prisoner exchange.
NRDC calls Temperance Flat, “the dumbest dam in America.” Dems in the legislature can kill almost any dam proposal by forcing proponents to answer three questions: how much will the water cost taxpayers, who gets the water and how much will they pay for it? You need good answers to all those questions and proponents usually don’t.
Anyone delving in to water policy should read “Cadillac Desert” first as preparation for the discussion.
The Fresno Bee editorialized for the dam today.
After I read “Cadillac Desert” many years ago, I was shocked when I drove into the Owens Valley and found it looked very different from what the author described.
“The Bee supports the idea of a new dam at Temperance Flat, assuming the engineering and environmental studies underway confirm its feasibility.”
You know what happens when you assume…
It seems pretty logical that you want to catch the run-off from the mountains. lol
Mr. Bradley:I’m not so sure what they want. It may not be prisoner exchange.
Of course not…this is NOT about a prisoner exchange …these are big stakes at play …this is about what the future Sunni- Shia map of the ME, and Israel Palestinian conflict …and somewhat… future U.S.- Iran relations …but it is mostly about the how much influence the Iranians will have in Iraq post US-Iraq conflict…
They see and needed the seaman as new leverage for bargaining in Iraq and most likely to make a big point that they can combat covert acts of aggression…they appeared to be taken by surprise by Russia’s recent actions and that Russia China & EU backed second resolution…and they have taken some BIG HITS from covert actions…
The Saudis understand that something has to be brokered and still allow everyone to keep their dignity and honor…The Saudis want something too… they want a new Iraq constitution with more power for the Sunnis…and they are going to get that…
Water policy is very complicated, but one of the most important reform principles is that users should pay for their service/benefits. The Governor’s Temperance Flat deal envisions $2 billion in revenue bonds that would be paid by users or about half the cost.
If users were required to pay all post-entitlement costs, Brasky’s good questions would get quality answers. Although urban and agricultural users would love additional heavily subsidized water just like they receive from the current state and federal water projects, paying the full cost will drive conservation and a more cost efficient allocation of existing supplies between competing urban and agricultural users.
I’m not sure Iran will get much out of this particular caper. It may actually be retaliation for the Brits playing a role in splitting Shiites in Iraq, something not easily undone.
It’s 9:32 pm in Riyadh I wonder if King Abdullah is having a little “ice breaker” for attendees right now!…heck, he could have hired me to be the event coordinator! I would even be agreeable to do the check-in at registration!…I can’t wait to read the first press reports late tonight!
The Iranians have Sunbeam anti-ship missiles, I’ve shown videos of them in action here on NWN, that should be handled if it comes to it by US Navy defensive systems.
>Jonas Blane :
I wonder how vulnerable those ships are to attack.
Mar 27, 2007 07:47 AM
Continuing my sometimes unpopular analysis of Hillary’s electability should she become Democratic Party nominee for President. From TheHill.com http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/fifty-percent-of-americans-would-not-vote-for-clinton-2007-03-27.html
“Half of voting-age Americans say they would not vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) if she became the Democratic nominee for president in 2008, according to a Harris Interactive poll released Tuesday.”
Nearly half of the respondents said that they dislike Clinton’s political opinions and Clinton as a person. Fifty-two percent of people also said that “she does not appear to connect with people on a personal level.”
British splitting Shiites in Iraq
yep… that out’s there in one of the first analysis I have read last Friday BUT that is exactly the problem from their point…The Iranians would like to see Shia’s united and on board with them and their chosen surrogate…
The British did a good job with the “splitting” …but they are leaving the area ….the Iranians are staying …
I happen now to believe the report that there is an agent(s) on board…that has been out there since Friday but last night I read 2 credible reports about it…The Iranians have leverage with this incident if they have an agent…the British understand that …that is why everyone is tip toeing around…
a full scale intel blow up will do no one any good just get a lot of well trained well placed people taken out on all sides…
Not good numbers, KK, the worst I’ve seen. And yet …
She has high unfavorables in New York, too. It all depends on the match-ups, and numbers can change.
Ask Arnold Schwarzenegge.
Does Schwarzenegger have water on the brain?
I don ‘t believe that Harris poll.
Harris still sucks, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Most of the front runners (both Reep and Dem) have to convince voters they are the best candidate – which is hard enough. In order to win (the general), Hillary is in the position of actually having to get a portion of those who don’t like her now to switch their opinion and vote for her – that’s really hard.
Other candidates have baggage (and A LOT of it), but most voters haven’t made their judgments yet on what that means to them. Unfortunately for Hillary, many folks have already judged her.
Look at Arnold. His greatest asset was that voters never considered him a politician. Because of this, his past peccadilloes, behavior and image were largely compartmentalized by voters as belonging to “Arnold the Movie Star.” They were willing to judge “Arnold the Candidate” by different criteria.
Hillary doesn’t get the same benefit – her public image has always been along the arc of a politician. Voters will use their past judgments when judging her now, which is to her detriment.
Interesting reports out now that the day is over …there appears to be quite a bit of waltzing going on …The Saudi’s invited India to have an “observer” status at the Summit…..and a PNA “request” is attributed to that move…that is very intriguing ….as India reps were recently in Israel to get anti- Terrorist training hints, which India appears to need pronto…..India is also advocating for Iran to become a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)….India also joined up with South Africa in an attempt to broker a timeout on the recently passed UN resolution/sanctions/Iran….
A big pro Gov Sunni against Sunni insurgent car bomb attack in Baghdad marred the day…. but the DRAFT reformed “de-Baathification legislation” is moving forward in Iraq parliament and cabinet…
European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana talked with Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Larijani on behalf of the international community, and told him everyone (including US) are interested in “renewing talks and negotiating to resolve differences”. Solana however did not back down on suspension of uranium enrichment as a pre-requisite but, Larijani agreed to further talks….. in a few days…..I assume he just might mean after the Arab Summit ends…
and the British Foreign Secretary is in Turkey today for the next 3 days meeting with Turkey’s PM and FM and Turkey’s EU negotiator …a timely visit, but it may be too little too late …I hope not.. I would prefer Turkey to look West than East..but the US and EU are pushing them East…not so sure in the wisdom of that as they and Iran have a certain mutual border concern…
Reading just one of Babs’ posts is the equivalent of listening to BBC World Service and NPR for 12 hours straight. The first presidential candidate to promise Babs a position at State gets my vote.
Brasky,
you are very kind…
Well unfortunately I feel compelled to provide these “reports”..they are “reports” out there IF you know where to look in certain press publications and Think Tanks…and I only repeat what I believe is important to relay and is a credible report ..I have a special interest as I plan to go back to Grad School abroad sometime in the next 2 years…and I do have many contacts in ME there from living and working there during the 80′s and still visit the region on a fairly regular basis …I have a big trip planned next fall to Jordan with an international group to see Iraqi refugee camps…Americans in general are very ill informed about the world …even we saw (w/Reyes) some our elected officials and many journalists …there are also some incredible journalists Ware on CNN, the NYT gentlemen, Christine Amanpour …but the one person whose writing showed a real understanding of the Muslim world culturally and socially was ironically and sadly Daniel Pearl …in any event, in a global world we are in …any economic, environmental issues and conflict don’t stay local anymore…
I don’t buy that poll. And I think if you have to spend so much energy convincing that Hillary is unelectable, you are still convincing yourself.
a report has Syria FM asserting that Syria has the “same position regarding Iran” as the Saudis!!!! This is a pre- Summit statement release… it is the middle of the night there …this… if correct could be very good news for making some progress in stabilizing Lebanon…
I hadn’t heard that report about Syria, Barbara, that’s very promising.
You seem to be forgetting that Arnold once in office was accepted and judge highly popular. Then he went down the tubes in 2005 and was judged by many to be dead meat.
Before he recovered last year. His names went up dramatically — while in the midst of the election year itself!
>Look at Arnold. His greatest asset was that voters never considered him a politician. Because of this, his past peccadilloes, behavior and image were largely compartmentalized by voters as belonging to “Arnold the Movie Star.” They were willing to judge “Arnold the Candidate” by different criteria.
Hillary doesn’t get the same benefit – her public image has always been along the arc of a politician. Voters will use their past judgments when judging her now, which is to her detriment.
Re: Syria
Yes!It is …especially, as it is said today ..up front …before the Summit starts…it’s 1:33 am Wed the 28 in Riyadh! just a few more hours!
… Incidentally, I think it should be clear to folks that I don’t have a favorite among the candidates. There are at least a half-dozen I can vote for, from both parties. It’s an impressive field.
“You seem to be forgetting that Arnold once in office was accepted and judge highly popular.”
Because he still wasn’t seen as a politician. Like gravity, I can’t explain it, I can only tell you that it’s real.
“Then he went down the tubes in 2005 and was judged by many to be dead meat.”
He wasn’t as damaged as many had thought, he changed direction dramatically and voters still wanted to see him succeed. So here we are.
Barbara writes: “The Saudis understand that something has to be brokered and still allow everyone to keep their dignity and honor…The Saudis want something too… they want a new Iraq constitution with more power for the Sunnis…and they are going to get that…”
This may be true but don’t the Saudis – that is, the royal family of the oil rich kingdom – want more: to preserve their corrupt kingdom, their polluted wealth and their privileged lifestyles? They were able to summon oil baron Dick Cheney to their private chambers but their hold on power is threatened and their days are numbered. In the 21st century shouldn’t we be way past the era of kings and royals?
Ah, but Bill Brasky, I had some of the biggest Democratic consultants around telling me how HATED Arnold was in focus groups after the special election.
Despised.
No credibility.
Dead on his feet.
The news from Republican sources wasn’t so hot, either.
Why did Arnold “recover?” Simple he ran as far and as fast as he could from the GOP and was lucky to not have someone from there challenge his Republican credentials in the primary (as I believe they would now). His campaign in 2006 stressed things like health care, education, and the infrastructure and the only GOP note was his insistance that all could be done with no tax increases – good in the shortterm but he’ll be gone by the time it catches up with us. The rest of the party (Which dared not speak its name in Arnold’s campaign) went down hard but the governator survived. If he had continued to channel Pete Wilson, Phil Angelides (lame as he was) would be sitting in that office in Sacramento today.
And the Republicans have NO ONE to replace Arnold in 2010 wheras the Dems will have several possibilities, including – I guess – Jerry Brown who can run again.
You know, it’s important not to get to caught up in ideology in discussing politics. Because ideology — from an ideologue standpoint — in real world politics is pretty flexible. And ideologues tend to get smashed in actual elections. Unless they’re incumbents, in which case they win by attrition.
Arnold got back to the guy people thought they’d elected in 2003. Everything he’s saying now is more more or less consistent with what he was saying 3, 4, 5 years ago.
Which is all off my point. And thank you very much for that.
The point being that many “experts” were convinced that Arnold was beyond salvage. That the voters had irrevocably turned against him.
Not so.
Bill — were these the same consultants who said Phil would win?
I was actually shocked at how little damaged he was post-election. I won’t go into details in order to keep my secret identity…
I think Reeps were mostly shocked at the low turn-out (and poor performance among those who did) in Reep strongholds like OC.
Richard — I think in a crazy fantasy match up, even Pete Wilson would beat Phil Angelides. Also, for 2010, you’re forgetting Arnold’s heir apparent, Poizner. He’s a self-funding moderate Reep (whatever that means these days) in an age of contribution limits. That’s a significant threat right there.
“Arnold got back to the guy people thought they’d elected in 2003. Everything he’s saying now is more more or less consistent with what he was saying 3, 4, 5 years ago.”
That’s it in a nutshull. People said “I remember THIS Arnold, THIS is the one I like.”
Also, someone forgot to say it, so I will — Mike Murphy is an idiot.
No, actually, they included more than two sharp critics of Angelides.
>Brasky :
Bill — were these the same consultants who said Phil would win?
… Steve Poizner is an impressive guy. I voted for him. I’ve studied tape on him. He’s not ready yet to be a winning candidate for governor of California, certainly not against an experienced Democratic politician.
Yes, Poizner would be eaten alive by a popular, well-funded Dem.
However, given our recent debacle of a Dem primary (where an unpopular, poorly-funded Dem was elected), I wouldn’t rule him out as a threat in 2010. I don’t think the Dems can repeat the disaster of 2006 if they tried (and they might), but Poizner is the only blip I can see on the Reep radar screen that constitutes a threat.
I agree.
I hope the intention of the US by putting the Fleet in the Gulf is to send Iran a Hallmark [when you care to send the very best] greeting card to commemorate old times, when the US was detaining and sinking Iranian vessels in the Gulf. Seems that Iran started “negotiating” with the US [giving concessions] soon thereafter.
Isn’t Poizner kinda of geeky?
Good on the Senate!
We better not cut and run in Afghanistan.
Well, well, well, …Russian atomic energy agency spokesman said that while construction deadlines are off due to the recent delay… some 2000 workers are back building the Bushehr nuclear power plant because Iran is back making payments again!…This is all going to get very interesting the next few days!
Don’t jump the gun. Iran has only made partial payments.
No Russian nuclear fuel is flowing yet.
Schwarzeengger wil get a prison deal.