** U.S. PUSH FOR RE-BAATHIFICATION. After executing what turned out to be a disastrous de-Baathification — then the stripping of Iraqi governmental posts from members of Saadam Hussein’s ruling Baath Party and firing of members of the Iraqi Army on the same lines, which merely created a vast pool of potential insurgents — the US is now finally successfully pushing a re-Baathification of the Iraqi govenment.
** ANOTHER BAD SIGN FOR ALBERTO GONZALES. In another bad sign for embattled US Attorney General Albert Gonzales, his legal counsel and White House liaison will invoke the 5th amendment to avoid testifying in the controversy around the firings of eight US attorneys around the country, two of them in California. Senator Dianne Feinstein has called for the ouster of Gonzales, who previously claimed he had no particular knowledge of the firings but it has since been revealed participated in a meeting planning the firings.
** ANGELIDES ASKED GARRY SOUTH FOR MONEY. Democratic strategist Garry South reveals that he, too, received the e-mails last week from unsuccessful Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides asking for money to advertise against 19 California Republican members of Congress urging them to vote for Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s anti-Iraq War legislation. The advertising was to run well after the vote itself. South is Angelides’ most public critic in the Democratic Party. “Who knows what he was thinking?,” asks South. “it’s like his campaign last fall against Arnold Schwarzenegger. Inexplicable.”
** WHAT IS PHIL ANGELIDES DOING? So the landslide Democratic loser of last year’s California governor’s race has set up a group called Stand Up For California. And has been e-mailing people on his list asking for money to fight the Iraq War. Probably not why people were supporting him for governor, and a notably unsuccessful issue for him, as viewers of the NWN video of his big anti-war rally last fall have noted. But perhaps a rallying point for someone trying to keep his political career alive.
Yet here is where it gets quite peculiar. Last week, Angelides was e-mailing his list asking for $10,000 to fund unspecified advertisements against “19 members of Congress” from California standing in the way of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s bill to withdraw troops from Iraq by the fall of 2008. Who were the 19? All Republicans, as it happens. Which was odd in itself, since passage of the bill was actually dependent on the votes of Democrats, more than a few from California, who were refusing to vote for the Pelosi bill because it wasn’t radical enough. The Republicans were all opposed to the bill anyway, and Phil Angelides is one of the last people on the planet to convince them otherwise.
Then it got even more peculiar. Late last week, Angelides e-mailed his list again, saying he was still $8,500 short — meaning he had only raised $1,500 for this peculiar venture — and needed it by April 1st to do the advertising needed to pass the Pelosi bill by moving those 19 Republicans. Actually, as NWN readers know, the vote was last Friday. April 1st is next weekend. Unless this was a big April Fool’s joke by the always amusing Angelides, these moves make no sense at all. Not unlike his general election campaign last year.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCASTS TODAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will speak at the Friant Dam outside Fresno at 10:45 AM today and will address the Rotary Club of Fresno at 12:30 PM. As I mentioned early this morning, it’s water week for the governor.
** VILSACK ENDORSES HILLARY. Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, who dropped out of the Democratic presidential race after appearing at last month’s Nevada Presidential forum in Carson City, today endorses Hillary Clinton for president. This will be a major boost for her in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, where she has been trailing John Edwards. Here is what Vilsack says in in his endorsement statement:
When I first ran for governor of Iowa in 1998, many people didn’t give me much of a chance. But not Hillary. She told me she’d do everything she could do to help, and she followed through. She stood by my side, and Iowa is better for it. She helped ignite the spark that changed Iowa from a red state to a blue state.
By standing with Hillary now we’ll help show that we are strong enough to win back the White House — and America will be stronger and better for it.
** BRITAIN-IRAN CRISIS CONTINUES. In a surprise for global oil traders and some others who back their bets on the future with dollars, the UK-Iran crisis over the seizure of 15 British sailors and marines on the Shatt Al Arab continues. Iran has still not turned over the British personnel, who had just inspected a merchant ship suspected of smuggling into Iraqi waters, and is making loud noises about trying them for illegally crossing into Iranian territory, if not for espionage itself. Meanwhile, Britain, as one might suppose from its history, is giving away nothing. Time for Iran to find a face-saving move.
** IT’S WATER WEEK FOR ARNOLD. As distinguished from Waterworld. That was not a Schwarzenegger picture, it was a Kevin Costner picture. Not that bad, actually, and much more popular than supposed. Actually … Governor Schwarzenegger will be focusing on California water issues this week. Water storage, and water transfer. Today he will be in the Fresno area, where he will tour a dam and give a speech. Quite a few of his Republican colleagues want a dam in the Fresno area, and thought they were going to get one last year in the Big Bang Bonds infrastructure package, before being shot down by state Senate Democrats.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are in the $62 to $64 per barrel range, the highest prices of the year, with the latest Iranian crisis.
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The Iranians are making a huge mistake.
They may be desperate but they can’t be this stupid.
The Iranians have moved the 15 Brit Sailors and Marines to Tehran for “Questioning”. I’m sure that Tony Blair is thrilled that great pal GWB believes that the Geneva Convention is “Quaint” Wonder how they view it in Iran?
They know the British have long experience in the region. If the Brits were running the show there all this would have gone much better.
Water is a touchy issue for the left–especially storage versus conservation as a strategy.
As we have mentioned Karl Rove in previous threads, I just want to mention I am dumbfounded Andrew Sullivan and I have the reached the same conclusion about Rove’s failed attempt to create a “permanent majority”. I knowe some Republicans (such as Christian Todd Whitman) have expressed dismay at the consequences of the move right Bush took after being elected in 2000 at Rove’s behest:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/andrew_sullivan/article1563268.ece
Vilsack’s endorsement is strong…but hardly helpful. Vilsack was polling fifth — IN HIS OWN STATE.
Plus, his once vaunted political operation is terribly fractured.
All too true.
>Dana :
Water is a touchy issue for the left–especially storage versus conservation as a strategy.
I forgot–to make the link work after clicking remove the “%20″ the website inserts into the middle of long web addresses.
Well, CADTS, at least Vilsack’s endorsement illustrates how much loyalty counts for in political relationships.
Hillary doesn’t have to win Iowa, Edwards does. She made some good adjustments in the last month since Carson City.
>CADTS :
Vilsack’s endorsement is strong…but hardly helpful. Vilsack was polling fifth — IN HIS OWN STATE.
Plus, his once vaunted political operation is terribly fractured.
Mar 26, 2007 09:37 AM
It is murky and there is a great deal of covert activity, some of it no doubt not very pretty going on so who knows who provoked who …The key is to watch Rafsanjani’s tough talk…..this is all about Iraq…it is not going the way they would like…while a stable Iraq is in their interest…. they want to have a great deal of influence also …a very keen analysis I saw attributed this act and the tough talk to showing their displeasure of separating an Iraqi settlement and nuclear issues… which they see as a huge bargaining chip….This will be resolved …something similar happened in 2004 to British seaman…the Iranians march them around blindfolded for propaganda purposes and then released them….EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana announced today that he will be talking soon with chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani…this announcement was “praised” U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns….All kinds of stuff is going on to bring closure to this…
The ARAB Summit is the big ME news! there is a report that Israel PM Olmert said today that he “would not hesitate” to be part of a ” regional Arab peace summit”
Arab foreign ministers met in Riyadh, for a pre-Arab Summit meeting …it starts on Wed!!!!!! It is a bit intriguing that Iraqi President Talabani is attending but Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is not attending according to press reports ….
Yeah, I think BB’s point is right on the mark — Vilsack’s endorsement isn’t a huge deal for Hillary, but it’s a painful obstacle for everybody else who’s counting on a strong showing in IA to pull momentum… Considering I like Edwards, Obama, and Richardson all better than Hillary, I am… not pleased.
Dana:
Permanent majority for the Reeps cannot happen…there history simply doesn’t allow for it. You can trace that all the way back to when Teddy Roosevelt and the Republicans of that era held all three levers of government. Historically and politically, they have never been able to reign in the more ultra-conservative wings of their party and it eventually destroys them.
Very good point, CADTS.
>Historically and politically, they have never been able to reign in the more ultra-conservative wings of their party and it eventually destroys them.
Incidentally, NWN hit 26,000 comments over the weekend.
Congratulations on the 26K comments BB…this shows how this is clearly the most engaging and informed blog on the political Web today. It is never boring, has pretty intellectual bloggers, not drawn to one point or the other and always keeps an open mind.
“Bill Bradley :
Hillary doesn’t have to win Iowa, Edwards does. She made some good adjustments in the last month since Carson City.”
Very true. HOWEVER, there is an important point to remember here. I call it the “Howard Dean” effect and it goes like this. Lets say Edwards wins Iowa and Hillary finishes third or fourth. If that happens, the voters (and the media) will jump on that. The message will be that Hillary, with all her name ID and money (Dean had the money, not the name ID), could not break through because of her high personal negatives and perceived disingenousness on key issues.
IF that happens, Hillary now faces a serious challenge of winning in Nevada (this won’t happen, particularly if she does poorly in Iowa) and then continuing that success through to California, Florida and New Hampshire. Now, she may win California but will likely finish third (or worse) in Florida and finish second or third in New Hampshire.
All in all, my thought is that Hillary has the greater burden of winning early because of who she is and the money she has. A second place finish in Iowa, while not fatal, won’t help her with any kind of bounce. If Edwards (or anyone else) wins Iowa, the game is up for Hillary.
And she knows this.
Congrats on blowing by another comments milestone. This is by far and away the best blog on California politics. On any given day NWN has more comments than the rest combined.
The domination of the Democratic and Republican parties by their wingnuts creates an inherent dysfunction – one the Democratic party seems to overcome to maintain its power. It is hard to get Republicans to compromise when there are no tangible benefits for departing from dogma.
Regarding the Middle East – I do not understand how the commanders on the warship Cornwall can let Iranian coastal patrol boats approach and apprehend their boarding crews in Iraq waters. Why didn’t the boarding parties flee in their high speed boats? Why are the Iranian patrol boats still floating? Maybe the Cornwall had French officers…
Hillary should win Nevada and New Hampshire. Iowa is for lefty teachers union types. I’m not sure Edwards will even be in the race that long.
Ann,
Iowa is for pragmatism — remember, Kerry was at single digits and won big. Dean was up by double digits and finished fourth.
Hillary will lose Nevada — she can’t overcome the negatives and the belief by many voters that she can’t win.
Heck, even the Dems I know in the state have serious doubts about her. Edwards isn’t the issue — the issue is Hillary’s electability numbers and her negatives hovering around 50% for the last five years. And as I have said, running for US Senate in NY ain’t the same thing as running for President. The audience and the attitudes are very different among Democrats.
I think Nevada, and I’ve done it succesfully, can be won by any of four candidates. The ones, oddly enough, in my video.
Hillary has to run the table early. If Edwards (or Obama) gets a turn with cue, she might not get another shot.
Actually, I think Hillary can lose a couple early and win the nomination.
Now if Obama wins one before South Carolina, look out.
I agree with CADTs. If the 2004 Iowa Caucus was held a week later Edwards may have very well won. As it was Kerry’s win made him the nominee. There was a cascade effect after that. I’m not saying that Hillary is toast if she loses but everyone is gunning for her and it wouldn’t take much to change her fortunes and an Iowa “Loss” (anything other than first or Second) would be perceived as a serious blow.
Course she’ll have lots of money. I heard she picked up another $10 mil in CA this weekend!
Oh, Richard, really, I feel the room spinning …
Nobody raises that much money.
She just raised a ton more than anybody else.
In fact, I report on the actual numbers.
>richard locicero :
Course she’ll have lots of money. I heard she picked up another $10 mil in CA this weekend!
more intriguing news… Iran news service just announced that 3 Iranian soldiers who were captured on Feb. 28 near the Iran-Pakistan border in Iran have been released…remember nothing happens in a vacuum in ME…
I am off to Mass , it’s a big MARY Day! (feast of Annuciation)..Lebanon is sending 2 delegations to the Arab Summit…I shall say a prayer for Lebanon today! Toodles!
Back at the end of the Kosovo War in 1999 — i.e., way before the lefty blog types got activated by the Florida recount and the righty blog types got activated by 9/11 — a rump battalion of Russian paratroopers, oddly commanded by a lieutenant general rather than a major, dashed into Kosovo. By truck as it happened.
NWN, in an earlier incarnation, was able, thanks to a friend on the Russian general staff, to correctly predict where those paratroopers were actually going.
Straight to Pristina Airport, the only major airport in Kosovo. To seize it, of course, before the NATO troops moved in-country.
This created a conundrum for the mostly British forces landing by helicopter on the airstrips there. Though sometime Democratic presidential candidate Wes Clark was NATO Supreme Commander, NATO forces were under the operational control of a British general, Sir Michael Jackson. (His real name.)
Should they engage the Russian paratroopers already there? Who they actually outnumbered.
Or should they cool it, and let things work out through diplomatic channels?
This Michael Jackson decided against war with Russia, though he caught some hell from Washington — you know, the “peaceniks” in the Clinton Administration — and let a face-saving solution emerge over time.
>Kandy Kid :
Congrats on blowing by another comments milestone. This is by far and away the best blog on California politics. On any given day NWN has more comments than the rest combined.
The domination of the Democratic and Republican parties by their wingnuts creates an inherent dysfunction – one the Democratic party seems to overcome to maintain its power. It is hard to get Republicans to compromise when there are no tangible benefits for departing from dogma.
Regarding the Middle East – I do not understand how the commanders on the warship Cornwall can let Iranian coastal patrol boats approach and apprehend their boarding crews in Iraq waters. Why didn’t the boarding parties flee in their high speed boats? Why are the Iranian patrol boats still floating? Maybe the Cornwall had French officers…
Mar 26, 2007 10:40 AM
Thanks for the thoughts Bill.
So the Cornwall commanders decided not to take the war-starting bait offerred by the Iranians and left it to the diplomats to resolve the situation. I wonder how that decision was communicated to the families of the captured crews?
If I were the skipper of the British frigate, I might well have sent my helo in firing warning shots across the bows of those Iranian gunboats. The Shatt Al Arab is too shallow for the Cornwall itself to operate in.
However, what I suspect happened is that the Iranians converged on the merchant ship while the sailors and marines were doing their onboard inspection. Their intentions were probably not clear till the Brits got back in their boats.
The Brits have centuries of imperial experience. This is hardly the first time that their personnel have been taken.
Angerlides again! lol
I think re-Baathification may be a necessary step toward “Vietnamization,” if one wants sober, experienced technocrats rather than loonies and subversives managing the Sunni side of the equation. Bremer was an idiot to run off the entire bureaucracy and military.
Perhaps PA will tell us next that God will “take him” if he does not meet his fundraising goal.
Are we that lucky? lol
should i ask for my $1500 back?
Ah, I’m laughing, General Cortina.
Let me consult my crystal ball here, which is actually a crystal globe from the Reagan Library …
>Juan Cortina :
should i ask for my $1500 back?
Mar 26, 2007 12:46 PM
We’re non-random today, right? OT, then… Key Gonzales staffer announced intention today to take the Fifth in the Senate hearings, to avoid being set up as the sacrificial lamb, Libby-style. http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8O42F4O1&show_article=1
Absolutely, Wilbur. There is way too much going on for me to comment directly on without running myself into the ground far before the next election.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will attend the Arab Summit… this is big news folks!!!!…
This also means I should keep praying for Lebanon because it will no doubt be on the agenda as well as some private talks about Iraq and Hasmas!
Oh, my, Mr. Angelides.
To anyone who thinks that Gov. Brown is a “flake,” let me suggest a real look at poor Mr. Angelides.
The British seanman will be fine ,,,this is a sideshow and as Mr. Bradley said not the first time there as been a “communication” via “an incident” in the region …if fact, certainly during my adulthood that is usually how the region communicates…but the Saudi’s are moving us into a new phase now…it’s raining in Sacto! Delicious! …I wanted to use my fireplace one for timeat least!
This could get complicated. The regime didn’t have to hold on to these folks.
>Barbara :
The British seanman will be fine ,,,this is a sideshow and as Mr. Bradley said not the first time there as been a “communication” via “an incident” in the region …if fact, certainly during my adulthood that is usually how the region communicates…but the Saudi’s are moving us into a new phase now…it’s raining in Sacto! Delicious! …I wanted to use my fireplace one for timeat least!
Mar 26, 2007 02:00 PM
SF Chronicle re: Edwards campaigning in California:
“Edwards admitted today there is no way he can match the fund-raising prowess of Clinton, who took in an estimated $10 million in a weekend sweep through Los Angeles and the Bay Area.”
so if it’s true that HRC has swept through and raked in $10 million, I guess we are all feeling our increased clout knowing that the deep pocket donors and big money candidates care so much about our state …
Mr. Bradley:This could get complicated
I don’t think it will …this is noot a re-play of the 70′s Hostage crisis …you just have to look at the things announced today …the biggie being Mottaki …there is alot of back channels going on…along with the public huffing and puffing….in saying that …there is TOO much nasty covert stuff going however….that is how it could get complicated…it is not good to upset Rafsajani…we need him to succeed …when we screw around with their borders …overplay…we hurt him and help the extremists…
CARPETBAGGER REPORT says she raised $2.8 mil – not what I originally said but not bad for a weekend. And my point is still valid. Her survival mechanism after Iowa – if she loses – is Really, really deep pockets.
Does anyone care what Angelides thinks or does at this point?
Okay, gang, the SF Chronicle is wrong in reporting Hillary raised $10 million over the weekend.
That is a ridiculous number. Period. Full stop.
Carpetbagger Report, whatevever the frack that is, Richard, is also wrong.
She raised $3.6 million that I know of and had one or two other events that I don’t know about.
Re: Re-Baathification — totally dissolving the army (let’s dump lots of disaffected young men out on the streets… with guns!) and the firing of all gov’t officials who knew what was going on (replicating the heckuva-job-style Bush administration at home?) was one of the worst moves of the early stage of the occupation. I think, though, it’s probably too late for this to work…
Christopher Hitchens’ latest is worth reading. I find him extremely annoying, most of the time, because he’s so supercilious towards those of us who (correctly, dammit!) believed that the case for invasion was being oversold and we could afford to bottle Saddam up with the UN inspections process for 2-4 more years while securing Afghanistan. But I think Hitch is basically right about the moral imperative to, if possible at least secure Iraqi Kurdistan. Even if it pisses of Turkey.
If we had a sane administration that understood diplomacy, we might offer to go to bat for Turkey in its EU negotiations, in exchange for ratcheting down the pressure on the Kurds, and maybe even ceding some autonomy to Turkish Kurdistan… Territorial disputes invariably cost the “occupying” country far more than the land could possibly add to their GDP; friendly pacification works better than force. Spain has figured that out, with Galicia, Catalunia, and the Euskadi homeland…
Like I said, Dean had tons of money, a pretty good ground op and he got crushed.
Hillary has tons of money, name ID, an AMAZING campaign staff…and yet, can’t win.
NO ONE could raise $10M in a weekend. I saw Clinton at an event in San Francisco…she raised maybe $500K total.
At that one event mind you…honestly, she has tapped heavily into Hollywood and Silicon Valley. But those primary dollars are starting to get squeezed a little.
Some reports suggest the Iranians will want the release of their own agents who have been seized in Iraq and Pakistan. But I don’t think the Brits are holding those guys, this Administration doesn’t listen well to allies, and I’m not sure the U.S. wants them released just yet from whatever “creative interviewing” dungeon some may be in. Add in factional infighting and undermining within both he Iraqi and Iranian governments and this could get complicated, indeed.