The capture of 15 British sailors and marines is only the latest and most dramatic
in a series of naval provocations by Iranian forces.
** UK-IRAN CRISIS ESCALATES. British Prime Minister Tony Blair, noting that 15 British sailors and marines seized by special elements of the Iranian naval forces continue to be held in Iranian custoday more than two days after the incident, spoke today for the first time on the crisis and pronounced it “very serious.” What exactly is Iran up to here? It’s not entirely clear, especially not to me on a weekend, but the incident did occur on the eve of Saturday’s UN Security Council vote to impose further sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program, at a meeting at which ultra-hardliner Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was to appear, probably in more conciliatory mode, but did not show, for reasons that are at the moment quite murky.
With Russia moving against the Iranian nuclear program by refusing to supply nuclear fuel for the Bushehr reactor project — the Islamic republic has at least three other nuclear projects going, but none in which nuclear enrichment efforts can be easily construed as being for the purpose of nuclear power rather than nuclear weapons — Iran may be feeling that the nuclear issue and the Iraq issue are being separated, something that does not seem to be in Iran’s interest as it engages the US and the Western powers on settling the Iraq mess. This may be an attempt to gain some leverage, by seizing the Brit personnel and claiming that they were in Iranian territorial waters while they did their work in the Shatt Al Arab inspecting merchant vessels for possible smuggling, a fairly routine task that would be hard to escalate into a serious charge of espionage.
** DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIALS IN NEVADA. All but one of the Democratic presidential candidates were in Nevada Friday and Saturday, participating all on the same stage Saturday in a forum focused on health care issues at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas (UNLV). I’ll have a full report, with a documentary video, on Monday.
John Edwards impressed again with his detail and presentation, and received much sympathy throughout for the plight of his wife Elizabeth, who was in attendance. Barack Obama showed tremendous presence, but the Politics of Hope has its limits. Bill Richardson was fine, but this is not his strongest issue. Hillary Clinton was much better than she was in last month’s forum in Carson City and was the clear favorite of the mostly labor crowd. She was quite free-wheeling and knowing. In fact, she sounded suspiciously like her husband the President. She raised over $2 million last night at a Hollywood fundraiser.
I shot about an hour-and-a-half of footage inside the hall with the candidates and will produce about a 10-minute video showing the highlights and flavor of this second Nevada Democratic presidential forum.
** NEVADA REPUBLICANS MOVING THEIR PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS UP AGAIN, TO JANUARY 19TH. Nevada state Republican leaders have informally decided in a conference call to move their state presidential caucuses up again, this time to the same January 19th date that their Democratic counterparts have. The decision must be taken formally by the state Republican executive board and the party’s state central committee next month, but that is expected. Republican Governor Jim Gibbons is on board with the plan.
This move, assuming it is formally adopted, will make Nevada the second contest in the Republican presidential race, as it is now in the Democratic presidential race. It will also lead to a substantial penalty in delegates to the Republican National Convention from the Silver State, as it is against national party rules, but the numbers aren’t that big to begin with.
** A MURKY NEW CRISIS WITH IRAN’S CAPTURE OF BRITS AND MOVEMENT OF THE PRISONERS TO TEHRAN. With special elements of the Iranian navy seizing 15 British sailors and marines on the eve of the UN Security Council’s vote on further nuclear-related sanctions against Iran, and the subsequent reported movement of the prisoners to Tehran, the crisis with Iran enters a new and murky phase. The Brits had just inspected a merchant vessel suspected of smuggling when they they were surrounded in their two small rigid inflatable boats by Iranian gunboats and captured, charged with violating Iranian territorial waters on a much-disputed maritime border between Iraq and Iran.
There has been a recent string of provocative acts by elements of the Iranian navy, as seen in the video above. This, of course, is the most provocative by far.
** JERRY BROWN CLEAR FRONTRUNNER FOR GOVERNOR IN 2010. To what should be the surprise of approximately no one who regularly reads NWN, Jerry Brown has a big lead among candidates in a possible Democratic field for governor of California in 2010. Privately, he says he doesn’t plan to run. His governorship predates the state’s term limit law. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who Brown somewhat briefly considered running against in the 2003 recall campaign, is termed out of office after 2010 and the Republicans have no clear potential winner.
** A GLITCH IN THE PROGRAM. I encountered a not-so-slight problem at my ritzy resort hotel in Las Vegas very late Friday night/very early Saturday morning. I noticed that the in-room Internet service didn’t work. (No, I hadn’t tried it when I checked in. I can monitor things via blackberry, to the extent I’m inclined to do so.) It would have been a huge problem had it been a weekday, but on weekends, traffic on web sites across the Internet is way down. That is especially true of Saturdays. It begins to pick up again later on Sunday.
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Alright, the Republicans go for it in Nevada, too. Both parties have to cater to you guys out West now.
I don’t think it’s been reported that Jerry Brown considered running in the recall.
Great news about Jerry. I can see the campaign signs now…fellow geriatrics for Jerry!
Now, back to my book. Hope to have it finished before I leave for my first bird hunting trip of the year.
I don’t know if it’s been mentioned before.
>Ann :
I don’t think it’s been reported that Jerry Brown considered running in the recall.
Mar 25, 2007 09:31 AM
Solon, before you get too excited, he has no plan to run. You know what that means.
It means the headquarters has already been selected…the order for the phones called in…and the first batch of commercials, the ones being made while he still has some hair, are in production. That’s what it means!!!
Now, back to this wonderful read!!!!
Larry, still can figure out where this chap is from. But sure hope it writes a lot more!!!!
That’s very funny!
Jerry Brown is a bigger story than Iran or the Presidential race?
Ask Jerry.
In 1974 Jerry won the Democratic Primary for Gov. with just 36% of the vote. A lot of voters thought he was his Dad. And in 2010, at 73, he will be still 6 years younger than Juan Peron was when he was elected for his third term as President of Argentina after only 18 years of exile.
Is Jerry Brown on the bounce? The Brits sure weren’t.
Juan Peron?
>Sullihan :
In 1974 Jerry won the Democratic Primary for Gov. with just 36% of the vote. A lot of voters thought he was his Dad. And in 2010, at 73, he will be still 6 years younger than Juan Peron was when he was elected for his third term as President of Argentina after only 18 years of exile.
Mar 25, 2007 10:37 AM
maybe Jerry Brown is waiting to get the endorsement of Maria Shriver, and the assurances she won’t run, before he says anything…
Interesting story today, leading with “American forces in Iraq now hold some 300 prisoners tied to Iran’s intelligence agencies, Pajamas Media learned from both diplomatic and military sources.”
I liked Patraeus’ reply to the crats who wanted to “facilitate discussions”…
Maria, who would lose, already said she isn’t running for Governor.
The Iranian seizure of the british sailors is a sign of weakness disguised as strength, as all desperate military moves are.
Larry,
Finished the book late this morning. Marvelous read. Presents a picture of a very stark society.
Wish I had the knoweledge base to truly make a guess at where the author is from. But, I don’t. And have too much respect for the recommendation to make a guess without some sort of knowledge to back it up. Sorry.
However, please keep making recommendations. If this is any example of your taste in books, I can only repeat Oliver Twist’s famous words, “More!”…
And to offer one up to you: “Manhunt” by James Swanson. Story of the 12 day search for John Wilkes Booth. It’s history that reads like a mystery novel.
That’s quite a high number of Iranian-related prisoners, Hap, an interesting term in itself.
This may, however, be directly related to the Iranian seizure of Brits.
I’ll get to that a little later.
Maybe Iran wants to see which middleweight power can kick its heinie first, Britain or Israel. lol
I have another wacky item on how fracked up things are in Iraq, but that will wait for tomorrow.
Bradley,
You’re just a tease!
Hardly. I am carving back a life in yet another endless campaign, and weekend traffic across the Internet is low.
On the other hand, the new Nevada Democratic Presidential forum video is done.
Mr. Bradley,
The old guy was only joshing you. In reality, a world I seldom play in, me thinks that you work far too hard and produce a great deal for which many of us are quite grateful.
Shucks, ever let us know when you’re going to be there and I’d be more than happy to provide you with a cup of java at Old Soul. And that’s the best coffee this old city has to offer.
So, from one old-timer to another, rest and relax on this Sunday evening. You’ve earned the downtime!
Where is Barbara, isn’t it all good in the “ME?”
If Iranians want to play games, let them reap the whirlwind. Leave no man or woman behind.
Incidentally, in case NWN readers/viewers have not yet gathered, there are quite a few presidential candidates I can vote for in 2008, in both major parties.
… And thank you, Solon, for your advice, except I am already working on taking that advice.
Ya know, a behind the scenes glimpse, folks.
This is why cyberjournalism is still such a fracking pain in the ass.
I uploaded the new video to YouTube over two hours ago.
The image still isn’t there.
No wonder the corporate journos stopped trying.
They get paid no matter what.
For the time being.
Incidentally, I see that one of my conservative PJM colleagues on another continent has, per usual, come up with spin about how the media is responsible for defeat in insurrectionary wars.
In this case, a revisionist view of France’s defeat in Algeria nearly a half-century ago, ample time for the historically ignorant to say “Huh, and Huzzah.”
Let me be clear, as someone who has personally followed warfare from, let us say, a more personal point of view, blaming the media for defeat is the last resort of losers.
That is true in politcs, and that is true in war.
PJM has thoughtfully removed the comments section on such items — hence no more of my acidic comments on such garbage — at the same time it has extended my contract into the long-term
Expect more of my exposes on gross nonsense, such as Michael Ledeen’s execrable “NEWS BREAK” about the purported death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Which, as I told him and others within a few hours of the report, was errant and grotesque nonsense casting the most extreme doubt on every Iran-related report from that quarter.
Was that Austin Bay?
Mr. Bradley has scribed:
“at the same time it has extended my contract into the long-term” and tucked it in a manner to sneak it by us.
Can’t sneak that weak stuff by the Old Solon!
Congrats…and perhaps it is you who should be buying me the coffee at Old Soul as you are employed and I am unemployable!
Nope, he is an American, hence his US military rank.
>Hap Hazard :
Was that Austin Bay?
Mar 25, 2007 09:03 PM
It is someone, as I said, who is on another continent, and now seems to be extolling an attorney who defended the Exxon Valdez stuff.
Ah, yes, global far-rightists.
May someone buy them a fracking clue.
(Some of us worked to defend their home country.)
As you know, I have the same exceptionally high regard for global far-leftists.
I’m pretty sure Brown and Villaraigosa have the same campaign manager. I wonder where he goes from here.
Really, General Cortina!
I had no idea that Jerry Brown was Antonio Villaraigosa’s campaign manager …
How is Villaraigoa going post his honeymoon?
Some might hope in video…others of us don’t care.
Nice to be so old-fashioned, Solon.
Video is the current differentiator on the Net, technologically.
Nobody gives a frack about the poor still photos from certain very large, loss-leading daily newspapers.
Takes hours to do, much more time than writing for a good writer, then YouTube misplaces it.
Does not Jerry Brown actually want to be President? And does not the early Nevada caucus and early California primary uniquely advantage him more than any other?
When will your Flash Report boys explain their igorance?
When does Gonzales finally drop it?
Where is our NWN girl Barbaras, so optimistic about everything in the least optimistic part of the world.
I think the US AG is on tenterhooks now. Were he not the president’s old friend and ex-Texas Supreme Court justice, he would probably already be gone.
maybe it’s campaign consultant and not manager.
Does Parke Skelton work for Jerry Brown?
Does Ace Smith work for Antonio Villaraigosa?
I know that Anne Gust Brown doesn’t work for Antonio.
Ace works for Villaraigosa.
I wonder how many crack political operatives have worked with Jerry Brown. There was that guy who was governor of California …
This reminds me that I have not run the behind the scenes war room video of the Schwarzenegger and Brown campaigns.
Arnold was in his war room, you know, several times.
Jerry was in the middle of his war room.
If I had to lay money on the GOP ’10 nominee, I’d go with Poizner. Certainly he’s the only guy on the scene right now who’d stand a chance of winning, from their side…
And on my own side, much as I like Jerry, I’d rather see Westly run again. Though he could face another bruising primary, if he has to duke it out with Villaraigosa or one of the several other strong candidates we could field.
Re: contract renewal and righty-loons on Algeria: Perhaps PJM is slightly masochistic?
My personal opinion, for what it’s worth, is that Jerry Brown doesn’t want to be governor again.
But if he does, it will be very difficult for anyone to beat him in the primary. Westly and Angelides both had polls showing Brown would blow them both away if he ran.
I’m impressed by Steve Poizner. I shot 25 minutes of video of him last week. I don’t think he’s ready to run for governor yet, but he is the only Republican on the scene who could run a credible race for the office.