Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has opened a big lead in national polling
for the Republican presidential nomination.
** IRAN MAKES MORE DIPLOMATIC MOVES, EYING THE “WOUNDED TIGER.” In addition to the forthcoming multilateral talks with the US on stabilizing the Iraq crisis — they say they are deciding whether to participate, but you know they’ll be there — the Iranians are making a number of other moves. For one, Iran will reopen a number of embassies in Latin America. Which could also be a provocative move, providing operating facilities for the skilled Iranian intelligence service. Firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, under fire from multiple quarters at home on multiple fronts, will go to Saudi Arabia to discuss how the Shia power of Iran can work with the Sunni power of the Saudis, rather than be at crosspurposes, as they frequently are now.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, decidedly undead, has just criticized Ahmadinejad for being overly provocative, joining the resurgent former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the big winner in the recent elections for the religious oversight body called the national Assembly of Experts. Said Rafsanjani, a pragmatic conservative cleric who has frequently worked with Americans: “The Americans brought their troops with high spending to Iraq and Afghanistan. The only thing they did was to remove Iran’s enemies, Saddam Hussein and the Taliban. They are like a wounded tiger and we must not ignore this.”
** NUNEZ TO TESTIFY BEFORE U.S. SENATE ON CLIMATE CHANGE. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, who authored California’s landmark climate change bill last year with former LA Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, testifies tomorrow morning on the plan before the U.S. Senate Committee on the Environment and Public Works, now chaired by California’s Senator Barbara Boxer. He’ll discuss the hybrid regulatory/market-oriented approach being developed to implement the rollback of greenhouse gas emissions in the world’s fifth largest economy. Nunez has recently spoken about the bill at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he got quite a lot of attention, especially in the absence of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, then unable to fly long distances due to his skiing mishap, as well as the National Conference of State Legislatures.
** HILLARY AND OBAMA TO GO HEAD TO HEAD SUNDAY IN SELMA, ALABAMA. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will speak simultaneously in black churches just a half block apart on this coming Sunday, the 42nd anniversary of the bloody and pivotal civil rights march in Selma, Alabama. Then they will join civil rights veterans and others for a commemorative march over Edmund Pettus Bridge. Hillary Clinton is the Democratic presidential frontrunner, and the Clinton Administration was very popular with African Americans. But the upstart Obama, despite his exotic background — son of a Kenyan Muslim father and a white woman, raised in Indonesia and Hawaii — that is outside the mainstream of the African American experience, is coming on fast. Clinton leads in the Southern primaries, but the black vote is very big, as much as 50% in the Alabama primary, which Jesse Jackson won in 1988.
** SAN FRANCISCO’S “BLOOD ALLEY” APPROACH TO GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE TO GET BIG BANG BONDS UPGRADE. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom announced that the state transportation commission has today adjusted its position on the allocation of the big infrastructure bonds package passed by California voters last November, and will provide major funding to upgrade the picturesque yet quite antiquated approach to the Golden Gate Bridge. Assemblyman Mark Leno also put out a statement, saying that he had been assured yesterday by the director of the state transportation department that the matter would be taken care of. In that vein, as it were, NWN was also assured yesterday by an advisor to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger that, at least in future years, your host will be less likely to die while driving toward the Golden Gate. Such a relief.
Newsom outlined the issue in his statement: Today the California Transportation Committee voted to approve in $405 million in SHOPP funds to rebuild Doyle Drive. The span – which is close to 70 years old – has never been upgraded to cope with increased traffic, comply with modern traffic safety standards, or deal with seismic vulnerabilities. Doyle Drive is considered to have the highest level of seismic vulnerability of any major bridge approach in the state.
Doyle Drive is also the only major bridge that has an approach with no median barrier to keep cars from getting into head-on collisions. Simulation models show that if Doyle Drive were to be shut down due to earthquake damage, traffic would be brought to a crawl on all other major Bay Area bridges and bridge approaches.
** MARKETS BEGIN TO STABILIZE. Shanghai, which started the global flu epidemic on stock markets, gained some earlier, leading to a mild recovery on the New York stock exchange today.
** REPUBLICANS WANT TO MOVE UP NEVADA PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS. With the Bush White House noting the wave of attention accorded last week’s Nevada Democratic presidential forum in Carson City, Nevada Republicans are now looking to move up their caucus, too. Just not as soon as the Democrats, who will hold the second-in-the-nation contest next January 19th.
** MCCAIN BEEFS UP FINANCIALLY. John McCain, trailing in private polls for the California Republican presidential primary behind Rudy Giuliani, announced a roster of 70 Californians on his national and state financial committees. Five are national finance co-chairs: Former Ambassador to Spain George Argyros, a billionaire real estate figure indicted a few years ago in Orange County, Donald Bren, longtime California billionaire and Republican powerhouse controlling the Orange County-based Irvine Company, John Chambers, head of Silicon Valley power Cisco Systems, Jerry Perenchio, the billionaire media mogul who controlled Univision, and Gary Shansby, an investment manager who built the consumers goods powerhouse Shaklee Corp. Other familiar names on the list include former California Secretary of State Bill Jones, former Governor Deukmejian chief of staff Steve Merksamer, and Marty Wilson, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s fundraising overseer.
** CLINTON AND EDWARDS TO CALIFORNIA. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards will bring their presidential campaigns to California later this week.
** NEVADA DEMOCRATS NOT CAVING TO “NETROOTS.” It looks like that ballyhooed campaign by MoveOn.org and Daily Kos to force the Nevada Democratic Party to drop Fox News as it broadcast partner for the August Democratic presidential debate in Reno is not working.
** U.S. TO TALK WITH IRAN AND SYRIA ON IRAQ CRISIS.The US will formally engage in multilateral talks on settling the Iraq crisis in March and April with a number of nations in the Middle East, including two previously formally barred from talks with the US, Iran and Syria. Engagement with Iran and Syria on Iraq was one of the key recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, much excoriated by the right and officially shunned by the Bush Administration, although back channel contacts have been underway throughout, as reported on NWN. Secretary of State Condi Rice acknowledged the obvious, yesterday telling senators: “This is one of the key findings, of course, of the Iraq Study Group, and it is an important dimension that many in the Congress have brought to our attention. We’ve listened, and I want you to know that.”
** CLINTON’S LEAD OVER OBAMA DIMINISHES, GIULIANI’S LEAD OVER MCCAIN GROWS. The new ABC/Washington Post poll shows some major early developments in the presidential race. This new poll shows that Rudy Giuliani’s 7-point lead over John McCain, 34% to 27%, has tripled, and the former New York mayor now leads the Arizona senator by a better than 2 to 1 ratio, 44% to 21%. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Barack Obama has diminished to 12 points, due to a surge of support for Obama among African American Democrats. Clinton led last month, 41% to 17%. Now her lead over Obama is 36% to 24%. Al Gore, who says he is not running, has 14%, and John Edwards is at 13%. With Gore out of the mix, Clinton gains the most, leading Obama 43% to 27%, with Edwards at 14%.
On the Democratic side, Obama has been drawing unusually large crowds, including 20,000 people in Austin, Texas last Friday afternoon in the rain. He leads Clinton on the measure of who is most inspirational. She, however, leads on the question of who is most experienced, most electable, the strongest leader, closest to the respondent on issues, and identifying most with the respondent. Most Democrats think Clinton’s vote for the Iraq War was appropriate at the time. Only about 12% of Democratic primary voters think she should apologize, a constant refrain from partisan bloggers.
The sharpest change in the race is on the Republican side, where Giuliani has expanded tremendously and McCain has wilted. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has not said he’s running, is at 15% in the poll, with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, also wilting, at 4%. With Ginrich removed from the mix, Giuliani’s lead over McCain grows to a whopping 53% to 23%.
Giuliani is seen as the clear leader among Republicans as the strongest leader, most inspiring, and most electable. McCain has a slight edge as most experienced. McCain, who has been getting the brunt of the flak nationally for his role as leading supporter of the Iraq surge outside the White House, is hurt in the poll by his age, just as Romney is hurt by his religion, Mormonism.
** BILL RICHARDSON SAYS NO NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING. Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, the Democratic presidential candidate and former ambassador to the United Nations and US energy secretary, yesterday renewed the call for a positive campaign pledge he issued last week at the Nevada presidential forum in Carson City.
** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Prices are stable.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are in the $59 to $61 per barrel range, off of highs for the year to date on yesterday’s global stock market tumble, amidst some concern that a recession may be in the offing.
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McCain looks like a loser. Someone had better get after Giuliani or he can run away with the White House.
Does mcCain even have much of a campaign? I don’t see it.
Giuliani against Hillary? The battle of the nice people?
Oh, they’re very nice people, of course.
The contests are just beginnning.
Rudy bridges the “libertarian” and “authoritarian” divide in the GOP.
“Someone had better get after Giuliani or he can run away with the White House”
Not to worry. Now that he is a frontrunner of sorts, the major media folks will soon be on the task
I don’t see McCain coming back unless Giuliani collapses.
Mccain has been very confusing and a disappointment to me…One of his greatest strengths (aside from his maverick appeal) is his military background…but I never understood why once he got Gen Abizaid in that Senate committee last fall to go on record that we needed more troops from day one …that he did not just run around and say “I told you so”…and join everyone else in questioning the wisdom of Admin’s surge…especially when once again it is clearly the same problem not enough troops to have impact…instead he has aped Joe Lieberman on everything he utters about the ME…Now that Bush admin has agreed to negotiations with Iran …it puts him somewhat in a bind as he and Lieberman have been some of the most strident voices against negotiations with Iran…I don’t understand his behavior …I mean many lay observers could see that backchannels were at work here and that this was where we were going as finally Bush was convinced there is no getting out of Iraq without dealing with Iran…
In any event, I do not see his military background which normally would be a plus with me in regard to a candidate as helping him in his assessments of the ME …it appears may be even clouding it at this point.
Several good vibrations from Iran yesterday! …Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took political/governmental steps that appear to show that he is promoting Rafsanjani, the leader of a pragmatic conservative faction, to succeed him….Rafsanjani issued a statement “warning his country not to provoke the United States.” calling us a “wounded tiger”!!!!
Ahhh Negotiations!!!…a lot could still go wrong …but this is GOOD Start!
Don’t worry Jonas, as in bike racing, the peloton of other candidates and the media will pull Rudy back as they approach the finish line.
other candidates and the media will pull Rudy back as they approach the finish line
This is also true on the Hillary side of the aisle.
Now that it appears that California will be joined by Illinois, Florida and some other big states I don’t know in a February primary, it seems to me that the presidential primary process will have an open primary effect, in that, to be able to raise enough money to stay on the air in so many places, candidates must appeal to broad centrist base of their respective parties. If true, it will be a great thing for the process. Seems to be happening already
Richardson just announced he’s running for VP.
Pull Giuliani back to who, Romney? That guy is not going anywhere.
Why would the Democrats cave to the nutroots pests? They would look like wimps.
From the reports I have seen, it seems states representing about one half of the population will have primaries or caucuses by February 5th.
That’;s a roster of those talking about it. They won’t all do it.
My prediction futures market bets will be Clinton-Obama as the dem ticket and Guliani-Romney as the reep ticket.
I think Rudy will look West or South to balance the ticket. Hillary will look to Bill from New Mexico or Wesley Clark. (Unless polling shows the new Gov or new Sen from Ohio can carry that state for her or Sen Nelson from Fla. can carry that state).
“Hillary will look to Bill from New Mexico or Wesley Clark. ”
Hillary HAS to pick a combat veteran for VP or she gets crushed in the General. “Pick a general to win the General.” would be good mantra for a lot of dem candidates.
Jim Webb is the man for Hillary. Bill will love it.
Doesn’t a no-negative campaiging pledge mean you are going to be the first one to go negative?
Also, has any poll inculded the Stewart-Colbert ticket?
And, did anyone see the second installment of the “Half-Hour Newshour” on FOX? I didn’t, I was watching the Amazing Race.
Gospodin Bierko, those folks are for Obama!
>Doesn’t a no-negative campaiging pledge mean you are going to be the first one to go negative?
Thankfully, no.
>And, did anyone see the second installment of the “Half-Hour Newshour” on FOX? I didn’t, I was watching the Amazing Race.
It wouldn’t be a bad idea to have a vet on the ticket.
This country is not ready for a veterinarian as VP.
Oh, man, I just laughed aloud!
Rudy has the intelligence and strength to be a great wartime President.
Haven’t some of those McCain money names been announced before?
Some of the McCain finance names, such as Donald Bren, have already been noted here.
Who should get more credit, you or the Republicans’ favorite crime friendly legislator? lol
NOTA.
FYI, SHOPP is the State Highway Operation and Protection Program, which maintains the state highway system which is woefully underfunded with a backlog:
http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/transprog/shopp.htm
Changing topic, my take on the new poll numbers for McCain is his pandering to the far right and championing of the surge has weakened the support of his centrist base while gaining him little.
The YAFfer yappers at Flush Report are moaning and groaning about Schwarzeneger not being right wingnut. Don’t they ever bore themselves?
They’re reannouncing the fundraising names to make it look like momentum for McCain who is tumbling in the polls.
Thanks, Dana, I don’t know public officials, and they do this all the time, toss around arcane acronyms as though even well-informed people are supposed to know what they are.
Campaigns reannounce things all the time. That said, I’m sure they’re not unmindful in Camp McCain of the changing situation.
On Iran:
There is also a report that Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal who has been in Moscow with Russian FM Lavrov is off to IRAN now. Russia (a Quartet member)is Hamas’s biggest supporter to lifting the international economic sanctions on Hamas/Palestinian National Authority. Yesterday, while Meshaal was in Russia, I saw a report that Hamas would release Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in return for Palestinian prisoners… I hope this trip to Teheran by Meshaal means Shalit is going to be released soon!
Has McCain really raised much money? I saw an article saying he was low on money.
The less than successful conclusion of last year’s Hezbollah war for Israel means the captured soldiers are still in play.
Last report I believe McCain had raised less than $2 million but I’m not looking at it now.
McCain and Guiliani are bald. When did we elect a bald President?
I think it is going to happen… and that it has more to do with current crosscuts (Saudi’s Mecca brokered deal between Abbas/Meshaal, Russia’s new power-broker status both in ME and in the Quartet, and Iran’s post Iraq war arrival as a major regional powerplayer, and US agreement to talk) than last summer’s Hezbollah/Israel war…In any event, I like to see this kid home with his parents…
Well off topic as usual, noted historian Arthur Schlesinger has passed away at the age of 89.
For those interested, here’s the link to the NY Times obit:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/01/washington/01schlesinger.html?hp=&pagewanted=print
The Iranians have run circles around Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney. It’s quite embarrassing.
I’m afraid that Mr. McCain’s time has passed.
When did we elect a bald President?
Eisenhower… when news anchors smoked on tv and everyone drank scotch. Am I right old-timers?
Mr. or Ms. Anonymous,
Yes, Ike was like a bowling ball. However, he certainly wasn’t the first one who was challenged in that regard. Ever seen a picture of Martin Van Buren?
Baldness does not seem to be a factor is now unattractive engravers can make presidents look:
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/$1coin/index.cfm
We’re going to elect a bald guy in the media age?
Athlon, those guys on the coins all look pretty dreadful, except for Jefferson.
Hemlock:The Iranians have run circles around Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney. It’s quite embarrassing
They are very cunning and sophisticated. Religous fundamentalism does not always negate such qualities…this is a mistake the US has made for over 20 years with dealing with the Mullahs. Moreover, they understand their neighborhood. Among the neo-cons…there was not one Arabist crafting strategy for this war or its immediate aftermath…
In regard to the Iran/embassies report, I can only think how this in particular must have Elliot Abrams in orbit! It is of course trouble down the line. But there is BIG trouble and LITTLE trouble and that which is in between…I think they would be, in fact they are in S America now and would be ther ewith or without embassies. The day is over for ignoring Iran or just dealing with them via threats. They are not just moving into a new position of power in ME, but S. America or their next stop is Africa…we have to talk to them, deal with them and maybe the next ADMIN will be smarter and even find a way to use them to annoy Russia as much as Russia is now using them to annoy us…
Hamas has this kid, and Hezbollah has the other 2 Israeli soldiers…I think ther eis more hope for this kid because Hammas really needs the West right now to advance politically which it is showing signs that what it wants to do…Hezbollah is busy stockpiling weapons fora potential round 3 with Israel and making the Gov of Leb miserable…I do not see much hope for the 2 Israeli in Lebanon unless something potent happens in March regional talks …However, all Iran ha sto do is say make the exchange and all 3 could be freed..
Markets are very intersting this morning!