As the sound and fury on the Republican right against Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s popular post-partisan agenda continues, the former action superstar conferred with state Senate Republicans. That won’t stop some on the right, who fulminate now about Schwarzenegger’s “socialistic” ways.
Schwarzenegger may be in post-partisan mode, but that doesn’t mean that he’s looking at his Republican Party in the rear view mirror. The freshly re-elected and inaugurated governor went last night to the home of state Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman for a dinner meeting with the California Senate Republican Caucus.
The move came after an afternoon visit to Fresno, where Schwarzenegger inspected citrus crop damage from the sudden cold snap that enveloped the state. Schwarzenegger has been getting out more as his leg, badly broken in a pre-Christmas skiing mishap, heals. But the injury has clearly limited his ability to operate in the high energy manner to which he is accustomed, and greatly limited his inaugural and post-inaugural activities.
Today he gives the annual January address by a California governor to the Sacramento Press Club, which should help deal with some of the pent up press demand for interactive access to him. (Also known as “questions and answers.”) Instead of a press offensive around the Inaugural, the State of the State address, the new health care proposal, and the state budget proposal, Schwarzenegger has been largely closeted away from the press corps, making for awkward situations all around.
Schwarzenegger got good coverage of his inaugural and of his subsequent proposals because the message was strong. But he needs to be more accessible, while working around the constraints of his injury.
Last night, he was accessible to state Senate Republicans. The Republican Senate leader, Dick Ackerman, barely held off, by one vote, a challenge to his leadership by Palm Springs area Senator Jim Battin. Fortunately for Ackerman, Battin had a higher allegiance to Indian casino tribes (he’s a paid consultant for them and would not help against them during the 2003 recall campaign when they heavily backed Democrats), which would have become a serious embarrassment for Republicans had he become the leader.
While Ackerman was a key figure in the bipartisan successes last year, and enjoys a good working relationship with Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, he will probably have to take a tougher line this year.
Legislative Republicans have a serious problem. The issues that conservative activists inveigh against are mostly very popular with voters, including actual Republican voters. Although clear in the polls, this fact is somewhat obscured by the gerrymandered districts that they represent, which bunch together concentrations of the most hyperpartisan voters in both the Republican and Democratic parties. Nevertheless, it is only somewhat obscured.
Schwarzenegger has a serious problem in that his policies, while widely popular, still require at least some Republican votes in the Legislature on some occasions. Obstructionism is seldom a particularly good approach for the long term — just ask Newt Gingrich — but a blocking function can still block.
Both sides need to come to a meeting of the minds.
** ARNOLD CONFERS WITH STATE SENATE REPUBLICANS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger may be in post-partisan mode, but that doesn’t mean that he’s looking at his Republican Party in the rear view mirror. The freshly re-elected and inaugurated governor goes tonight to the home of state Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman for a dinner meeting with the California Senate Republican Caucus.
** JAMES WEBB WILL DELIVER DEMOCRATIC RESPONSE TO THE STATE OF THE UNION. New Virginia Senator and former U.S. Navy Secretary James Webb, the acclaimed novelist who was one of the most highly decorated Marine Corps officers of the Vietnam War, will deliver the formal Democratic response to President George W. Bush‘s State of the Union address on January 23rd. Webb’s son is a Marine in Iraq. Here is what Webb, an assistant secretary of defense in the Reagan Administration, has to say about Bush’s new Iraq surge strategy: “I don’t particularly see it as a new strategy. I don’t see it as strategic at all.”
** OBAMA AND HILLARY ANNOUNCING.Barack Obama today announced a presidential exploratory committee. A formal announcement is scheduled for February 10th in Chicago. Hillary Clinton will announce her exploratory committee later this week. All of this is expected, of course.
** HILLARY AND EDWARDS SKIRMISHING. Further clarifying his standing as a top tier Democratic presidential contender, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton engaged in a skirmish over the weekend over Iraq. Edwards struck first, pointedly saying at a Martin Luther King celebration in New York that silence is not leadership. “Silence is betrayal, and I believe it is a betrayal not to speak out against the escalation of the war in Iraq,”declared Edwards, without referring directly to Clinton. She quickly struck back, having a spokesman rip Edwards for having “bragged about running a positive campaign in 2004,” and now he’s attacking Democrats who oppose the Bush Iraq policy.
** WARREN AND ARNOLD AT THE GOLDEN GLOBES. Some amusing and pointed political byplay at last night’s Golden Globe Awards at the Beverly Hilton. Warren Beatty, an old friend turned sometime antagonist of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger — he helped lead the successful charge against Schwarzenegger’s 2005 special election initiative agenda — had a pointed quip about the former action superstar during his speech accepting the Cecil B. DeMille Award for career achievement in filmmaking. Noting his hyperactive peers, Clint Eastwood, Dustin Hoffman, and Jack Nicholson, before him, Beatty mock bemoaned their much greater cinematic output of late while he has played the world’s unlikeliest Mr. Mom, wondering why they couldn’t take his advice and do less. “I don’t know why they can’t just do what I ask them to do. I asked Arnold to become a Democrat and he did what I said.”
For his part, Schwarzenegger closed the show by presenting the best dramatic picture award, won in somewhat unlikely fashion by Babel. When he gave the trophy to the film’s Mexican director, Alejandro Gonzalez Irritu, the director quipped: “I swear I have my papers in order, Governor.”
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are down around $51 per barrel. Prices have sagged on continued warmer than normal weather around much of the US, and the statement of the Saudi oil minister that his government won’t pursue another OPEC production cut. The truth is that OPEC members announce production agreements, then undercut one another in the marketplace.
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and national labor leaders announce Nevada
presidential debate and candidate forum schedule in Las Vegas.
The snow on the famed Las Vegas Strip the day before seemed only a little less unlikely than the announcement of three presidential debates in Nevada that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and national labor leaders made over the weekend. Next year’s second-in-the-nation Nevada presidential caucuses and the Democratic national convention in Denver are the result of a new Democratic strategy to win the West.
“I’ve watched with apprehension over the years how we choose our presidential candidate,” says U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. “New Hampshire and Iowa are great states, but Nevada is a state that will represent the rest of our country,” he says, citing its greater diversity, range of issues, and labor representation.
With home state fave Reid presiding, Nevada Democrats and some of the most powerful labor leaders in the nation Saturday at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas (UNLV) announced the formation of a state and nationally-based commission to oversee the organization and promotion of the Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucuses. The Nevada caucuses, the second-in-the-nation contest for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, take place on January 19th, 2008. Nevada will follow the Iowa caucuses and precede the New Hampshire primary.
Three of the top labor leaders in the country, Linda Chavez-Thompson, Anna Burger, and Jerry McEntee, flew west for the Martin Luther King Day weekend, to announce their organizations’ staunch backing for the Nevada contest. Chavez-Thompson and Burger represent the two national labor federations. Chavez Thompson is executive vice president of the national AFL-CIO, while Burger is chair of Change To Win. McEntee, for his part, is the longtime president of the powerful AFSCME (American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees). McEntee and AFSCME were the first national labor backers of Bill Clinton when he sought the presidency in 1992.
This, along with Reid’s influence, will help to ensure candidates show at key events scheduled for the Nevada contest. Some on the East Coast, used to the old Iowa/New Hampshire pattern, would like to downgrade Nevada. This seems unlikely to happen now, given the strong statements seen in the NWN video above.
There are three presidential debates and two candidate forums now scheduled around the Nevada caucuses. Next month, on February 21st, there will be an issues forum in Carson City, the capital city, in Northern Nevada. On March 24th, there will be an issues forum on health care in Las Vegas. Both events will be sponsored by big unions, a stick to ensure that Democratic presidential candidates show up.
In mid-August, the first Nevada presidential debate will take place, in Reno. On November 2nd, there will be a second debate, in Las Vegas. Finally on January 15th of 2008, just after Iowa and four days before the Nevada caucuses, there will be a third debate in Las Vegas. It will be sponsored by civil rights organizations, taking place on Martin Luther King Day.
First, Nevada was moved to the head of the pack in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Then Denver was selected as the site for the 2008 Democratic National Convention. Next, California may move its primary to early February, as there are signs of some increased support for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s proposal to do so.
The net effect is that the Democrats will have a major new component to the struggle for national political power, a very active Western strategy. And in particular, since Democrats have already successfully implemented a West Coast strategy, a very active Mountain West strategy.
Underlying much of this is the strategizing of former Senator and one-time presidential frontrunner Gary Hart. The runner-up for the 1984 Democratic presidential nomination, who as co-chairman of the U.S. Commission on National Security predicted major terrorist attacks within America months before 9/11, has been pushing his party to pursue a Western strategy for some 30 years. A strategy paper the Coloradan prepared in 2005 was quite influential in Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean’s decision to select Denver rather than New York for the 2008 convention, despite Denver having problems with labor unions and not nearly the amenities of New York.
Hart’s view for many years has been that Democrats should switch their political focus from regaining the South to winning the West. The South is more focused on race and culture, in this view, the West more resource management, energy and the environment, and opportunity, the South on “values,” which plays into Republican hands on religiosity, the West on “principles,” which does not, the South on older industries, the West on new industries. The South, he thinks, will only go Democratic again with a major economic downturn whereas Democrats can rise with the growing success of the West.
Hart thinks that focusing on the West will force the party to hone its national security thinking. “The West is keenly focused on national security issues, having been the base for much of the nation’s Cold War military structure and defense contract foundation,” notes Hart. “Democrats are not seen as having a coherent, consistent, thoughtful, and resilient outlook on America’s role in the twenty-first century world or policies to make the nation secure during a turbulent period of globalization, information revolution, state failure, and changing character of warfare.”
The shift west is key. Democrats have become increasingly competitive in the West, not just in California and the West Coast, moving into striking distance in most of the Mountain West. Nevada had competition for the second-in-the-nation Western slot from Arizona and, earlier on, Colorado. In the end, Nevada got the nod, in large measure because it is heavily Latino and has a major labor presence. And because Nevada has the third highest per capita population of veterans in the country. One in six Nevadans has served in the military, making it a good place to develop national security themes.
Arizona had the additional burdens of being substantially bigger and thus more expensive to campaign in and of being the home to Senator John McCain. If McCain is the Republican presidential nominee, that would essentially remove the possibility of the Democratic nominee carrying the state in the general election. Whereas Nevada — which for many years was part of “Reagan Country” — went for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. And John Kerry nearly beat George W. Bush there in 2004, losing by little more than two percent.
Nevada, one of the fastest-growing states in the country, had 2.4 million people in 2005, giving it the characteristic of a dynamic, larger place yet the scale that allows retail politicking.
Like most of the West, Nevada is a high growth/environmentalist state. It wants to grow, and it wants to conserve.
Nevada moving into the lead group in presidential nomination politics means that Western issues of development, water, energy, the environment, and immigration will move to the fore. And labor is happy because Nevada, contrary to its old image as an anti-labor haven, is one of the most unionized states in the country. Nearly a quarter of the state’s population is Latino, and roughly a quarter of its voters are in union households.
Old New West friend Warren Beatty (that’s old in terms of association, not chronological age, naturally) receives the Cecil B. DeMille Award for career achievement from the Golden Globes tonight. This is a montage from a little movie called Shampoo. Rated R.
** HAPPY MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY!
** BEATTY’S DEMILLE. Actor/writer/director/producer Warren Beatty — 15 career Academy Award nominations in all four categories, including the Best Director Oscar for the classic tale of passionate yet wrong-headed idealism, Reds — receives the Cecil B. DeMille Award for career achievement in filmmaking at tonight’s Golden Globe Awards at the Beverly Hilton. (He already has the Irving Thalberg Award from the Motion Picture Academy, the Oscar for career achievement in filmmaking, which his son Ben calls “the big head.”) The clip above is from Shampoo, the ’70s classic set tellingly around Election Night 1968, which marked a shift change in American life. Beatty plays a Beverly Hills hairdresser in the film, which he produced and co-authored. You can view it as social commentary or as a quite risque, and even more pointed, sex comedy.
Perhaps the most legendary Casanova of the 20th century, Beatty, now married to the estimable Annette Bening — herself nominated for two Golden Globes tonight as an actress — is one of the most devoted family men of the new century. In between these modes of being, Beatty became a classic movie star (nominated for Best Actor in each of the last four decades) and formidable filmmaker. He bested Orson Welles by having not one but two films in which he was nominated for Academy Awards as actor, writer, producer, and director. For Heaven Can Wait and Reds.
In his 20s, he determined to be more than an actor for hire and produced (and owned) the landmark Bonnie and Clyde, which ushered in a new era in Hollywood. He later redefined the gangster picture again with Bugsy, the story of the man who invented Las Vegas and delivered the scathing political satire, Bulworth, about a suicidal U.S. senator.
Though he can be something of a pain-in-the-neck, he is also a person of great kindness, charm, and loyalty. And he has been and is a formidable advisor and activist in politics. There are associations and projects to be rattled off, but that’s not the purpose of this item. Suffice it to say that he knows virtually everyone in Democratic politics, not to mention figures around the world, as well as a surprising number of prominent Republicans, for the past 40-plus years. Beatty was John F. Kennedy‘s personal choice to play himself in PT-109. He read the script and cheekily turned it down, but that began a long association with the Kennedys. There is much more, but you get the gist.
** ARNOLD GOES A-GLOBING. Joining Beatty for his big night at the Golden Globes will be Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. That’s my little joke, because the two, though old friends, have been at loggerheads of late, with Beatty helping lead the charge against Schwarzenegger’s unsuccessful 2005 special election initiative agenda.
The former action superstar will close the show by presenting the award for Best Picture. Ironically, the governor had wanted to go to the Golden Globes last year, but was talked out of it. Why was he talked out of going to the annual awards ceremony at which he once actually won an award for acting? (Best Newcomer for Stay Hungry, in which he convincingly plays a very intelligent bodybuilder.) Because the State of California was about to execute a convicted murderer. Partying in Hollywood would have looked a bit unseemly.
** 24 SEASON PREMIERE, PART II. The two-hour second part of the Season 6 premiere of the Emmy-winning official show of NWN, 24, airs tonight. Terrorists are doing very bad things in America. No, not Dr. Bashir!
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are at $52 and $52 per barrel, near two-year lows, due to the warmer-than-normal winter. (Notwithstanding the freak snow storm in Las Vegas on Friday afternoon.) There are increasingly serious doubts that OPEC can prop the price back up with production cuts, as OPEC members tend to undercut one another.
** NEVADA PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS SCHEDULE SET. With home state fave Harry Reid, the Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate, presiding, Nevada Democrats and some of the most powerful labor leaders in the nation yesterday in Las Vegas announced the formation of a state and nationally-based commission to oversee the organization and promotion of the Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucuses. Nevada, the second-in-the-nation contest for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, takes place on January 19th, 2008. It will follow the Iowa caucuses and precede the New Hampshire primary.
Three of the top labor leaders in the country, Linda Chavez-Thompson, Anna Burger, and Jerry McEntee, flew west for the MLK weekend, to announce the organization’s staunch backing for the Nevada contest. Chavez-Thompson and Burger represent the two national labor federations. Chavez Thompson is executive vice president of the national AFL-CIO, while Burger is chair of Change To Win. McEntee, for his part, is the longtime president of the powerful AFSCME (American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees). McEntee and AFSCME were the first national labor backers of Bill Clinton when he sought the presidency in 1992.
This, along with Reid’s influence, will help to ensure candidates show at key events scheduled for the Nevada contest. Some on the East Coast, used to the old Iowa/New Hampshire pattern, would like to downgrade Nevada. This seems unlikely to happen now.
There are three presidential debates and two candidate forums now scheduled around the Nevada caucuses. Next month, on February 21st, there will be an issues forum in Carson City, the capital city, in Northern Nevada. On March 24th, there will be an issues forum in Las Vegas.
In mid-August, the first Nevada presidential debate will take place, in Reno. On November 2nd, there will be a second debate, in Las Vegas. Finally on January 15th of 2008, just after Iowa and four days before the Nevada caucuses, there will be a debate in Las Vegas.
There will be a full report on all this, with NWN video, during the week.
** WHAT A DIFFERENCE THREE YEARS MAKES. LA TIMES SAYS “AMEND FOR ARNOLD.” Not so long ago, during the great California recall election of 2003, the LA Times did its best to destroy the nascent political career of one Arnold Alois Schwarzenegger. Now, having endorsed his landslide re-election last November, the Times editorializes today in favor of a Constitutional amendment that would allow the Austrian-born California governor to run for President of the United States.
** 24 BEGINS ITS NEW SEASON TONIGHT. The official NWN show, 24, begins its sixth season tonight with part one of a two-part, four-hour season premiere.
** NEVADA PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUSES CAMPAIGN TO KICK-OFF. On this Martin Luther King Day weekend, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and ranking national labor and Democratic leaders will kick off the campaign for next year’s Nevada presidential caucuses today with a noon announcement at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. (Which we’ll be calling UNLV on NWN.)
Reid and the other Democratic leaders will outline and discuss a series of candidate forums and debates in the Silver State, which is now the Democrats’ second-in-the-nation contest in a struggle which will have a good chance of selecting the next president of the United States.
It did snow in Las Vegas yesterday afternoon. Tourists along the famed Strip goggled at the flurries of snow coming down during the early rush hour. But although it remains cold out, the snow did not stick as had been predicted by somewhat flummoxed local forecasters.
It’s just as well, since the thought of Vegas as a winter wonderland was more than matched for me by knowledge of what it is like to drive around a place in weather with locals who are quite unaccustomed to driving in the weather.
** THE DEMOCRATS’ WESTERN STRATEGY. First, Nevada was moved to the head of the pack in the race for the Democratic presidential nominaton. Then Denver was selected as the site for the 2008 Democratic National Convention. Next, California may move its primary to early February, as there are signs of some increased support for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger‘s proposal to do so.
The net effect is that the Democrats will have a major new component to the struggle for national political power, a very active Western strategy. And in particular, since Democrats have already successfully implemented a West Coast strategy, a very active Mountain West strategy.
I’m in Nevada on a scouting trip in advance of the Democrats’ second-in-the-nation contest next year, the Nevada Presidential Caucuses. It’s just over a year away.
There will be a major announcement here this weekend, regarding forums and debates, featuring Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the one-time chairman of the Nevada Gaming Commission.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices dropped further, to a 19-month low of $51 to $52 per barrel on account of inventory build-up due to warmer than normal winter weather through most of the US.
However, in an interesting wrinkle, snow is forecast for Las Vegas this afternoon, for the first time in several years at this time of year.
** GO WEST! DENVER FOR DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION. Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean will announce that the party’s national convention next year will be in Denver, Colorado. The choice had come down to New York or Denver. New York has had the convention many times. More to the point, New York brings nothing new to the party. Denver, capital city of the Rocky Mountain West, is in the middle of a region where Democrats are making major gains and poised for still more. But there were concerns from labor about lagging unionization of the city’s hotels, as well as concern that the city wasn’t big enough to service the convention. Nevertheless, strategy, for once at least, trumped the familiar.
With Nevada moved to second-in-the-nation status in the contest, and the convention hosted by Denver, the Democrats’ new Western strategy is well underway. There are some forthcoming developments in the Nevada presidential contest.
** ARNOLD APPOINTMENTS AND POLL. A win and a setback of sorts for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. His relatively pro-business appointee to the California Public Utilities Commission, Rachelle Chong, just won confirmation in the state Senate. But his appointee to the Board of Education, California Teachers Association official Joe Nunez, failed confirmation on a party line vote with no Republicans voting to confirm. (A two-thirds vote was required.) This latter is actually probably a plus for Schwarzenegger. Nunez was a key figure in the defeat of his special election initiatives in 2005. His defeat makes Republicans feel good and yet allows the former action superstar to appear magnanimous.
Worse news comes in a new poll from San Jose State University. It shows good general support for his universal health care plan. Except when it comes to including illegal immigrants. LA is the only part of the state which approves. Even the liberal San Francisco Bay Area is opposed.
** THE CALIFORNIA BUDGET GAME. And so the Great Game begins. No, not the centuries long struggle for position and power in Central Asia, as the Brits dubbed it long ago, but the great California budget game. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has submitted a budget that is nearly balanced. If some unlikely things happen, such as Democrats going along with welfare cuts. (That won’t happen.) The process will now play itself out for months, with most actual decisions coming this summer. Should NWN go blow by blow? Or cut to the chase?
** CHRIS DODD FOR PRESIDENT. The veteran liberal Connecticut senator announced this morning on Dom Imus’s radio show that he will seek the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. An odd choice and time, to be sure, with the political world today dominated by the new Bush moves on Iraq. Dodd referred to himself as a “dark horse,” and that’s for sure. Dodd was a young rising star in the 1980s when he made dramatic statements against the Reagan Administration’s proxy wars against leftist and Communist governments in Central and Latin America. But that was a long time ago.
One of the brigades in the new Iraq “surge” strategy is from the legendary
82nd Airborne Division, seen in this U.S. Army video. That’s Lee Greenwood
singing “God Bless The USA.” Good luck, gentlemen. You’ll need it.
President George W. Bush announced the “surge” last night, some 21,000 additional American troops into Iraq in a late-breaking effort to bring order to the strife-torn country. It’s a lot fewer troops than people have been talking about. Nevertheless, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada will push votes on resolutions disapproving the move.
Senator John McCain, a frontrunning Republican presidential candidate who has long advocated an increase in troops in Iraq, in greater numbers than what is happening, said: “It was an excellent speech. The president acknowledged the strategy failed. … Now this is the counterinsurgency strategy of clear, hold and build so the economic and political process can move forward. I believe those who are calling for withdrawal have the obligation to tell us what we do in the region when it descends into chaos.”
Some 17,000 troops will go to one of the centers of instability, the capital city of Baghdad, to try to bring Shiite militias under control. That won’t be easy. As we saw in the Saddam execution video shown on NWN, which turned into an impromptu demonstration on behalf of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose troops have attacked American forces, the militias have thoroughly infiltrated the government. Some would say they are the backbone of the government.
The other 4,000 troops will go to the effort in Anbar province to put down a Sunni insurgency. Al Qaeda figures very prominently in Anbar. It did not have much of a presence in Iraq prior to the war. But once the US invaded, foreign jihadists flocked to Iraq to stir up trouble for America and gain experience in fighting and killing American soldiers.
As recounted in Lawrence Wright’s excellent book on the origins of Islamic jihadist movement, “The Looming Tower,” which is much lauded by American conservatives, Osama bin Laden said before 9/11 that his aim was to provoke the US into a massive attack on the Islamic world in an effort to pin us down, turn other countries against America, and build the jihad. Bin Laden had hoped first that the US would send a large invasion force into Afghanistan. But the American plan for Afghanistan was more nimble, focusing on intelligence, special ops forces, high tech weaponry, and rented local allies for proxy forces.
The Afghanistan model, however, would not work in Iraq, which had a large standing army and no local allies who could be bought off and used as a proxy army. Nevertheless, a relatively small American force was utilized, and won a swift conventional victory in the war before promptly losing the peace, too small in numbers to provide security or properly restore devastated infrastructure.
The surge plan, while smaller than some advocates had hoped, will also be rather slow-moving. It will apparently take four months to get the new forces all in place.
So it’s really not so much a surge as it is a slow roller of a wave.
Why is the move smaller than many war adherents hoped? Because the Joint Chiefs of Staff say this is all that can be spared and Bush has agreed.
Will it work?
Well, there have been situational troop increases before, once the Bush administration got over its stubbornness and acknowledged that Iraq was in crisis. Nothing lasted. But the president has named new, more aggressive commanders. The previous commanders opposed sending more troops.
The move comes as the victory in Afghanistan is in some danger of unraveling as well. Although the ruling Taliban were overthrown, with the help of Russia and Iran, the top leaders of Al Qaeda escaped in the debacle at Tora Bora, when US forces were held back and Afghan proxy forces and Pakistani allies proved unequal to the task. Now the Taliban are making a comeback in Afghanistan. And a sector of neighboring Pakistan is all but out in the open as an enclave for Al Qaeda and other jihadists.
The US position in neighboring Central Asia has also become somewhat precarious. Russia allowed American bases in the former Soviet republics there, but we’re now down to the last one, in Kyrgyzstan, as reported on NWN last month, and the notably unstable government there is making ominous noises about kicking US forces out of the key air base outside the capital city of Bishkek, which supports operations in Afghanistan.
And the increased American forces may be on something of a tight leash, from a time standpoint if not in terms of rules of engagement. There is talk of giving the strategy until November to succeed. The Iraqi government, which said late last year that it would take over all internal security matters by June of this year, doesn’t seem to want more American troops.
Here in America, the surge is supported by a small minority of voters. While John McCain has championed more “boots on the ground” for years, and continues to do so, other politicians, even some supposedly stalwart in their support for the Iraq War, are more conditional.
For example, Rudy Giuliani, who had been somewhat circumspect about the surge, put out this statement last night: “We must not wait for a year or more to measure the success of our strategy but must develop a system to do so monthly, weekly, even daily, so we give our troops the necessary support to succeed.”
Not exactly a statement of unconditional support.
The Democrats, of course, who won the majorities in the Senate and the House last November, are opposed. For now, they are unlikely to cut off funding. But if things go badly, and the country turns further against the war effort, that could easily change.
** MCCAIN ON THE IRAQ “SURGE.” While a few others, such as former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, have endorsed sending more American troops to Iraq, the politician who has pushed longest and hardest for more “boots on the ground” is Senator John McCain. Here is a rough transcription of the Republican presidential candidate’s comments tonight on CNN during an interview with Larry King regarding President George W. Bush‘s relatively small “surge” of 21,000 additional troops to the strife-ridden country.
LARRY KING: Senator McCain, your thoughts on the speech?
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN: i thought it was an excellent speech. the president acknowledged the strategy failed. it’s a new strategy, and i emphasize strategy. because before we would clear and leave and the insurgents would return and take over the neighborhoods. now this is the counterinsurgency strategy of clear, hold and build so the economic and political process can move forward, larry. so this is a new strategy. i believe those who are calling for withdrawal have the obligation to tell us what we do in the region when it desends into chaos, as my friend lindsey graham just said. i’m very pleased to put it in the hands of the architect of our counterinsurgency doctrine, general petraeus, and our new central commander, admiral fallon. so i cannot guaranty success here but i can certainly guaranty the consequences of failure.
KING: senator McCain, politically, and we always have to look at that, does this not hurt you? you are not with the majority of the public.
SEN. MCCAIN: well, i don’t know what’s going to happen a year from now, larry, but i — i can tell you i would much rather lose a campaign than lose a war.
KING: and why are more troops going to win this war? do you — is this winnable war?
SEN. MCCAIN: i think it’s winnable that that we can establish a viable and functional government and have political and economic development. i don’t think it will be easy. i think it will be very difficult. but i strongly feel with enough troops in certain areas, including anbar, you can provide protection. you can have what american and iraqi troops a stable environment. before, larry, i called it whack-amo. we would go in, clear and then leave and that never succeeds, that never works. that’s why for three years i have said we have to have more troops there, otherwise, we are going to face the problem that we are facing today, which is serious.
KING: is that the big mistake at the start?
SEN. MCCAIN: i think a lot in alluding, a big mistake, disbanding the army. all of the consequences of not having control of the country after the brillant military victory and in august of 2003, i came back from a visit. i was there with lindsey graham and in fact i said from istanbul that we had to have more troops over there. we are paying a very heavy price for it. but i do believe we can win it. i’m not guaranteeing it. and i know how tough it is on these young people. it is terrible what we are asking of them. but i think we may be asking a lot more if we fail in iraq because i think the consequences will be widespread.
KING: a couple of other things, senator kennedy said iraq is george bush’s vietnam. any comment?
SEN. MCCAIN: my only comment is president bush’s presidency, to a large degree, will be judged on success or failure. my time in the senate may also be judged to some degree by it.
KING: this idea of having senator lieberman and others part of an inner circle, what do you think of that?
SEN. MCCAIN: i think it’s good. i hope it also includes those, like some of your panel like senator feinstein and others who have different views so the president can get a variety of opinions. and i think it would be a sign of the kind of bipartisanship that americans want.
KING: but his policy is opposed by so many, senator. many in your party.
SEN. MCCAIN: yes.
KING: how long can you continue like that when have you people like hagel and collins and slade and today norm coleman speaking out against it?
SEN. MCCAIN: i think it will be tough. we have to show the american people exactly how we plan to do this. we have to warn them there will probably be an increase in casualties in the short term and i think we also have to tell them the consequences of failure. if i have an admonition to my colleagues saying, withdraw in four to six months, what is plan b? what do we do then in the region? i think we ought to tell the american people that. but i understand how tough this is. we have made so many mistakes, and the price we are paying is very heavy but we are where we are now today and i’m very confident in general petraeus and admiral fallon and i’m most of all confident in these young soldiers that lindsey and i and susan collins and john thune and joe lieberman visited recently. you give them a mission, they will put it upon on their shoulder. they will carry it out. they are the bravest and the best and god bless them.
** ARNOLD BUDGET. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today released a budget proposal that draws fire from the right for emphasizing major spending on health care and infrastructure and environmental programs and from the left for cutting welfare and some public transit programs and raising some college fees. Thus begins a long and torturous process of some months. The budget proposal is, nonetheless, balanced. Meanwhile, President George W. Bush is about to announce a policy that will actually unfold now and over the next few months, a surge — albeit a very slow and relatively small surge — of American troops into Iraq in a last ditch effort to bring a measure of security to the highly complex, strife-torn country years after the president declared “mission accomplished.”
** REGARDING THAT ANTI-JERRY BROWN LAW SUIT. Remember that law suit to block the election of former Governor Jerry Brown as the new California attorney general filed by hyperpartisan Republicans closely allied with landslide loser Chuck Poochigian. After being rebuffed before the election it may be heard later this week. Meanwhile, Brown won by nearly 20 points, a greater margin than that enjoyed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, was certified the winner by Republican Secretary of State Bruce McPherson, and sworn into office at an elegant ceremony in the beaux arts rotunda of San Francisco City Hall on Monday, NWN video to follow.
Well, it turns out that Poochigian’s colleague, Marvin Baxter, was, like Brown, also an inactive member of the state Bar prior to achieving his high office, in his case becoming a state Supreme Court justice. Consider these facts. Baxter graduated from Hastings Law School in San Francisco in 1966. (Brown graduated from Yale Law.) Baxter was a Fresno County deputy DA for two years, starting in 1967. He practiced law at a private firm in Fresno (Andrews, Andrews, Thaxter, Jones & Baxter) for 13 years. During that time, he was very active in bar association activities, including serving as the president of the Fresno Bar.
In 1983, Baxter became appointments secretary to Governor George Deukmejian. His deputy? One Chuck Poochigian, who later complained bitterly that Jerry Brown was unqualified to serve as attorney general as his own campaign to defeat Brown was going down to a landslide defeat.
Baxter served in this capacity for six years and assisted in the appointment of more than 700 judges. But from January 1984 through December 1986, some three years, Baxter was on inactive status. Which only made sense, since he could hardly practice law at the time, so why pay the high dues of being an active member? (Just as Brown was not practicing law as mayor of Oakland.)
Baxter was appointed Associate Justice of the Court of Appeal, Fifth District, in December 1988. He was elevated to the California Supreme Court in January 1991.
At the time of his appointment to the appellate court, he had been inactive three of the five preceding years. As of the time of his elevation to the Supreme Court he also had been inactive during the required time period (judges must be “members” for 10 years prior to appointment).
Any wonder why we’re not hearing much from the hyperpartisan activists aligned with Poochigian who filed this suit? Poochigian, incidentally, never called Brown to congratulate him on his victory as California attorney general. He actually seemed somewhat surprised he lost so badly. He shouldn’t have been. The lead official plaintiff in the suit to disqualify Brown — which I heard about weeks before it was filed, as a Poochigian last gasp move, checked out and determined it had no merit — is Contra Costa County GOP chairman and conservative blogger Tom Del Beccaro. He’s running for one of the vice chair slots in the California Republican Party at next month’s convention.
** AN EARLY ILLINOIS PRIMARY? Illinois may move its presidential primary up to February 5th to help the state’s junior senator, Barack Obama. This would conflict with a move floated by Arnold Schwarzenegger of California’s primary to February 5th.
** THAT POST-PARTISAN STATE OF THE STATE ADDRESS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger continued in the vein of his second inaugural address in last night’s State of the State address, calling for major new programs in infrastructure, the environment, health care, and political reform.
What he calls “Phase 2″of his “Strategic Growth Plan” would include $43.3 billion in bonds for education, water supply, disaster preparedness, and public safety. That is on top of the $42.7 billion in infrastructure bonds he successfully backed last year. Privately, he has talked of $150 billion in infrastructure need in California, noting that the state’s public works have lacked investment for many years. “The future does not wait,” he said.
The health care proposal has been previously discussed. The environmental measure is part of his overall fight to curtail greenhouse gases. It would cut carbon levels in motor fuels used in California by at least 10% by 2020 through expanding alternative fuels and promoting hybrid engine technologies.
Although his 2005 “Year of Reform” initiative agenda crashed and burned, the former action superstar has brought back redistricting reform, calling for an independent commission rather than the Legislature to draw district lines for members of the Legislature and Congress.
He also wants to promote choice in schools by giving parents online access to significant data about schools, including curriculum, graduation rates, and after school programs, the issue which brought him into politics in the first place. Those who know the former Mr. Universe know that this is an issue he likes a lot. In the speech last night, he noted: “If you can get information about a car online, why can’t you get information about your local school online?”
This speech was very much a follow on to Schwarzenegger’s second inaugural address. There is something for pretty much everyone to like, and much for many partisans, mostly on the right in his own Republican Party, to dislike. Though Democrats are already balking at two dams and a possible new water transfer system.
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