New West Notes

U.S. Senator and former Navy Secretary Jim Webb’s response to the State
of the Union drew unusually high marks, even on Fox News.

** BUSH’S STATE. So, the State of the Union. I’m somewhat talked out on the topic. There is, of course, a long form on this. And there is a short form. Here is the short form. It won’t mean much.

President George W. Bush has descended to Nixon resignation levels of job approval. His Iraq policy, what has come to be the centerpiece of his presidency, has collapsed and overwhelming numbers of voters disapprove of his latest attempt to rejigger it. It is even more unpopular in California than it is in the nation as a whole, and that, believe me, is saying something.

I think people have largely tuned Bush out. And with the race to succeed him as president accelerating early, and Democrats in the majority in both the Senate and the House, there is plenty to occupy the space in the popular consciousness that the president ordinarily occupies.

It was good to see that he’s at last discovered the perils of relying on oil, an energy source dominated by interests largely inimical to the United States, and that he’s calling for big cuts in gasoline consumption. He aims to accomplish this through increasing the fuel efficiency of motor vehicles and developing new alternative fuels, largely renewable in nature, here in America.

These moves will also help deal with another threat he mentioned in his State of the Union address, “global climate change.” As Bush uttered these remarks, it was at least mildly amusing to note the persimmon look on the face of the man who has presided over much, if not most, of the energy and national security policy in the Bush administration, Vice President Dick Cheney.

Most of Bush’s State of the Union agenda, however, will be stillborn. And while it is good to see Bush at last acceding to the obvious — make America more secure by making it less dependent on a volatile, highly complex region of the world — it is sad to see the state to which he has descended. He’s an intelligent, able man. There’s no reason to think he doesn’t want to do good. And yet here he is, his presidency a ruin, ably skewered by Jim Webb’s self-penned speech which took up a fraction of the time.

As for Webb, he is getting high marks, even on Fox News, where Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracke praised his remarks, while not unreasonably wondering about his scenario for an Iraq withdrawal. As anticipated here for months, a vice presidential prospect is born. The Democrats running the Congress now, Nevada’s Harry Reid and California’s Nancy Pelosi, knew what they were doing when they picked him.

** THOSE FAR RIGHT-WING CHARGES AGAINST OBAMA. No, I haven’t ignored those silly right-wing charges against Senator Barack Obama. You know, the ones from the Moonie-owned Insight Magazine, uncritically parroted by our friends at Fox News, and repeated around the somewhat witless right-wing blogosphere that Barack Hussein Obama was secretly raised a Muslim by his father (who he actually barely knew), educated in an anti-Western madrassa in Indonesia, and, by implication, though this seems a level of wit somewhat beyond the accusers, is the 21st century equivalent of the Manchurian Candidate.

Well, here is the deal. It’s all nonsense. CNN sent someone to his school and found it was nothing like what was so garishly layed out by Insight, the badly named outlet, and Fox News, which, though conservative, has the wit to know better. There is going to be a lot of this crap. I won’t deal with all of the errant nonsense that will be emanating from the multitude of “media sources” now online. Who has the time for endless nonsense? Here is a rule of thumb, though. If it seems especially garish, it’s almost certainly nonsense until shown to be otherwise.

** DAVOS DOWN. California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom are participating in this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Nunez, who authored California’s landmark climate change bill last year with LA Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, is addressing the forum on climate change and renewable energy issues. Newsom is there to talk about environmental and urban challenges. Davos is perhaps the most famous international forum going these days. NWN, regretably, will be unable to offer video footage of Nunez or Newsom in Switzerland because I decided against loaning my video camera to Nunez advisor Steve Maviglio. I had a friend lose her cell phone, which I ended up replacing, returning from a trip to Europe. That’s not going to happen again.

One New West friend described Davos as “the Playboy Mansion of economic summits.” By which he means you can meet the most amazing people there in fairly casual settings. But apparently not in a grotto.

Other notable Californians are not attending this year, however. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was invited to give a keynote address, but his physician has put the kibosh on too much air travel, due to his need to recover from his pre-Christmas skiing mishap and subsequent leg surgery. And Warren Beatty, a Davos regular, is busy this year with undisclosed whatnot.

** DIFI FOR EARLY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY. California’s senior Senator, Dianne Feinstein, has endorsed the early California Presidential primary on February 5th. Meanwhile, New Hampshire officials continue to whine about Nevada going second after Iowa, and threaten to jump their primary ahead of the January 19th Nevada Presidential caucuses. Nothwithstanding the fact that their own state law doesn’t really allow it, since Nevada is a caucus state, not a primary state.

** FROM THE GIULIANI FILE. Here is that infamous purloined Rudy Giuliani for President campaign strategy document.

** SCHWARZENEGGER WEBCASTS AT 1:30 PM AND 2:15 PM. Top officials of the Schwarzenegger Administration will hold a press conference, webcast live at 1:30 PM today, on President Bush’s energy proposals. Participants include Linda Adams, secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency, Dan Skopec, undersecretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency, David Crane, senior advisor to the Governor, and Dr. Robert Sawyer, chairman of the California Air Resources Board.

Schwarzenegger himself will appear on another live webcast at 2:15 PM, when he appears at a Sacramento school to announce the Governor’s Challenge on behalf of Council on Physical Fitness.

** CONAN THE GREEN. AGAIN. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has won another of those environmental leader awards. This one, for his role in fighting the greenhouse effect and climate change, is from the Delhi Sustainable Development Summit, an annual environmental conference in New Delhi, India. Dr. Alan Lloyd, Schwarzenegger’s former secretary of the Environmental Protection Agency and before that the longtime head of the California Air Resources Board, received the award on the governor’s behalf. The governor isn’t jetsetting around as much right now with his leg injury.

I remember back in 2002 telling people that I thought the action movie superstar was something of an environmentalist. They thought I was kidding.

** KERRY ON. Well, actually, no. I was on the air and several alerts came in on my e-mail that 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry will not run again for president next year, but instead will seek another term in the Senate from Massachusetts. He probably would not have won anyway, but his goose was undoubtedly cooked — as we’ve discussed here on NWN — last November when he made his infamous joke about poor students getting “stuck in Iraq.” Naturally, it happened in the hyperpartisan environs of a Phil Angelides for Governor rally in LA …

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Prices are stable.

** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are around $54 per barrel. Traders are reportedly uncertain if OPEC will try to cut production again to prop up the price. It may be, however, that Saudi Arabia wants a lower price, to put further pressure on Iran, whose production costs are higher and whose economy is in increasing disarray.

U.S. Senator Jim Webb gives the Democratic response to tonight’s State of the Union
address. This is Webb at his pre-inaugural party, footage by a campaign backer.

** WEBB SURGE. New Virginia Senator James Webb, the former secretary of the Navy and acclaimed novelist who was one of the most highly decorated Marine combat officers of the Vietnam War, delivers the Democratic reply to President George W. Bush’s State of the Union address tonight. With Bush embarked on his latest rejiggering of a failed Iraq policy and Webb’s son a Marine now serving in Iraq, it promises to be quite interesting.

Webb is also setting up a political action committee to promote his views. Called the Born Fighting PAC, Webb’s new group will, as he puts it, “seek to re-orient our national security posture and to fix the out-of-control economic inequality that threatens the very nature of our country.”

Webb’s dramatic come-from-behind win over George Allen gave Democrats their majority in the U.S. Senate and ended the hopes of conservative Republicans’ most favored presidential prospect for 2008. It’s only natural given all this that Webb should figure as a vice presidential prospect for the Democrats. I asked a top national Democrat what he thinks of that last night. He said he thinks Webb is extremely impressive but could be “too independent.”

Webb says his favorite presidents are Andrew Jackson and Ronald Reagan, and that his model senator is Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

** CLINTON AND MCCAIN CLASH. Two frontrunning presidential candidates, Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton and Republican Senator John McCain, crossed swords to a certain extent today at a Senate hearing on the likely confirmation of America’s new commander in Iraq, Lieutenant General David Petraeus. While personally friendly with the general, Clinton called the Bush strategy “a dead end.” Petraeus himself had called the situation in Iraq “dire.” For his part, McCain, who didn’t seem to get an answer to his question about how long the surge strategy can be sustained, was critical of Clinton’s dark view, saying it is not good for the troops’ morale. Clinton countered by noting that she’s not saying anything they haven’t already heard, that they “spend a lot of time on the Internet” and are well aware of the political situation. As clashes go, this one was pretty genteel. But the night is young.

** CROCKETT AND TUBBS. (KHAMENEI AND AHMADINEJAD) Not long after Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, erroneously reported to be dead early this month, signaled his apparent displeasure with the fanatical rhetoric of increasingly unpopular Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Israeli-baiting young hardliner, until recently a mayor of Tehran, was back at his provocative ways today saying after a high-level meeting with the Syrians that Israel and America will soon be dead. It’s a patently ludicrous thing to say, since no one thinks Iran’s nuclear program is nearly ready enough to produce a weapon to threaten Israel, and the destruction of the United States is utterly out of the question. Yesterday, Iran barred a few dozen nuclear inspectors.

Is this a kabuki play by the very much alive Khamenei and the very much still-in-office Ahmadinejad to confuse us? Is it a good cop/bad cop routine by the two men, as this Israeli publication suggests? Is it a defiant response to economic pressure from the US and UN, and to somewhat bellicose rhetoric emanating from Washington, along with the recent dispatch of the USS Stennis aircraft carrier battle group to the Persian Gulf? Iran is also undertaking a highly publicized missile launch exercise, as it did also in November.

Iran looms large in political calculations now, though most of the public doesn’t know it yet, because many of the advocates of the original Iraq policy, now in thoroughgoing disarray, are now pointing to Iran as the next target, saying that is how to finally get it right. And it looms large because Iran, as discussed here on several occasions, is a major and frequently deadly mischief maker whose strategic interests — preeminence in the Middle East — are largely opposed to those of America.

Iran is also a country prone to pressure, with a somewhat vulnerable economy. The recent sharp decline in oil prices hurts the Islamic republic more than some other major producers, as Iranian oil costs more to produce. Much of the oil is used in the domestic market, for fuel oil. It also heavily subsidizes the price of gasoline, for which it has remarkably little refining capacity. Ahmadinejad, elected as something of an economic populist promising a revival of Persian power, is, like Bush, hurt badly by the collapse of his own policies, in his case economic. Saber-rattling is a time honored ploy for a weakened politician.

Of course, this is all Kremlinology, dealing with a somewhat murky regime. One thing that does seem clear is that pressure on that regime is good.

** BUSH DISCOVERS FUEL EFFICIENCY. After years of laissez faire energy economics, President George W. Bush discovers CAFE. Not so latte. Although he won’t call for caps on greenhouse gas emissions, he will in the State of the Union tonight call for increased fuel efficiency standards for motor vehicles. Perhaps America is too dependent on energy from volatile regions of the world containing powerful interests inimical to America. Perhaps.

** MCCAIN RIPS CHENEY AND RUMSFELD. With his popularity among independents and more liberal Republicans taking a hit from his championing of a “surge” strategy for Iraq, another Navy man, this one a presidential frontrunner, Senator John McCain, has ripped Vice President Dick Cheney and former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld for their central roles in the collapsed Iraq policy. McCain scores Cheney for contributing to a “witches’ brew” in the Middle East and Rumsfeld as “one of the worst defense secretaries” in American history.

** SCHWARZENEGGER HEALTH CARE WEBCAST TODAY AT 2:30 PM. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, anything but unmindful of the fact that business opposition led to the defeat of the state’s last major health care measure three years ago, is holding another business-oriented roundtable today. This will be an interactive Internet webcast. You can submit questions now.

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Prices are stable.

** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are up to $51 to $53 per barrel on the kidnapping by guerillas of oil workers in Nigeria and colder weather forecast for the easternmost two-thirds of the US.

Texas has passed longtime national leader California in wind energy.

What’s happening, or not, with California’s landmark Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) shows that implementation is a key element of action. The state is coming up short on meeting its mandate of having 20% of its electric power from renewable energy sources in 2010.

The RPS, leading to much greater use of renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, biomass, tidal, and geothermal rather than fossil fuels, is a critical element in the state’s bid to sharply curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Cars are the leading source of the emissions and the electric power industry is second.

The original plan, signed into law in 2002 by then Governor Gray Davis, was for California to have 20% of its electric power come from renewable energy sources by 2017. But Arnold Schwarzenegger, who said in conversations in 2002 and 2003 that he thought that wasn’t aggressive enough, once in office as governor accelerated the RPS requirement from 2017 to 2010.

The state Public Utilities Commission, responsible for overseeing the mandate, in a brief new report makes things sound good on California’s progress with headlines like “Utilities Are Making Steady Progress Toward Ambitious 20 Percent By 2010 Goal.” The report hedges on the question of whether the mandate will be met. Its chart on future renewable power for the state indicates that California will fall somewhat short of the mark, even as it makes the assumption that all contracts will come through. They all certainly will not.

The California Energy Commission, in its regular assessment of the state’s energy picture, has a more grounded and detailed analysis. Its take? “California has achieved only minimal increases in renewable generation.”

“Although IOUs (investor-owned utilities) have signed contracts for as much as 3,936 megawatts (MW) of renewable capacity, only 242 new MW are actually on line and delivering energy. Because the RPS statute includes provisions for flexible compliance—with retail sellers given up to three years to make up deficits in current year RPS targets—the IOUs have argued that they have until 2013 to meet the 20 percent by 2010 goal.”

Of course, when Schwarzenegger said 20% by 2010, he meant 2010, not 2013. 4200 megawatts of additional renewable power is the amount identified in the state’s Energy Action Plan as the amount necessary to get California to the RPS mandate.

What’s causing the hang-up? Several factors, including “insufficient transmission upgrades” and additions to the grid, a murky contracting process, failure to consider contract failure and project delays, and “inattention to near-term opportunities to repower old and out-of-date wind turbines at sites where infrastructure already exists.”

The wind power situation is highly ironic, given that wind energy in America essentially began here with then Governor Jerry Brown’s once derided energy policy of “wood chips and windmills.” Which, of course, included quite a lot of other things, including the big shift to natural gas, the cleanest of the fossil fuels, seen then as the “transition fuel” to the renewable future.

As NWN reported last year, since 2002 Texas has installed more than 1500 megawatts of wind power, pushing oil man George W. Bush’s state past longtime national leader California.

How are the state’s big utilities doing?

“San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E) has made the most progress in increasing its renewable purchases—moving from 1 percent in 2002 to 5.2 percent in 2005—but still has far to go to meet the 20 percent goal by 2010. Similarly, by the end of 2005, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) had only increased its renewable generation by 1.5 percent compared to 2002 levels and will need an additional 8.1 percent to meet its 2010 goal. Southern California Edison (SCE), although furthest along in meeting the 2010 goal, has only increased its renewable generation by 0.2 percent between 2002 and 2005, making little progress in the last three years despite the proximity of Tehachapi.”

I’ve been warning about this lack of progress for the last couple of years and will continue to do so now that the facts are becoming clear.

A brigade from the 82nd Airborne Division, seen in this Army promotional video,
has moved into Iraq.

** “SURGING.” A brigade from the 82nd Airborne Division has moved into Iraq as part of the new surge strategy. Actually, it was already scheduled to go into Iraq, just later in the year.

Meanwhile, Virginia Senator John Warner, the longtime chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee who lost the chairmanship when the Senate went Democratic — actually, when former U.S. Navy Secretary James Webb defeated Warner’s Virginia colleague, George Allen — is coming out against President George W. Bush’s policy. He doesn’t want troops involved with sectarian fighting, which is the whole point of the latest Bush strategy.

** HILLARY CHAT BEGINS. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton just finished the first of her live interactive Internet video chats on her web site. It ran from 4 PM to 4:30 PM Pacific time. She’s doing another one tomorrow and Wednesday at the same time. You can go there now and register. They begin accepting questions at 2 PM Pacific time.

For those who have convinced themselves that Hillary is a charmless bore — and you know who you are — well, think again. She’s pretty good at this.

** CALIFORNIA’S DETERMINATE SENTENCING LAW STRUCK DOWN. The U.S. Supreme Court this morning struck down California’s determinate sentencing law, which allows judges to add on additional years to sentences. Many believe this has contributed to the overcrowding crisis in the state’s deeply troubled prison system. This increases the urgency of a new sentencing commission which has been called for, in various forms, by Democratic legislative leaders and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. New Attorney General Jerry Brown is studying the decision now.

** RICHARDSON ET AL. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson announced yesterday that he is seriously exploring a race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Richardson has a very impressive background, having served as congressman, as U.S. secretary of energy, and as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. If elected, he would be the first Latino president of the United States (not counting Matthew Santos on The West Wing, of course). I believe he will be the first major Latino presidential candidate.

His candidacy has been expected for quite awhile. Hillary Clinton also announced her exploratory candidacy over the weekend, via a very chatty and warm video on her web site. Obviously her candidacy is even more expected, as she is the Democratic presidential frontrunner.

This raises an interesting question, since these politicians are going to formally announce candidacies, as well. What is the news here? I think the news is if someone is not running. I hate when politicians make 17 different versions of the same announcement of something I already know they are doing in the first place.

** SCHWARZENEGGER HEALTH CARE WEBCAST AT 2 PM. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger continues his campaign for his comprehensive health care plan today with a roundtable at Seagate Technology in Fremont. He meets privately for an hour with business leaders, then opens it up to the press and public in a live webcast at 2 PM. The theme? That there are $14.65 billion in “hidden taxes,” cost shifts for subsidizing the uninsured.

** MCCAIN’S MEDIA TEAM. As Senator John McCain’s frontrunning presidential campaign further gears up, a couple of people with strong California ties have come on board. Stuart Stevens and Russ Schriefer of the Stevens & Schriefer Group and Fred Davis of Strategic Perception have joined Mark McKinnon and the firm of Stevens Reed Curcio & Potholm as McCain media consultants. Davis will serve as McCain’s chief creative consultant and Schriefer will oversee the day-to-day media operations.

Fred Davis works out of Southern California and was the lead media consultant in Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s re-election campaign. Remember the foot? Stevens has worked extensively in Hollywood as a writer and producer on the TV series Commander-in-Chief, Mister Sterling, K Street, and Northern Exposure.

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Prices are mostly stable.

** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices have risen to $52 to $53 per barrel on colder weather in the Northeastern US.

Jack Bauer utilizes advanced interrogation techniques.

** 24 STIRS IT UP. Ever a controversial show, 24 is stirring it up again. The critically acclaimed Fox TV series, which depicts a dramatic day fighting terrorism in the faux real time of 24 one-hour episodes, won the Emmy Awards last year for best drama and best actor (Kiefer Sutherland, seen in the video above). Agent Jack Bauer always manages, just, to save the day, but last week fell a little behind the curve as a suitcase nuke at last detonated in Los Angeles. The good news? He has the opportunity to stop the detonation of four more suitcase nukes spread somewhere around America by Islamic jihadist terrorists.

Some American Muslim groups are upset about the current storyline on 24. They don’t like that their co-religionists are the bad guys.

There is, of course, one problem with this. Islamic jihadist terrorists are at war with America in the real world, not just in a TV series. Actually, 24 mixes the equation quite a lot. In seasons past, the ultimate Big Bad has not infrequently turned out to be not what you would guess. In addition to radical Islamists, the leading candidates (see, I’m not going to spoil too much for those who will watch on DVD) have included Eastern Europeans, American-based transnational oil interests, Latin American drug kingpins, a Russian oligarch, a shadowy German on a yacht, and, in last year’s memorable season, the WASP President of the United States. And we’re not really sure what the Chinese are doing. The ultimate hero politician of the show is an assassinated former president who happened to be an African American Democrat. (His brother and former chief of staff is the new president, dealing with a series of horrific terrorist attacks around America which led up to, at the end of last week’s two-part, four-hour season premiere, the suitcase nuke going off in LA.)

Still it’s not exactly a kumbayah show. The martyred ex-president, David Palmer (played by the estimable Dennis Haysbert, who also starred in the, ah, great action movie classic Navy Seals), while working assiduously and barely successfully to avoid being manipulated into launching a big war in the Middle East, didn’t flinch from ordering ruthless operations. And his favored agent, Jack Bauer, does not operate under the Geneva Convention. (Which, incidentally, does not apply to terrorists.) He is notorious for obtaining information through torture. In real life, torture frequently doesn’t work, for the obvious reason that people will tell you anything — especially what they think you want to hear — to get the pain to stop. But in some cases, as in the video above, it can work.

** BECKHAM AND POSH. LA Mayor Antonio Villagaraigosa, a fan of British Prime Minister Tony Blair and something of an Anglophile — a not unusual situation among clothesehorse politicians — mentioned the arrival of British soccer superstar David Beckham as one of the signs of LA’s fitness for the 2016 Olympics at his Friday event to push the city’s bid with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. But is Beckham, the fabled England captain’s skills beginning to fade in his early ’30s, enough to further LA’s multifaceted celebritydom? Or is his fabled wife, Lady Victoria Beckham, the former Posh Spice of the late Spice Girls, more on point? To ask the question may, of course, be to answer it.

** BELATED BERKELEY CONFERENCE ON CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR’S RACE. Every January after the election of the governor of California, the University of California at Berkeley sponsors a forum on the campaign past. I’ve been to every one of these since 1990. It occurred to me yesterday, after skipping the first day on Friday, which focused on the primary, that its time has passed. This conference now feels like a relic of an older media era. Why? Because there’s nothing new. The fare was reheated, refried beans.

I got reports on Day One, which I was too busy after my scouting trip for the Nevada presidential caucuses to attend. There was the expected blame of others and denial of responsibility on the part of the Phil Angelides for Governor participants to account for their ultimate landslide defeat at the hands of Arnold Schwarzenegger in what was otherwise a big Democratic year. (Although pollster Paul Maslin reportedly expressed the opinion that Arnold Schwarzenegger was unbeatable.) Day Two, when I got there, was more of the same.

Angelides was wiped out because he didn’t have enough money. Of course, the day before, the line had been that his narrow primary win over the more electable Steve Westly was NOT because of a highly questionable $10 million “independent” expenditure on his behalf, almost all of it from his longtime patron and business partner, development kingpin Angelo Tsakopoulos. Let’s see. Having the extra $10 million made no difference in the primary. Not having it made all the difference in the general. Got it.

Oh, and the media (most of which probably voted for him, incidentally) didn’t cover his brilliant policy pronouncements. Which generally had no more real substance than an op-ed piece and were thoroughly hedged in key areas like taxes, the budget, and health care. You know, the core of his candidacy. The fact that the Angelides campaign had the wrong message(s) — Arnold equals Bush, etc. — and wrong messenger, while the Schwarzenegger campaign had the opposite was, in this strange view, immaterial.

Aside from the bitter attitude of the Angelides crew, which is also not new, there wasn’t much striking about the conference. Questions didn’t get beneath the surface of what is already known. Which, while a problem in itself, gets at the real problem of the conference. By the time it’s held, it’s all old news. In days of yore, when all that was available was daily newspaper stories and local TV packages and things moved much more slowly, hearing the “inside scoop” on the campaign was worth waiting two months. But now it’s all out there. NWN alone published enough last year on the governor’s race to be compiled into a book. Perish the thought.

Of course, one group moves into the future and that is Team Arnold. Interestingly, the ex-Terminator was represented by campaign and stateside people, the latter of which “moonlighted” on the campaign and also drove much of the year’s dynamics by the time-honored practice of “campaigning by governing.” It was amusing to hear gubernatorial chief of staff Susan Kennedy, the lifelong Democrat, mention her regular phone sessions with former Secretary of State George Shultz, something she never dreamed of back in the Campaign for Economic Democracy days. She and gubernatorial communications director Adam Mendelsohn got along swimmingly, as advertised and contrary to months of Democratic rumor-mongering, with campaign manger Steve Schmidt, chief strategist Matthew Dowd, and deputy campaign manager Reed Galen, all notable Bush/Cheney veterans. What did they say about Arnold and the campaign? You’ve already read it.

** AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI SHIFTING ON IRANIAN NUKES? The Sunday Times of London, owned by the Rupert Murdoch empire, reports that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is in the process of pulling the rug out from under controversial President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the critical issue of Iran’s nuclear program. According to the Times, Khamenei wants a more moderate team of negotiators and would allow the UN Security Council to oversee and monitor Iran’s nuclear program, which is officially for nuclear power but actually for nuclear weapons. This movement on Khamenei’s part probably won’t be enough to cause the pressure to cease.

While Ahmadinejad has been fulminating on the global stage about destroying Israel and hosting a ludicrous Tehran conference denying the Holocaust, his economic policies have proved disastrous. Prices for food and housing, along with unemployment, have skyrocketed. In the somewhat opaque world of Iranian politics, the religious supreme leader, Aytollah Khamenei, is essentially the head of state while the president, Ahmadinejad, is the head of the government. Ultimate power rests with the supreme leader, who is in turn overseen by the national Assembly of Experts. The ultra hardline faction behind Ahmadinejad lost major ground in elections for that body last month.

The presidential nomination process in the Democratic and Republican parties is on the verge of being upended with a move by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic and Republican legislative leaders to shift next year’s California presidential primaries to February 5th. The move would totally alter the dynamic of the presidential campaign.

A bipartisan bill was introduced in the state Senate yesterday. The beneficiaries of the move will probably fall in one or more of several categories. Those who do very well in the earliest states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Those who are well known and very well funded. And those who are relatively liberal Democrats and more moderate Republicans.

The move would place California fifth on the calendar for the Democratic presidential nomination fight, following Iowa on January 14th, Nevada on January 19th, New Hampshire on January 22nd, and South Carolina on January 29th. (The NWN report on the Las Vegas event kicking off the Nevada presidential caucuses is below, with video.) The Republicans currently have Iowa and New Hampshire first and second, though other changes are in the air.

The former action superstar, as seen in the NWN video below, made it very clear this week that he wants to move California’s presidential primary forward to early February, saying he has met with legislative leaders from both parties on the matter. “I’ve spoken to the (legislative) leaders about this and I think it’s something we should do. I’m interested in making California a player.”

“Right now, think about it. We are the number one state in the union, we’re the number one place in the world,” he noted, “and we are kind of an afterthought when it comes to the presidential campaign. I mean, all those guys come out here and they clean up, they take the money and they run. Millions and millions of dollars, both parties, but we are not part of the decision-making. Or that they are even coming here campaigning here. Because they just write it off because California is not relevant.”

“So what we want to do,” said Schwarzenegger, “is we want to make California relevant. And I think the way we make it relevant is by moving up the primaries to February. That is something we’ve talked about and I think that is something we should shoot for.”

So when Schwarzenegger said earlier that he intended to influence the presidential election but did not intend to “chase the candidates from primary to primary,” this is why.

High-ranking sources in both parties in California expect this to happen. The national parties can do little to block it. The primaries for state offices would remain in June.

Still undecided in negotiations between the governor and legislative leaders is whether the California presidential primaries will be winner-take-all, proportional representation, or determined by congressional district in terms of the allocation of delegates to the national party conventions.

Presidential nominees are selected by vote of the delegates to the Republican and Democratic national conventions.

The early California presidential primary would give an unprecedented Western tilt to the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. California would, of course, continue its role as a gold mine for presidential fundraisers. Then Nevada will follow Iowa as the second-in-the-nation contest. California would be the mother-of-all early primaries two-and-a-half weeks later. And the presidential nomination itself will be formally decided at the Democratic national convention in Denver, Colorado.

The Iranian Shahab 3 ballistic missile, a version of the North Korean Nodong,
itself developed with Iranian and Chinese backing.

** AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI’S NEW MOVES. This Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty report discusses Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s new moves, which focus on US efforts to forge an anti-Iranian alliance in the Middle East. (This is the famous US government-funded outlet from the Cold War, repurposed for the 21st century, with Secretary of State Condi Rice on the board.)

Khamenei said “certain Arab states” are making concessions to the United States. He referred to “certain analyses, signs, and reports” indicating U.S. plans to form an anti-Iranian coalition including “Great Britain and certain Arab states.”

His remarks were then repeated by Iranian politicians, who can neither ignore nor criticize the supreme leader’s statements. Khamenei’s positions set the tone and general direction of Iranian policies.

The deployment, now underway, of a second US aircraft carrier battle group to the region may be making the Iranian leader feel some heat. And so may the UN Security Council resolution against Iran’s nuclear program. The “certain Arab states” Khamenei is referring to as working with the US principally means Saudi Arabia.

Top analysts say that Ayatollah Khamenei has terminal cancer, and may die this year. A very likely prospect for the new power in Iran, should Khamenei die? Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. He was defeated in a comeback bid for the post by current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But Ahmadinejad’s ultraconservative forces fared poorly in last month’s elections, in which Rafsanjani emerged as the power on the national Assembly of Experts, which selects and oversees the activities of the supreme leader, who is the actual head of state to the president’s head of government. And Ahmadinejad, the young mayor of Tehran prior to his presidential victory in a low turnout election, has been a hardline embarrassment on the international stage. Rafsanjani is a more moderate figure who has done much business with America. However, he shares Khamenei’s desire to make Iran a nuclear power.

** RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER DENIES CHINA’S ANTI-SATELLITE TEST. Speaking today in Moscow, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov denied that China has successfully tested an anti-satellite weapon. “I have heard reports to that effect,” Ivanov told InterFax, “and they are quite abstract. I’m afraid they don’t have such an anti-satellite basis. The rumors are highly exaggerated.”

Actually, American sources say the test did in fact take place and was successful in knocking out an old Chinese weather satellite. This means a new space race may be underway, as the US Air Force has regarded space as its dominion militarily and satellites are an essential component of all American modern military doctrines. Why would the Russian defense minister claim the test was a failure, beyond a certain Russian penchant for denial? Russia has regarded itself as having the second most potent space program in the world. It is, after all, a mainstay of the International Space Station. The Chinese move means there is a third player among the great powers in space, and comes at a time when Russia is again reasserting itself not just in “the near abroad,” as the former Soviet and Iron Curtain states are known, but in various parts of the world.

** ARNOLD ENLISTS FOR L.A. OLYMPICS. On a sparkling clear day in Los Angeles, with temperatures in the mid-60s and assembled young athletes and schoolchildren in shirtsleeves, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger joined LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, and various dignitaries from business, sports, and the community at LA Memorial Coliseum to announce his push to bring the 2016 Olympic Games to Los Angeles. Villaraigosa pointed out that LA, alone among world cities, already has facilities in place to host the Games. LA hosted the 1984 Olympics, which made a large profit, and the 1932 Olympics, which also turned a profit led to the Coliseum’s construction. The stadium is very familiar to TV viewers as the home field for the USC Trojans football team.

Villaraigosa, excited about the warm winter day after the area’s brief cold snap, which strangely brought snow to Malibu, was more than matched in his enthusiasm by Schwarzenegger. The seven-time Mr. Olympia said that the Olympics are humanity at its best, that “they are a great spectacle, and a great spectacle demands a great stage and there is no greater stage in the world than Los Angeles.” The former action superstar, a very familiar figure throughout the world, said he will do everything he can to bring the Games to LA. He will travel and campaign for the Games. In fact, he brought a hint of that international flair when he responded to Villaraigosa’s warm introduction by uncharacteristically barking a few phrases in German, calling the mayor “Burgermeister Villaraigosa.”

The U.S. Olympic Committee will select the American candidate city in April. LA’s competition is down to Chicago. The International Olympic Committee will select the host city at a meeting in Copenhagen in October 2009. At the 2004 Olympics in Athens, one out of every four members of the U.S. Olympic Team was a Californian.

** SCHWARZENEGGER HEALTH CARE WEBCAST LIVE AT 12:30 PM. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has his second webcast of the day, on his health care plan, when he discusses his comprehensive proposal with business leaders at the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce.

** MCCAIN STRENGTH IN NEW NATIONAL POLL. A new poll for the National Journal’s Hotline shows John McCain running strongest of all the candidates for president nationally. President George W. Bush’s handling of Iraq is favored by only 29%. Despite the fact that the generic Democratic choice is favored over the generic Republican choice for president, 44% to 26%, McCain leads the three top Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards, by between five and 10 points. The best showing for a Democrat in a matchup with McCain or the other top Republican prospect, Rudy Giuliani, is by Edwards, who very narrowly bests Giuliani, 41% to 40%. The other two Democrats trail Giuliani.

The Iraq policy and the new “surge” strategy are widely unpopular. Interestingly enough, however, the surge strategy does markedly better when it is described as the McCain policy rather than the Bush policy. New House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a higher job approval rating than Bush, notwithstanding the fact that far fewer voters have an opinion of her. The third major Republican presidential prospect, Mitt Romney, has a looming problem with his Mormon religion, which is only somewhat more highly regarded than Islam.

** ARNOLD OLYMPIC WEBCAST LIVE AT 11 AM TODAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will appear this morning at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to announce his leadership role in the drive to bring the 2016 Summer Olympic Games to Los Angeles.

Three cities were named last year as finalists for the American candidate slot: San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago. San Francisco was regarded as the favorite, and a top choice to win the Games given the city’s global popularity. But the City by the Bay’s bid was scuttled when the San Francisco 49ers announced plans to move to Silicon Valley, throwing into disarray the prospective Olympics Host Committee’s stadium plans. Now Los Angeles gets the full weight of Schwarzenegger’s backing.

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Memory prices are stable.

** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices remain under $51 per barrel as stockpiles in the US remain high due to warmer than normal winter weather, notwithstanding the recent cold snap, which has seen snow in Malibu and on the Las Vegas Strip. Meanwhile, extreme storms have struck Europe.

** GATES IN KABUL. New Defense Secretary Bob Gates journeyed to Afghanistan, where the Taliban are making a comeback, to tour the country, meet with troops, and assess the situation. Here are some of his comments, courtesy of the U.S. Department of Defense: Well, first of all, sorry we didn’t get to go into Kandahar, but the weather rules all, I guess. I really feel like I had a great visit to Afghanistan. I’m so impressed with all that’s been accomplished here, all the positive things that are happening in the country; very impressed with President Karzai. …

So, all in all, I felt it was a great visit. I feel like I have a pretty good idea of what’s going on here. It’s clear that the Afghan government, the United States, NATO, our partners in Pakistan, have work to do along the border. ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) and the commander let me know their views of what they think the requirements are in terms of forces. And we’ll be pursuing that as we go forward.

** OIL DROPS BELOW $50 PER BARREL, SETTLES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. The price of crude oil dropped below $50 per barrel today in trading before settling slightly above $50. This comes after a large build-up of inventory with weeks of milder than normal weather through much of the U.S., notwithstanding the recent cold snap and spate of freakish weather, which includes snow falling on the Las Vegas Strip and in Malibu.

** HOUSE INTEL CHAIRMAN FLIPS ON SURGE. Remember new House Intelligence Committee Chairman Silvestre Reyes, the Texas Democrat who thought that Al Qaeda was Shiite rather than Sunni and really didn’t know the makeup of Hezbollah? He was, surprisingly, for an increase of “20,000 to 30,000 troops” in Iraq to go after the sectarian militias. That was a surprise, given that Speaker Nancy Pelosi ostensibly selected Reyes over LA Congresswoman Jane Harman because Harman had supposedly been too hawkish on Iraq. Well, now that President George W. Bush is doing what Reyes said he thought should be done, Reyes is against it. I guess he didn’t know what he knew.

** KHAMENEI SOURING ON AHMADINEJAD? Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appears to be behind an unprecedented public trashing of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 150 members of the Iranian Parliament have signed a public letter sharply rebuking America’s favorite new lunatic for his tenure in office, including his brand-new trip to Venezuela to hang with Commandante Hugo Chavez, as well as his economic policies and his extraordinarily provocative statements about Iran’s nuclear program. Ahmadinejad’s hardline faction did poorly in recent Iranian elections.

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Prices are mostly stable.

** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices are up around $52 per barrel.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger engages in his first real session with the press since his skiing mishap. The lovely room fixture image above randomly selected by YouTube.

For all his high-profile public appearances of late, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has spent remarkably little time speaking with the California press corps, in part due to his recuperation from his seriously broken leg of last month. He remedied that situation some yesterday with his annual appearance before the bulk of the political press corps at a Sacramento Press Club luncheon.

Schwarzenegger’s address, as it were, lasted only a few minutes at the annual press club luncheon in the state capital. Then he threw the floor open for nearly a half hour of questions and answers.

Relatively little news was broken, not that attempts were not made, though not necessarily by him. It was primarily interesting for Schwarzenegger’s state of mind, and for making his positions clearer. He still clearly depends on his crutches, but had no real problem during his half-hour plus on his feet.

The former action superstar made it very clear that he wants to move California’s presidential primary forward to early February, saying he has met with legislative leaders from both parties on the matter. “We’re the number one state in the union, number one place in the world,” he noted, “and we are kind of an afterthought when it comes to the presidential campaign. I mean, all those guys come out here and they clean up, they take the money and they run. Millions and millions of dollars, both parties, but we are not part of the decision-making. … We want to make California relevant. The way we make it relevant is by moving up the primaries to February.”

He said he intends to inject his post-partisan menu of issues — such as global warming, stem cell research, health care, infrastructure, and a post-partisan mode of decision-making — into the presidential campaign process, but “won’t chase the candidates from state to state.”

Asked if he would endorse a candidate, he said that was a long ways off. He would have to look at all the candidates and who was best on the issues. This theoretically did not rule out the Democrats. Asked, in an amusing exchange with veteran LA Times columnist George Skelton, seen in the NWN video above, to clarify whether he was saying he might endorse a Democrat for president, he said that was not his intention, “that we all should look at all the candidates. I think we have some good Republican candidates that are out there.” He’s previously named Arizona Senator John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, both prospective Republican candidates, and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a prospective independent candidate, as Republicans he admires.

The former Mr. Universe, whose popularity is back up near his early first term levels, said he does not think he is trying to do too much with his expansive second term agenda, reminding that he is “someone who wants to do big things.” On health care, he said that there is interest in both parties in accomplishing a comprehensive program, and ruled out, in a definitive sounding manner, a compromise involving children only.

Schwarzenegger also clarified his position on Iraq. Late last year, he had said that he wanted a “timeline” for the withdrawal of American troops. Then on a Sunday morning interview show, he said that he supported President George W. Bush in his plan to “surge” about 20,000 troops into Iraq to try to bring greater security there. Today, he said that he supports both. A surge to try to bring greater security, a transition to Iraqi forces for the provision of security, and a timeline for an American troop withdrawal, mentioning the end of the year as a time when that might begin.

“I personally belive that we should not just turn our back on Iraq and walk away because mistakes were made,” said Schwarzenegger. “We should set a deadline, and a timeline, for when we pull out. I think we should make it very clear to the Iraqi government that we won’t stay there forever. That by the end of this year, they have to be self-reliant, and they have to create a military as soon as possible so that they can take care of themselves. I think that we can pull out of there in a victorious way. That’s very important in terms of what’s going on in the Middle East.”

A few, like longtime Democratic Party consultant Bob Mulholland, tried to make this into support for the Bush position. Actually, it sounds more like the Iraq Study Group. And the Angelides for Governor campaign, which tried all last year to push the Bush equals Schwarzenegger line and got 39% of the vote in mostly blue state California for its efforts, is over.

An F/A-18 Hornet launches off the deck of USS Eisenhower.

** U.S. AIRCRAFT CARRIER BATTLE GROUP DEPLOYS TO PERSIAN GULF. As reported and discussed on NWN last month, a second American aircraft carrier and her group of supporting vessels is now on her way to the Persian Gulf. USS John Stennis, homeported in Bremerton, Washington, left harbor yesterday en route to the Middle East where she will join the USS Eisenhower group. Stennis will stop in San Diego to pick up the air wing. The addition of the air wing, which comprises some 80 aircraft, mostly combined fighter/strike aircraft such as the one above, will swell the ship’s complement from 3200 to 5000. The Stennis group includes a cruiser and three destroyers.

Originally, the carrier was to be deployed in the Western Pacific, in part to be ready for any eventualities with a nuclear saber-rattling North Korea. Now she’s off to the Gulf, where she will eventually link up with Eisenhower, which is not presently in the Gulf. Eisenhower is in the Indian Ocean, conducting operations off the coast of Somalia. This will be the first time since 2003 that two aircraft carriers are in the Middle Eastern region. They can be used to support the “surge” strategy in Iraq, to interdict terrorist operations around the region, and to make a show of force against Iran.

** ARNOLD MET THE PRESS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger spoke for only a few minutes today at the annual press club luncheon in the state capital, then threw the floor open for nearly a half hour of questions and answers. I’ll have a full report, with NWN video, tomorrow, but for now suffice it to say that relatively little news was broken. It was primarily interesting for Schwarzenegger’s state of mind. He still clearly depends on his crutches, but had no real problem during his half-hour plus on his feet.

The former action superstar reiterated that he wants to move California’s presidential primary forward to early February, saying he has met with legislative leaders from both parties on the matter. He said he intends to inject his post-partisan menu of issues into the presidential campaign process, but “won’t chase the candidates from state to state.” Asked if he would endorse a candidate, he said that was a long ways off and that he would have to look at all the candidates and who was best on the issues, theoretically not ruling out the Democrats.

He said he does not think he is trying to do much with his expansive second term agenda, reminding that he is “someone who wants to do big things.” On health care, he said that there is interest in both parties in accomplishing a comprehensive program, and ruled out a compromise involving children only. He also clarified his position on Iraq. Late last year, he had said that he wanted a “timeline” for the withdrawal of American troops. Then on a Sunday morning interview show, he said that he supported President George W. Bush in his plan to “surge” about 20,000 troops into Iraq to try to bring greater security there. Today, he said that he supports both. A surge to try to bring greater security, a transition to Iraqi forces for the provision of security, and a timeline for an American troop withdrawal, mentioning the end of the year as a time when that might begin.

** ARNOLD MEETS THE PRESS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will have his first extended, interactive exposure of the year to the California political press corps today when he gives the annual gubernatorial address to a luncheon of the Sacramento Press Club. The former action superstar has been slowed by his serious broken leg and subsequent surgery of last month, and has been mostly unavailable to the press since then. Needless to say, there has been no little amount of grumbling.

The event will be webcast live at 12:15 PM. Or thereabouts.

** AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI CALLS FOR SHIA/SUNNI ALLIANCE. Earlier this week, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told a gathering of Shia and Sunni scholars in Tehran that they must beware efforts by the US and its allies to exploit their differences to gain power in the Middle East. Noting that the British, with their long history in the region, are especially adept at pitting one Islamic faction against another, Khamenei, who was reported to be dead a few weeks ago by Iraq War hawk Michael Ledeen, claimed that the most violent places in Iraq are those under American control. He did not mention, of course, that that is due to efforts, some of them supported by Iran, to get the Americans out of those areas.

** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Prices are relatively stable.

** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices have dropped down near $50 per barrel, a 20-month low. OPEC production cuts to prop up the price have failed to take hold, due to constant undercutting by members.