The Iranian Shahab 3 ballistic missile, a version of the North Korean Nodong,
itself developed with Iranian and Chinese backing.
** AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI’S NEW MOVES. This Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty report discusses Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s new moves, which focus on US efforts to forge an anti-Iranian alliance in the Middle East. (This is the famous US government-funded outlet from the Cold War, repurposed for the 21st century, with Secretary of State Condi Rice on the board.)
Khamenei said “certain Arab states” are making concessions to the United States. He referred to “certain analyses, signs, and reports” indicating U.S. plans to form an anti-Iranian coalition including “Great Britain and certain Arab states.”
Such a coalition would achieve little, he added, since Iran already withstood eight years of war with Iraq in the 1980s. Iranian officials like to say that Baghdad enjoyed the support of Arab states, the West, and the Soviet Union during that bloody conflict but yet Iraq still did not triumph.
Khamanei made similar remarks on January 15, accusing Western powers of working against Iran and its defense of the rights of Muslims in various places, including Palestine and Lebanon.
His remarks were then repeated by Iranian politicians, who can neither ignore nor criticize the supreme leader’s statements. Khamenei’s positions set the tone and general direction of Iranian policies.
The deployment, now underway, of a second US aircraft carrier battle group to the region may be making the Iranian leader feel some heat. And so may the UN Security Council resolution against Iran’s nuclear program. The “certain Arab states” Khamenei is referring to as working with the US principally means Saudi Arabia.
Top analysts say that Ayatollah Khamenei has terminal cancer, and may die this year. A very likely prospect for the new power in Iran, should Khamenei die? Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. He was defeated in a comeback bid for the post by current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But Ahmadinejad’s ultraconservative forces fared poorly in last month’s elections, in which Rafsanjani emerged as the power on the national Assembly of Experts, which selects and oversees the activities of the supreme leader, who is the actual head of state to the president’s head of government. And Ahmadinejad, the young mayor of Tehran prior to his presidential victory in a low turnout election, has been a hardline embarrassment on the international stage. Rafsanjani is a more moderate figure who has done much business with America. However, he shares Khamenei’s desire to make Iran a nuclear power.
** RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER DENIES CHINA’S ANTI-SATELLITE TEST. Speaking today in Moscow, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov denied that China has successfully tested an anti-satellite weapon. “I have heard reports to that effect,” Ivanov told InterFax, “and they are quite abstract. I’m afraid they don’t have such an anti-satellite basis. The rumors are highly exaggerated.”
Actually, American sources say the test did in fact take place and was successful in knocking out an old Chinese weather satellite. This means a new space race may be underway, as the US Air Force has regarded space as its dominion militarily and satellites are an essential component of all American modern military doctrines. Why would the Russian defense minister claim the test was a failure, beyond a certain Russian penchant for denial? Russia has regarded itself as having the second most potent space program in the world. It is, after all, a mainstay of the International Space Station. The Chinese move means there is a third player among the great powers in space, and comes at a time when Russia is again reasserting itself not just in “the near abroad,” as the former Soviet and Iron Curtain states are known, but in various parts of the world.
** ARNOLD ENLISTS FOR L.A. OLYMPICS. On a sparkling clear day in Los Angeles, with temperatures in the mid-60s and assembled young athletes and schoolchildren in shirtsleeves, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger joined LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, and various dignitaries from business, sports, and the community at LA Memorial Coliseum to announce his push to bring the 2016 Olympic Games to Los Angeles. Villaraigosa pointed out that LA, alone among world cities, already has facilities in place to host the Games. LA hosted the 1984 Olympics, which made a large profit, and the 1932 Olympics, which also turned a profit led to the Coliseum’s construction. The stadium is very familiar to TV viewers as the home field for the USC Trojans football team.
Villaraigosa, excited about the warm winter day after the area’s brief cold snap, which strangely brought snow to Malibu, was more than matched in his enthusiasm by Schwarzenegger. The seven-time Mr. Olympia said that the Olympics are humanity at its best, that “they are a great spectacle, and a great spectacle demands a great stage and there is no greater stage in the world than Los Angeles.” The former action superstar, a very familiar figure throughout the world, said he will do everything he can to bring the Games to LA. He will travel and campaign for the Games. In fact, he brought a hint of that international flair when he responded to Villaraigosa’s warm introduction by uncharacteristically barking a few phrases in German, calling the mayor “Burgermeister Villaraigosa.”
The U.S. Olympic Committee will select the American candidate city in April. LA’s competition is down to Chicago. The International Olympic Committee will select the host city at a meeting in Copenhagen in October 2009. At the 2004 Olympics in Athens, one out of every four members of the U.S. Olympic Team was a Californian.
** SCHWARZENEGGER HEALTH CARE WEBCAST LIVE AT 12:30 PM. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has his second webcast of the day, on his health care plan, when he discusses his comprehensive proposal with business leaders at the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce.
** MCCAIN STRENGTH IN NEW NATIONAL POLL. A new poll for the National Journal’s Hotline shows John McCain running strongest of all the candidates for president nationally. President George W. Bush‘s handling of Iraq is favored by only 29%. Despite the fact that the generic Democratic choice is favored over the generic Republican choice for president, 44% to 26%, McCain leads the three top Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards, by between five and 10 points. The best showing for a Democrat in a matchup with McCain or the other top Republican prospect, Rudy Giuliani, is by Edwards, who very narrowly bests Giuliani, 41% to 40%. The other two Democrats trail Giuliani.
The Iraq policy and the new “surge” strategy are widely unpopular. Interestingly enough, however, the surge strategy does markedly better when it is described as the McCain policy rather than the Bush policy. New House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a higher job approval rating than Bush, notwithstanding the fact that far fewer voters have an opinion of her. The third major Republican presidential prospect, Mitt Romney, has a looming problem with his Mormon religion, which is only somewhat more highly regarded than Islam.
** ARNOLD OLYMPIC WEBCAST LIVE AT 11 AM TODAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will appear this morning at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to announce his leadership role in the drive to bring the 2016 Summer Olympic Games to Los Angeles.
Three cities were named last year as finalists for the American candidate slot: San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago. San Francisco was regarded as the favorite, and a top choice to win the Games given the city’s global popularity. But the City by the Bay’s bid was scuttled when the San Francisco 49ers announced plans to move to Silicon Valley, throwing into disarray the prospective Olympics Host Committee’s stadium plans. Now Los Angeles gets the full weight of Schwarzenegger’s backing.
** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis. Memory prices are stable.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices remain under $51 per barrel as stockpiles in the US remain high due to warmer than normal winter weather, notwithstanding the recent cold snap, which has seen snow in Malibu and on the Las Vegas Strip. Meanwhile, extreme storms have struck Europe.
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You mean the Ayatollah of Iran didn’t really die at the beginning of January? lol
Is nuclear proliferation inevitable? If suitcase nukes can be anywhere, I don;t know how we stop them.
I believe we will strike the Iranian nuclear targets soon.
I don’t expect a US strike on Iran any time soon.
NWN”Khamenei said “certain Arab states” are making concessions to the United States. He referred to “certain analyses, signs, and reports” indicating U.S. plans to form an anti-Iranian coalition including “Great Britain and certain Arab states.”
There is some truth to this and it will certainly ring “true” to many Arabs/Shias in surrounding ME countries and Iranians on the street…even the Iranian students in the street who want change…this is not good for either the US or the regimes of Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Ahmadinejad has not delivered on promised economic reforms and he will not be able to…this will further marginalize him from his base…that is good.
Prince Turki al-Faisal is seen as a promoter of moderation with Iran
That is good.
It is unclear if Prince Turki and Rafsanjani will prevail in their various palace intrigues and a GREAT DEAL of their success is dependent on smart moves from the US. That is not so good …considering our recent history.
This administration is so troubling e.g.,a friend living in Jerusalem today e-mailed me an article and photo of Condi meeting with Member of Knesset (MK) Lieberman… you have written about him previously Mr. Bradley, the Russian born billionaire politician that wants Israel to be a Jewish state without an Arab population …..NO DIPLOMATIC PROTOCOL called for that meeting to take place and it should not have happened …It sends such a terrible message… it is a de-facto endorsement of his racist ideology ….with new elections looming ….either Condi is clueless on the Middle East or someone in the administration with authority insisted she meet with him…either way this is terrible…for the US and for and Israel.
Avigdor Lieberman is a member of the Israeli Cabinet, as minister for strategic affairs.
Perhaps it was a favor to more moderate elements in the Israeli coalition government who want to placate him with the prestige of a meeting with the American secretary of state.
The moderates do not what him legitimized any mor ethan he already has been by Olmert and some of the US Jewish organizations that had him here recently on a speaking tour …elections are looming …it looks very bad for moderates…that meeting did not have to take place …unless it served someones agenda and it was not the moderate agenda that it served…
Don’t forget that he is part of a tenuous coalition government.
Exactly, elections are loomings…that is why this was not helpful
BTW, In Ha’aretz today there is an interesting interview with the Kindg of Jordan it opens with…
“Jordan aspires to develop nuclear power for peaceful purposes and believes that unless all sides move quickly toward a peace settlement in the region, the recent confrontation in Lebanon is only a hint of disasters to come”
Maybe nuclear power will bring a peace …of some sort!
Arnold’s Olympics:
I attended the Equestrian Show Jumping at the 1984 Olympics. The Equestrian events were located at the beautiful Santa Anita race track. I think the cross country Equestrian’s were at Rancho Santa Fe? This would be wonderful to repeat this event in Los Angeles. I remember the traffic in LA was much improved during the Olympics. Go for it Arnold!
Maybe nuclear power will bring a peace …of some sort!
i.e., by making this administration and others that follow understand we need to revisit Kennan’s strategy of “containment” not go the route of military attacks and obligations that we cannot nor should not commit to…
The ayatollah is remarkably active for a dead man.
The US has had almost as much luck waiting-out the death of tyrants as overthrowing them…
BTW, if you’ve got a dead horse to beat, bring it to Berkeley today:
http://igs.berkeley.edu/events/governor_conference.html
I can’t wait to hear what conspiracies were at play to defeat Phil…
Oh, yes, the quadrennial IGS conference on the California governor’s race.
Talk about reheating refried beans …
More Angerlides, no thanks.
Jonathan Hemlock : “The ayatollah is remarkably active for a dead man.”
So’s this guy: http://www.abevigoda.com
Now that guy is dead.
He has a film in post-production, which is more than ANY ayatollah can claim (they wish): http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0001820
And he’s five years older than Castro. Take that Fidel!
That’s funny, I thought he had died.
Prediction: if the Olympics for L.A. bid is successful look for the Exposition light rail project to be fast tracked (it goes right by the Coliseum) and with substantial federal funding [precedent for this was set by the Salt Lake project so it was ready for the Winter Olumpics].
P.A. Abe Vigoda forever!
My countrypeople lie too much. It is a great fault to lie regards what is already known.
Villaraigosa was saying all the transit stuff would be in place in time for the Olympics.
LA should get the American slot. Maybe Schwarzeneger can shmooze the International Olympic Committee.
I dont understand why people of any country lie about the obvious.
So, my understanding of this whole Olympics thing is as follows:
The USOC believed that San Francisco had the inside track to be both the U.S. entry AND the eventual winner for the Olympics. The IOC said that SF and the Bay Area had the best facilities, many already in place, to provide for the needs of the games.
So, how did the Bay Area lose the Games…you guessed it, the idiots at the SF 49′ers. The ownership of that team — combined with some of the knucklehead Supes in SF — have combined to screw the Bay Area out of billions of dollars in investment.
Well done Niners…well done. Someone should really reconsider who is doing their Gov’t Relations/PR over there. Clearly, they don’t know how to work in the spirit of compromise to get it done.
“Quiet, They Are Shooting”
That was a huge front page headline of a much talked about controversial article in a major Israeli paper in the first days of the 1982 Israel/Lebanon War by a very very very talented young journalist and war hero…I thought about it recently as I waded thru the US and Internatl press coverage of Somalia…
Yes, that’s right. San Francisco is the perfect American city to win the Olympics at this point in history.
I love LA, but LA’s already had the Games and it lacks the charm and cosmopolitanism and has threatening cultural connotations. That said, I think LA has a very strong chance to win the Olympics.
This was a once in a lifetime opportunity with San Francisco.
Oh so the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad “feud” isn’t based on external issues — its mostly based on internal concerns.
As Ahmadinejad’s ultraconservative nutcases lost big in last month’s elections, Khamenei has expressed serious reservations that the 1979 revolution is in serious jeopardy. Ahmadinejad and his evil firebreathers are causing the current generation to reconsider their fervor for the current Iranian style of governance.
Frankly, I think Khamenei and the Guardian Council are very worried about being strung up in the city square in Teheran. Cause thats what they did to the supporters of the Shah and Khamenei is nothing if not a student of history. He knows how this can go very wrong very quickly.
Now, as this relates to the international front, Khamenei knows that Ahmadinejad’s running of his mouth makes the Americans, and more importantly, the Saudi’s, Syrians and Israelis, very nervous. While he may not care about the Americans, he damn sure cares about the impression created with the Saudis, losing the support of the Syrians and the might of the Israeli military (remember, the Israelis bombed the hell out of an Iranian nuclear facility in the 1980′s).
The result of angering of these people, Khamenei fully recognizes, would be tacit approval for U.S. intervention either through direct military intervention or the sponsorship of moderate, anti-government forces already coalescing in more rural parts of Iran. If these forces are fed with limitless US/British/Israeli/International support, Khamenei/Guardian Council know how quickly and easily they could lose their tenuous hold on power.
Aside from that whole Olympics thing, I’m going to have the ’49ers practically in my backyard, screwing up traffic on 101 even worse than it’s screwed already.
How about this: LA can have the Olympics, if it’ll also take the ’49ers off our hands!
Dr. John York,his PR person and the rest of team personnel dealing with this issue alshould all be fired. Their ridiculous threats of moving the team cost them more than they realize.
For example, they don’t recognize how winning the Games would have helped them pay for the stadium THEY wanted and how the image of the struggling team could have improved dramatically. Whats worse, the damage this does to Denise DeBartolo York’s image in SF is incalculable.
Even if the Niners get better next year, business leaders and political folks up and down the Pennisula should remember the billions in long-term investments the Bay Area have lost as a result of their lack of good sense and political judgement. If Santa Clara wants to build them a stadium, they better think long and hard about the group they are getting into bed with and what they are actually bringing to the table.
It’s sad, really. Aside from the obvious business and politics of it, as a native San Franciscan I believe that a San Francisco Olympics would have been wonderful.
CADTS – Twice in recent memory, just as the San Diego Chargers head into the playoffs it is leaked to the paper how the team wants to move if it doesn’t get a better stadium deal from the city. What a bunch of bozos. Oh wait, one of those times was a week before the Superbowl was played in town. Masters of Partypooping.
Perhaps the Chargers should avoid blowing the playoff game before pretending being ready to move to .. where?
This last time the paper talked about the Chargers moving to Las Vegas. (As if.) Before, there was talk about the Chargers moving back to LA.
The NFL wouldn’t allow a team to move to Vegas. Too much temptation.
I don’t think the Iranians are all that nervous at all …Khamenei has a problem with Ahmadinejad, succession due to his health, and the Saudis Opec clout..so he is now laying the groundwork to deal with them and marginalizing Ahmadinejad is a big part of taking care of all three issues. Iran is paying a high price economically with the Saudis not reducing oil production …I think that was what Ahmadinejad’s trip to South American was really about more than anything else…he was hoping to get Chavez to throw one of his hissy fits in hope that OPEC members would call a meeting (They are not scheduled again to meet until Mar 15 in Vienna) and that they could force a cut in production…The Saudis’ said “Sorry Charlie”! no meeting! no cuts! As they are more than happy to see economic chaos in Iran…
This is not the same situation as the 1980′s, I lived in Israel then …those were surgical targeted attacks made by Israel …most analysts say they would be difficult if not impossible to duplicate…The US and Israel are terribly weakened right now in the Middle East…Israel’s attack on Lebanon was supposed to be an incursion not a war, their intelligence was off, their strategy and calculations both political and military, and more will come out with once this special review is completed which was demanded by the public …Israel did not achieve its stated goals of getting their soldiers back or disarming Hezbollah and the Arabs see that as a great victory…Israel cannot take on the Iranians alone…(even Netanyahu understands that) at the moment they are without a Chief of Staff who resigned under a cloud of corruption and ineptness, they are stuck with a terrible Defense Minister who doe snot have the decency to resign , and a very ineffective PM under criminal investigation and who is a poor leader, and who may be forced to resign…more than ever Israel needs to be creative and build strategic alliances with her neighbors based on mutual security issues which focus on containing not attacking Iran…
an attack on by the US on Iran could…I believe would have a ripple effect on oil rich central Asia, especially Azerbaijan, where we are STRUGGLING to maintain any influence over Russia and China. .it is also a key part of a corridor to supply Caspian and Central Asian energy resources westward to Europe without sending them through Russia or Iran…that is critical… Azerbaijan is on Iran’s border It has a secular government but a Shia population with MANY STUDENTS in Iran…Iran’s students may not like the present regime but that does not mean they would be pro-US if we attacked…That is like Rumsfeld thinking the Iraqis’ were going to welcome us with open arms and not see us as an enemy or occupier. An attack on Iran will make everyone in the region anti-US …and if it leads to chaos in Central Asia, the West and Europe and probably Russia will be dealing with China to get any oil natural gas…everyone just needs to take a breath…because there probably is such a thing as hell on earth..
Barbara: One half of Azerbaijan is in Iran. Russia and Persia split it between them in the 19th century when the Persian Shah sold half to the Czar. A friend of mine from Tabriz once lamented to me that in the US he is distrusted because he is from Iran, but when he goes to Iran, he is despised because he is an Azeri. Not long after that I ran into some one from Tehran (ie Persian) and I mentioned to him that I knew some one from Tabriz. I was quickly informed about how “terrible” “those people” were. I do not mean to diminish the negative consequences on a strike against Iran, but we should realize that there is a lot of bad blood between the ethnic groups in Iran.
True..I have lived in this part of the world (ME/CA) not just Israel..I am well aware of the bad blood between the groups…but an attack on Iran without a full court diplomatic press would create alliances even between old enemies…that part of the world are “true believers” that oli/energy needs drives what they see as “US aggression”
Kinda like how the Sunni and Shia militias in Iraq can’t agre on anything, except how much they hate the Americans. :-/
There is a intriguing and HOPEFULLY ACCURATE report in today’s 1/21 London SUNDAY TIMES asserting that :
“IRAN’S supreme leader is considering a change of policy on the country’s nuclear programme in an effort to defuse growing tension with the West, according to senior sources in Tehran.
Alarmed by mounting US pressure and United Nations sanctions, officials close to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei favour the appointment of a more moderate team for international negotiations on the supervision of its nuclear facilities.
The move would be a snub to the bellicose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,…..
Tehran sources said the impetus for a policy switch was coming from Khamenei, who has ultimate power over Iran’s foreign policy, security and armed forces…..
He also considers the national interest is being undermined by an inexperienced president whose rhetoric is unnecessarily inflammatory.
Under proposals now being debated, an international group made up of the permanent five members of the UN security council, plus Germany or a nuclear power such as India, would oversee and monitor Iran’s nuclear programme.
Washington may judge this too little, too late. But European negotiators would be expected to regard such a move as a significant step towards reopening talks about the programme.”Sunday Times 1/21
BTW it was in general what you would call a bad day for President A…he presented his budget which was not well received by either conservatives and reformers…
I am not as worried about a strike against Iran, for a variety of reasons.
The London Sunday Times report is interesting.
I agree…btw, do you know if Rafsanjani that you referenced is same Rafsanjani who was Speaker of the Parliament in the 1980′s? If yes then he is well known to certain sectors of the government and he has always been a conservative yet very pragmatic individual…
I meant Rafsanjani is well known to certain sectors of our government…
Yes, I’ve mentioned that on a few occasions.
well the cast of characters from a certain “play” in the 1980′s is certainly doing an encore…
Iran/Contra, that golden oldie.
The ’80s were due for a big comeback. That was a fun decade for me. Except when it wasn’t. I was, of course, 12 at the time.