** OBAMA STIRS IT UP IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. Senator Barack Obama drew large crowds today in his first foray into the early primary state as a media sensation, stirring Kennedyesque enthusiasm with his call for “a new sense of hope.” As someone once said, a little vagueness goes a long way in this business.
** 35 TO 24. (No, not the Saints-Cowboys score, that ended up 42-17.) Just 35 days till the season premiere of the official NWN show, 24. Should I spoil the DVD prequel of what happens in between last season and the next?
** HASTA LA VISTA, PINOCHET. New West friend Marc Cooper, who barely managed to escape with his life and that of his fiancee as a young interpreter for murdered Chilean President Salvador Allende during the bloody 1973 coup that installed the brutal regime of right-wing General Augusto Pinochet, reflects on today’s passing of the former dictator. Pinochet died on the verge of facing various murder and corruption charges. Today, in an intriguing irony, is International Human Rights Day.
** WHY JANE HARMAN WAS THE BEST CHOICE FOR HOUSE INTEL CHAIR. I’ve been reporting that incoming House Intelligence Committee Chairman Silvestre Reyes, a Texas Democrat who was in the Border Patrol for 27 years, is not, shall we say, highly regarded among foreign policy and intelligence experts. A “timeserver” on the committee, as I quoted one intelligence expert on a few occasions.
It’s actually a little worse than I thought.
Chairman Reyes does not know the religious makeup of Al Qaeda. Nor does he know the makeup of Hezbollah. He actually believed that Al Qaeda includes Sunnis and Shiites, the two fundamental rival sects of Islam. Actually, he thought Al Qaeda is mostly Shiite, which is not only wrong, but horribly wrong. (They’re Sunnis, of course, which is why so many of the 9/11 bombers were Saudis. Iran is Shiite, which is why the Saudis say they may intervene when the US withdraws from Iraq.) For someone who has spent years — or “served time,” as my source had it weeks ago as he typed the congressman as a typical political hack — on the House Intelligence Committee and the House Armed Services Committee — to have this level of ignorance is astounding.
LA Congresswoman Jane Harman may be a brusque pain in the butt at times, and undoubtedly reminded incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on more than a few occasions of her intellectual credentials, but even when she is wrong, she knows what she is talking about. And, unlike Pelosi’s first alternative to Harman, Florida Congressman Alcee Hastings, she didn’t lose a federal judgeship for malfeasance in office.
Of course, let’s not forget that outgoing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was shocked by the guerilla war in Iraq, the very existence of which he denied for months. And all the other misjudgments that have led us to this preposterous situation.
** OBAMA DAY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. Media sensation Barack Obama, the freshman Illinois senator who has vaulted into the top ranks of presidential prospects, makes a highly-anticipated trip today to New Hampshire, the legendary early primary state. Along with a few thousand activists, 150 to 200 media reps are expected to be on hand as he signs copies of his best-selling book, “The Audacity of Hope,” and then speaks to a crowd of state Democrats celebrating last month’s Democratic victories.
On the strength of his polished and rousing keynote address to the 2004 Democratic National Convention, Obama has emerged as a major player in national Democratic politics. But is he for real, or is he someone famous for being famous?
He runs a distant second to Hillary Rodham Clinton in national Democratic polls, roughly tied with John Edwards and Al Gore, the latter of whom may not be running. But he has the buzz.
One major politician who I know quite a few NWN readers like thinks he is for real. He does make an impressive impression. Yet he was a state legislator less than two years ago. He’s never been in a real, competitive statewide race, much less a national campaign. Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate in mostly blue Illiniois. His first Republican opponent, millionaire Jack Ryan, was forced to drop out when records of his divorce with Star Trek star Jeri Ryan, a former Miss Illinois, were revealed. He was alleged to have forced her to go to live sex clubs with him, where of course he allegedly wanted her to perform. Ryan dropped out of the race. The Republicans then imported right-winger Alan Keyes from Maryland to run against him. It’s safe to say Obama’s never been in a real campaign.
Then there’s the question of expertise. Would America elect a president with so little national security credentials in such a dangerous time? And, of course, the biggest elephant in the room. Obama is African-American.
But he’s a very smart guy — first black president of the Harvard Law Review (I suspect he knows the difference between Sunni and Shia) — and a lot of people are excited.
** NEWSOM STRONG IN SAN FRANCISCO. As San Francisco Mayor and rising Democratic star Gavin Newsom gears up to run for re-election — you’ll recall that NWN didn’t buy his seeming reluctance as amounting to much — it seems that he is in a very strong position. A San Francisco Chronicle survey of potential opponents finds little appetite to take him on. Since Newsom has an 80% favorable rating in the City by the Bay, that’s not terribly surprising.
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What an embarassment.
OMG!
I like Obama. He’s fresh and sounds sensible.
I am afraid that Mr. Reyes is not alone in his ignorance among our leaders. Although one would expect a higher level of understanding of basic intelligence for an Intelligence Committee Chairman. Party politics strikes again.
Obama is just oozing with “It.” I haven’t seen anyone this inspiring and chrismatic on the scene since Bubba. And he seems to have some significant substance beneath the “It” factor. But the resume sucks.
I think he may well become America’s first black president, but I expect this tentative ’08 feint or run, whichever it is, is all about visibility enhancement for a serious run later on. Which will make him a Senator (or VP?) who can get face-time anytime he wants it over the next several years, and help him build a perception of experience rather than inexperience.
That’s it from the Department Of The Obvious this morning….
Bill Clinton had quite a few flaws, which is why I’ve written quite a few things critical of him.
But he had done a lot more serious work, and thinking about a new politics and policy approach, before thinking about running for president.
The rest of the Congressional Quarterly piece talks about Republicans on the House Intelligence Commitee suffering from their own amazing ignorance, President Bush not knowing that there could be a fighting between Sunni and Shia in Iraq, etc., etc.
What has Obama done?
The god news of Pinochet’s death is tempered by the realization it came about 35 years too late. I know Chileans who now feel cheated of justice.
On the other hand, he died out of power and in disgrace, his era clearly over and discredited.
Haha, who said a little vagueness goes a long way in this business.
Bill,
The fact that Pinochet died disgraced is small comfort to those whose relatives were killed by the people he controlled. And there is still a significant part of Chilean society who look on Pinochet as a hero who saved the country from “the left.” Now, there will be no public accounting.
I understand that. I’m not sure that Pinochet felt very good about things in his life ever since he was detained by the Brits for nearly two years and returned to what had been his country humiliated.
I take it that you believe in retribution. As do I.
Reyes interview:
I thought this all sounded rather familiar …this interview was conducted in Oct or earlier not since Reyes has assumed chair …the journalist wrote something similar in his very interesting OPED for the NYT in mid -Oct… (see excerpts below) At the time I put it in my “For File” of op-eds articles…in a re-read of the op-ed the writer does not mention Reyes by name although he does reference others , I assume it was because Reyes was not a key player at the time of the interview…
“Can You Tell a Sunni From a Shiite?
By JEFF STEIN
Washington
FOR the past several months, I’ve been wrapping up lengthy interviews with Washington counterterrorism officials with a fundamental question: “Do you know the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite?”
A “gotcha” question? Perhaps. But if knowing your enemy is the most basic rule of war, I don’t think it’s out of bounds. And as I quickly explain to my subjects, I’m not looking for theological explanations, just the basics: Who’s on what side today, and what does each want?
After all, wouldn’t British counterterrorism officials responsible for Northern Ireland know the difference between Catholics and Protestants? In a remotely similar but far more lethal vein, the 1,400-year Sunni-Shiite rivalry is playing out in the streets of Baghdad, raising the specter of a breakup of Iraq into antagonistic states, one backed by Shiite Iran and the other by Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states
A complete collapse in Iraq could provide a haven for Al Qaeda operatives within striking distance of Israel, even Europe. And the nature of the threat from Iran, a potential nuclear power with protégés in the Gulf states, northern Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, is entirely different from that of Al Qaeda. It seems silly to have to argue that officials responsible for counterterrorism should be able to recognize opportunities for pitting these rivals against each other.
But so far, most American officials I’ve interviewed don’t have a clue. That includes not just intelligence and law enforcement officials, but also members of Congress who have important roles overseeing our spy agencies. How can they do their jobs without knowing the basics?
My curiosity about our policymakers’ grasp of Islam’s two major branches was piqued in 2005, when Jon Stewart and other TV comedians made hash out of depositions, taken in a whistleblower case, in which top F.B.I. officials drew blanks when asked basic questions about Islam. One of the bemused officials was Gary Bald, then the bureau’s counterterrorism chief. Such expertise, Mr. Bald maintained, wasn’t as important as being a good manager………It’s not all so grimly humorous. Some agency officials and members of Congress have easily handled my “gotcha” question. But as I keep asking it around Capitol Hill and the agencies, I get more and more blank stares. Too many officials in charge of the war on terrorism just don’t care to learn much, if anything, about the enemy we’re fighting. And that’s enough to keep anybody up at night. Jeff Stein is the national security editor at Congressional Quarterly. Op-ed NYT Oct 17, 2006
Sorry, Barb, you are not going to spin this one away.
Oh, yeah, it’s Jerry Brown, many years ago, who pointed out that “A little vagueness goes a long way in this business.”
I don’t spin. I just stated when the interview was conducted. It is disgusting this sort of laziness.
I hope especially since the ISG evidently points out how little we understand the Middle east in general, that he is working hard to play catch up… You keep telling us he is a lightweight and infer he can’t do the job or at least do as good of a job as Harmon …and now Jeff Stein has verified that at best he has a lot of homework to do, and after reading the CQ interview he sounds like he did not take the questions very seriously …which is also not good…and now that money in the freezer guy is re-elected and Doolittle was re-elected…what can you do? democracy is not only messy it can be disappointing especially because it is so full of well.. far from perfect human beings…
Laziness? Referring to Reyes, I hope.
I don’t think laziness can account for that level of ignorance.
Unless he simply sleeps through Intelligence Committee meetings and doesn’t read newspapers.
Yes I was referring to Reyes. I think a lot of ignorance is based on laziness and/or bias…and no one was looking at him or testing him..etc..what amazes me is that someone could get assigned to a committee and not understand that they are obligated to take the work of that committee seriously…any committee but especially that one…
If he really is as bad a syou say…Pelosi was more than foolish to appoint him…it was a highly irresponsible act.
BTW, I kept the Stein Oped because I thought it was deeply disturbing NOT funny…so to find out that he was describing Reyes is …disturbing.
What an amazing story.
New Orleans nearly wiped off the map a year ago, their football team all but gone. But they stick around, now they win a few games this season, people say how nice it is, they win a few more.
Now they are destroying what’s supposed to be the best NFC team, the Cowboys, in Dallas, 42-17 after three quarters.
Of course, they did draft Reggie Bush because their record was so lousy last year …
Saw the “24″ prequel. It was reminicent of “Intersections in Real Time” from Season 4 of the wonderful “Babylon 5.”
Re: Reyes as Pelosi’s pick: Hey, she backed Cruz in the Recall and Phil in ’08. What were you expecting?
Re: Obama. Damn, I wish I was a US Senator. Then I could write a best-selling biography and just travel the country for no good reason other than to sell myself.
Also, Obama v. Hilary will answer an age-old saw. You know, the one on America will elect a Black President before ever electing a Woman President.
Re: “What has Obama done”? About as much (win an election), if not more than, Arnold did when he ran in the Recall.
With “Prison Break” on hiatus, and no “24″ for 35 days, I’m going to need a fix soon. I’ll try “Sleeper Cell” on Showtime.
I’ll report back soon.
Intersections In Real Time from B5. Which was that? A torture episode?
Did it have a Toyota SUV in it? A white Toyota? At night?
Maybe the question to ask in re Obama is what does he did now to build on his meteoric rise? Is he putting together a political team, having white papers on key issues drafted, working toward the next step beyond the initial feel-good part of his career, get some legislative wins under his belt, etc. He has the opportunity, is he seizing it?
No white papers so far.
That sort of rush of fame is not unlike an incredible rush of high quality cocaine.