** SAUDIS IN IRAQ? A strategist for the Saudi government, reminding that his country’s leaders warned the US not to invade, writes in an intriguing Washington Post essay that his country will have to intervene in Iraq if the US withdraws in order to protect fellow Sunnis. And, presumably, not simply hand regional Islamic supremacy to Iran.
It’s been quite a few days for the tattered Iraq policy of President George W. Bush. Last week, Iraq and Iran’s energy ministers met in Tehran to discuss Iran’s role in helping revive Iraq’s electric power grid, still disrupted after the 2003 US invasion. Then, Iraq’s president, Jalal Talabani, was delayed in flying to Tehran for a summit meeting with America’s Middle Eastern bete noire, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, by the closure of Baghdad international airport due to sectarian fighting in Iraq’s capital city. Finally, the Iraqi president made it to Tehran, where he and Ahmadinejad appeared to get along famously. It began with the Iraqi president announcing that Iraq needs Iran to rescue it and ended with Talabani announcing that the two countries have agreed to a “security accord,” details yet to be disclosed.
Meanwhile, President Bush, having flown to Jordan for his own summit with the Iraqi prime minister, was left cooling his heels. A variety of explanations were offered for why Maliki was not engaged in the scheduled summit. The two ultimately had breakfast the next day. Now this latest pronouncement from “our man in Iraq.” Not to mention the only consistent major ally on Iraq, Britain, making known its intention to substantially withdraw its forces next year.
As I wrote the other day, it is fascinating to watch a policy unravel in real time.
** EARLIEST EVER PRESIDENTIAL ANNOUNCEMENT? Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack this morning announced his candidacy for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, in a folksy Iowa event. I think this is the earliest ever formal announcement of candidacy. He will need an early start. Though a successful two-term governor, polling in his home state — which happens to be the first-in-the-nation contest for the presidential nomination — shows him in a real dogfight for contention.
Vilsack is a moderate Democrat who backs alternative fuels, such as ethanol (think Iowa corn), diodiesel, and wind power, and has chaired the centrist Democratic Leadership Council and the Democratic Governors Association. He becomes a dark horse contender in the field, which is led by New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, with former North Carolina Senator and 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards, Illinois Senator and 2004 Democratic national convention keynoter Barack Obama, and possible contender Al Gore bunched in a tie for second. Vilsack is off on tour to early contest states New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.
** Monitor computer memory prices on a daily basis.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices have crept up to $63 and $64 per barrel.
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What a total disaster Iraq has become.
Unbelievable.
“Total” may be an overstatement. Total would mean everything is a disaster in Iraq.
I can’t see Vilscak doing anything.
Uh-oh… The Russian poisoning spree, whoever is behind it, continues…
I’m starting to get the feeling that somebody in their secret service just has a thing for exotic poisons, and has to find himself a target every time he discovers a novel new toxin…
Whomever is behind it … Exactly. Assuming it’s only one.
Some early thoughts of 2006 approaching 2008:
1.) Hillary Clinton is not running — no matter how bad FOX and Roger Ailes want her to in 2008. I will stake my house on that. While I love her for her energy and brilliance, she is too polarizing and, and political professionalin many circles, recognize that she hasn’t the political skills of her husband. Thats not a slight necessarily, its just the way it is. FOX,et.al. promote her as the “most dangerous Democrat” because they know she can’t win nationally and she just can’t be sold as a true builder of consensus. She will get nailed on the war and buried under the liberal label. As a result, she won’t get out of the South and won’t be able to sell an increasingly moderate Middle America.
Plus, she is now in the majority with ALOT more power than she might have as President. But without the fun 747 jet and Camp David…
2.) Obama, while an amazing person (with a HUGE ego to match…kinda diva-esque I am told), may win Iowa or New Hampshire but would never make it through Super Tuesday. He would get crushed in the South.
3.)Edwards is a possible consensus choice for Dems. He is a Southerner, good looking, very bright and, frankly, beyond political reproach. His wife, Elizabeth, is a cancer survivor, they lost a young son tragically and, in spite of it all, their marriage is as tight as it gets. He knows issues like poverty, particularly in the South, and connects with people of every stripe. He is, at his heart, politically pragmatic and is capable of relaying the message.
On the negative side, Edwards is still without a real political portfolio on the international side. Its a HUGE drawback for him.
However, in 2008, the issues might be different when it comes to Iraq. We may be looking more to domestic and economic issues as the costs of the war come home to roost in the American economy.
4.) Vilsack is a Governor. This is a major advantage in the 2008 race. He has run a state, successfully managed a budget and still managed to keep his political nose clean. No mean feat — even in Iowa.
However, Vilsack inspires no one. He is, at his heart, a Midwesterner who works harder and smarter but doesn’t provide voters the “ummph” that they are looking for in a candidate — particularly a Democratic one.
You can say the same for Evan Bayh. Brilliant, a former chief executive of a state (Indiana) and a current senator with a family political pedigree a mile wide and ten miles deep. But, again, Evan is boring, disengaged and lacks the warmth we really crave in our leadership.
Its tough to see Bayh getting anything but a POSSIBLE VP nod.
Honestly, I think the Dems need a state governor to win. People identify more with a state leader than a national one. In most cases, they view states as microcosms of America at large. California is certainly a great example of that. Obviously, a great choice would have been Warner — but he’s gone.
And don’t even think about Bill Richardson. This guy has more skeletons in his closet of any politician since Lyndon Johnson. His antics, while never revealed, would embarass Clinton. The RNC would have a really fun time with ol’ Bill.
So, where does that leave the Dems? Well, ironically enough with another Southerner Governor. Governor Mike Earley from North Carolina would be a great choice (he has won four times for constitutional office in a red state) but no one has mentioned his name yet. North Carolina is, like Georgia, become the center of a New South. Its focus on technology across the board, including biotech, has changed the political face of the state in so many ways.
Earley is a “NASCAR” Governor (meaning that he has literally crashed a NASCAR vehicle at the Charlotte Speedway)with strong sense of people and is a great campaigner.
He would win in Iowa for being a centrist,a very bright guy who, while not having the dynamism of a Clinton, has the wisdom of fifty-plus years that Clinton didn’t have when running for President. He has sharp political mind and connects very well with both sides of the aisle.
I have seen the guy in action and it makes me wonder why in the heck no one is talking about him.
Well, thanks, we heard it here first.
This is the first time I’ve heard him mentioned as a presidential prospect.
I’m afraid that the recent and painful example of Mr. Angelides opining about Iraq demonstrated the problem of a state type politician attempting to be involved in geopolitics. America is in the middle of a complicated war.
Most governors know nothing whatsoever about such things. Democratic governors are especially weak, few having served in the armed forces, all of them used to the politics of pork.
If the DTS (me) voters need to ask “WHO”? Then, the Rep. Mod’s will have the advantage in 2008. The Dem PR machine better get to work…now.
CADTS, there is a contradiction in your proposal. You write “Edwards is still without a real political portfolio on the international side. Its a HUGE drawback for him.” But then you suggest a governor with, apparently, no international profile at all. He’s an intriguing possibility. After all, how well was Clinton known generally in 1990. But no candidate in either party, so far, has much in the way of international experience. It’s not a disqualifying point for Edwards.
Thanks for your take, CADTS!
I can’t say I agree with it though…dangerous as it is to disagree with the resident guru.
The type of team Senator Clinton put together is not one you use to win against a pushover Senatorial challenger…and she is keeping them all on through year’s end. As someone who knows campaigns, how often does that happen?
However, recent comments (today?) from the Chair of the Iowa Democratic Party indicate she’s not building the type of organization you need to prevail at the caucuses. He proposes (like yourself) that she isn’t running with the threat of Obama coming on. Perhaps she’s just “ceding it to Vilsack” for show to get out of the type of retail politicking that she would not do well at there.
I also think Obama would do better than you allow. Demographics favor him in the Southern states where you write him off. 50% of South Carolina primary voters are African American, I have recently read. His early opposition to the war and outsider cred (which he still maintains) could bring along a bit of the Deaniac magic.
Will the Dems go back to a Governor after a Senator in 2004? If they do, what the Hell was Mark Warner thinking? A lot like Easley in NC, he’s a Dem who won strong and provided coattails to a successor in formerly Red Virginia.
I’m still quite disappointed at his departure from the race.
Well, none of the presidential candidates have international credentials.
Except for the frontrunners, of course.
John McCain is an experienced international figure. He’s probably dealt with most world leaders. He’s a war hero. He was on Senate Armed Services a long time and chaired the subcommittee on AirLand, which is the principal US battlespace doctrine.
Rudy Giuliani was mayor of New York and is regarded as a hero of 9/11. New York along with San Francisco is the most cosmopolitan of American cities and is a much more serious power center. He probably has dealt with many world leaders.
Hillary Clinton is a senator, of course, more to the point, she was first lady and a principal partner in Bill Clinton’s presidency. She knows everybody.
Then there’s Wesley Clark, who commanded NATO, which is a lot bigger deal than being governor of a midsized state. He led the victory in the Bosnian War.
I hadn’t heard much about Earley before. Thanks for the pointer.
I definitely agree about the lack of excitement emanating from Bayh and Vilsack. Though the pickups of three seats in Indiana certainly made me think Bayh might be worth at least a second glance, and could be a VP candidate…
I’m also interested in Schweitzer (MT) or Sebelius (KS) as possible VP candidates. I also still hope maybe Warner might get put into the VP slot, since he’s bowed out of the top race. (On the other hand, if we don’t win in ’08 and Warner had no part of that race, he could run for a Senate seat in ’08 or Governor again in ’09, and could then run for Pres in ’12. But that’s a long way off…)
I think Edwards might not get hit too hard about the experience issue if he had a VP who had more foreign-policy and military credentials — much like Bush ran with Cheney as his policy wise-man. (OK, so it’s not a great analogy, considering how ludicrously out-of-touch Cheney has turned out to be. And, of course, foreign policy didn’t look nearly so important, eight years ago.) I like Clark — he has the same kind of populist voice that served people like Webb, Jon Tester, and Sherrod Brown — and he seems to have gotten more polished than he was in the past… But, if we’re speculating wildly, Webb seems like an even better option. I’d regret pulling him out of the Senate so soon, but on the other hand, he’s actually won an election (unlike Clark), and has obvious bipartisan appeal, having served in Reagan’s cabinet.
Of the candidates without international standing, Edwards with Clark or Edwards with Webb.
CADTS: Earley is a “NASCAR” Governor
CADTS,
Is it Governor Mike Easley or Earley? I had never heard of him and I just googled and nothing came up so I googled just Guv of N Carolina and EASLEY came up?
On Easley,
a quick blog check have reports that Easley is going after Elizabeth Dole’s Senate seat…and at least one mentioned him as a possible prez candidate but it looked very right- wing so I did not open it….
Thanks Barbara for the correction…I meant Easley.
Good catch, Barbara.
Heck…no one understands typos better than me…I don’t know about you but my mind works to fast to type in these little boxes…
Is Easley someone who can self fund himself or doe she have to raise money…where is all this money coming from for all these candidates? …I hope Labor supports Edwards…I think they should…
Is Easley someone who can self fund himself or doe she have to raise money
Now I KNOW easley is a guy!not a “she” that is another thing my finger does it slurrs letters and puts them with other words!
That should of course read Does HE have to raise money? and who is going to give someone no one has ever heard of money?
I looked at the clown show called California “Majority” Report. Is that propaganda site dead? This blog has a hundred times as many comments.
Larry,you make a good point and it does seem outwardly to be a contradiction.
However, I guess I should say that I equate the lack of Edwards’ international or crisis experience in a chief executive spot is a critical problem for him.
In other words, dealing with crisis as a Governor or President is a very tough spot to be in. It often hardens you and gives you experience that are transferable. As a one-term Senator, that is a hard sell for voters if he goes up against a Mitt Romney type of candidate.
As for Easley, he has been a statewide elected,as an Attorney General — burnishing his crime and punishment experience — and as a Governor. Every day this guy deals with a crisis in his job.
As a result, I think he is probably better prepared to be President. John still has a tough time convincing voters the same holds true for him.
Barbara, I think Easley is really thinking about Dole’s seat because no no else in that state can beat her. Although, the state is becoming more blue/purple every day.
You know, while everyone is jumping for Romney, my deepest concern is that the Reeps would nominate a Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has a great story, he is southern, a born and bred Christian right winger, fiscal conservative who will mask that right wing ideology with his natural folksiness and love of good ol fashion southern rock. In fact, Huckabee performed in New Hampshire this past summer as a bassist with a traveling Arkansas rock band.
Huckabee, with that weight loss program he went on and his advocacy against childhood obesity, is a really dangerous candidate who sells well with the conservative base. Plus, and I have met him, Mike Huckabee is a pretty nice guy and he really gets the psychology of the voters.
Romney may look good — but he ain’t that bright intellectually. He didn’t win the Mass Governor’s race as opposed to the other side throwing it away.
The other problem for Romney is that,as a Mormon, he wouldn’t (and isn’t) considered a true religious conservative. Indeed, most of the Christian/Catholic community believe, fairly or unfairly, that Mormonism is essentially a cult-like organization.
Let me also add that Romney, in a real race, would get crushed. He just doesn’t have the intellectually capacity to go after anyone on the Democratic side and not look like an idiot. ANYONE on the Democratic side would embarass him in a debate and make him look like what he is, a good looking guy in an empty suit.
Guiliani is neither liked nor trusted by the conservative base — as a result, he may do well in Iowa and NH, he will get crushed in the South. And while he is popular nationally, people won’t be able to vote for this guy as President. They love (as I do) how he stood up and took command of the situation on 9/11. He kept that city together in spite of the disaster unfolding around him. It was legendary in the annals of American history. However, the world is much different since 9/11 and the leadership required needs more than a Rudy Guiliani.
As far as Governor Schweitzer, I don’t see him running. He hates Washington DC with a passion. Friends of mine in Montana have said that while Schweitzer is truly flattered, he doesn’t think he is willing to sell himself to the party as anything less than what he is — a conservative Democrat.
Now Sebelius is very interesting. Probably the most brilliant Governor no one has ever heard outside of us political junkies. Now SHE would definitely sell in Iowa and would do well. I believe Kerry had her in his “personal” top three of his final VP choices.
Obama is the rock star of the moment. But, sad as it is to say, the Super Tuesday primaries based most in the South would be his downfall. In both NC and SC, Obama would do well. But looking down the road, Democratic voters, after 8 years of the Bush Administration, want someone who can not only win the primaries but win the general. Obama is most assuredly not there yet.
Easley cannot self-fund as far as I know.
Unless America is in an isolationist mode, I’m not sure that being a governor is going to be such a plus. Especially since the governors aren’t really top tier contenders.
I do agree with the doubts about Obama. As attractive a candidate as he is, he is primarily “famous for being famous.”
However, however one gets it, fame is a highly useful commodity. Now we see what he does with it.
Not to get off topic, but a non-random article caught my eye:
REUTERS: U.S. warns of possible Qaeda financial cyber attack
Yet another “I told you so” moment for Dick Clark. Not he of the “New Year’s Rockin’ Eve” but the Clinton counter-terrorism expert was Cassandra’d his way out of favor and a job in the Bush administration in the months leading up to and time directly after 9/11.
Tommy Boy, all security-related comments are on topic at NWN from here on out.
I read California Majority Report every day. I like it. I would never comment anywhere but here…because I trust Mr. Bradley…there are so many people attached to that site….it probably inhibits many party activists and consultants from commenting…especially if they want to remain anonymous. I read California Majority Report every day. I like it and it is much better post-election. I would never comment anywhere but here…because I trust Mr. Bradley..I can’t imagine why anyone would want to leave a comment trail all over the internet at different blogs….In the case of CMR, there are so many people attached to it working and knowing politicians ….it probably inhibits many party activists and consultants from commenting…especially if they want to remain anonymous, because in the end as Mr. Bradley has warned …you can always find out who someone is if you want to…but I bet DEMS read it …I opened up Hotsoup when it came on …but now I never read it …there was too much there ..it was too busy …same with PJmedia…..Nope, NWN is perfect! like our Mr. Bradley!!!
I don’t care if our next Guv is a Guv, Senator, Mayor private sector …just want that person to be able kickstart this country!
I read an column today in SF Chronicle …I forgot the indiviual’s (woman) name…but I agree with her completely…it was all about the Iraq (Baker Hamilton) Commission report due next week…the fact that all the ususal suspects were collected (same background education age, inside beltway resumes) to solve Iraq…the author made the point of why not shake things up a bit…why couldn’t this group have been more more diverse…anyway…I am feeling very politically restless as we go into this presidential election!
Gosh I am going out to dinner now I am doubling up paragraphs! It is this box it hides things! Toodles…
It is still cold here and I love it!
I think it is fun to bundle up!
Tommy Boy I’m glad you posted that…I was going to make that point last night to you in reference to Condi but decided against it….you were trying to blame her and my counter point was she listened to her staff and that person was on it and very voiciferous in his thinking and his opinions….
CADTS you’ve made some great points on many supposed candidates for the 08 race….I think Early has a big future ahead of him no matter who he takes on and what he runs for…I will disagree with you about Rudy but that is based on my own personal experience…I don’t think he’s automatically toast in the South either and certainly not in Texas or Florida…there is no perfect candidate but there are a few on both sides who will give us a good race to watch
Yeah, all those important Demorats must be scared to vote in the polls at California Plurality Report, too. lol
The NY Times is how reporting that Hezbollah will occupy the center of Beirut beginning Friday with a “huge sit-in” to pressure the government to resign. If successful Hezbollah leader Nasrallah will run Lebanon….(It’s dawn there now so when we wake up we will know how large and serious this is)
Re:NWN:” SAUDIS IN IRAQ”
Thank you for providing the link to the Wa Post Oped. I think it is very important piece and I hope everyone takes the time to read it. I had read it yesterday online…and this op-ed is the reason I questioned in my post yesterday the DEMs advising a special envoy…after reading it I just do not see an American brokering anything here between the Sunnis and Shias in Iraq.
PERHAPS the Saudis should do something now quickly, they may not be able to wait for America to get our act togther….especially if Lebanon falls totally under Nasrallah’s control…
C-Span 2 Dec 1, @ 6:00 am our time:”Pentagon Briefing From Iraq (9am) – LIVE”
Barb, I already gave you the advice.
“Barb, I already gave you the advice.”
I don’t understand ?—the boxes? I saw that…I am trying to slow down…it’s not really my nature ..but I am trying…
If Easley ran for Pres, maybe Edwards could run to replace him as NC-Gov… Especially if we end up with a wise-man VP candidate, that would line Edwards up to run in ’16. He’d be what, in his early 60s then?
Re: The text box, Barbara — one thing I do sometimes is write my text in a big notepad window (or even Word, which can be spellchecked), and then copy-paste into the box.
Also, as for why people make themselves non-anonymous — well, I, for one, try to be open about my own biases and political attachments, because I think people will take me more seriously if I’m honest about such things and try to offer a complete profile.
And, of course, there’s the narcissism angle — plenty of people just like the idea of being heard. (Or read.)
Narcisissm has absolutely nothing to do with politics.
Absolutely not. lol