With just one week to go until the election, the shapes of things to come in California are coming further into focus. While Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Governor Jerry Brown enjoy wide leads in their respective races for governor and attorney general, and share a number of important views, more closely contested statewide races are becoming more defined.
Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jerry Brown share important views.
Private tracking polls in the Democratic and Republican parties show the hotly contested races for lieutenant governor, controller, and secretary of state still within the margin of polling error. But in the race for state insurance commissioner, moderate Republican Steve Poizner has taken a statistically significant lead in the high single digits over his Democratic rival, Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante.
Poizner, a super-rich Silicon Valley entrepreneur, is heavily outspending Bustamante, who is also a former Assembly speaker, racking up newspaper endorsements around the state and the backing of consumer advocate Harvey Rosenfield. On Sunday, Poizner even picked up the endorsement of La Opinion, the state’s leading Spanish language newspaper. Since Bustamante is one of the nation’s highest ranking Latino politicians, that was especially striking.
But Bustamante was wiped out by Schwarzenegger when he ran for governor in the 2003 recall election, resorting to taking millions in illegal donations from casino tribes in the campaign, a move which damaged his reputation. And Poizner, a great favorite of Schwarzenegger’s, has a good profile for a statewide California election, even for a regulatory office generally regarded as natural Democratic turf.
The other three highly competitive statewide races remain just that. The Democrats and Republicans vying for lieutenant governor, state controller, and secretary of state all remain in statistical dead heats.
In the race for controller, a high-ranking source says Republican Tony Strickland is getting nearly a million dollars more in help from Intuit, the tax software firm that had already spent a million on his behalf. On the other hand, another group of casino tribes is said to be moving to counter the help Strickland is getting from the “Team 2006” casino tribes with money for Democrat John Chiang.
Schwarzenegger and Brown are not in dead heats. The current moderate Republican governor and former Democratic governor now lead in their respective races for governor and state attorney general by landslide margins.
Brown’s lead over Republican Chuck Poochigian is wider than that of Schwarzenegger over Democrat Phil Angelides.
In addition to having near locks on the two most powerful state constitutional offices, Schwarzenegger and Brown — as seen in the NWN video above — both speak to many of the same themes and issues.
These are themes which define an emerging independent spirit that could transcend the conventional boundaries of the two parties.
In separate appearances, the current governor of California and former action superstar and the current Oakland mayor and former governor of California each speaks of the value and virtues of bipartisanship. Each focuses on the future and California’s role in defining it, with heavy emphasis on Washington’s failure in looking to the future.
Schwarzenegger and Brown both strongly emphasize the fight against climate change and global warming and the promise of stem cell research, and California’s leading role on those issues. Each sees California now and in the future as the seedbed of new technologies that have in the past and will in the future create new industries.
Both eschew the Democrat/Republican hyperpartisanship that has defined the current political era.
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| Comments (29) |
Bill,
Damn fine write. The next week will prove to be very interesting even for those of us who have already voted.
Having Arnold and Jerry both in Sacramento should make this a very different kind of city. And it’s too early for any thought deeper than that!
I didn’t vote for Jerry Brown when he ran for President in my state primary in 1992. He seems like he is making much sense again.
I knew Jerry Brown was winning by more than Schwarzeneger!
NWN:”Brown’s lead over Republican Chuck Poochigian is wider than that of Schwarzenegger over Democrat Phil Angelides”
So what is this Brown/Pooch poll that is giving him such a lead?…you are always saying it is important to know if the poll is registered voters? likely voters ?w/leaners? without leaners?…
If this poll is likely voters without/leaners…or even with leaners ..Why can’t you conclude that this translates into good news for the rest of the DEM ticket, but especially Chiang and Garamendi who are not running against mod Reeps but hyper Conservative Reeps…why would any voter voting for Brown then go on to vote for two hyper- conservative REEPs for either Lt Guv or Controller…JC and JG must be going to make it? Where/How am I wrong? …I don’t like polls …they get me all nervous ever sense the Westly experience last spring!
I just read headlines in R & T. NOT even one article about PHIL a week before the election! A major story on Mc Clintock …Moreover, no articles about Chiang (except Sac Bee AdWatch) and Garamendi’s press conferences yesterday! (on Intuit/Stem Cell)…It’s like the press has decided the election story already and it is how the Dem wave did not hit California due to Arnold and his nifty nimble Campaign team!
Excellent.
“Both eschew the Democrat/Republican hyperpartisanship that has defined the current political era.” Here’s hoping that these two will serve as a bellwether for the rest of the nation’s political candidates as we move toward the ’08 presidential season. Seems also to me like a coming opportunity in Nevada and beyond for NWN to similarly set an example to the legacy media folks on how to raise the level of the dialog beyond the partisan.
Barbara, tracking polls at this stage are of likely voters and usually include leaners.
I can’t conclude that Brown’s huge lead means the other down ballot Dems win any more than I can conclude that Schwarzenegger’s huge lead means the other down ballot Reps win.
Phil Angelides is the still the Dem name at the top of the ticket.
But isn’t super or hyper partisanship fun? Look how much fun the Angerlides campaign was! lol
But Bustamante kept his promise to lose weight…
Thanks, Hap, that will be part of the mission going forward.
The shape of things to come? Battlestar Galactica?
I’m stunned that labor hasn’t put more money against Strickland, since the Controller sits on a board that can reduce or eliminate retirement benefits to its members. Didn’t we just mobilize an entire Special Election on this issue?
And shouldn’t be hard to beat the guy — he’s more crooked than the track at Brands Hatch.
Boy, labor might spend the next four years playing some serious D because of the misplayed hand this election.
Kirk, the title of today’s column is actually from H.G. Wells, not Battlestar Galactica.
I mean, it’s a very good TV show, but if they used that title they got it from Wells. It’s a classic.
Bill Brasky, if I did any more head scratching I would start losing hair.
“2006 CDP Post-Election Analysis sponsored by Rogaine”
Has Emily’s list dropped a significant IE on the only woman running for statewide office yet?
With the entire Choice Community mobilized again on parental notification this election, you would think it could only help Bowen in a tight, low turnout race.
It is surprising that there is not much more activity for the other Democratic candidates. I wonder how much money the trade unions and the party apparatus spent on Mr. Angelides’ benighted venture.
Do remember that I told you that the Alliance for a Better California was a fable. Yet, where is all that money that they did NOT spend on Mr. Angelides?
Mr. Brasky,
As much as I agree that Strickland needs to be defeated, there is no action the CalPERS Board of Administration can take that will reduce retirement benefits. None.
They might support legislation that would impact future retirees, but they can take no indepedent action to impact that.
As for current memembers of the system and current retirees…while not a lawyer, do believe they fall under the category of vested property rights (or some term like that). In essence, once given it’s hard as hell or impossible to take away.
Bye-bye
Sacto Solon,
It is my understanding that current unretired members of CalPERS are legally entitled to their pensions as promised. However, those members who have not retired are not guaranteed their health benefits in retirement until they actually use them. I am unclear on whether CalPERS could change future retiree health benefits without legislative ratification. But if that is the case the impending application of the FASB rule on government retiree health benefit liabilities could provide a very interesting prod to action and a very disturbing challenge to public employee unions.
“the title of today’s column is actually from H.G. Wells, not Battlestar Galactica.” I was thinkng about the Yardbirds, which doesn’t appear to cast me in the brightest light.
Will time make men more wise?
Controller Race /On Pensions
What Sac Solon said is correct re:pensions/Calpers…Mike, this Controller race is not about pensions or health benefits…it is about much MORE…
Strickland will have enormous influence on Tax and Fiscal policy, Human Resource policy, environmental policy, Business law, and education…and as I said before, for all his actions he will have a very articulate spoke person if McClintock is Lt Guv as he will use that office to promote and educate the public on his fiscal philosophy
This state will be taken in a very different direction in fiscal policy, if Strickland is elected because the Controller office will provide him with the tools to make real changes…and if Strickland AND McClintock are elected we will see them attempt to remake the state with not just the fiscal policy tools allocated to the Controller but Tom will use the Lt Guv office to advance his (and Strickland’s) fiscal policy and philosophy to win over the hearts and minds of voters.
I am preparing mentally for this ..while at the same time praying for high voter turn out John C’s and John G’s sake…I just checked PPIC is predicting once again, low voter turnout…
Hap, you are probably permanently transfixed by those ringing Yardbirds electric guitar chords.
Mike,
I’m not sure on retiree health benefits. Do know that they are not carved in stone. However not sure who has the power to alter retiree health benefits, but think it might well be the CalPERS Board of Administration.
To all the points Barbara makes about the Controller’s function as Controller, my concerns deal with the office as an office. It needs a stable, steady, hand for at least four years. It’s truly something it hasn’t have in 12 years.
Having watched Tony Strickland in the Assembly, I don’t think he’s the man for the job. And it truly amazes me that we don’t look at what someone did in their last post when seeking higher office. All of that seems lost the instance someone tosses their hat in the ring. Mr. Strickland did little in the time he served.
However, being a life-long Democrat, I recognize that my views are biased. But that’s the way these old eyes sees it.
Sac Solon:Controller Office:It needs a stable, steady, hand for at least four years. It’s truly something it hasn’t have in 12 years.
I think Westly has been a very good Controller! Gray Davis was also a good Controller, in the sense that he understood to allow talented experienced bureaucrats run the operations and kept his politics confined to his executive office. ..this office like all large gov agencies are run by seasoned civil servants who understand the mandate of the office and can do their jobs whether it is a R or D at the helm…even Connell who made the ENTIRE office totally about her own political ambition did not tamper with the direction of fiscal policy …the difference this time, and this is important, is you have a person in Strickland, whose fiscal agenda and philosophy is DRAMATICALLY in opposition to the Democrats …so with that comes very very very different and even new workloads and priorities…actually, I could make a good argument that Strickland and Mc Clintock’s fiscal philosophy is ALSO in opposition to the Governor..in any event, I am holding out hope that Brown’s lead if really significant translates into pushing Garamendi and Chiang over the finishing line…otherwise, its transition time for all! and I dovnot just mean employees of Controller, Sbe and BOE but also legislature and Dept of Finance….
Jerry Brown’s lead is EXTREMELY significant. However, that does not mean it translates, as I have mentioned once or twice, because he is not running for governor.
He is famous, the others are not.
Except for Arnold, who is more famous, and that translates some the other way.
Hi All,
I found this site via a link at Rough and Tumble. I have been enjoying both Bill’s insider coverage of the key constitutional races, as well as the reasoned dialog from other readers.
I don’t know if federal races are verboten here, but I saw today CPR is calling Pombo v. McNerney a tossup. This seems amazing — does anybody have insight into the underlying trend in this race?
I know that Pombo is narrowly behind now. Doolittle is still somewhat ahead.
I’m covering other federal races in other states, and would be covering the Senate race in California.
If there were a race.
Steve H., regarding Pombo v. McNerney race and Doolittle/Brown …since you are new you may have not met Sooth yet..Sooth is very wise and he said that unless something changes dramatically in the political climate the Reps are toast…Mr. Bradley said McNerney has a better chance than Brown in winning…but I always take Sooth’s side in things….regardless, if we do it in California or not …the DEMS have the HOUSE! CIRA 2007!
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