With campaign finance reports showing an edge for Republicans in state races not involving Democrats Bill Lockyer or Jerry Brown, the focus shifts to independent expenditure efforts to save most down ballot statewide Democrats. One potential source is the prison guards union, which highly informed sources say will not run TV ads helping trailing Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides.
California Correctional Peace Officers Association (CCPOA) officials did not comment, but these informed sources say the long anticipated TV campaign blasting Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will not occur. In August, the union ran a hard-hitting ad, seen here, on a limited basis in selected markets.
It was viewed as a shot across the governor’s bow, and as a preview of the sort of tough and potentially effective advertising he and his team could anticipate if the union backed Angelides, which it went on to do. The union bought $5 million of TV advertising time for the last two weeks of the campaign (some of which it has already given up) and said it could all go to helping Angelides by attacking Schwarzenegger. Indeed, there were intimations of much more, perhaps $10 million to $15 million, and Team Arnold braced itself accordingly.
But Schwarzenegger was not intimidated and the stalled contract negotiations between his administration and the prison guards union, which turned in large part on union influence in prison management, did not move forward. With their contract in limbo, union leaders opted to endorse Angelides, with whom the union has had a longstanding relationship. It was while Angelides was state Democratic chairman in the early 1990s that the party pursued a fateful alliance with the CCPOA. He and his political director, Bob Mulholland, formed a working relationship with then CCPOA chief Don Novey. This alliance reached its ultimate fruition in the administration of former Governor Gray Davis, who was elected with the help of a large CCPOA independent expenditure campaign and granted his backers a highly lucrative, and ultimately very controversial, contract.
However, with Schwarzenegger holding a big lead — forget what Angelides campaign officials said yesterday about the deficit being in single digits, that is not what private Democratic polling shows — and with the union itself at the center of controversy in a federal court report on the prisons crisis, the guards union had an important decision to make. Make like the charge of the light brigade, or avoid further enmity, conserve resources, and perhaps redeploy them.
It is to that redeployment of resources that down ballot Democratic candidates look with hope. As well they might, for the Republican side has mostly gotten the jump on the Democrats in terms of party and independent expenditure help for the down ballot.
Until recently, the Democratic Party and organized labor have been preoccupied with propping up the Angelides candidacy. With their money, Angelides actually outspent Schwarzenegger on the air over the past month. But, despite being outspent, Schwarzenegger was not outgunned, and nothing changed in the race other than the increasingly impending end of the campaign.
In the down ballot races, prospective Attorney General Jerry Brown faces a Republican who is all but out of money. Prospective Treasurer Bill Lockyer faces a Republican who never actually conducted a campaign. They’re the two candidates with the most cash on hand. But the other four Democrats all face Republicans with financial advantages. They’re hoping the prison guards union can help redress those imbalances.
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Coming to their senses in California?
My guess is that Garamendi would be the recipient of most of the CCPOA support to which Bill refers.
I will be very interesting to see how the CCPOA controvery plays out int he federal court.
That’s the last of it for Angelides. Good call on the Angelides crowd lying about the polls. They’re pathetic.
Maybe now Garamendi and Chiang and Bowen will have a real chance.
I do hear John Garamendi’s name but don’t have confirmation on that.
“That’s the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper.”
What is that from?
I am not so sure as Bill that there has not been a secret deal cut with CCPOA on their next contract.
It’s T.S. Elliot. The correct quote is “This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper.”
Mr. Bradley:”I do hear John Garamendi’s name but don’t have confirmation on that.”
Well that makes sense..if polling is still saying these races are still a jump ball…then he has a tougher race than Chiang…
I do not see how Strickland wins… unless every DTS and Dem voting for Arnold,votes for him and you know that is just NOT going to happen…plus, he will get some cross-over from moderate Reeps and Reep voters in Asian American community…
Hmm, JT, you “are not so sure as I am that there has not been a secret deal cut with CCPOA for their next contract.”
Hedged conspiratorialism, I like it.
I think the CCPOA guys really don’t like Arnold. I think they preferred to get after him. I don’t get a copacetic vibe there. But that’s just me.
Contra Costa Times endorsed Strickland today…I have to keep remembering it is a Post Prop 82 voting world in California…the DEMS are coming out in large numbers to vote ….I hope..right?aren’t they? Where are some reliable polls on these down ticket races?
“But in the end, we think state government needs a controller who will stir things up, forcing government and its agencies to be more fiscally responsible. That’s why we recommend Tony Strickland for controller.”I
Oh, maybe Strickland can win …
Bill: I hear that State Auditor is releasing Reiner Commission report next week. any thoughts on your formerly favorite subject?
The announcer in the CCPOA ad sounds like the Saw III villian Jigsaw played by Tobin Bell. Bill, how about giving us a review of this film? Tobin was great as the military academy guy in Sopranos too. YouTube: Saw III Trailer
There is no logic to attacking Arnold if he is sure to be governor. What’s the point in pissing him off?
Barbara – My guess is Angelides will cause a very low turnout among Dems.
Why is the Angelides campaign still sending out this con job with that dumb new ad?
Dear Ann,
On November 8th, don’t you want to wake up knowing you did all you could to elect Democrat Phil Angelides as our next Governor of California?
In a race this close, there is no room for regret. That’s why we need your help now.
Yesterday we launched a new TV ad that highlights the kind of Governor Phil Angelides will be. We need to make sure ALL Californians see this ad. To do it we need to raise $6,160 more to reach our $100,000 online goal by October 31st.
Click here to do your part – donate $30, $50, or $100 to help put our new ad on the air.
We’ve all been working our hearts out on this campaign. And we won’t stop until the polls close on November 7th.
Your support in these final 11 days will make all of the difference.
Sincerely,
Cathy Calfo, Angelides 2006
Campaign Manager
Believe it or not, Matt, I have been sitting on a juicy Rob Reiner story for months.
Ann,
Maybe your funding his next project or maybe it’s a form of unemployment insurance.
Athlonguy:Barbara – My guess is Angelides will cause a very low turnout among Dems”
I know that is the reason given by all these consultants for all this waste of time and energy on Phil’s campaign…to the neglect of the rest of the ticket…
but I think Prop 87 could potentially get the DEM base out…and the environmental justice advocates are hard at work in minority communities to turn out voters for Prop 84 and 87 …
So I think the Dem base will vote …there is a “big picture” here to be enthusiastic about …if only the Dem leadership/consultants would address it…
JLAC/Reiner/Audit Release…
Oct. 31 is an “estimated release date”….
“2006-114 California Children and Families Commission October 31, 2006″
“The State Auditor shall release the completed audit report to the Governor, Legislature, members of the Joint Legislative Audit Committee, and the requestor”
I wonder if this will happen? ..If the findings are negative, regarding administrative /oversight issues of First Five Commission,this would not help passage of Prop 86 …..and even perhaps 87, with any undecided voters who have not voted on these props already via absentee ballots…
I am reposting (with some tweaks and bad spelling corrected) at Bill suggestion a post I made just now to one of yesterday’s threads. Bill felt it was relevant to this thread (which is current) since it deals with downticket:
Poochigian new radio ad is edgier, goes for the undocumented criminals angle–promises to deport them after they serve their sentences and complains Brown is soft on this. As Bill notes, radio alone doesn’t win elections in the 21st century. Plus isn’t trying to shore up support in your base this late a bad sign?
I touch screen voted last night. How tedious to work through all the offices, measures, etc. But I slogged to the end and am relieved for me the election is over. But I still have to watch the ads until the 7th.
At least I took satisfaction at saying no to term extensions for L.A. Councilmembers (Measure R). And voting yes for the bonds and transportation sales tax fix (Props 1A-1E).
The CCPOA won’t be helping Bowen – they endorsed McPherson.
“McPherson has shown exceptional leadership and integrity as Secretary of State – leading California through a difficult transition in voting technology, and restoring trust and confidence to this office”, said CCPOA President Mike Jimenez. “His commitment to the people he serves is commendable… He has our complete support.”
Bill – You follow things pretty closely. At any point has Jerry Brown taken a public position on Gil Cedillo’s repeated efforts to have legislation signed into law granting drivers licenses to illegal aliens? I can’t seem to locate an answer…? Thanks.
Jon
To my knowledge, which is hardly encyclopedic, he is neutral.
I would personally not be surprised if he were to follow Governor Schwarzenegger’s lead on that. The governor’s position is the official policy of the State of California. In some ways, Jerry Brown will be the governor’s lawyer.
Incidentally, the Survey USA robopoll, which the Angelides campaign and boosters used to brandish like a silver cross against all the other evidence, now has Schwarzenegger up, 55-37.
Oddly enough, they’re not mentioning that.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=4b46c51b-9a26-4991-8d4a-c7e9f8da61a0
I do not know of any prison guards in the state of California? I know there are Correctional Officers, would this be the group you speak of? If so, please have the consideration to use the correct terminology when referring to these state peace officers.
People who work as guards in a prison are prison guards.
The ONLY term regarding which you will EVER hear a CCPOA member complain of politically incorrect terminology…
PC prison guards, puh-leeze. lol
You got to be kidding me, Correctional Officers instead of prison guards? So do I call the garbage man a sanitation engineer, is an “F” in school now called deferred success? Gimme a break and quit trying to make PC terms for everything. So now the USS Angerlides has hit rock bottom and even the prison guards, that’s right PRISON GUARDS are jumping ship. I would’ve liked to see an administration stand up to the union and actually implement changes to better the prison system. Let’s see if it get’s better on Schwarz’s second term.
You should have seen how I was slammed when I called illegal immigration “illegal immigration.”
I’m such a racist, you know.
I always use “illegal immigration” when I argue for CIRA…because who am I arguing with but people who believe that is the correct term..I learned along time ago they stop listening to you or fold their arms in disgust as soon as you say undocumented or some other PC term…I have changed a lot of people’s minds on CIRA just because I use the term and they keep listening to my arguements for the need to a citizenship track…a road from illegal to legal residency status…anyway,I think it is a badge of honor…people risking so much, working so hard to come here to better their lives and their children…