** A new LA Times poll for tomorrow’s paper shows all down ballot Democrats running statewide other than Bill Lockyer and Jerry Brown to be in very tight races. Attorney General Lockyer, who faces no serious opposition in the race for state treasurer, leads his Republican opponent 50% to 26%. Former Governor and current Oakland Mayor Brown, who has just been lambasted by a couple million in ads by his opponent for state attorney general, state Senator Chuck Poochigian and the Republican Party, leads 51% to 34%. All the other candidates are in tight races.
Senate Dianne Feinstein leads her Republican opponent, former state Senator Dick Mountjoy, 54% to 36%. Interestingly enough, Feinstein’s 18-point lead over Mountjoy is virtually identical to Brown’s lead over Poochigian. While Poochigian is spending a big chunk of his money in an effort to show real movement in the polls, Mountjoy’s campaign consists of an answering machine in his house. Yet both trail by the same margin.
** NWN has learned that the Phil Angelides for Governor campaign has sent a letter to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger demanding that he release all those audio tapes on the Governor’s Office computer system by October 4th. Or else, they will. You’ll recall the infamous backfiring tape flap earlier in the month. Using a cyber trick that Democratic spinners couldn’t explain for an agonizing period of time, Angelides opposition researchers surreptitiously came up with a tape of a private Schwarzenegger discussion with top staffers in which he mused about ethnology. Which they then leaked to the Los Angeles Times, which promptly slapped it on the paper’s front page. With the treasurer’s Iraq gambit falling flat — see this morning’s column on marginal events and absent allies — we’re going down that road again.
At the time, of course, the Times presented the tape as the product of enterprise journalism, not something slipped to them by Schwarzenegger’s opponent. And the Angelides campaign, in the person of campaign manager Cathy Calfo, expressed surprise and alarm about the move by its research director and primary campaign communications director. Calfo said neither she nor Angelides had known anything about it, a statement met with disbelief by a great many name Democrats, and that they were dismayed and would look to make personnel moves. A few days later, Angelides defended what his senior staffers had done, without his knowledge, that is, and tried unsuccessfully to focus attention back on Schwarzenegger’s comments, which had been largely dismissed by other top Democrats.
Meanwhile, the California Highway Patrol is investigating the incident. It’s not clear that threatening to release materials at issue in an investigation is a particularly clever move. It’s not at all clear that revisiting this fiasco is a clever move for the Angelides campaign. I would venture to guess, shall we say, it is not.
But when a campaign goes south, it goes south. And various polls show the treasurer’s Iraq gambit a clear backfire. As is obvious from what did not happen in the three events the campaign staged this week to try to ignite it as a big new issue in the campaign. The events fell flat. None of Angelides’ co-chairs participated or chimed in with statements of support. No one of any real prominence in the area of national security participated. With the exception of loyal Democrat Mayor Gavin Newsom in San Francisco — who the next day praised Schwarzenegger for his “vision and leadership” introducing him at the global warming bill signing ceremony — no one of any real prominence appeared with Angelides at any of the small rallies the campaign staged.
So it goes …
** With the Hyatt Regency Denver going union, the Mile High City’s bid for the 2008 Democratic National Convention gets a big boost. The selection process is down to Denver and New York. Guess which one I’m for.
** Schwarzenegger campaign leaders Steve Schmidt and Matthew Dowd just held a lengthy media conference call. Their main messages? That the campaign margin will close up as some Democrats inevitably come home to their party’s nominee. And that the Angelides Iraq gambit is falling flat in their polling. (Which seems like common sense, given the lack of enthusiasm for it evidenced by marginal events and absent political figures.) Let’s take their insistence that the gap between Arnold Schwarzenegger and Phil Angelides will narrow. They’ve been saying that for months and it hasn’t happened. Yet it should and probably will, as it’s absurd that the Democratic nominee for governor of California, a mostly blue state, is only polling 60% of his party’s vote. How much? Well, that’s another matter.
** Overlooked in the blizzard of information, and the weighty format of the poll, this week’s Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll contained what is said to be a first, as Boi from Troi points out: The first time a plurality of California voters have backed marriage for gays and lesbians. It’s not exactly a landslide, 47% to 46%, but there it is.
** Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appears with Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata to sign the affordable prescription drugs bill this morning. Live webcast slated for 9:15 AM.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices slipped a bit, hovering above sixty dollars per barrel, on news of slackening economic growth.
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| Comments (30) |
Quite the u-turn on his part. Never thought I’d see Anthony Wright be allowed stage time w/ Arnold.
I just watched Arnold and Speaker Fabian Núñez! … Arnold was good but The Speaker was so eloquent,passionate and GRACIOUS even remembering and thanking STAFF!..He obviously loves public policy …look at the remarkable and successful public policy record of his office! …If the legislature approval polling numbers are not high that is NOT reflective of the serious and hard work that is done under HIS and Perata’s leadership . It is reflecting the lack of coverage in the mainstream press of the wonderful and positive things they are doing.. I don’t know if The Speaker should run for Mayor of LA …he appears to love and is so good at crafting and negotiating policy, this requires very special talents and skill sets..I think he would make a great Senator! He communicates in perfect pitch “voting for the Common Good”…I am very grateful he fought for the Housing Bond…no one else cared…
“a plurality of California voters have backed marriage for gays and lesbians”
I was pleased….this is an issue of fairness…
then there is this PPIC statistic…
Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Californians believe illegal immigrants should be allowed to apply for work permits in order to stay in the U.S.-a 5-point jump from one year ago (60%).
California LEADS! wasn’t that what Westly said?
Bill:
I’m so glad to see you read Boi From Troy!
Does this mean you’re coming out. . . as a Trojan?
I read a great many things, Prospero, including my email. Usually.
Barbara, just a knuckle rap here because I find most of your posts interesting and balanced.
Please temper your over-the-top proclamations about Nunez and Perata’s leadership. Until they admit that their entire charade around the redistricting bill (SCA 3) was a cynical, dishonest scheme to protect their own power, they will always be part of the problem with California’s political system. While killing redistricting reform was bad enough on policy grounds, their brazen, appalling actions validated lying and evasion as an acceptable ways to do the public’s important business.
Unless of course you thought their SCA 3 actions were justified. Then I would be interested understanding your creative perspective.
The margin will close up enought to save one or two down-ticket Democratic candidates, nothing more.
KandyKid –
It’s easy enough to characterize what happened with SCA 3 as “cynical,” “dishonest,” or even a “scheme.” But if it was any of those things, we’re still way behind the Texas legislature on the Political Cynicism Scale.
Maybe what happened here could have been a bit more upfront — Perata could have said something like, “When Texas changes the way they do their redistricting, so will we.” After all, the balance of power in D.C. is on the line, and maybe California shouldn’t unilaterally disarm itself. But in light of the fact that our own voters rejected a redistricting initiative at the ballot, maybe the status quo isn’t really so odious.
Personally, I’d love it if our districts were drawn in a way that reflects the DTS vote, the way statewide elections do. It would probably be healthy for the Legislature to be as moderate as the actual electorate is. But there are also some pretty sound reasons for us as a state to remain as something of a check (however ineffectual) on the way Republicans have run amok in other states.
Prospero–
You must divide the SCA 3 issue into policy and process. I think we need redistricting reform, but I am willing to respect those who disagree for valid reasons.
Though you probably know some very partisan Democrats are frustrated by the current set of safe districts. In this year of national level fiscal and foreign policy frustrations, California Republican Congressmembers are largely insulated from much needed accountability.
But I have nothing but contempt for the way Nunez and Perata killed the redistricting reform bill. Willie Brown, a leader more worthy of Barbara’s praise, probably would have said something like this, “The ability to draw district lines ensuring a Democrat majority protects our constituents and we will never give up that right so long as I am Speaker.” End of story. Bill dies in its first committee.
I would respect such honest, straightforward and accountable power politics. None of those adjectives describes the sophomoric “loss” of SCA 3 on its journey from the Senate to the Assembly.
Nunez and Perata’s cynical, abusive and manipulative actions make the California Legislature more like Texas, not less. The Legislature’s dismal approval rating and the public’s failure to trust them on fiscal matters important to Democrats are the direct result of such abusive actions.
Prospero — It seems like you are suggesting that we should wait until the democrats are in control of Congress before we entertain any proposals to give any recognition to DTS non-partisans.
With regard to the redistricting reform debacle, Fabian Nunez committed to me on a media conference call that he would work with Schwarzenegger and Perata to agree to a date fairly early next year to produce a reform bill. That way there would be no excuse for running out of time at the end of the session.
Willie Brown left little if any of a policy legacy….Nunez is JUST GETTING STARTED! Moreover, he is the most articulate political voice in this state for the disenfranchised, and issues that bear directly on the life and dignity of human beings…and I think he will become a national voice on immigration issues . The Speaker is more than worthy of my praise and everyone else’s. However,I do need to point out that it is “Antonio” that means “worthy of praise” not “Fabian”…”Fabian” means “bean” But a bean is a good thing …it is full of protein and very healthy and nourishing! The Speaker is nourishment to the State of California!
I am really beginning to think this Kabbalah idea that your name has something to do with you are is the real thing…Toodles! Horseback riding time and it is horseback riding weather! finally it will be in the 70’s for the weekend and it’s Pumpkin Time.!..Trader Joes has lost of pumpkins! I love autumn!
I think Nunez should be taken at his word that he will work in earnest to get a redistricting bill next year. I think he knows (as does Arnold) a successful and logical redistricting process here will have a significant, lasting, and positive impact on the politics of the state and will put CA in the lead on this issue as it is on many others.
Bill: please make sure Fabian keeps his commitment.
Hap:
I don’t know if I’d go that far. All I’m saying is that we shouldn’t be surprised when politicians acknowledge realpolitick. I’m as much of a dreamy-eyed optimist as you can be, but even I’m aware that we walk on a very hard, very cold floor.
Same answer to KK as well. I don’t much care for it when politicians do things I don’t like, but I’ve never met — or worked for — one who did nothing but make people happy.
Polls are annoying. Within 2 days Clinton and FoxNews created a huge shitstorm directing everyone’s attention back to 9/11 and what people did or didn’t do. A day later PPIC releases the poll data they collected before all that happened.
I think most people don’t pay much attention until the week before the election. Many who aren’t familiar with Angelides will be then, and the race will be closer.
What do you guys think of the new 85,000-square-foot casino approved yesterday near Shingle Springs / Placerville on Hwy50?
Bill:
Glad to see the Denver Hyatt is in line. I’m with you – I think Denver would be a great pick for ‘08. And from what I read, there’s an excellent chance that Colorado will elect a Dem. as governor on Nov. 7. Unlike Angelides, Bill Ritter is running an excellent campaign in Colorado – he’s ahead by double-digit margins. of course, Beauprez, the GOP candidate, seems to be as inept and out of touch as Angelides. It would be great to show off the Blue-colored interior West…
AthlonGuy:
I saw the Chris Wallace thing with Clinton – he looked petty, spiteful and unpresidential. He was correct, too, but it doesn’t matter. The truth is, he and his team didn’t take Bin Laden seriously enough, and Bush and his team didn’t either. No one did – and that includes the media, too.
Athlon: re planned casino in El Dorado — at least the county will get some real moola out of the deal for infrastructure, law enforcement, etc which is better than nothing, which is what most casino-ridden areas have have to settle for. the south lake tahoe casinos must be real happy about it too. ha ha
Athlon, I don’t think the Clinton-FNC flap plays in the Cal governor’s race.
Many of us — in the vote by mail crowd — are getting ready to vote. The great majority of people make up their minds long before election day.
Another pathetic Angelides stunt! This poor fool should have the good grace to withdraw in favor of Westly and stop embarassing himself.
” NWN has learned that the Phil Angelides for Governor campaign has sent a letter to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger demanding that he release all those audio tapes on the Governor’s Office computer system by October 4th. Or else, they will”
Yuk! what does he mean “ALL” how long has he been doing this manipulation of the GUV’s government site?!?! Are you allowed to threaten an elected official? Invade their privacy?…how does Phil think this looks and sounds to the average person?
What does he want total backlash against every DEM running? And For voters to turn off and tune out like they did in the primary so the INFRASTRUCTURE BONDS Go Down!..Phil is really toxic …poisoning the well…I have been waiting for something like this …This is just another ROBERTI-like attack…HIS CO-CHAIRS HAVE TO GET A HOLD OF HIM AND TALK TURKEY TO HIM…There is just to much at stake!..THIS ELECTION IS NOT JUST ABOUT HIM!..there are 2 Dem congressional seats! the infrastructure bonds! , prop 86 & 87!..the other Dem candidates!…This is ruthless hysterical behavior, even his base will see this act as that. This man is scarey! …he does not have the temperment to govern.
I am going to take my dog for a walk before I go into orbit!
“A couple of interesting items from the MSM blogs today, neither of which will sit well with Barb, Ann or the other “gals” at NWN.” Salazar CMR 9/29
This is very perplexing.. now I wonder why Mr.Salazar said the above? I mean I do not approve of arrogant bad behavior…nor do I think I display it …Does Mr. Salazar think I have any control or influence over the behavior Arnold’s Team?????How bizarre, how could I? And, I guess Mr. Salazar does not know that almost all the “gals” here at NWN were for Westly not Arnold…But then the Dem activists stuck us with Phil…
I am glad Mr. Salazar apparently has read me from time to time and that he is showing concern about what sits well with me …because then he should understand what REALLY DOES NOT SIT WELL WITH ME…
Actually, It’s Mr. Pineda’s post of Wed 9/26 AT THE CALIFORNIA MAJORITY REPORT , HIS INSIDER ADVICE TO PHIL
“The key, however, will be for the wonkish Angelides from letting the spot become a treatise on immigration policy. That’s a no-win battle. Immigration is not a top issue to Latinos – they’re already here, what do they care? And why should non-documenteds get a pass on the rules when Latino voters – legal immigrants – had to abide by every one? ”
THIS, MR. SALAZAR, THAT IS, THE ABOVE DOES NOT SIT WELL WITH ME… I felt like I had been punched in the stomach when I read it….
Moreover, I heard The Mayor of LA speak with Cardinal Mahoney at the spring candlelight vigil in LA, I heard Speaker Nunez radio address to the nation on immigration, DiFI has worked her tush off the last year and half on CIRA …I tutor kids that anti- immigrant REEPS sit around thinking up how to make their lives miserable…The day after Mr. Pineda wrote that crap…the Wall Street Journal (9/27) had a front page article on the growth in California Hate groups targeting immigrants. He was wrong to write that and you know that!…I have been waiting for someone at CMR to refute this callous, cynical, and obscene advice to the Dem candidate for GUV from this “insider”…But instead nothing, it is as if it was never written, pushed under the carpet! Meanwhile, CMR continues to act as an extension of Phil’s campaign, instead of providing me or any other DTS voter with a reason to re-register as a Democrat..please, do whatever you what with CMR…but please leave by good name out of it!…
Now Phil thinks he is in litigation.
Before rendering a verdict on the mode of acquisition of the tapes, the jury should remember that they haven’t heard the evidence yet.
Among the things we don’t know is just where the tapes were, just what was done to get there, just how arcane or ordinary that technique is, whether the tapes were in a “password protected area” or that was a patently false charge, what these referenced “security protocols” say, whether they even exist, and whether a visitor to the website would have any means of readingly them and thus could *knowingly* violate them. In the absence of those facts, we have no way of hearing from security experts as to whether, under prevailing industry standards, this would be regarded an illegal intrusion or a case of carelessly and unintentionally leaving something in a semi-public place.
What we do know is that BOTH sides have given piss-poor explanations of what occurred, perhaps partly due to language barriers between spinners and IT types, that both sides have contradicted themselves a number of times, and that NOBODY thus far looks particularly good on this issue, though PA is evidently behind in the spin war right now.
And we also know that the Gov’s office has the server logs which would answer many of these questions, and has chosen not to release them.
Let’s just hold off on rendering judgment on alleged “invasions of privacy” etc. while our ignorance of the facts is being deliberately prolonged by the accusers themselves.
Evidently Phil, Cathy and the rest of the crew of the sinking Angelides ship were having cocktails during campaign school. Otherwise, how can you explaing their returning to the Governor’s server issue that blew up in their face the first time? Only Wylie Coyote lights that exploding cigar twice.
With only 38 days left, a winning campaign would be trying to boost their positives and attract decline-to-state voters turned off by negative, gotcha politics.
If this election were a Broadway show, it would be closed by now. The 10/5 fundraising reports will give us the donors’ review of this pathetic spectacle.
Evidently Phil, Cathy and the rest of the crew of the sinking Angelides ship were having cocktails during campaign school. Otherwise, how can you explain their returning to the Governor’s server issue that blew up in their face the first time? Only Wylie Coyote lights that exploding cigar twice.
With only 38 days left, a winning campaign would be trying to boost their positives and attract decline-to-state voters turned off by negative, gotcha politics. Angelides is stuck trying to stir the partisan hornets nest to stave off Election Day humiliation.
If this election were a Broadway show, it would be closed by now. The 10/5 fundraising reports will give us the donors’ review of this pathetic spectacle. We shall soon see if any one returning Phil’s desperate cash calls.
The interesting thing about the LA Times poll is that Debra Bowen and Johnny Chiang are leading. Other than McClintok’s one point lead, all the Repub’s were losing. Clearly Arnold is not demonstrating any coat-tails. Regarding the tapes, word on the street is that they contain some pretty offensive comments. Perhaps that’s why the Angelides campaign is bringing them back?
Actually, new poster spinner, if you read the article it is clear that all those races are dead heats.
The rule is for principal purpose spinners to fully identify themselves.
Ball is in your court. Kindly comply on the next thread, not this one.
If the Repubs had been smart enough to nominate more candidates who could appeal even marginally to moderate voters, they might be seeing a better coattail effect now.
Hell, Even Angelides could defeat Poochigian. In fact, maybe Phil and Jerry should switch races. The Governor’s race would be a lot more competitive, not to mention entertaining.
Incredible work on the blog!
I wish blogging was easy as getting ripped was for me! 