** Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger again vetoed LA state Senator Gil Cedillo’s perennial drivers licenses for illegal immigrants bill. Signing this bill was one of the nails in former Governor Gray Davis’s political coffin in the 2003 recall election.
** Embattled Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee who lost a close Democratic primary to super-rich anti-Iraq War candidate Ned Lamont, darling of the “netroots,” has a big lead in the general election now running as an independent.
Some California Democratic strategists, including those around the Angelides for Governor campaign, had predicted that Lamont’s primary win presaged a surge for Angelides in the California governor’s race.
** Being very fatigued and, ah, distracted, while reviewing the video footage I discovered a few things I missed in my recounting of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides’ anti-war rally earlier today at a Sacramento community college.
The state treasurer said that there is more torture going on now in Iraq than under Saddam Hussein. He cited an unnamed UN report for that particular nugget. He said that Schwarzenegger has repeatedly said that the Iraq policy is good and that he had today called Angelides “irresponsible” for focusing his campaign now on bringing the California National Guard back from Iraq. Actually, I don’t think Schwarzenegger has repeatedly called the Iraq policy a good thing, and I can hear Angelides’ longtime advisor Bob Mulholland hoping against hope that the governor is foolish enough to straighten that out. Schwarzenegger himself, to my knowledge, said nothing about Angelides today, although a campaign surrogate attacked the treasurer.
Questioned repeatedly by reporters during his brief press availability about the efficacy and relevance of Angelides’ focus on bringing guard members back from Iraq, which NWN readers have known from the beginning a governor has no power to do, Angelides seemed to say Schwarzenegger was the one who introduced the issue into the campaign, and not him. “Governor Schwarzenegger has repeatedly spoken out on this war,” the candidate claimed. “He has for the past one thousand days defended George W. Bush’s failed war policy. It’s Arnold Schwarzenegger who’s gone on national radio and TV shows to say Bush’s folly in Iraq is the right thing to do.”
Hmm. Anyone else recall all that about Schwarzenegger going so far out of his way to promote the Iraq policy?
** Democratic gubernatorial challenger held his final anti-Iraq War rally of the week during the lunch hour just passed at Sacramento City College. About 200 students attended the event, held in a semi-enclosed area between three buildings. I arrived early and shot 45 minutes of video footage of the set-up of the event, the event itself, and its aftermath, including Angelides’ brief press availability. Although students were enticed to the event by leafleters talking up an anti-war rally and free lunch (it looked very tasty, but I decided not to partake while waiting around), much of the crowd did get into the spirit of things once the candidate showed around 12:40 PM.
I’m going to review the video and update if something new occurs to me — and I will have a full report later on the event, as well as a video documentary — but the message was by now familiar. The spirited candidate, accompanied by his family and introduced by a Sacramento city councilman and a decorated Vietnam veteran (not Bob Mulholland), dropped any pretense that the governor has power over California National Guard troops on active duty service in the Iraq War. He said that, on his first day as governor, he would formally request that President George W. Bush return California guard members from Iraq. And that he would seek to organize other governors to do the same and perhaps pursue a court case against the administration.
NOTE: The area in which the Angelides event was held was fairly BlackBerry unfriendly. Voice and e-mail worked, but the web did not, so I was unable to approve any comments during the lengthy period of waiting and the event itself.
** The Big Bang Bonds infrastructure package on California’s November ballot still looks winnable, according to the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll. But it will take a major campaign to make it happen. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger hits the trail next week with Democratic and Republican leaders to push for the bonds. Schwarzenegger has recovered the standing to do it.
According to PPIC, Schwarzenegger’s job approval rating among likely voters is back up to a healthy 53%.
** The Clean Money initiative, Proposition 89 on California’s November ballot, has fallen into a deep pit according to the new PPIC poll. It trails, 25% yes to 61% no. A majority of likely voters in the poll are opposed to public financing of elections, which is the core of the measure. The fact that it would be funded by a tax increase, albeit a slight hike in corporate taxes, seems problematic as well.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices have bounced back up to the low sixties in dollars per barrel on concern about continued recalcitrance by Iran in refusing international efforts to curtail its nuclear program.
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| Comments (49) |
What happened to those Kos Kidz with their “polls” showing Schwarzeneger was dead?
Bill, thanks for the link to the new PPIC poll. I am hopeful it isn’t too late for the bonds.
Capitol Weekly has a nice overview of the TV ad cost spiral that is impacting the cost of campaigning: http://www.capitolweekly.net/news/article.html?article_id=1003
It’s not too late.
I reported on the TV ad cost hikes last week.
Survey USA has Schwarzeneger by 14 over Angelides. It’s a dumb robo poll but that ABC blogger and the Kos Kidz were all for it when it showed Angelides close. Let’s see what they say now. lol
That’s correct about Survey USA, Schwarzenegger over Angelides, 52-38. But I don’t buy that poll’s methodology no matter what the results are.
Bill, do you agree with Dan Weintraub about the possible impact of the ABC ads? I can easily see them simply depress the margain of victory for Schwarzenegger. And does Angelides have a positive message or even a theme to offer if the ads provide him an window of opportunity to sell himself to the voters during the debate, etc.? One hasn’t been visible heretofore.
http://www.sacbee.com/110/story/30350.html
Prop 89 — Prop 89 is poorly written, poorly timed, poorly funded and a poorly disguised political attack on the business commuinity. It’s a shame that this initiative is going to sour voters on public financing, which, if done correctly, can be a viable political reform.
The bonds are in big trouble — they will need significant resources to pass.
It appears that the Dems/ABC/et al are going to waste money on Phil. They have given-up defeating Arnold, but they still (wrongly) think they can prevent him from winning a significant mandate.
Interestingly, since Arnold is SOOOOOOOOO far ahead in the polls, he could spend significant time and money on trying to get the bonds passed. Doing so would add to his legacy, which is obviously a central motivation to almost everything he does.
It’s painful to say, but I think that Arnold will be key in what happens in the bond races. And if his momentum drags even a couple of these measures across the finish line, it will add more to his mandate than beating Phil by 15 pts, rather than 10.
Bill — seen any polling as to how many union households will be voting for Arnold? I’d guess around 30% of likely union voters.
Why is Survey UsA a bad poll?
Dana, I think the anti-Arnold ads will have some impact. They have to. It’s absurd for Angelides to only have 60% of the Dem vote, that has to go up.
Of course, how much impact depends on how much is being spent — and how much more TV time costs now than just a couple months ago.
I hear different stories about how much is being spent.
But if you are concerned about the bonds campaign not having enough to spend, that’s a concern that might be shared.
Bill Brasky, I’ve already reported that it’s Schwarzenegger’s intention to campaign extensively for the infrastructure bonds.
As announced by Bill, We’ve known for a month that the Governor and legislative leaders were going to do events Oct.2-3 around the state promoting the bonds. And as Bill says, the Gov has stated he is going to put a major push behind them from now to election day.
While slow to ramp up evidently the bond campaigns are undertaking their first ad buys and sending out an alert for more money from the usual suspects to compensate for the ad cost spiral (which Bill has also discussed). The poll numbers are OK but after the library bonds went down in June everyone is aware the bonds need to be sold. One virtue of the bonds, unlike Governor Davis’ congestition plan they do not have project lists attached, makes them a harder sell when trying to explain direct benefit to potential voters. At the legislative hearing in the Bay Area yesterday, this resulted in having “possible projects” touted. I imagine we’ll have more of this as the election approaches.
Overall I am hopeful at the bonds’ prospects but just nervous as this is a rather chaotic election season.
why is Angelides bothering to campaign at Sac City College, which is two blocks from his home? I don’t get this guy — has he given up already?
Angelides wishes Schwarzeneger was his caricature. Phil Weaselides strikes again.
Matt, the candidate was probably hoping for a big turnout of support so close to home.
Matt, it is becoming downright unsportsmanlike to point out Angelides continuing string of campaign failures and dismal prospects. But I will try to be gentle.
Spending his second day this week on a college campus talking about the Iraq war is a strategy to capture the Democrat voters needed to avoid abject humiliation on Election Day. The fact that 40 days before the election Angelides is not courting moderate, decline to state voters is a clear indication he is toast and knows it.
Angelides defeat is not in doubt, just the margin of loss. If you know sports wagering, my over/under line would be 13%.
Phil is starting to seem like he is Willie Loman.
you’d think Angelides was running for President with all this bizarre focus on the Iraq War. I just don’t think it resonates with voters choosing a Governor.
Just noticed this … the problem with Survey USA is it’s a robo poll. A machine calls up phone numbers associaed with registered voters and asks preprogrammed questions.
The machine doesn’t know if it’s the voter or whomever.
Matt,
I have it on good authority that Phil chose SCC so that he could get home quickly and finish reading “What Color Is Your Parachute? A Practical Manual for Job-Hunters and Career-Changers”
Matt makes two great points that Bill has also eluded to. First, that Phil needs to stop doing events in Sacramento. I would even suggest he shouldn’t spend more than four days there total over the course of the rest of the campaign. If his campaign doesn’t feel Sacramento, his home town, is in the bag, he ought to just give up now.
Second, foreign policy is (outside of international trade and immigration) a non-issue in gubernatorial elections. Angelides’s Iraq focus is a great example of how good a job Arnold has done removing any policy platform other than raising taxes Phil ever had to run on.
Thanks for the posting the Lieberman-Lamont poll, Bill. very interesting stuff – perhaps since the Gov race here is so boring, it might be more interesting to look at other races. A friend of mine in DC who closely tracks politics told me today that Lamont is a really miserable candidate – utterly lost, verbally, and unconvincing once he stops talking about Iraq – and he’s trying to talk about other subjects to broaden his appeal. Maybe he should come to Sac City College, eh?
Bill the PPIC poll is still stating they are using “likely” voters…are they now counting “leaners” and are they talking to registered voters as likely voters? I looked through the notes and didn’t see this discussed but I could have missed it if it’s there. Also do you know if they spoke to a certain % of voters registered by party and DTS. Sorry to be such a pest but I tried to find this in the report. Thanks:)
No, as I said earlier, neither PPIC nor Field are using “leaners.” This is why Schwarzenegger is under 50% in PPIC, unlike some of the private polls in which he is over 50%.
Likely voters are those likely to vote. Leaners are voters leaning toward a candidate but not committed.
Notice that Schwarzenegger has a 53% job approval rating in PPIC.
Yes, they did speak to a certain proportion of voters according to partisan affiliation. It’s in there, the poll is just not very user friendly.
Tim, I’m in something of a quandary. A lot of people are simply not interested in Angelides. My videos featuring him are not widely viewed. Unless it’s a train wreck situation.
However, he is the Democratic nominee for Governor of California.
Thanks for the clarification Bill…I’ll try over the weekend to find where that is in the poll as I’ve saved it…then I won’t have to ask you again:) I still think he’s going to win by 20 points….I’m still of the opinion the bonds won’t pass but once they start campaigning I know the numbers will change…all I do know is much money will be spent on ad buys and people will get sick of seeing nothing but political ads soon…how that frustration effects the vote is a wild card worth watching
Thanks for posting Lieberman’s numbers….he’s going to win which I think is great…it will be interesting to see and hear what effect the anti war vote had in the post election analysis…also what impact the anti Israel vote will have…
I hope you won’t after cover him much after the debate. He is getting more and more toxic. He is poisoning the California Democratic political well. The Democrats should quarentine him!
Hey lucky people living in LA! Forget Phil and do something positive and important tomorrow!..join the Mayor of LA and the wonderful people behind Prop 86
at this rally (see below! Gosh I love my google alerts!) I know you are tired Mr. Bradley, but everyone would watch a video of this event!
“LA Mayor Villaraigosa Displays a City United Behind Prop. 86 at Press Conference/Rally
Initiative Will Save Kids’ Lives and Reduce Smoking
LOS ANGELES–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa will officially endorse Proposition 86 and stand alongside volunteers, doctors, nurses, labor leaders and business representatives at a rally on the steps of Los Angeles City Hall.
WHEN: Friday, September 29 at 11 a.m.
WHERE: Los Angeles City Hall – First Street steps
WHO: Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and hundreds of volunteers from the American Cancer Society, American Lung Association, American Heart Association, Children Now, The Children’s Partnership, the California Chapter of the American College of Emergency Physicians, California Emergency Nurses Association, California Primary Care Association, Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce, the California Federation of Labor and many other organizations supporting Prop. 86.”
-Yes on Prop 86 press release”
Actually, videos do not edit and produce themselves. They’re significantly harder to do than columns, which are quite easy for me usually.
The Phil question will be resolved. I’ll produce a video documentary of his last anti-war rally over the weekend. His campaign should be pleased it won’t be back to back with Schwarzenegger’s global warming extravaganza.
I’m thinking of offering some coverage of the U.S. Senate races in Connecticut, Virginia, and Nevada.
Not as the main course, of course …
good choices all for some coverage…
“PHILITIS”
Democrats Quarantine Phil !!!!!
Toxicity Level: HIGH
Infected: California Democratic Insiders (Note: be fore warned :spreading rapidly at CMR!)
Symptoms: CYNICAL MINDS * CALLOUS HEARTS * ZEALOTRY ON BEHALF OF A CANDIDATE ESPOUSING NOTHING BUT NEGATIVETY FOR CALIFORNIA
“The key, however, will be for the wonkish Angelides from letting the spot become a treatise on immigration policy. That’s a no-win battle. Immigration is not a top issue to Latinos – they’re already here, what do they care? And why should non-documenteds get a pass on the rules when Latino voters – legal immigrants – had to abide by every one?” CMR POST 9/27 -Democratic “INSIDER”advise to Phil
Well, Bill, I think those 3 races would be interesting..I haven’t followed Nevada much beyond a posting you did a few weeks back – it sounded at the time like Carter had a real chance…As for Virginia, well, Sen. Macaca just keeps getting in deeper and deeper, doesn’t he?
As for the Nevada caucuses and 2008, I saw a story today which said the Dems. have narrowed their choice of ‘08 convention sites to NYC and Denver. I think Denver would be an excellent choice, for reasons like you’ve talked about in some of your posts – the West and the Rockies are nowhere near as Red as they used to be…and a Denver convention could certainly both recognize that fact, and help it along, too….
Bill:
by the way, thank you for adding video. I know, as you said, they’re harder and more time-consuming than columns, but they add a lot to the reporting and the site.
The Democratic national convention was just in New York most recently in 1992. I was at another one there, too.
I don’t think it’s ever been in Denver. That would be a great site.
Bill, I can understand focusing on the VA and CT senate races, but why NV? It’s hardly a close race. Is it because of the ‘08 primary calendar, or just a reason to head to Las Vegas?
Watching some more competitive races is refreshing. I’ve been staving off the boredom by betting on Charlie Brown and rediscovering hope and suspense…
Phil’s National Guard plan, if you can call it that, is one of the most cynical stunts I’ve seen in some time.
This is the sequence of events as I understand them:
* Political consultant, one without a policy bone in his body I might add, posts National Guard plan on dem blog.
* Phil takes said plan and announces it as his own.
As the Governor would say, “I don’t play that game.”
BTW – I wonder what DiFi thinks of this move? Probably not much.
Nevada primarily because of the 2008 presidential caucuses.
Bill I read an article earlier tonight about why the GOP picked the twin cities for the 08 confab and why the DEMS will pick Denver…no big surprise it’s all about 08 votes but a very interesting read
Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003) is now out on HD-DVD. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger should put out an HDTV ad with the Treasure Island/Golden Gate Bridge global warming law powersigning (with special guest the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom).
Heard an ad on the radio this morning for the school bond, 1D.
Jilian, I think people already are sick of seeing nothing but political ads–and Bill has alluded to this fatigue factor impacting the campaigns.
Bill: I meant that Arnold will do more than campaign for the bonds, he will direct significant contributions away from himself to those campaigns.
Barbara, I just learned Tuesday Oct. 3 around 1 PM Villaraigosa will heqadline a rally for the oil tax, Prop 87. It is being held at
2650 N. Vermont Ave in LA
(opposite Roosevelt Municipal Golf Course, at edge of Griffith Park). So he is making a big noise about various items on the ballot. This gets him some chits he can cash in to help fund future ambitions…
No chits for Villaraigosa for 87. Its pay back for Steve Bing putting 250k into AVs’ school initiative.
AV will also be gone in Asia for 16 days so forget about him stumping for Phil or other ballot measures. At least till he gets back.
More importantly, AV will have no coattails on 87. People love the guy, his popularity is thru the roof, but they wont listen to him on this issue, I think.
Dana! we should add an “Antonio Watch” to NWN!!! so that people can go and hear him speak at all his public events!
It does not surprise me that he is comming out and supporting these important ballot measures… he defines TR’s definition of “moral responsibility” for political leadership…lucky LA! and lucky lucky lucky California 2010!
“Antonio Watch”!!! LOOK DANA! He must have been thinking of you and your coalition !
CBS) LOS ANGELES Construction will start on the Metro Express Line, a light rail system between downtown Los Angeles and Culver City, with an official groundbreaking ceremony Friday…Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Supervisors Gloria Molina and Yvonne Brathwaite Burke and Culver City Mayor Gary Silberger are expected to attend the morning event.”
I just love my AV google alerts! I hope I get the one on his support for Prop 87 soon! He sure had a busy morning didn’t he?
I hope not. Despite the fact that the oil companies are behind the No on 87 campaign, it’s still a tax. Aside from 1A to 1E, and 83 (surprised I haven’t seen any pro or con ads on Jessica’s Law yet), all the other props will tend to sink, most by double digits.
sony hdtvs are going to be the hardest Christmas gifts to find but I found mine at http://astore.amazon.com/50-inch-lg-hdtv-for-sale-20
i believe it was a bit rushed, and ignored some features that not many individuals talk about. Everyone is aware of that almost all new smartphones have internet, so why present that primary function at its bear minimum. Scroll up scroll down zoom in zoom out. Really? which new telephone doesnt do that? How bout talk about how the textual content rearranges itsself. Additionally the texting, very poor review. Why didnt you mention you should use the mic and text with your voice? Ignored ALOT of other more necessary options