Wednesday was a banner day for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, an outstanding day for Democratic legislative leaders Fabian Nunez and Don Perata, and a not very good day for Schwarzenegger opponent Phil Angelides. Schwarzenegger established a commanding lead in a public poll going into Labor Day weekend as he, Perata, and Nunez announced agreement on landmark legislation to fight global warming. Meanwhile, the trailing Angelides held a dour, sparsely attended rally and was hit for his silence on college tuition hikes in the Gray Davis era.
Schwarzenegger holds a commanding 13-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Treasurer Phil Angelides. Schwarzenegger’s job approval rating has climbed up to 50%. Despite very active campaigning and millions in TV advertising on his behalf by the California Democratic Party, Angelides has gained no ground on Schwarzenegger over the past month in the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll. Schwarzenegger leads Angelides, 45% to 32%.
PPIC does not include “leaners” at this point, accounting for the 5-point gap between Schwarzenegger’s improved job approval rating and his number in the preference race over Angelides. Schwarzenegger is over 50% in a number of private Democratic polls. This public poll indicates serious dissatisfaction among Democrats with their gubernatorial nominee, with just over 40% of Angelides’ fellow partisans expressing satisfaction. Schwarzenegger also has a big edge among independents, 42% to 23%.
Schwarzenegger thus heads into Labor Day weekend in the position he had hoped for following the June primary. With a double-digit lead, a string of legislative successes — on global warming, solar energy, prescription drugs, and minimum wage — and the need to campaign with friendly Democrats on behalf of the massive bipartisan infrastructure bonds initiative package. For the news for the bonds is not so good. While most are over 50%, none is in a commanding position. It will take a concerted effort to get most of them passed.
Angelides media consultant Bill Carrick — who produced the “Leader not an actor” TV ad that ran constantly around the state — reportedly tried to put the best face on things with some reporters yesterday, noting that the fact that Schwarzenegger led Angelides by 13 points a month ago and leads Angelides by 13 points now indicates that the former action superstar is stalled.
That’s one way of looking at things. The truth is that the very effective Schwarzenegger team’s plan has worked. At the beginning of the summer, Carrick and others said the governor was wasting his money, that no one would pay any attention to campaigning until Labor Day. But as Carrick said in his video interview with me earlier this month, the game is actually very different than it was many years ago. The general election campaign began in earnest immediately after the June primary, as he acknowledged.
Team Arnold has done much to define both candidates, opening and maintaining a large lead over the Democrat in this mostly Democratic state, while the governor and company continued to improve his job approval rating, which at the beginning of this year was abysmal. Meanwhile, Schwarzenegger’s operatives chip away at every Angelides attempt to gain traction in the race, yesterday undermining the treasurer’s attacks on Schwarzenegger for raising college tuition and fees in the wake of the state’s 2003 budget meltdown by pointing out that he ignored huge demonstrations against Davis’s much larger increases.
Schwarzenegger’s recovery, which runs in the face of an anti-Republican trend around the country, has been in no small measure due to his ability to work in the bipartisan centrist fashion he promised during his recall campaign and the first year of his governorship. He, Nunez, and Perata have forged a remarkably effective working relationship. While there are tensions and differences between the three, it is hard to fault any of them for real world results.
All the parties in the global warming negotiations have reason to be happy, with changes since my last full report. The bill, by Nunez and L.A. Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, now meets the concerns of environmentalists and “green tech” businesses while still earning the condemnation of many conventional business interests. The governor no longer has to get any support from another quarter to trigger the “safety valve” mechanism in the legislation, allowing a one-year suspension of the measure to account for catastrophe or potentially extreme economic dislocation. The proposed Greenhouse Gas Council — a nine-member body with the power to suspend, with four of the members coming from legislative appointments — will not exist. Under that scenario, the governor would have needed all five of his appointees, plus at least one legislative appointee. Now the governor has the sole power to invoke a safety valve as California moves to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.
The Air Resources Board (ARB), which is entirely appointed by the governor, will ramp up for the challenge and design and oversee the greenhouse gas emission reduction program. It will be assisted in designing and implementing the program by the governor’s Climate Action Team. The cap-and-trade market mechanism, which allows the trading of emission credits between businesses under an overall cap on emissions, to meet the program’s targets is allowed for in the legislation but not mandated. Nevertheless, a market-based approach is likely, as the ARB, widely respected for its work on air pollution, will develop a cap-and-trade program.
Of course, there was furious spinning behind the scenes for credit on the global warming bill. State Senate vs. Assembly, and vice versa, and of course, Democrats vs. Schwarzenegger. It was quite amusing. Well, except when you were listening to all of it, that is.
But with the attention that this move will get around the world, there is plenty of credit for all involved. Although, inevitably, the lion’s share will accrue to Schwarzenegger, who is after all the global superstar.
Actually, Schwarzenegger has talked for years of doing something just like this on global warming. In 2002, while then Governor Gray Davis was deciding whether or not to sign Pavley’s first landmark global warming bill — the one sharply curtailing tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases in vehicles built in the next decade — Schwarzenegger said he wanted to champion efforts to fight climate change. While preparing to jump into the 2003 recall campaign, he insisted that he would protect Pavley’s bill, under legal challenge from the Bush Administration and auto manufacturers, with the power of the governorship. He did so as governor. Now he, Nunez, Perata, and Pavley have taken another big step, the biggest yet.
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Just quickly reviewed some of the amendments…They did good …”based compliance mechanisms” is important ..they shored up a great deal of language…Thank you for your report. Latte Time!
“The bill would authorize
the state board to adopt market -based compliance
mechanisms, as defined, meeting specified requirements”
Adaptability, strategic thinking, and leadership = Success
Schwarzenegger’s secret weapons are Don Perata, Fabian Nunez, and Antonio Villaraigosa.
Thank you Democrats.
why does today remind me of the day I adopted a plan to lose 40 lbs? It was the happiest day of my diet, which of course has yet to work.
Sullihan:which of course has yet to work.
Not true. It is tested. It works. The U.S. is behind…if national policy follows California’s lead we may have a chance to play catch up with the likes of Germany and Japan…this is not just an environment policy..this is sound economic policy and it is very much a competitiveness issue….(next new frontier…Nanotech! ..everyone read Westly’s report!… he even addresses ethical concerns concerning this new world of nanos!)
I do not understand why the legislature is STILL polling so badly…people just are not paying attention to their many accomplishments this year…their leadership has been impeccable …it is another reason why they (DEM Leg Leadership) need to get a high profile Bonds campaign going now with Arnold…I am all for Arnold …but his greatness this year lies in his working with Nunez and Perata
A wake up call for Angelides and all Democrats.
You can’t govern your citizens or run a campaign based on attacks and negativities without offering solutions that meet the people’ needs. Tax is NOT what people need, Stupid.
Your global whining will soon loose it effect as people are tired of labeling, propaganda, lies, and negative messages. Union attack only works with union members. Liberal media are being replaced with talk shows and Fox News.
Americans are smart. Eventually people will see the truth.
Congratulations to Team Arnold, particularly Steve Schmidt.
Steve Westly had a 13 point lead a month out, and where is he? Arnie is still at 45% after several good weeks. He’s done an excellent job of pushing through the Democratic agenda. Thank you Arnold and Sue Kennedy.
No differences betweeen Westly and Schwarzeneger. Unknown guy, superfamous guy. Why bother with you morons? Keep drinking the koolaid.
Anyone who believes that AB 32 is “sound economic policy” or that it “strengthen our economy” is completely delusional. It’s one thing to be a leader in environmental policy to the rest of the nation/world (CA has the strictest environmental regs across the board), but it’s another to screw over businesses and manufacturers that the state relies on in order to set an “example” for people to follow. AB 32 will do nothing to reduce/slow “global” warming whatsoever, and punching the state’s economy in the mouth is a large price to pay for the feel-good comfort our legislators may get from passing a useless, envioronmentally progressive peice of legislation.
Actually, it is time for a reality check here, and a history lesson.
First the history lesson. AB 32 will impact global warming. Here is why. As the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world, California is one of the key markets in the world. Changes here filter through the rest of the economy.
Now the reality check. As Bill Carrick and other spinners is very well aware, there are a number of private Democratic polls with Schwarzenegger over 50%. PPIC and Field do not do “leaners” at this point.
For example, a recent poll by one of the most well-respected Dem pollsters had Schwarz leading Phil, 52% to 33%.
In the spin game, it’s often what you don’t hear, not what you do hear.
What you don’t hear is the voice of my old colleague, Angelides’ pollster, Paul Maslin.
The video of the Angelides “rally” is telling. A dispiriting little bunch of negativity, concern and regret etched on the face of Mr. Pulaski. Who must (should) be wondering what possessed him to have labor back the weaker of the two Democrats in the primary.
Mr.Bradley, I finally downloaded PPIC poll and I think now I just might understand why you wrote: “For the news for the bonds is not so good.”
PPIC finding “even supporters of individual bond measures think the total amount, about $43 billion, is too much.”
I think this Media AD campaign needs the “Gale Kaufman touch”…last year she showed that she has the ability in messaging to bring an issue home to the average Jane and Joe so that he or she understands how it will personally impact him or her…I know she is working on Education …but, there is only one thing to do…you guys have to pay her whatever she wants and have her weigh in on all the messaging for the ADS for each bond campaign…this Ad campaign needs a woman’s touch to make sure you reach all the women voters…these bonds are “quality of life” and “future thinking” issues and, simply put, …those are exactly the kinds of issues we “GET” best! …and who knows better than women that there is a price to pay for quality!…Heck, everytime we go shopping we are faced with that!… They have to hurry up and get Kaufman and just get going!…
Barbara, you may be right. And I could be wrong. However, do you know how much green house gas, i.e. methane, was caused by the cow that produced the milk for your latte? So why won’t dairies cut back their herds in California to gain a greenhouse credit which they can sell, and send the rest of their cattle to Arizona to maintain production levels to be trucked in to our favorite cafes.?
I think you should tell us how much of California’s greenhouse gas emissions are caused by cows producing milk for lattes.
Then run the numbers on establishing a ranch in Arizona. Along with the trucking costs, of course.
The Angelides Walmart video is hysterical. “At least Rome took care of the Romans before the Empire fell …” Did you cast these people, Bill?
The topic of dairy relocation beings me to my favorite canard – if you raise taxes, buisinesses will flee the state in hordes, destroying jobs. Here’s a look at the issue from the PPIC: http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=640
Not that I’m advocating a huge tax increase, but it seems this irrational fear is constantly floated every time somebody proposes perfectly reasonable tax amendments (like split roll property taxes). I for one am a fan of the idea of increasing the number of business incubators in the state, since business creation is a much more important factor in the state economy – and those are funded by tax dollars.
Good luck with your Arizona dairy – maybe while you’re out there you’ll discover why states that function as tax havens aren’t as prosperous.
So our market will become plump with environmentally-friendly products and tech that will be required for emitters to try and meet their arbitrary caps, and this will then transfer into other states adopting caps on emissions, followed by federal emissions caps, followed by other nations following suit and eventually the world right? That is the goal of this bill?
Even IF a nation-wide cap was implemented and these technologies (which so far are inefficient and impractical) had success in the U.S. we’re still only talking about a minor, minor reduction in worldwide CO2 emissions. Such technologies are a luxury of the rich (i.e. U.S. and other 1st worlders) and will not transfer to the worst CO2 emitting countries such as China, India etc. Their goal is development, not saving the environment — CO2 be damned.
Global warming will be best combated with R&D into new technologies and investing in those technologies until they can be reasonably implemented. We are not there yet. Just because Al Gore makes us feel like Manhattan will be under water tomorrow doesn’t mean it’s going to be, and acting rashly to address this worldwide issue is as irresponsible as doing nothing.
Max, here’s something to consider. By creating a cap-and-trade system, what you’re actually doing is recognizing the very real damage that is done to public goods. So by setting aside an amount of a public good that we are willing to pay in order to receive certain manufactured goods in return, you actually internalize the cost of the public goods consumed into the market mechanism.
If you believe that markets are efficient at determining the allocation of resources, then you ought to be a fan of cap-and-trade systems. All they do from a theoretical perspective is bring a larger scope of information into the market, which should help make the market a better policy device. Right now we have a system where the cost of the items we buy is not reflective of what resources are actually required to produce them, and that should make any fan of efficient markets cringe.
The guy whose laughing all the way to 2010 is Villaraigosa. Which is what this love-fest between the Govvenor, Nunez et. al. is really all about. Only a politician as cynical and self serving as Villaraigosa would have California endure 4 more years of Arnold, so he’s got an open shot in 2010. What’s really sad is that the legislative Democrats seem only to happy to go along with all this… Shame.
I know that the political consultants want us to think that it’s already over, but I remind you, Phil Angelides has a way of surprising people. (Has he ever started out ahead in any of his races?) Nobody has moved in the latest polls, so I say, let the campaign begin, let’s see what happens when the voters start to pay attention. I would not be surprised – particularly in today’s political climate – that the people who will be most surprised by the outcome, is the Governor and the Mayor.
Shawn is a longtime Democratic Party figure and activist supporting the Angelides campaign who ran for the Assembly earlier this year.
There, I identified you for you, per the rules of this site regarding principal purpose spinners.
[...] Schwarzenegger’s Big Day, And Big Lead [NWN] [...]
Incidentally, I would bet that Don Perata is not a supporter of Antonio Villaraigosa. So that conspiracy theory doesn’t hunt, to mix a metaphor.
I am sure there will be many more conspiracy theories presented to explain why things are happening in a bipartisan fashion.
I would suggest that when people are confused because facts on the ground don’t match theories, they consider Occam’s Razor.
Mr. Bradley …to Sullivan: “I think you should tell us how much of California’s greenhouse gas emissions are caused by cows producing milk for lattes.”
Thank you, Mr. Bradley… but it is no use talking to some people…instead of being excited and seeing endless potential and possibility in this landmark bill …all they want to do is talk about farts!…and it is always guys!…and they sound like giddy silly 5 year olds! ..even those silly REEPs did that last night in the legislature…They just had to go there ..Well, I think they are a bunch of silly farts for trying to reduce this moment to a discussion of farts….and I am not going to let anyone spoil this day for me! Besides passage of AB32, Antonio’s school reform bill is enrolled and just waiting for the Guv to sign it …and there was a pro editorial in WSJ to support the Mayor in his school reform effort…and the bonds at least have good numbers to start a campaign with…so I am going to take the rest of the day off, get my nailsdone and celebrate tonight with my girlfriends ..we are going to see if we can order green drinks! That is if they make one! Toodles! Have a good GREEN day!
P.S. Look at what the WSJ is reporting! …I would not be surprised if “nanoballs” were utilized…Go Nanotech!
“For the first time in the history of treating cancer, gene therapy has apparently succeeded in shrinking and even eradicating large, metastatic tumors. The therapy worked in only two of 17 patients who were treated. But many researchers are hailing the study, which was published in the online edition of Science, as groundbreaking because it provides compelling evidence in human patients that gene therapy can be effective against one of the toughest challenges in medicine: terminal cancer. “
Per the rules, should I mention that I’m a Westly campaign alumnus? I wouldn’t want to run afoul of disclosure rules. It was good seeing you at the CA Majority Report launch party Bill, and now I’m blogging as promised!
Barbara,
Re: Green drink
Try a Midori Sour blended.:)
How dare they debate one the most sweeping regulatory bills in the history of the CA legislature.
A cap-and-trade system is better than a cap-only system, and the dissemination of information is useful, but I can’t see how this will result in a narrowing of the gap between production costs and what the consumer pays — at least not in a way that’s advantageous to the consumer. Maybe the producer is just forced to pay more and that closes the gap slightly, but that’s IF prices on what we pay don’t go up which they most likely will. So where’s the advantage, it can only hurt us.
And 2010 will see Nunez as L.A. mayor, and Villaraigosa running for Gov against the Pooch who defeats McClintock in the primary (?)…
Where is Ed Emerson? He cannot be responsible for that pathetic little Angelides rally yesterday.
Max Powers, now I know you are a deluded ideologue. Poor Chuch Poochigian will return to the family dairy business after his trouncing by Jerry Brown. He would certainly never beat McClintock in a primary. He has never beaten anyone in an election. Brown and McClintock are real politicians with popular appeal. They don’t match your lobbyist agenda.Poochy is a glorified staffer.
Granted the Pooch idea was a stretch to say the least but my main point is the Rep’s aren’t going to give the primary to McClintock because, although very worthy, he’s too Republican and thus couldn’t garner enough votes to win the general. The question mark suggested I was open to alternative suggestions. I’ll scrap the Pooch idea thanks, but the question remains: who goes against Villaraigosa?
Sorry Bill,
I didn’t know there were rules. Let me see them! Yes, I’m a progressive Democrat. One who has run against the Party Establishment and I like to think that what you call “purposeful spin”, is in fact, my sincere opinion…. Not talking points, made up by party hacks or anyone else for that matter. I believe, even as a grassroots activist, I’m still allowed to have an opinion, right Bill?
For the record, I have no contact with Phil Angelides’ campaign — outside of trying to get him on my radio show for an interview — and am not working for him. I did send them $30 dollars an few months ago. How’s that for disclosure, sir?
re: “Only a politician as cynical and self serving as Villaraigosa would have California endure 4 more years of Arnold, so he’s got an open shot in 2010.”
Tee Hee!
Villaraigosa is an important and powerful elected official he doesn’t determine who wins this year’s governor’s race.
Also, 2010 is a long way away. No one has a clear shot at any open post. The politician that doesn’t understand that risks underestimating his or her opponent.
Matt Jones, thanks for the disclosure. Since your principal purpose here is not to spin/advocate for a campaign, so far as I can tell, it’ not necessarily necessary.
Shawn, the rules are to the right, where it says NWN Rules.
They’ve been gone through so many times here because of the constant wave of spinners, usually using fake handles, that if you’ve been here much you’ve probably seen this discussed many times. You’re in the party and you’re obviously spinning for Angelides.
Juan & Bill,
It is exactly because the Mayor is an important & powerful elected official (with burning ambition) that he has the ability and the desire to determine who the governor will be in 2010 … Namely himself. I think both you and Bill are being a bit naive. Remember this was the same guy who promised to forgo his mayoral designs when he ran for City Council. The only thing that will stop him from running for governor in 2010 is, the V.P. slot on the Democratic ticket in 2008.
Don’t doubt for a minute, that he hasn’t thought about it.
The politican that thinks ahead – just like in chess – has a much better chance of gaining any open post. And Antonio likes to think ahead. Regardless of the political consequences the rest of us have to live with
Sterling versus Bulworth, who would win?
I may just have to write some fanfic.
Shawn, what makes you think Antonio wins the primary? I’m sure he would trail in a public poll. He simply is not the moving force here in this “horrible” situation in which many good things are happening.
So Gospodin Bierko, Senator Bill Sterling vs. Senator Jay Bulworth? You are trying to put me on the spot here.
Oh, answering an earlier question.
The only clearly electable Republican gubernatorial prospect in California is Arnold Schwarzenegger. I’ve been saying that for years. One or two others might develop.
Shawn:
Someday I hope to be as naive as the 1,231 people who voted for you in the Democratic Primary for the 41st Assembly District.
If you want to believe Villaraigosa had anything to do with the Governor’s shift to the left and Angelides shift into neutral… go right ahead believing.
Boy, Bill. I wish I had your power to determine people’s motivations, as I can’t see much difference between me and Mr. Matt Jones. Let me get this straight, you can’t be for a candidate, without being a spinner for him? That’s a pretty sad state of affairs. But, Bill believe what you want… You’ve been wrong before. Call me what you will, I’ll just give my opinion.
For the record, I’m a Democrat for the purposes of registration, and not a dues paying member of the Party. I did give $20 dollars to their disability caucus, because I work in the community… and nobody gave a membership card to the Democratic Party.
I just looked at your rules, and I think I followed them. I disclosed who I am, and what I am. Bill, do you believe that any citizen who runs in a Party’s Primary is automatically working for that Party’s candidate for Governor? Just trying to understand the rules, as you understand and dictate them, sir.
Thanks.
Shawn, you missed my point.
Your postings here all pro-Angelides spin.
Matt Jones posts about a variety of things.
Dear Bill: Only because you asked, the google number for: “cows ‘greenhouse gases’ ‘global warming’” is 31,500. The National Academy of Sciences Museum website identfies cattle as one of the most significant sources of the green house gas methane. This is because they exhale methane with every breath. (Tell Barbara that flatulence is not mentioned there, nor was it ever mentioned by me). And methane, molecule for molecule, is 50 times more “efficient” in global warming than CO2. Its impact on global warming is significant. As for Farms in Arizona, check out one of the biggest dairies, “Sara Farms” which has recently come under fire for shipping their California dairy’s milk to Arizona for processing at their Arizona dairy, only to be returned to California for sale. They make a profit because California sets a minimum price for the sale of milk, based on the cost of production.
Sorry, homework not completed.
Now, Now Mr. Cortina,
Since you mentioned nothing about the substance of my last post, I guess you don’t take constructive criticism well. Be that as it may, please know I take great comfort in the fact that I have 1,231 friends & supporters in my A.D.
You forgot to mention the 81,600 others across the state who took the time to vote for me in 2002 when I ran for Secretary of State. Sooner or later someone who believes in social justice and plenty-for-all is going to be in a tight election and need my help.
Who knows, might be Phil.
Spread the word will ya…
P.S. Juan, how many people have voted for you?
Bill, correction: “Sarah Farms”.
Bill,
I thought the point was to comment on your daily post. I’m happy to comment on all sorts of things… and will. I’m just getting acclimated to your format. My opinion is, what it is. That doesn’t mean I’m spinning. I am telling you the truth as I see it. Thanks for being patience.
P.S. The Mayor seems the most popular guy in S. CA. right now. That may be different in four years, nonetheless, you know as well as I do, that any popular S. CA politician has an edge for statewide office as this is where most of the population (and votes) are.
That’s cool, Shawn.
Thanks, Bill.
Till next time…
Hey, what about our boy by the Bay? Gain Newsom? There was an interesting article in the Times about an impending fight in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2010. Newsom vs. V? Sounds like fun.
Hey, what about our boy by the Bay? Gavin Newsom? There was an interesting article in the Times about an impending fight in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2010. Newsom vs. V? Sounds like fun.
What article was that?
Bill,
This might be the article:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-gavintonio31jul31,1,4306017.story
When will the Democrats figure out they should have nominated Westly?
I should see Newsom in San Francisco. (Great, an excuse to be in my hometown.)
Shoot some video.
I am concerned that it would be unfair to him since he is more of a wonk type. He’s not very telegenic.