Wednesday was a banner day for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, an outstanding day for Democratic legislative leaders Fabian Nunez and Don Perata, and a not very good day for Schwarzenegger opponent Phil Angelides. Schwarzenegger established a commanding lead in a public poll going into Labor Day weekend as he, Perata, and Nunez announced agreement on landmark legislation to fight global warming. Meanwhile, the trailing Angelides held a dour, sparsely attended rally and was hit for his silence on college tuition hikes in the Gray Davis era.
Schwarzenegger holds a commanding 13-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Treasurer Phil Angelides. Schwarzenegger’s job approval rating has climbed up to 50%. Despite very active campaigning and millions in TV advertising on his behalf by the California Democratic Party, Angelides has gained no ground on Schwarzenegger over the past month in the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll. Schwarzenegger leads Angelides, 45% to 32%.
PPIC does not include “leaners” at this point, accounting for the 5-point gap between Schwarzenegger’s improved job approval rating and his number in the preference race over Angelides. Schwarzenegger is over 50% in a number of private Democratic polls. This public poll indicates serious dissatisfaction among Democrats with their gubernatorial nominee, with just over 40% of Angelides’ fellow partisans expressing satisfaction. Schwarzenegger also has a big edge among independents, 42% to 23%.
Schwarzenegger thus heads into Labor Day weekend in the position he had hoped for following the June primary. With a double-digit lead, a string of legislative successes — on global warming, solar energy, prescription drugs, and minimum wage — and the need to campaign with friendly Democrats on behalf of the massive bipartisan infrastructure bonds initiative package. For the news for the bonds is not so good. While most are over 50%, none is in a commanding position. It will take a concerted effort to get most of them passed.
Angelides media consultant Bill Carrick — who produced the “Leader not an actor” TV ad that ran constantly around the state — reportedly tried to put the best face on things with some reporters yesterday, noting that the fact that Schwarzenegger led Angelides by 13 points a month ago and leads Angelides by 13 points now indicates that the former action superstar is stalled.
That’s one way of looking at things. The truth is that the very effective Schwarzenegger team’s plan has worked. At the beginning of the summer, Carrick and others said the governor was wasting his money, that no one would pay any attention to campaigning until Labor Day. But as Carrick said in his video interview with me earlier this month, the game is actually very different than it was many years ago. The general election campaign began in earnest immediately after the June primary, as he acknowledged.
Team Arnold has done much to define both candidates, opening and maintaining a large lead over the Democrat in this mostly Democratic state, while the governor and company continued to improve his job approval rating, which at the beginning of this year was abysmal. Meanwhile, Schwarzenegger’s operatives chip away at every Angelides attempt to gain traction in the race, yesterday undermining the treasurer’s attacks on Schwarzenegger for raising college tuition and fees in the wake of the state’s 2003 budget meltdown by pointing out that he ignored huge demonstrations against Davis’s much larger increases.
Schwarzenegger’s recovery, which runs in the face of an anti-Republican trend around the country, has been in no small measure due to his ability to work in the bipartisan centrist fashion he promised during his recall campaign and the first year of his governorship. He, Nunez, and Perata have forged a remarkably effective working relationship. While there are tensions and differences between the three, it is hard to fault any of them for real world results.
All the parties in the global warming negotiations have reason to be happy, with changes since my last full report. The bill, by Nunez and L.A. Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, now meets the concerns of environmentalists and “green tech” businesses while still earning the condemnation of many conventional business interests. The governor no longer has to get any support from another quarter to trigger the “safety valve” mechanism in the legislation, allowing a one-year suspension of the measure to account for catastrophe or potentially extreme economic dislocation. The proposed Greenhouse Gas Council — a nine-member body with the power to suspend, with four of the members coming from legislative appointments — will not exist. Under that scenario, the governor would have needed all five of his appointees, plus at least one legislative appointee. Now the governor has the sole power to invoke a safety valve as California moves to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.
The Air Resources Board (ARB), which is entirely appointed by the governor, will ramp up for the challenge and design and oversee the greenhouse gas emission reduction program. It will be assisted in designing and implementing the program by the governor’s Climate Action Team. The cap-and-trade market mechanism, which allows the trading of emission credits between businesses under an overall cap on emissions, to meet the program’s targets is allowed for in the legislation but not mandated. Nevertheless, a market-based approach is likely, as the ARB, widely respected for its work on air pollution, will develop a cap-and-trade program.
Of course, there was furious spinning behind the scenes for credit on the global warming bill. State Senate vs. Assembly, and vice versa, and of course, Democrats vs. Schwarzenegger. It was quite amusing. Well, except when you were listening to all of it, that is.
But with the attention that this move will get around the world, there is plenty of credit for all involved. Although, inevitably, the lion’s share will accrue to Schwarzenegger, who is after all the global superstar.
Actually, Schwarzenegger has talked for years of doing something just like this on global warming. In 2002, while then Governor Gray Davis was deciding whether or not to sign Pavley’s first landmark global warming bill — the one sharply curtailing tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases in vehicles built in the next decade — Schwarzenegger said he wanted to champion efforts to fight climate change. While preparing to jump into the 2003 recall campaign, he insisted that he would protect Pavley’s bill, under legal challenge from the Bush Administration and auto manufacturers, with the power of the governorship. He did so as governor. Now he, Nunez, Perata, and Pavley have taken another big step, the biggest yet.
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Bill,
Make sure your video lens are polished, clean and the zoom is working…and make sure you charge your batteries…make sure you take a couple extra camera’s….you never know…if you need your shoes shinned…i know a few female camera operators who are ready…
Paul Maslin’s voice is missed Bill I agree….and lol re Gavin Newsome be sure and wear some shades when you film him
Bill Bradley Says:
August 31st, 2006 at 9:36 am
Actually, it is time for a reality check here, and a history lesson.
First the history lesson. AB 32 will impact global warming. Here is why. As the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world, California is one of the key markets in the world. Changes here filter through the rest of the economy.
Hahahahah… That’s a future lesson, Bill, not a history lesson.
You should re-read that.
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