** Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a commanding 13-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Treasurer Phil Angelides. Schwarzenegger’s job approval rating is up to 50%.
Despite very active campaigning and millions in TV advertising on his behalf by the California Democratic Party, Angelides has gained no ground on Schwarzenegger over the past month in the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll. Schwarzenegger leads Angelides, 45% to 32%. PPIC does not include “leaners” at this point, accounting for the 5-point gap between Schwarzenegger’s improved job approval rating and his number in the preference race over Angelides. The poll indicates serious dissatisfaction among Democrats with their gubernatorial nominee, with just over 40% of Angelides’ fellow partisans expressing satisfaction.
Schwarzenegger thus heads into Labor Day weekend in the position he had hoped for following the June primary. With a double-digit lead, a string of legislative pluses, and the need to campaign with friendly Democrats on behalf of the massive bipartisan infrastructure bonds initiative package. The news for the bonds is not so good. While most are over 50%, none is in a commanding position. It will take a concerted effort to get most of them passed.
Concern was evident on the faces of Angelides and close allies like California Labor Federation chief Art Pulaski, as you will see in tomorrow morning’s NWN video of Angelides’ lightly attended anti-Walmart rally today. Angelides media consultant Bill Carrick — who produced the “Leader not an actor” TV ad that ran constantly around the state — reportedly tried to put the best face on things with some reporters today, noting that the fact that Schwarzenegger led Angelides by 13 points a month ago and leads Angelides by 13 point now indicates that the former action superstar is stalled.
That’s one way of looking at things. Look for a full report on the landmark anti-global warming legislative agreement between Schwarzenegger, Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, as well as more on the poll, the campaign’s events of the day, and more tomorrow morning in New West Notes.
** Look for a new public poll on the California governor’s race here later tonight.
Look for a video here tomorrow of Phil Angelides’ anti-Walmart rally.
** I’ll have a full report on the global warming deal later, the parties in the negotiations all have reason to be happy. The governor no longer has to get any support from another quarter to trigger the “safety valve” mechanism in the legislation, allowing a one-year suspension of the measure to account for catastrophe or potentially extreme economic dislocation. The Greenhouse Gas Council — a nine-member body with the power to suspend, with four of the members coming from legislative appointments — will not exist. Under that scenario, the governor would have needed all five of his appointees, plus at least one legislative appointee. Now the governor has the sole power to invoke a safety valve.
The Air Resources Board, which is entirely appointed by the governor, will ramp up for the challenge and design and oversee the greenhouse gas emission reduction program. It will be assisted in designing and implementing the program by the governor’s Climate Action Team. The cap-and-trade market mechanism to meet the program’s targets is allowed for in the legislation but not mandated. Nevertheless, a market-based approach is likely.
** There is now FURIOUS SPINNING under way for credit on the global warming bill. State Senate vs. Assembly, and vice versa, and of course, Democrats vs. Schwarzenegger. It’s quite amusing.
** As I reported first early this morning, Governor Schwarzenegger, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata have a deal on global warming. The legislative leaders have been briefing it this afternoon.
Meanwhile, I’ve been off shooting and producing video footage of rallies and dealing with some NWN infrastructure issues.
Incidentally, there is a major public poll coming out.
** With a big lead over Democratic challenger Phil Angelides going into Labor Day weekend, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is said to have a deal in hand with Democratic legislative leaders on a landmark California law to combat global warming.
** Track global and national energy prices in near real time via Bloomberg. Crude oil prices have dropped under $70 a barrel.
** Continuous coverage of the new global insecurity on Pajamas Media (PJM).
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Details yet on teh global warming bill deal? It looks like another large win for Schwarzeneger.
I’ve figured it out! Arnold is the GOP version of Jerry Brown.
Not the Moonbeam thing, the thing about confounding the traditional party appartatus types. Think about it, Jerry told the state to expect less from government. How often do Democrats say that?
Bierko:I’ve figured it out! Arnold is the GOP version of Jerry Brown.
I like that! it would make a great bumper sticker !
Our Global Warming bill is in the Senate according to my leg search…they just got going (turn on your Cal Chan!) Walters/Bee said today in a rather negative article on the bill that we have to wait until tomorrow for the vote … I think this is such a remarkable memorable legislative session …the bonds, a timely budget, landmark bill on school reform, now Global Warming…it is a political win for Arnold but all the substantive heavy lifting kudos goes to the legislature, especially to their leadership and their STAFF!..
Of course Arnold is the Jerry Brown of the GOP, and when he switches parties after November 7th, he’ll feel right at home. Guess that Democratic poke out is really working.
The only reason we had an on-time budget was due to the surplus. The last on-time budget was passed CA also had a huge surplus…I don’t think these two events are mutually exclusive as its easier to give in to demands for more spending when there’s more to go around. Without the surplus, who knows how long it would have been before a budget was enacted, plus state workers threatening strikes? GAS has had luck on his side this year.
The only reason we had an on-time budget was due to the surplus. The last on-time budget CA passed also had a huge surplus…I don’t think these two events are mutually exclusive as its easier to give in to demands for more spending when there’s more to go around. Without the surplus, who knows how long it would have been before a budget was enacted, plus state workers threatening strikes? GAS has had luck on his side this year. Sorry Bill, off topic but was responding to a part of Barbara’s “remarkable memborable legislative session.”
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/living/articles/2006/08/30/mits_inconvenient_scientist/
You read it here first….With no future campaign to run, Arnold goes DTS in his State of the State message. Something like “I have joined the millions of other Californians who have abandoned the political parties that are tools of the special interests.”
GAS would have been far better served had he relied upon Tom McClintock for help in selecting staff and appointees if he really wanted to blow up boxes vs. perpetuate entrenched bureaucracies …. going instead to institutionalists who had helped sustain those bureacracies and had become inured to them, just as they then did when they staffed Performance Review with career bureaucrats, was a prescription for disaster.
*Nothing* has changed out here in bureaucracyland. A colleague was stymied with a wall of red tape a few months ago when trying to order lead for a mechanical pencil because it didn’t fit within their “boxes.” The *conversation* with the bean counters cost taxpayers ten times its value.
Mr. Governor, tear down that wall of boxes!
“With no future campaign to run, Arnold goes DTS in his State of the State message.
Oh, i don’t know. Now that he’s mastered the art of runnning as a Democrat and governing as a Republican, “Sen. Schwarzenegger (R-CA)” for 2010 seems very possible.
But which of his children will be president?
No future campaign? Unlikely. Like a bear who has tasted manflesh, a politician will continue seeking office until he is put down permanently.
Who knows, maybe we’ll see an Antonio versus Arnold Senate race in 2010 or 2012.
Jim, didn’t see your post, but we are the same wavelength.
Besides, Arnold would only have to take out a Mountjoy (or Fong-like GOPer) for the nomination.
woops, wrong thread for Perf. Review comment. My bad.
“Like a bear who has tasted manflesh, a politician will continue seeking office until he is put down permanently.”
THAT statement is a thing of beauty. I shall cherish it always. I may print bumper stickers or even get a tattoo. Thanks, Vlad.
Mr. Bradley …
Cal Majority Report
“At 2:30 p.m. today, Democratic legislative leaders, along with members of the environmental and business communities, are announcing a globally-significant agreement on Assembly Bill 32, landmark, first-of-its-kind legislation to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions from industrial sources in California.
(Last year, California was the world’s 12th largest producer of greenhouse gases.)
This is another big win for leaders Perata and Nunez in what is shaping up to be the most productive legislative year in more than a decade, as well as for Assemblywoman Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills) and the environmental lobby.
The inconvenient truth? It’s rumored that the bill will not contain at least some of the changes that the Schwarzenegger Administration had been demanding.
UPDATE: The Governor is now indicating that he will sign AB 32. Smart move, Governor. ”
GREAT NEWS! I was driving back from tuutoring at the Co-Op when I read it and dropped by treo! I HOPE THAT RUMOR REFERENCED ABOVE IS TRUE!!!!!!
Yes, Barbara, as fascinating as the Comments section is here, DON’T FORGET TO READ THE MAIN PAGE.
CA MAJ Report /UPDATE: The Governor is now indicating that he will sign AB 32. Smart move, Governor.
No…this is much more than a “smart move” on his part …now he showed me he is just not smart but understands with power comes Moral Responsibility…Go Arnold!
Barbara wrote: “with power comes… responsibility.”
When did Arnold hire Ben Parker, Peter Parker’s uncle, as his advisor?
And yes, I have read a hellva lot of comics books.
I did!…and absolutely, you reported it first! But I have to check in over there because it is not like they do not know what the Speaker is up to, and let’s face it that is where the action is… with the Speaker !and even though you gave those guys such great press coverage I figure those guys will will be self serving and post there first with all their insider stuff because they billed themselves as insiders but I know you write politics from the inside /outside … or is outside /inside?…oih well, t does not matter, because this is the truth Mr. Bradley…I may read now and then over there but I will never post anywhere but here …you are stuck with me Mr. Bradley! because I am not one of those insider wannabees I just want straight from the inside /outside… or is it outside /inside? …whatever that’s how I want it …here at NWN!….
Barbara, the whole deal is very very inside/outside. They can’t post here first if it’s already posted.
The truth is there was a deal last night. I didn’t write about it till this morning. These things are sensitive.
Now there is furious spinning for credit.
We’ll get to that tomorrow,.
I credit Heidi Klum for making the Earth really ridiculously hot.
Let’s just hope she doesn’t decide the Earth is out.
Auf Wiedersehen
Mr. Bradley: Now there is furious spinning for credit.We’ll get to that tomorrow,.
Oh they should just be proud and happy ….being happy keeps you healthy! I’m very happy! ..school reform in LA, landmark environmental bill! Payday is tomorrow! I shall call my girlfriends to celebrate with dinner downtown tomorrow night! we shall toast Fabian, Arnold and Perata! 4 More Years!
Speaking of happy …Mr. Bradley, will Phil be happy with this new poll?
But she stole “The Body” trademark from another supermodel, Elle McPherson …
No, Phil will not be happy with this new poll. I shot footage of him discussing things off to the side with Art Pulaski, head of the California Labor Federation. Not happy faces.
“No, Phil will not be happy with this new poll. ”
Well that really makes me happy, but it just seems to me that the Dems JUST have to move on now …forget Phil and focus on the bonds especially the two so identified with them the Housing and Education and then there is the cigarette Tax child /healthcare (“2 California’s”.. read something about that somewhere today…important stats…just can’t remember where…. passage of all those measures would sure help that ever-growing “second California”… )
What does this bill even mean? So I purchase a 2007 Cadillac Escalade (which are very nice, by the way) and drive it between Eureka & San Diego 12 times. Who drastically cuts back gas emissions to compensate for my luxury?
Who is forced to emit less to compensate for the new emissions of new residents sneaking in from other countries? Hopefully Barbara has to cut back more than most for that. Maybe there’s something the government can do to her horses to control their emissions.
I apologize for being lame and ignorant on this, but I just don’t get it.
Bill,
Do you think Lockyer will run for Governor in 2010? Where do you see him going?
Who will be running for Boxer’s seat in 2010?
Mr. Bradley:The Greenhouse Gas Council — a nine-member body with the power to suspend, with four of the members coming from legislative appointments — will not exist
Oh my God …I am so HAPPY about this!!!!!! Mr. Bradley you reported this FIRST. Even the NYT article that is up now on this wonderful occurance does not repot this! And this is really important..no G G Council!!!!.And dont worry they are happy… someone named Lily Ho says they are happy! and Arnold is Mr. Optimistic …so we know he is happy…and I bet you are happy too Mr. Bradley…. someone should throw another party! TOODLES
Nevertheless, a market-based approach is likely…..
“Likely” …I wonder what that means? …I wonder about enforcement? …I wonder …wonder ..wonder …I am forced to go back to this Lily…such a pretty name Lily!
Does this mean I will be forced to retire my urban tank? or will we finally produce a cleaner fuel?
Different bill.
The Pavley bill of 2002 is about vehicles.
Carole,
Google NY Times and see below …google AB 32 for more info! Have fun!
“California and its business community are now leading a revolutionary change regarding climate. Thanks to their hard work, AB 32 will achieve a 25 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, while preserving California’s business climate. Driven by our members and supported by our Executive Committee, the Bay Area Council was the first major business group in California to step forward to support this bill, contingent on some key amendments, which were made.
“Our key stipulations for AB 32 were: first, an emissions goal of 1990 levels by 2020; second, mandatory reporting by the largest contributors of emissions to enable the state to track its progress towards targets, based on Climate Action Registry protocols; third, market-based approaches must be implemented that financially reward reducing greenhouse gas emissions; fourth, we called for a related and coordinated investment in cost-effective emissions reductions technology and alternative fuels to accelerate the clean energy sector; and, fifth, we insisted on an Early Action Credit, so that businesses that have already acted to reduce emissions get retroactive credit for their work after the bill goes into effect.” Sf Business wire 8/30
Thanks for the info Barbara and Bill…Party on!
Bill,
I’m old. How long do I have to stay up for the poll? It late, is it worth staying up for?
10 PM.
I doubt you’ll be surprised.
Bill,
Thank you. Think I can stay up that late. Might not be surprised, but still interested.
Sac Solon,
Forget the POLL they are voting In the next few minutes on AB 32 in the Senate …turn on Cal Chan!!!!
This vote was preceded by a passage of AB 2987 Cable video service bill..what a night for the Speaker and his staff!
Did Cal Chan always provide this much coverage in the past? Thanks Cal Chan!
“Bovine flatulence” is one of the reasons offered by Senator Denham for not voting for the global warming bill. Saw it on my own television. A truly great American, Tom McClintock, has just taken the microphone to also speak against the bill…now that’s real bovine flatulence!
Barbara,
Thanks, been watching.
This is the first year I’ve been away from the office and access to the real legislative channels in a long time. However, I do recall that the Cal Channel normally remains on the air way late this time of year.
Should would be nice if I could get the legislative channels. But Comcast charges $75 per month for the four channel package and I can’t justify that.
Once again, thanks for the heads up!
Done Deal!
Perata was great! I think I heard him call Arnold an “attuned moderate” …that is the perfect way to describe Arnold!
Game is over.
Thank you Mr. Bradley for the great public service.
I hear checkbooks closing throughout the state. Phil will get nothing more than pitty money now.
A truly great American, Tom McClintock, has just taken the microphone to also speak against the bill…now that’s real bovine flatulence!
True..but at least he said he believes in Global Warming!!!!
Did you see Carole Migden on AB 2987? She gets the prize for the looniest statements of the night!
“Attuned Moderate”…I remember in the primary another candidate that we luved was described by those words. Wouldn’t this have been an interesting election if that candidate was still here for the General election? You know I am not a “Cultist”….I just want to be a winner, when it comes to my politics.
I’ll bet PA’s crew are just thrilled about that “attuned moderate” quote. How many days till we see it in an ad?
Barbara,
I think the charming and lovely Ms. Migden was going for the session award. And do believe that she earned it!
Mr. McClintock probably also believes in term limits and is against career politicians as long as it isn’t Tom McClintock. Sorry, not a McClintock fan in any regard. I’ve seen his act far too long. As I might have said before, one of the truly rude members.
Mr. Bradley, thanks for posting the poll results. Sleep will now come easy.
“2006 will be a partisan and polarized election and that will benefit Democrat Phil Angelides.” Carrick over at Ca Majority Report on the POLL
Look at this ridiculous man…talk about the skunk that comes to the tea party! …here every one is happy over AB 32 and Carrick and Phil want this election to be about anger..
THAT’s NOT CALIFORNIA MR. CARRICK! Not Now! Not Ever! But especially with our attuned moderate and our dream team of legislative Dem leaders!…
I was going to post a cruel jibe but pity just got the better of me. That’s a very bad sign in and of itself.
Bill I was looking for the previous poll to see how much the numbers had changed since Mr. Carrick pointed out that the difference is still 13%….I was trying to see whose numbers had moved and how much since it’s still + 13% for the Gov….I’ll keep looking and thanks for posting the poll results:) I keep thinking this will end up being a blowout even though it’s so early but this poll keeps my thoughts moving in that direction
Carole:”Attuned Moderate”…I remember in the primary another candidate that we luved was described by those words”
That’s interesting…I think you are right….but then I have said from day one after our Westly lost…that Arnold was the more natural and fitting candidate for any Westly supporter to support in the general…
Can’t wait for Mr. Bradley’s report tomorrow! Good Night!
I finally found the previous PPIC polling info….it was AS 43% PA 30% so AS gained 2 and PA gained 2….some spin by Carrick:) not much movement by either side really…