** FOLLOWING THE DISASTER IN QANA, Israel has agreed to halt aerial activity over Lebanon for 48 hours.
** In San Francisco, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has called for a prompt cessation of hostilities in the Israel-Hezbollah War based upon a UN Security Council resolution he is working on. He stopped short of calling for an immediate ceasefire.
** The killing of dozens of children and women in the Lebanese city of Qana may mark a significant turn in the Israel-Hezbollah War. U.S. and British efforts to effect a ceasefire favorable to Israeli military objectives appear to have collapsed in the wake of the incident. The Israeli military says that Qana was the source of multiple Hezbollah rocket attacks against Israel. But Islamic Jihadist guerillas hiding amongst civilians is not a new phenomenon, as the Israelis know better than anyone. What counts in the overall of politics is the bottom line, as the Israelis also know better than anyone.
** Miami Vice movie opens at #1 at the North American box office. New West mini-review to follow.
** Continuous coverage of the Israel-Hezbollah War fom Pajamas Media. Israel’s bombing of civilians in Lebanon has cast a pall over its efforts and short-circuited U.S. and British efforts to effect a ceasefire favorable to Israeli military objectives. British Prime Minister Tony Blair, incidentally, is presently running the U.K. government out of the Fairmont Hotel high atop Nob Hill in San Francisco.
** Global and national energy price watch, courtesy of Bloomberg. U.S. electricity prices have had a significant drop.
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Does Tony Blair do a better job running the government out of San Francisco than he does in London?
Couldn’t resist. lol
That’s very cold …
The Prime Minister and Governor should meet up at Fisherman’s Wharf for clam chowder bread bowls.
Israel is losing. Did they not understand the risk of killing women and children in places like Qana?
Qana is a disaster, Israel may have just lost its little war. I see the fools on Fox are reduced to speculating that Hezbollah killed the children themselves. This is pathetic.
Israel rather deliberately is making it clear that they do not care about the ‘politics’ of the situation. Internally, support is overwhelming, and with the US continuing to give the green light, any other political consideration is unimportant. They see this as an existential threat, and we see this as a proxy war with Iran. World opinion be-damned.
Actually, as I have already reported, the disaster at Qana has had a major negative impact on US policy. With Israeli forces finding tougher going than anticipated, Rice had been pressing for a ceasefire that would achieve the more limited Israeli military objectives spelled out some days ago. That effort is now dead.
So you think the US is now going to insist that Israel cease fire?
Two powerful pariahs who have agendas that only create more animosity.
And guess what? Neither cares, there is no real diplomacy, there is only show and tell.
Happy to see that everyone is as concerned about the civilians in Qana as they are about the civilians in the Israeli cities that are killed every time Hezbollah launches a rocket into those suburbs.
Let’s watch how it continues to play out, Adam, sans rhetoric, keeping in mind that US policy has already been thwarted by Qana.
Hap, as you know, this incident alone killed more civilians than all the rocket attacks on Israel.
Say an extra prayer for everyone involved.
This leaflet was dropped for several days in the area prior to any bombing…
“To all citizens south of the Litani River:
Due to the terror activities being carried out against the State of Israel from within your villages and homes, the IDF is forced to respond immediately against these activities, even within your villages. For your safety! We call upon you to evacuate your villages and move north of the Litani River.”
There were 148 rockets fired on Israel yesterday from southern Lebanon. There has been 148 fired out of Qana since the war began. The building in Qana that was bombed collapsed nearly 8 hours after it was hit, leading military folks to believe that it was basically an ammo dump.
But you are right — Israel is well aware of the politics here. Certainly Israel should know that they are always held to a higher standard and in this case should have done more infiltrating with intelligence personnel or something, before resorting to targeted bombings, particularly since they know well that their enemy has for years used civilian human shields as a tactic. I am just sorry that we don’t see that fraud Kofi A. expressing the same shock and horror when someone bombs an Israeli shopping mall.
carole w has a good suggestion.
Bill your appearance on Channel 4 in LA this AM was good….you looked younger on TV than your pic on the pajamas media site:)
This is the first I’ve heard about the building in Qana taking 8 hours to fall after it was bombed……that is very strange…..Israel is aware of the politics I agree but their stated goal is to move Hezballah back off the border….to me it proves the point that human shields are being used and/or they live among their neighbors, go out and shoot off missiles then go back inside. Israel had intelligence or they would not have bombed there. These missiles are hard to “see” much like the scuds were in the first Iraq war. What’s troubling to me is the pulling back of support for Israel from some of the other countries over there….Israel is losing the PR war and for better or worse they need to change that perception in order to regain the support of their mission. It might bw wise for Israel to increase their ground troops to find and eliminate the missiles and cut back on the air bombings…even with all the leafletting people are staying put…. who knows why and it’s costing them the PR support.
Tony Blair and the President laid out their plan on Friday. It was well stated and very doable. I can only hope it can still be salvaged and worked on by Secretary Rice and the UN.
I agree with carole w’s suggestion too.
Thanks, Jillian, when I get a weblink to the TV show that works well, I’ll post it.
I was, as mentioned above, going to do a little write-up on the Miami Vice movie, which isn’t simply an entertainment, but in light of the Qana disaster will hold off awhile on that.
From WaPo:
“The building was not the target. There were missiles being launched 100 to 300 meters from the building. We don’t target civilians and had we known there were civilians there we would not have fired on that site,” Israeli military spokeswoman Capt. Noa Meir said. “We do everything we can to prevent civilians from being killed, while Hezbollah operates from these areas because they want civilians to be killed.”
Hopefully they do stop the air strikes and figure out what the hell they are doing.
Jonathan:
clearly, they know what they are doing and they know what they’re aiming at, but it’s worth pointing out that they are not using laser-guided munitions, so essentially, it’s a “dumb” bomb. As the Wash. Post and other media pointed out, missiles were being launched from a couple of hundred meters away. Clearly, this was a mistake, and the Israelis know it, but as Bill and others have pointed out, the Israelis also know that the bottom line is that this is extremely damaging….
and the overall winner here, in the longer run, is likely to be Iran, which should frighten everyone…
and while I’m on the subject of the news, what kind of price do we all think Mel Gibson will pay for his anti-Semitic rant? This is another story which I suspect won’t go away for quite awhile…
A letter to the editor of Der Tages Spiegel [Daily Mirror], a Berlin paper:
“I lived until 2002 in a small southern village near Mardshajund that is inhabited by a majority of Shias like me. After Israel left Lebanon, it did not take long for Hezbollah to take have its say in other towns. Received as successful resistance fighters and armed to the teeth, they stored rockets in bunkers in our town as well. The social work of the Party of God [Hezb'Allah] consisted in building a school and a residence over these bunkers! A local sheikh explained to me laughing that the Jews would lose in any event because the rockets would either be fired at them or if they attacked the rockets depots, they would be condemned by world opinion on account of the dead civilians. These people do not care about the Lebanese population, they use them as shields, and, once dead, as propaganda. As long as they continue existing there, there will be no tranquility and peace.”
Dr. Mounir Herzallah
Berlin-Wedding
Oh, the Mel Gibson thing is nothing. I mean, there were many groups he could have ranted about. As far as we know, he only chose one, so you know he was actually quite restrained …
Hap, be all that as it may, the consequences are obvious.
This, by the way, again points up the limitations of air power. And of Israeli intelligence.
Bill you are right about limitations of air power and the IDF intelligence. I am sure that Israel knoew they ran the risk of getting civilians when dealing with these folks. Makes it more difficult for them, but necessary nonetheless. They will have to be more surgical or at least systematic in their approach so they can limit civilian casualties, which may be what is planned, given the call up of troops.
They are going to have to send special ops in on the ground to reconnoiter significant targets.
Bill I keep wondering where the Mosad (sp?) is and what role they are or aren’t playing in this. They would be more effective than bombs since they aren’t using smart bombs:) The posting from Hap with the letter is exactly right on and why I still support the plan as laid out by the President and PM Blair. This cannot ever be seen as a victory for Hezballah, Syria or Iran. People need yet again to be reminded this didn’t just start with the kidnapping of 3 Israeli soldiers….it started long ago well before 9/11 even before the 1st bombing of the WTC back in the 90′s. They will only continue to get stronger if they aren’t stopped now. I can only hope the people involved on our side stay the course.
I’m waiting with baited breath for your review of Miami Vice! I loved the tv show and haven’t decided if I’m going to see the movie or not. I’ve only read about it here and I’m leaning towards going to see it this week.
BTW I didn’t think Bill Carrick came off too well on the show this AM you can’t tie the Gov to the Pres and win it just won’t happen and is soooooo lame! Steve did a much better job I think in laying out his plan.
I’m sort of stunned at Mel’s antics…..I really thought he was staying on the wagon but it seems he fell off rather hard.
Beal – Are you reporting on the war from Lebenon or are you doing it from an Al fresca cafe in the heart of San Francisco, with a monte christo in your hand?
I thought Carrick made a good point today about the PPIC poll when he said Arnold got 1% higher than Di Fi, and do we really think that’s the true state of the voters last week.
Jose, that was okay for a comebacker, but there wasn’t much evidence of a real strategy there, except a hope that the LA democrats will turn out, and others will be convinced that the state is suffering because Arnold went to Ohio and appeared on behalf of the incumbent president. I felt bad for Carrick because Phil hasn’t given him much to work with.
Oh, yeah, a “failed photo-op governor”? I thought he might have forgotten to add, “from a large state.”
Jose, you failed to mention Bill. I think we need to give the award for best presentation to our own Bill ! Wouldn’t you agree that his analysis was spectacular? As you saw him by the river side, couldn’t you imagine him smoking a ‘gar outside the Strip in Vegas reporting on the goings on in the presidential caucuses
Jose, you might consider reading what I write before commenting unless your goal is to waste my time.
As I pointed out at the time, the PPIC Poll does not do \”leaners\” at this stage of the contest.
That means that all of the candidates are actually running somewhat higher than the numbers in the poll. For example, Schwarzenegger is around 50% in private polls. Feinstein is also higher. And so is Angelides.
But PPIC and Field handle the methodology differently. At this point.