** Phil Angelides will launch his long-expected “Twins” ad linking Steve Westly and Arnold Schwarzenegger today. Expect to see a picture of the two men hugging. But not a picture of Arnold kissing Angelides’ campaign co-chairman, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez.
UPDATE: Don’t be surprised if Phil Angelides himself is on hand for the unveiling of his Westly/Schwarzenegger TV ad in Sacramento. This is something almost always left to staff and consultants. But this is the campaign Angelides has always wanted to run, as the “anti-Arnold.”
UPDATE: HERE IS THE ANGELIDES ATTACK AD,”TWINS,” LINKING WESTLY AND SCHWARZENEGGER. With the predicted hug, of course.
5:45 PM UPDATE: IS THIS A STRONG MOVE? OR IS IT A FEINT?
** Expect the pre-election Field Poll for Friday morning publication.
** A bit of intrigue in the intriguing Democratic primary race for lieutenant governor. Univision was expecting to tape a face-off between the three candidates today on its Voz y Voto program, Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi and state Senators Jackie Speier and Liz Figueroa. But Speier won’t be there, her spokesman Nathan Ballard saying: “It wasn’t on Senator Speier’s schedule.”
Here, incidentally, is the new Garamendi TV ad, which boosts him and blasts Speier, whose campaign calls it “misleading.” It could make it sound to the casual viewer like she took hundreds of thousands from Enron, which she did not.
UPDATE: According to her campaign, Speier received $5,000 from Enron, in 2000. In those days, it was not uncommon for Democrats, including Phil Angelides, to raise money from Enron. To be fair, I suspect that Steve Westly would also have received a contribution from Enron, had he been in politics at the time. This being the time before California’s electric power crisis, when Enron and its chief, Ken Lay, were widely regarded as brilliant paragons.
Here is an interesting question. Why does Figueroa have a billboard blasting Speier along the Bayshore Freeway south of San Francisco?
UPDATE: The Figueroa campaign says they have nothing to do with the billboard, that it was arranged by an independent expenditure committee. As it is independent, they don’t know who is behind it.
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Bill,
When are you going to put up a prediction piece?
Let the betting begin!
Garry South and Co. better have a response ready for the Twins ad. It should have been ready for months.
The new Angelides ad is up on YouTube…
http://youtube.com/watch?v=WvH9_eySA6Y
The ad is also announced on the Angelides campaign website.
Damn you’re quick, Bill.
Phil has been saying the same things from this ad for months now. You better belive that Garry is ready for this. I can’t tell you how many Angelides supporters have posted that last shot “The Hug” in comments sections of Daily Kos.
Like Bradley mentions, these same people forget how to code a link when it comes to recent photos of Da Guv cruising the state with new Democratic Rockstar/God-figure Antonio Villaraigosa…or with the strangely absent (that’s different than bizarrely useful) Angelides co-chair Fabian Nunez.
You don’t go into a war without knowing where your enemies will come at you from. Things change, and new things come up (see: “Positive Campaign Pledge” or “Cari”), but you plan for the things you plan for…
Ech! I felt like Rumsfeld saying that! Gross.
But, if I’m channeling Rummy for a minute I’ll use his language:
There are known knowns: Westly KNEW Angelides was going to turn to this.
There are known unknowns: Westly knew it was coming but the DIDN’T KNOW when.
There are unknown unknowns: I don’t know what they didn’t know they didn’t know.
Maybe they didn’t have that third category. I heard Garry South sleeps with his eyes open, so as to not miss anything.
Actually…
Garry South (like Chuck Norris – http://www.chucknorrisfacts.com) does not sleep. He waits.
At the same time, you know Phil had to see the “Developer” stuff coming. He knew he knew that.
I am not sure what he knew he didn’t know. But what I know I know is that Angelides’ “unknown unknown” was that he didn’t know that he didn’t know what Angelo was going to do from him. He had no idea that was coming. It was a total surprise.
All that Rumsfeldian Language has left me feeling dirty and guilty. I’m going to take a shower to get that sludgy feeling off me. Then I’ll self-flagelate for my Democratic penance.
For South and company, hitting back at this commercial will be like playing whack-a-mole…only you know eactly which hole the mole will pop out of.
Scott, I’m much faster when I’m not riding in a bus or driving my car typing with my thumbs.
Tommy Boy, what on earth does this mean?
>I am not sure what he knew he didn’t know. But what I know I know is that Angelides’ “unknown unknown” was that he didn’t know that he didn’t know what Angelo was going to do from him. He had no idea that was coming. It was a total surprise.
Know what just gave me a chuckle?
The major “independent” group in 2004 for was ACT.
In 2006 it’s AKT.
Tee diddly hee. Easily amused is me.
The Chron has a blog post up about Arnold’s election night plans to have a fundraiser. Anybody have any idea where it is?
Taos, New Mexico?
Hmmm…..what would happen if this campaign were to last another month?
At some point someone would put up an ad comparing his opponent to Hitler.
Mercifully, this campaign ends in a week.
That’s the magic of Rumsfeldian language. It’s like a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a vest.
You think it means something. He thinks it means something. I thought I meant something. Looking at it now, maybe I didn’t.
Mostly I was being facetious. That while they all give AKT “U.U.” status, I have a feeling he was really a “K.K.”
It was as planned as the gun behind the pull-chain toilet in The Godfather.
And please, Mr. Bradley:
Don’t Blackberry and drive. You’ll wreck your car again! Which reminds me, did you get it back? If I had a bitchin’ ride I’d be itchin’ to hop on in and tear up the great American highway system.
And imagine that highway system after Arnold and Fabian gussy it up with all that bond money.
Phil’s becoming more and more like Arnold.
His ad features Arnold with a Democrat.
I’m guessing Arnold’s will too…
…or are those really Antonio’s ads?
Arnold has a great many Democrats to choose from for his re-election ads.
Where is my car? It is still in the shop. They are taking their own sweet time repairing it. It took them four days to figure out why the engine wouldn’t start. (Nope, no damage, emergency shut-off engaged after an extreme stop.) P-a-r-t-s d-r-a-g o-n. It was supposed to be back last week, well before Memorial Day weekend. Then by tomorrow for something special I have going on. Now it’s next week. It’s nearly as annoying as this election.
I think the MoveOn.org contest and Dick Durbin have shown what happens if the specter of Hitler enters your comments. Big ol’ heapin’ helpin’ of backlash.
Think there are any operatives involved in this campaign who have compared Schwarzenegger to a Nazi?
Taos, nice place. I assume you are joking Bill.
They make very nice, big, expensive, shiny belt buckles there. Custom boots, too.
Oooh shiny belt buckles. I remember going to a nearby res and watching a ceremony, ah memories.
Julia -
Liked your post on the coming California Swiftboating. Funny how Bush maintained there was no coordination…then his guy come out to California and next thing you know they’re sailing money over to Arnold.
It’s funny how after the fact some things don’t prove independent of each other.
For those of you who haven’t seen Juls’ post, check out:
http://www.betterca.com/node/1825
Hey Bill, should we expect an LA Weekly endorsement in the Guv race tomorrow or are they staying out of it?
Thanks Tommie
There will be an announcement, Scott.
The LA Weekly was one of the few newspapers in California to endorse Proposition 82.
The new, more moderate owners have not taken full control of the paper yet.
“Nathan Ballard saying: “It wasn’t on Senator Speier’s schedule.”"
Not paticipating seems rather odd…he needs to do better than that…as one of her supporters I would like to see a better explanation than that!…Correction…. I need a better explanation than that…
The Twins ad is pretty decent. We’ll see what South can do in response. He needs to pull another Riordan-killing rabbit out of his hat, pronto!
Killer animals in hats sounds like Rocky and Bullwinkle. If South’s pulling the rabbit, does that make Nick V. a flying squirrel?
Does that make Bob M. and Cathy C. Boris and Natasha?
I tell ya one thing. Arnold is no Duddley Doright.
No but by the time Garry is through with him, he WILL be Snidely Whiplash . . .
Mr. Bradley wrote:”Univision was expecting to tape a face-off between the three candidates today on its Voz y Voto program, Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi and state Senators Jackie Speier and Liz Figueroa”
WHAT A BLOG! You inform us , entertain us , even delete us! you are such a public service!
This item above like so much of what you write is something one would not find reported anywhere else. I knew nothing about Liz Figueroa, for a variety of reasons, mostly related to the work I do, as a legislator, she was just not on my radar. But because of you writing about her, and this race, I just spent the last hour reading about her, visiting her Lt Guv site …I found her bio fascinating, and her interests in school reform and upgrading the lives of poor children very compelling as it relates so much to the volunteer work that I do…Thank you, Mr. Bradley! as we all work thru our choices and decisions for whom to vote for next week and beyond, all your readers certainly owe a great deal to you for your honest, informative, and intrepid reporting!
This has become too much for a man like me to handle. I know that everyone on this blog yields to the will and deft prowess of Gary South as if he were a Roman Emperor, but for the love of god, can we at least admit the guy is not omniscient? This was the guy who rode the Gray Davis bomb like something out of Dr. Strangelove, right?
All I am saying is lets not all fall into the roles of naïf political junkies who have come to worship the man as if we were a gaggle of drunk cheerleaders vying for a date with the starting quarterback.
If anything, you should all be miffed that your guy hasn’t made more out of the 30 or so million dollar advantage his candidate holds in this election. This election has no business being a dead heat.
I’ve tried unsuccessfully to explain a few times why some of us supporting Angelides are able to put aside many of the very fair reservations expressed on here. I think Erin Aubry Kaplan finally summed it up for me in her column in today’s Times. While I disagree with her on the degree that Westly and Angelides differ on their liberal creds, I agree with her overall point…
“I know that Angelides is wealthy, like Westly, and that he’s cozy with Angelo Tsakopoulos, a powerful developer and fellow Greek American with discomfiting influence in state government. And Angelides and Westly have solicited money from the same corrupt source, convicted Chicago businessman Joseph Cari.
Still, if Angelides sticks to the progressive agenda that clearly sets him apart from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Westly and a whole pack of fatally moderate Democrats, I frankly don’t care who his friends are.”
I hold out hope that whoever wins next Tuesday will rally around progressive ideals like Villaraigosa did and not fall into the shift to the center.
As I’ve been, you know, suggesting, this election has obviously not gone according to the master plans of anyone in either campaign. To the extent said master plans actually existed.
I’m not a subscriber to the auteur theory of politics. Just as cinema is a collaborative medium, so too is politics.
I could easily sit here and armchair quarterback both these campaigns.
Actually, I have frequently done just that with the Angelides campaign, which I found strangely inert for several months, as you know.
Ed Emerson “thanked” me for his new job when Phil finally switched him from stateside to the campaign.
That said, this campaign is tight. The calls to be made are not easy.
Take this “Twins” ad. What do you think?
Respond to it, or ride what you have going, which is having an effect.
Respond!
It would be nice to see a positive response touting how Steve is actually very liberal and disagrees with the Governor when he’s wrong but is not such an idealogue that he also disagrees with him when he’s right. That would further solidify his support in the base, win him some points with the moderates who have liked Arnie from time to time too, and would win some points all around for saying something other than the excessive mudslinging this has devolved into.
Why?
What if it is only a feint?
What if it is not a statewide buy?
What if it, in fact, is only intended to play in one or two markets?
What if it is intended to stop you from doing what you are doing?
I pose these questions as possibilities.
Well not knowing the answers to those questions it makes it very hard to answer. I was working under the assumption that it was going to run statewide replacing the other negative ads by Angelides which I haven’t seen as much of. No matter what, I think that Westly’s attacks on Phil’s environmental record have had the impact they’re going to have as they have likely racked up enough points (isn’t that what they’re called?) by now. I think you have to have something positive at the end of a campaign, something to make people feel good about voting for you and not just bad about voting for the other guy.
Admittedly, there are many many people here that know way more about this than I do…just offering up my $0.02
Arnold and Steve sitting in a tree
B-O-N-D-I-N-G
First Phil shoves, then comes dispariage
Then he launches a negative ad barrage. (Missed it by *that* much.
)
On the surface, this new ads looks effective, but gives Steve the opening to launch a positive ad.
He should respond with one of those ‘click’ ads showings the Controller click off the Phil ad and explaining his position (I, like many other democrats, including Sens. Feinstein and Boxer, worked with the Governor. But when he started to attack teachers, firefighters and police, I, like you, was disappointed. That’s why I’m runnng for governor. To stand up for you.) followed by a positive message why Democrats should vote for him.
It would be a great pivot and give the Controller the higher moral ground.
If their media buyer is any good, Westly’s folks should be able to discern in a pretty short time period whether the “twins” ad is real, or if it’s just a head fake.
While I would love to see both run a positive ad based on what they would actually do as Governor, I am not so naive to believe it will actually happen.
Given that the calendar reads May 31 (T minus 6), I have a feeling team Westly is more likely to resort to a Hiroshima bomb of the Riordan “abortion interview” variety.
OK, Bill, you’ve inspired me to play TV commercial producer. Here’s my script…
Looking into the camera:
“I’m Steve Westly, and I’m asking for your vote because I want to solve the problems of this state. When I thought Arnold Schwarzenegger was right on the issues, I supported him. But far too often he’s been wrong on what matters most — breaking his own promises and forcing taxpayers to foot the bill for a costly special election.”
Then a voiceover…with graphics showing newspaper poll results:
“Poll after poll shows that Steve Westly is Democrats’ best chance — maybe their only chance — to beat Schwarzenegger this November.”
Back to Steve…
“I’d be honored to have your vote on June 6.”
Voiceover:
“Steve Westly. Democrat. A different kind of Governor.”
CA Dem, great minds think alike.
Bill says: “As I’ve been, you know, suggesting, this election has obviously not gone according to the master plans of anyone in either campaign. To the extent said master plans actually existed.”
I’ve pretty much concluded that neither campaign has much a master plan other than running a lot of TV ads.
That’s why things have gotten so shrill and repetitive.
And I suspect that the post-mortems will be even more dishonest and self-serving than usual.
Oh, there were grand plans, and not stupid ones, either.
But there is an old saying in military history: Few strategies survive contact with the enemy.
Now, on the question of the long and hotly anticipated “Twins” ad linking Arnold and Steve …
It reminds me of an old story, perhaps apocryphal, about the legendary Democratic elder statesman, super-lobbyist, and former Defense Secretary, Clark Clifford.
Clifford was asked by a client what they should do. He studied the situation, then sent the client a note, which read, in its entirety: “Do nothing.”
Attached was an invoice for $10,000.
The client was not convinced, and replied at length by mail.
Clifford sent another note of advice, which read in its entirely: “Do Nothing.”
Attached was an invoice for another $10,000.
I think the DTS vote will be very important. Even if turned off by Dem primary ..we have a reason to vote because of Prop 82 . I am sure the DTS vote will help to defeat it..we are not anti pre-school but we like benefit programs means-tested and there are many other problems with this measure…originally, I thought we would give Westly the win. I am not sure now….no matter which Dem wins the primary if a significant number of DTS votes go to Arnold then Arnold is the real winner next week…and maybe he deserves to be..because how he has handled his defeat of last fall certainly has told all us more about who he is than all these ADs of the Dem candidates for GUV which ” Thank God” I have not seen much of…My life becomes much more simple if Westly does not win. I replace my Westly bumper sticker with an Arnold one . Then I just focus on tracking the progress of the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act just passed by the Senate, working with other activists on this issue, tracking the progress of the Mayor of LA’s school reform plan in the legislature and continuing my volunteer work at Our Lady of G’s Co-Op educational center for immigrant children. At this point I truly cannot wait until June 6 …because I am ready for CLOSURE on who will be the Democratic candidate for Guv. It all feels very anti-climatic.
I thought that Clark Clifford story might give you pause …
….You are sooooooo sly….so fly….and always….so helpful…can’t wait for that newsbreak…every story has to have a climax …right?
TO MY UTTER LACK OF SURPRISE, THERE IS YET ANOTHER SOPHOMORIC ATTEMPT BY AN UNACKNOWLEDGED ANGELIDES CAMPAIGN SHILL TO POST PROPAGANDA HERE.
READ MY LIPS, SPORT.
REAL NAME. FULL NAME. RELEVANT ASSOCIATIONS.
THEN YOU CAN POST.
WHEN SPIN IS YOUR PRINCIPAL PURPOSE, THAT IS THE RULE.
PLAY SILLY GAMES. GET ZAPPED.
CAPISCE?
We started a new positive ad yesterday. It is running everywhere in CA. Your prayers have been answered, folks.
Hey, Jack Says: “Dr. Strangelove”?! Man, you need to get back on the planet Earth.
Bill — Thank you for the Clark Clifford story. It was funny, relevant and, most importantly, took us out of the spin cycle for a moment.
Your’re welcome.
And it was actually VERY relevant.