The brand new LA Times poll is quite similar to the PPIC poll (although the governor does substantially worse), showing the two Democratic gubernatorial candidates in a statistical dead heat: Phil Angelides 37%, Steve Westly 34%. In general election matchups, Angelides is tied with Arnold Schwarzenegger. Westly leads Schwarzenegger by 10 percent.
In the Democratic primary for attorney general, Jerry Brown leads Rocky Delgadillo, 60% to 27%.
John Garamendi leads Jackie Speier and Liz Figueroa in the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, 30% to 16% and 11%, respectively. Other contested primaries in both parties are very close, largely because voters don’t know much about the candidates.
Movie director Rob Reiner’s tax-the-rich for universal preschool initiative, Proposition 82, clings to a precarious 51% to 43% lead.
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Angelides may not have put it away, but Westly is certainly stagnating. The ‘up-side’ focuses on his continued positive numbers against Arnold, so at this point he should return to positive ads and make electibility against Arnold his closing sell to the undecideds.
I wonder if the LA Times is oversampling liberals again.
Amen, Brother Adam!
Garry – Get those “I can beat Arnold spots” in the can and on the air ASAP!
As they’ve become a party of reaction for the past decade or so, the Dems will dig it. The activists are with Phil right now because he talks a good game against the governor, but if you start showing them they can ACTUALLY BEAT ARNOlD with Westly, they’ll come around.
They care about the war with Republicans and you can hand them a victory in a critical battle. It seems like every poll I have seen, Westly is beating Arnold when Phil isn’t; beating Arnold by more when both Dems best him; or is losing by less when Arnold is ahead.
Basically Westly consistantly does better in the general than Arnold. That is what this is really about.
Sell that, Mr. South. You’ve got a guy with strong progressive values, but who is a little more moderate on taxation, and can WIN!
Phil’s painted a big ol’ target on himself for the Right. Westly can win. Sing it from the mountaintops.
That – Bill is where I want to see the ad war go. Back to positive, issue, and “general election-focused” ads.
Stop the slap-fight.
I bet the “slap-fight” is working.
Working for who?
What did Bill’s article tell you?
That the “slap fight” has kept Westly in there at a time when Angelides was starting to surge.
Opening up a little Westly Whup-Ass seems to have brought him through “the war,” but – as we’ve learned in Iraq – you also have to win the peace.
Westly should stay armed to keep down the Angelides insurgency, but should ALSO (meaning IN ADDITION, not INSTEAD OF) add a positive/electable track.
I think Angelides negatives are worse than Westly’s. Keep them out there.
I think Angelides policy of relying too much and TOO VOCALLY on taxes doesn’t sell. Counter with good policy that will also SELL.
I KNOW (as backed up by many, many surveys – it’s the trend that matters, not the number) that Westly is stronger against the Governor than Phil. Let people know that.
Westly can afford these three messages, and won’t have to resort to running five different ads in five days…which means it’ll be money worth spending – AGAIN Angelides misappropriating campaign resources!
Angelides won’t win the general because his campaign will think they’re hot from winning the primary and continue the same mistakes they’ve made. Angelides won’t win the general because he’ll think you can actually RUN ON A TAX AND ATTACKS, which is what he is doing now.
For the sake of My Party, Garry – PLEASE! – take this guy out. I’m worried about the future.
Gotta run now. Off to the Golden Arches:
Double Quarter Pounder meal – LARGE – w/ Mr. Pibb
3 Piece Chicken Selects w/ Buffalo Sauce
Yummy.
The new X-Men movie opened with a $44.1 million domestic box office yesterday, second biggest opening day ever (behind the last Star Wars).
Is electability a selling point to Dems? Most of the Dems I run into still feel burned by Kerry ’04 … if pragmatic political calculation doesn’t yield results, one is more inclined to resort to ideological purity (such as it is), even if c.w. or polling suggests a lower probability of a favorable outcome. In this case, many Dems I know are already selling themselves on Angelides’ chances.
Much better than anticipated result for Westly. Knowing the LA Times, they will spin this as “comeback kid” Angelides being in the lead.
Agree 100% with Adam. Go get ‘em, Garry!
No, the LAT is playing it as a toss-up.
OK Bill if Garry South were an X-Man who would he be?
I don’t know. I do know that I took that Sac Bee quiz that Barbara recommended and turned out to be Professor Xavier.
lol – I vote Havok wiht a touch of Wolverine . . .
I only know the movies. Who is Havok?
Can’t you see the ad?
All those newspaper mastheads swirling in and out, while the textual boxscores show Westly beating Arnold again and again and again, and there behind the numbers is handsome Steve Westly, first in black and white, now sharpening into color as he looks into the camera and says, “Join me, I need your help to bring California into a brighter and bolder future.” (behind him a sea of orange t-shirted supporters)
Anyway…..
Actually, I know more than the movies, but not a whole lot more, just about the characters in the movies mostly. I do remember coming across a story in which the nefarious Hellfire Club was depicted. One of the members was … Arnold Schwarzenegger!
Havok is a mutant possessing the power to absorb ambient cosmic energy, process it and emanate it from his body as waves of plasma in the form of a blast or discharge, with a tell-tale concentric circle pattern. These waves will emanate from his body in all directions unless he purposefully tries to channel them in a single direction, usually along the length of his arms. This results in control over an extremely powerful sort of destructive force. He is immune to the adverse effects of most forms of radiation and heat.
With how tired I have been for several months, I can assure you that I do not have the power to absorb ambient cosmic energy. Would that I did. What about me reminds you of Havok?
no I meant Garry South . . .
Oh, got it. I suppose Prof X isn’t the worst result on that quiz.
If you ask Phil Angelides, he’d say Garry is Magneto.
Which begs the question of who PA would be — I vote for a male version of Mystique – shapeshifter . . . from developer to environmentalist to ?????
Try to avoid a campaign flame fest.
You wrote:Proposition 82, clings to a precarious 51% to 43% lead.
Why do you consider this lead “precarious?” I am so worried this will pass.
Prof X is a fabulous character Mr. Bradley!…and he a major player in ALL the lives and many of the outcomes of poltical mutants…
Bill, both LA Times articles today on Westly were ridiculously biased. Why not just go that extra mile and crown Angelides the comeback kid? It seems they really have it in for Westly. I guess he’s not liberal enough for them.
I voted for 82 becasue I think preschool is a must. I was lucky enough to find a small private school for my son. If you are a mom with children around age 4, good luck finding a school with openings. Lets start our future colllege grads out on the right foot.
82 – Pleeeeze. So couples making $799,000 will get free childcare? Plus another incentive for the Incline Village, NV real estate development Act.
Elect Jerry Brown governot to join me as the only three term governor in California history.
Culbert–you are not as annoying as the spinners but it is getting old fast…
P.S. – I don’t see the office of “Governot” listed on the ballot.
Bill, “governot” is a brilliant Freudian slip. It can be used in many situations.
The AP wire just picked up the LA Times Barnes & Noble story. Not good for Westly. Not good at all.
What’s the Westly spin on this one?
We have a governator why not a governot? It is the Hypocritic Oath, first do no harm.
This week Westly got “Mulhollanized”. Set ‘em up, then knock ‘em down 1) Joe Kline add to raise eyebrows 2) FAT CAT to build stereotyped perception 3) Barnes & Nobles story breaks nationwide to close the deal
No newsbreak tonight?
Beaver -
If your going to reference your chosen candidate’s hatchet job commercials, at least get the facts right!
It’s Joe Cari. Not Joe Kline.
I don’t think I’m voting for you in the next young Dems election! Oh, wait – I’m not a member!
I wouldn’t sully the name of Bobby M. with what the three things you mentioned, either. I think – like most resources Phil has at his disposal – Bobby M. has been under/mis-utilized.
1) Joe CARI ad will call down the thunder on the MILLIONS of dollars the LA Times reported from people with PERS business to Angelides…Cari gave a few thousand! That article acknowledges a lot of money to Westly from PERS investors/contractors…but more than TWICE AS MUCH to Angelides. $4.5 million…I bet you’ll hear that number more than Larry H. Parker’s “2.1 million.”
2) Fat Cat – other than the staffs, hard core supporters and junkies on blogs like this one, nobody knows about or gives a shit about a guy in a cat suit. If stunts like that mattered, other than for the self-satisfaction of the guy inside who actually thinks he’s “participating in the process,” I’m sure Westly camp would buy a couple pairs of these ( http://shop.wizardschest.com/browse.cfm/4,2832.htm ) and have somebody parking a rented bulldozer at each of Phil’s environmental innoculation events. These things don’t matter. They are political masturbation. If a person makes up their mind on the Governor’s race on a guy in a cat suit, they should be disenfranchised…or possibly killed.
3) So, you’re saying B.M. planted the story with the Times on Westly’s Barnes and Noble F-Up? Then he better watch out because you know the Westly side has done just as much oppo on Phil as Phil has done on them. And Phil’s had a lot longer time running and in office to accumulate skeletons. See Point One…and then some.
A few weeks ago, I remember Garry South excusing Healthpoint/Joe Cari as an “isolated incident” (or something like that). Since then, the LA Times has written two more stories about Westly working behind the scenes to help campaign contributors. This latest one just takes the cake. A $22 million tax break! Isn’t he the guy who boasts about COLLECTING taxes?
I’m not saying Angelides is a saint. But I’m amazed by Westly. I hope they have a good answer for this one.
I hope they do too. It’s a terrible story.
Still you point out a handful of pieces on Westly but leave out the one story on Angelides that rolled four or five of the same types of deals together, and had an astounding number in it, $4.5 millon!
That’s the amount of contributions that Angelides has received from interests doing business with the pension funds. Westly was under $2 million – which ain’t good – but Angelides is over $4.5 million!!! Damn!!!
That’s the kind of stuff that could make good government types wake up in a cold sweat.
And then there’s Angelidolous.
I saw Garry use “Angelopolous,” but like mine more. It brings more of Phil into the term. Garry’s could be confused with truncating Angelo and Tsakopolous, not Angelides and Tsakopolous.
As Barbara said, “It’s the new Bennifer!”
Tommy,
What you getting so worked up about buddy, hit a nerve or something? I know it’s tough your boss has a bad story being floated by the biggest paper in CA, and it might, just might get picked up by other news agencies across CA, and if it does, that’s probabley the elction right there. But hey, take it easy, you’re over there getting all bent out of shape. I mean we’re just on here enjoying the soothing writings of Bill Bradley, just having fun. It seems every time you go on a tangent about “blah blah blah”, you need to learn something political messaging is about a 4 second attention span, and after that whatever is said is inconsequential, so shorten it up, have a little fun, and learn a thing or two, about a thing or two from the profound Bill Bradley.
A) Not my boss.
B) Horrible story and makes me a little pissed at the guy I support.
C) This story is not the election. Sorry. It’s no more the election than the $4.5 million that your guy got from people with PERS interests.
D) Not bent out of shape. I just find it amusing to poke at you…if only because “Dan R.” isn’t around. I don’t have awesome friends in silly cat suits to pal around with.
E) People around here obviously have an attention span of more than 4 seconds. They know way, way, way too much about each other and this race. So maybe you should learn something about messaging, too. Know your audience.
E – part two) Send your four second attention span over to your homies at Team Angelides, if people are going to get your message you can’t waste a valuable (and expensive) week of airtime running four different ads, and then when you settle on one have it contain three different messages.
F) I suspect class is over for Professor Bradley for the night. I also suspect he has turned to turning off his Blackberry at these wee small hours of the morning, because he’s tired of all of us.
TTFN! Go read the story on Angelo in the Times.
And tell your buddy this http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=mrfatcat is cute!
I have only seen his silly little blog. It’s nice to see his moves.
Re: Barnes & Noble…wasn’t Westly just trying to negotiate a settlement with them to collect some of the tax bill owed? Because we didn’t settle with them, the thing is stuck in court.
Westly’s “settlement” was to allow the company to skate free from its back taxes.
Ann, not true. It was to collect a portion of that tax bill. The question of whether the state should tax the Internet operation of a traditional brick and mortar store is a close legal question that was not resolved until 2005. The outcome was uncertain in 2004, and I see how a settlement could have made sense at the time. That said, the email Westly sent was pretty dumb. Not that Angelides hasn’t done as bad or worse.
Sounds to me like he pushed to forgive a lot of back taxes for this company that other companies were already paying. I’ve been buying things online for years and always paying sales tax when the company operates in the real world of California.
“Using his position on a state tax board, Westly joined Barnes & Noble’s push in 2004 to be forgiven as much as $22.8 million in sales taxes, interest and penalties — money owed for years of not collecting sales tax on goods sold online. Westly, a Democrat, has been campaigning for governor as an opponent of corporate tax loopholes.
“Barnes & Noble has more than 100 stores in California. But it has contended that because its online operation is based elsewhere, its Internet sales are not subject to California taxes. State auditors have rejected that argument, and the company took the case to court.
“Westly began lobbying the tax board to overrule the auditors and settle the case at a time when the state was already extracting back sales taxes from other businesses with far more tenuous connections to California. His effort ultimately failed; the case remains in court.”
Glory be, lookie here. The Los Angeles Times says Angelo Tsakopoulos is a big fat special interest with a pet candidate for governor sitting on his shoulder. Who knew? lol
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-angelo28may28,1,4350683.story?coll=la-headlines-california
There is a very disturbing article in theSac Bee this morning. It details Angelo’s son’s attempts thru an IE and campaign contributions from his father’s business partners around the country to defeat a moderate REp for a more conservative REp . Why Because it is good for business and what is good for Angelo’s business is good for California! This is a brazen attempt to make a land grab in Placer county. This is serious. This is intimidating. This is who this family is, and they are handnpicking the next Dem candidate….how do you Democrats feel about this great Dem picking a more conservative candidate to fund over the moderate?…Kaufman thinks everyone wants to talk about immigration and gas prices..NO I want to talk about Angelo and his hold on Angelides !!!!…
Do you have a link to that article? Sounds like a doozy!
It’s on the main compendium site, Rough & Tumble, http://www.rtumble.com.