** I’ll be real time blogging from the California Democratic convention via BlackBerry at times during the day. This will include during the speeches this morning of Democratic gubernatorial candidates Steve Westly and Phil Angelides.
Here’s a link to that LA Times Poll showing a big Westly lead. Most delegates don’t know about this yet. It should have an impact on their attitudes, which are mostly pro-Angelides, if they find out. (Conventions are little cocoons, somewhat impervious to outside events and other versions of reality.) It will be interesting to see how quickly the Westly people pivot on this information and get it to the delegates. In campaigns I was in, it would already have been duplicated and slipped under every hotel room door in the downtown Sacramento area.
The dynamic of this campaign is pretty clearcut, and should already be familiar to all readers. If Angelides is to have a hope of coming back, he will attack Westly. The Arnold Schwarzenegger folks are convinced it will begin soon. Their read indicates that the positive messaging for Angelides did not work and that it is actually later in the campaign than the calendar — which tells us that the primary is five-and-a-half weeks away — would otherwise indicate. That’s because TV advertising takes longer to make an impression on voters now than it used to. Voters are viewers and viewers are consumers. Consumers are inundated by thousands of commercial messages every day. They tend to blur. And voters are increasingly jaded by politics and politicians. Especially politicians who come off as stock politicians.
Westly’s positive messaging and image positioning have been pooling with viewers for two months. He could still be defeated, it is not impossible, although the most likely scenario for a primary defeat would center on his own mistakes. The credibility of any attack on him will immediately be called into question. And of course his campaign would counter any attack, with more than ample resources to do so.
Most experts I’ve talked to agree that the independent expenditure campaign for Angelides is problematic, for reasons already familiar to readers. There is a penumbra of controversy around it now, not unlike the recent situation with Rob Reiner. It’s highly unlikely that group would be used as a vehicle for a TV assault on Westly, even if its funder, Sacramento development kingpin and longtime Angelides patron and partner Angelo Tsakopoulos, were interested in doing that. Leaders of the firefighters union tell me that they will not allow themselves to be associated with that sort of venture and the consultant doing the advertising, David Townsend, tells me that he will only do positive ads promoting Angelides.
I’ve learned that leaders of the California Labor Federation, the AFL-CIO’s statewide organization, are against an Angelides assault on Westly and have communicated that to the campaign. So we are in for an interesting time.
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This feels like it’s over. The new Angelides ad is terrible.
It would seem to me to be not insignificant that the poll also shows a whopping 45% undecided. While things look terrible for Phil right now, there are a lot minds out there yet to be made up it would seem. Should be interesting tonight then we’ll see what happens tomorrow.
Never say never.
The Times poll has a higher undecided than other private polling.
In polling, you look for the direction, not the numbers per se. The direction is clear.
Then the question becomes, what does the losing campaign do to attempt to change the trend line?
And how do those scenarios play out?
Phil Angelides… is perhaps the best-trained loser-in-waiting the California Democratic Party has ever produced.
Phil’s boxed himself in with the tax increases. I don’t know if that’s repairable.
To me it’s simple. There were a bunch of moderate Dems that crossed over and voted for Arnold. These moderates are not going to embrace more taxes, especially now when we are being squeezed at the gas pump. Given a choice of unknown more taxes with Phil or the status quo with “just float a bond” Arnold, many of the centrist Dems will probably vote for Arnold. Westly’s centrist positions would seem to have the best shot at getting the vote of the crossovers and beating Arnold.
(Angelides Volunteer at the convention)
The thing about Phil’s tax plan is that, it’s basically supported by 79% of Democrats. (See the PPIC education poll). In that poll, 79% of Democrats said that they support increased taxes on the wealthy to fund education. Phil’s just gotta tap that base for the primary.
Here’s the thing about undecideds: They almost never turn around and go wholesale to the trailing candidate. Usually, to the contrary, they go disporportionately to the candidate with a sizeable lead. That would be Westly in this case. So let’s not engage in a lot of navel-contemplation about the undecideds. For months, Phil has enjoyed higher name ID than Westly (that has now changed, as of this week). If they knew Phil better from the beginning but still didn’t move to him, why would anyone believe they would now do so en masse? Not the way undecideds work.
A note to Jamus Lynch: Demos may support the concept of a tax-the-rich scheme for education (per PPIC poll), but when has Phil told Democratic primary voters that’s what he’s actually proposing? That particular “plank” hasn’t been mentioned in a single one of the four ads he’s run so far. So if you think Phil can turn it around with his soak-the-rich proposal, when do you expect he will go up with his first TV ad touting tax increases? (Hint: I would urge you not to hold your breath.)
My convention thoughts of the day:
1) I agree with Gary again. I actually got to go to the convention with young dems. As you all know I support Westly. Sure, it was clear that Angelides was going to win the endorcement, and sure he is exactly what the Democrats are looking for in a candidate, but a true Democrat is not going to beat Arnold. We need someone in the middle or slightly to the right like Westly. We do not need someone who is going to go out there and make this state ‘better’ We just need a status quo candidate who can get the seat back and then maybe do something his 2nd term like Gray Davis.
2) I do not think the endorcement is going to mean much. The problem for Angelides is that my boy Stevey can just dump his fortune into the race and buy more commercials. I heard he already put in like 20 million or something. That is devotion. You cannot mess with my boy cause he is charming and has way more money than you will ever have Philly. I too saw the bright orange ‘you cannot buy my vote Steve’ t-shirts, but sorry Angelides, you can, and we will!
3) I was waivered slightly by the speaches. Angelides was nothing short of presidental. Steve was aiight. But in the end of the day, Steve is more friendly and less nerdy. He talks a great talk. He has bloggers like Gary. He is my boy for life!!!!!!!!!
4) Is it bad to think that some of the girls walking to prom were pretty hot?
5) the worst part of my weekend was not meeting ‘boss hog of the blog’ Bill Bradley. Then again I do not know what you look like, but trust me BB, i was searching those name tags like no other!!!! I love you mane.
True playa for real,
Stan ‘free convention booze = great’ Brean
Stan, I operate in even stealthier mode than the Democratic gubernatorial candidates!
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