Can Phil Angelides come back?
That’s the question just two days before delegates gather in the Democratic gubernatorial candidate’s hometown of Sacramento for the annual California Democratic Party convention. The party’s pre-primary endorsement once seemed his for the taking. Now, says Angelides press secretary Brian Brokaw: “Our goal is to get the most votes” of the delegates. The endorsement requires much more than that, 60 percent of the vote. There are signs a separate campaign on his behalf is picking up some steam. But trouble still abounds.
Until very recently, virtually all the experts picked the two-term state treasurer and former state Democratic chairman as the slam dunk choice for the party’s nomination to run against Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. That was before ex-eBay honcho-turned-state Controller Steve Westly toned up his candidacy with a test market tour of smaller, more outlying areas of California. That was also before he launched an effective TV advertising drive presenting his upbeat, moderately liberal persona. And before it struck more than a few Democrats that in order to go up against a governor who was once the biggest movie star in the world, it might be a good idea to have a candidate who is good on television.
Responding to Westly’s late February move onto television, Angelides went on the air only two days later, nearly matching him at times in spending. But Westly moved forward and, according to the Field Poll, Angelides’ favorable rating among Democrats during his continuous month of TV advertising actually declined even though there were no ads attacking him. An impromptu April 5 debate between the two men on a Univision program, preceded by the only Angelides-organized rally of the year, this to attack Westly as an Arnold apologist, led to a strong Westly showing head to head with the treasurer and commenced a three-week period of mostly public drift for the once frontrunning Angelides campaign.
Now, with private Democratic polls of swing legislative districts indicating a continuing Westly lead, Angelides is trying to mount a comeback, attempting to tamp down expectations for the Democratic convention he had been expected to dominate, going back on the air with his own TV ad, and thankful for the multi-million dollar help of his longtime patron and former business partner, Angelo Tsakopoulos.
The Sacramento development kingpin and his daughter have funded a controversial independent expenditure campaign, spending $5 million for two weeks airing of an ad featuring the endorsement of firefighters and police unions. The ad was produced by veteran Democratic consultant David Townsend, a longtime Tsakopoulos associate who most recently worked with the developer on a plan to build a new arena for the National Basketball Association’s Sacramento Kings. I spoke with Townsend yesterday as he made the drive to San Francisco for the Giants-New York Mets baseball game.
According to the consultant, who has worked with many top Democratic politicians, the establishment of the Tsakopoulos-backed Californians for a Better Government group and launch of his ad is prompting other Angelides supporters to come forward and fund a third week of advertising.
“Folks who couldn’t afford to do their own IE (independent expenditure),” says Townsend, “for Phil are starting to come forward for this effort. I think it’s coming together.”
“Voters still don’t know who these guys (the two Democratic candidates) are. The primary is still fluid,” he asserts. “Steve doesn’t have this thing in the bag.”
For his part, Angelides yesterday chose the man-bites-dog scenario of pitching his notion of higher taxes on the wealthy and closing corporate tax loopholes at the California Chamber of Commerce conference in Sacramento. But the move didn’t get much press coverage. And the “exact” plan as he dubbed it three weeks ago when he unveiled it at his anti-Westly rally, is still pretty vague.
If Angelides is going to come back, he is going to to have to demonstrate that his brand of leadership is clearly superior to Westly’s. The self-proclaimed candidate of substance needs to be able to answer the where’s-the-beef question with more than a paragraph or two in lieu of a plan. And he is going to have to get out around the state and generate some public enthusiasm. Three weeks after launching his assault on Westly, very little of that has happened. The primary election is now less than six weeks away.
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Yesterday, Angelides strategy to drum up enthusiasm was to go before the Chamber of Commerce and call for tax increases. According to the Sac Bee, some people walked out. I don’t understand this at all. What did Angelides possibly hope to accomplish by speaking in front of this group?
We can talk on this blog all we want whether Phil can come back from the dead, but the bottom line is that regardless of how well-intentioned his proposals are, there is no way CA voters will send Arnold packing in favor of a guy who unabashedly proposes to raise their taxes. Not to mention that these tax hikes will be DOA in the legislature and unlikely to pass via initiative. It might be sensible policy, but it’s horrible politics. I have heard more than one Democrat tell me that if Phil becomes the nominee they strongly will consider a vote for Arnold.
This is not to say that Westly is Mr. Perfect, or that he can beat the Governor in the fall. He still has a lot of work to do and needs to stop touting this ridiculous lottery plan that won’t pay for anything. But at least he’s potentially electable and not going around telling people his top priority will be to raise their taxes.
Good morning Bill. Over my morning tea, I see Phil gets ignored by the Chamber for warning of his ‘plan’ to raise taxes. Arnold is getting campaign donations from the big oil companies. Steve is running a ad featuring himself as a public school parent.
I do need to stop a fill up my tank ($3.49) a gallon, on the way to drop off the kids at public school…thinking about a proposed sales tax increase,in my city…who do you think I will vote for?
No.
Key word: “upbeat…”
OK, fine. Have your cake and eat it too. Don’t raise taxes, even though Reagan and Wilson did (correct me if I am wrong). Keep running this state’s finances like some out of control addict from Gambler’s Anonymous at the craps table. Sacrifice social service, education and other state expenditures so we can keep the worshippers of the almighty dollar happy. Oh, God forbid we ever make them unhappy.
the key to getting voters to accept the need for tax increases is to restore credibility to state government, which requires reform and structural changes that are opposed by public sector unions and some buy in by the business community.
Phil lacks credibility in confronting the reform side of this issue, and needs to look for a ‘sista soulja’ moment that shows he’s willing to make tough decisions that affect his allies.
But he is at least trying to get voters to face fiscal reality.
And thanks to Bill for another ‘breaking news’ post and incisive analysis.
So the real question is, does the government really collect all that is owed and get back as much as possible of money that is sent to DC, and spend so efficiently that there is no room to try to do better? Or do we just go for taxes to fix the “budget problem”. I think the answer is obvious.
Phil did exactly the right thing yesterday: telling people what they need to hear instead of what they want to hear. In fact, he did get decent press in Sacramento (stealing the headline from the Governor in the Bee, for example) and good TV and radio coverage.
He’s been clear with a strategy to speaks to hard core Democrats. Whether there are enough of them to win the primary remains to be seen. But unless I’m out of it, I detect zero excitement out there about this primary (other than the bloggers here!) and nothing to bring out the moderates Westly needs on the initiative front. Expect this to be a record low turnout primary. And with that, despite a poor campaign, a very real possibility of a win for Angelides.
The big fat (Greek) lady hasn’t sung yet.
This is so revealing of why Angelides would be made mincemeat by Schwarzeneger. “Good coverage” for Angelides’ big speech IN SACRAMENTO. He “stole the headline from the Governor in the Bee.” You don’t say.
I believe that Phil Angelides will carry Sacramento. It is his home town. Too bad he can’t be pried out of there. Too bad he has no message for any but “hardcore Democrats.”
…remember Bush Sr’s quote…read my lips, no new taxes….
…remember Mondale’s quote…Mondale who?
Phil’s gonna lose this baby on electibility. That’s the way it’s shaping up.
And he doesn’t get it. Or he flat-out resents it.
Which is the main problem with his latest spot featuring his daughters. Once again it suggests that the man himself is too untelegenic and too uncharismatic to appear in his own ads, so he once again trots out his attractive daughters in a far too cutesy Brady Bunch style.
Substance, even if he develops more, will not win out against style, I’m sorry, but the opponent is a highly likeable movie star. That’s just the way it is. No point bemoaning it anymore.
Phil: who are you, man?
I’m undecided on the use of his adult daughters. I wonder how they focus-group. Who is making the ads?
is anyone really suprised? angelides is possibly the most losing-est candidate in california history (not including people with no chance of winning like say peter camejo).
Similar to what C Weise’s example is the recent race for San Diego Mayor– the establishment candidate promised a pain free fix of budget and pension woes while the outsider had as a plank that taxes would have to be raised to fix things. Guess who won? And guess who turned out to be right eventually?
Angelides doesn’t even get points for telling the truth becausee his plan is full of holes (and I know Bill has expressed frustration that despite repeated requests to have more details the plan continues to be vague).
I know this board is a hotbed of “24″ fans (and I can appreciate the appeal after the few times I have eyeballed it) but let me put in a good word for my gal Veronica Mars. Due to sports the latest episode aired in L.A. this morning at 1 a.m. And I stayed up to see it. And it rocked. Hope the CW network is smart and includes Ms. Mars in its fall lineup.
Mr. Bradley, your posts, like this one, are always at like 6am – don’t you ever sleep?
You remind me of those Chuck Norris lines going around: http://4q.cc/index.php?pid=top100&person=chuck
“Chuck Norris does not sleep. He waits.”
perhaps, Bill Bradley does not sleep. He waits.
The bloggers and the media crack me up! Really, nobody cares about who wins the primary, just the die hard Dems and the small capital community. It’s funny how everyone is jumping on the bandwagon that Westley has this lead and OMG, Angelides is losing ground.
I have two words: independent expenditure! Rather than focus on what the field poll says, the lottery plan, the tax plan . . . let’s really focus on what’s going on here? Campaign finance reform. The fact that Westly has oodles of money to pump more money infuriates me. Sure, I don’t want my taxes raised but c’mon people; that should be a red flag that Mr. Millionaire is buying his way into the governor’s office just as he did when he ran for controller. I repeat, “buying his way into the governor’s office.”
I’m sure most of you will agree that if ole Stevie had to raise money for his campaign, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. How much money has he raised independently? A cool $4 million. WOW!
And one more thing, the bloggers seem a bit biased to me. Most people still don’t have an opinion of both Dems and yet when I read this, everyone seems to have the attitude of ‘nyah-nyah-nyah’ and sticking out there tongues to Phil.
The real target here is Arnold – have you people forgotten? I’m still undecided myself and have no opinion one way or the other?
I think the question we have to ask ourselves is which candidate can stand up to Arnold with muscle and meat? Who’s giving real solutions? Who has the plan to know policy well enough to match Arnold and his cronies?
I suspect wherein lies Westly campaign staffers, er uh, bloggers, no?
nice rant.
the only real question is who can win.
Bill, how much has Westly raised from people whose last names aren’t Westly? The 4m seems low. And how much of Phil’s money came from his Treasurer’s account (raised sans hard money limits)?
To the contrary Tony. I care about this Primary and I am anything but a hard core Dem. Forget about the labels that separate the parties for a moment. Do we not all agree that we Californians are in desparate need of effective leadership in the Governor’s office? On one side of the aisle we are going to have Arnold. On the other side, we better have an individual that is prepared to lead and that has a clear vision and ACTION PLAN for California.
I am watching, reading and learning about everything I can about these candidates. I am trying to understand their platforms, what drives them and discern how they will lead California. I’ll be honest that my registration as a democrat takes a back seat to the overriding need for a Governor that will unite both republicans and democrats for the common cause that is a better-funded, more efficiently run California. At the end of the day, my vote will always go to the candidate most qualified to realize the goal of correcting the ills of California. The most effective leaders are men and women of vision that carry out a plan to achieve goals that serve the greater good. Who we select to be our choice against Arnold is a very critical and important decision for all of us. We do care.
Angelides or Westly?
There is the issue of which can actually get elected. It is about more than ads on TV, the need for actual campaigning and about who screamed louder at rallies about what a bad guy Arnold is. Which man has THE ACTION PLAN and the ability to make it reality?
I want to know exactly how raising taxes will solve the problems we face. I want to also know how we can solve the problems we face without raising taxes. I want to know how the democratic candidate in the general is prepared to talk about immigration issues facing California (and yes, I do mean direct and indirect issues relating to immigration – schools, health care, infrastructure, wages and the genereal economy, etc.) How will each prepare California for the nurse and teacher shortages we will face?
How about the significant projected effects of aging Californians’ strain on our health, social and financial systems? How is each going to ensure that we have middle-class jobs still here in California in eight years? How is each going to protect the social contract between employers and laborers while providing appropriate protections for each? Who has a plan for reducing Californians’ demand for energy and what is it?
How will each reverse the trend of the dropout rate? Who will focus on creating more effective teachers rather than simply protecting them and paying them more (I think we need to pay them more and make them more effective.) How will each create greater access to public colleges and universities, increase their quality and reduce costs?
We need the individual with the answers to these questions. They should be “electable.” I would argue that now more than ever we need someone that is a uniter and not always divisive. Remember, this is about California, not either party, right? Who will get us where we need to go?
In the good-natured fun of movie quotes: “Well, we’re waiting!” (anyone?)
Let’s remember this is a PRIMARY. The audience for this round is hardcore Democrats — for now. My prediction: record low turnout.
I think there’s an overwhelming concensus among those in the know is that Westly will be a better candidate against Arnold, and Phil would be a better governor. Dems need to figure out what serves them best in the short- and long-term.
Interesting point Rob! ‘Westly will be a better candidate against Arnold, and Phil would be a better governor.’ I gotta use that one!
“CA Dem” (blogger) mentions about $4 million to be a bit low that Westly has raised. That’s the point that I’m trying to get at!! According to the Secretary of State’s Office, Westly has put approximately $22 million into his campaign. Isn’t anyone fired up about this? I’m just suspect of someone who’s a multi-millionaire ($225 million) buying his way into the Governor’s office.
Lastly, did anyone read today’s Washington Post with the title, “In California, It’s Wonk vs. Hunk.” Don’t we have a “hunk” now?
No thank you!
So who’s your guy gonna be Santiago?
Tony: I said $4M is low because I think your figure is inaccurate. I think the real number is more like double that. And I also think that Phil raised around half of his campaign warchest while as treasurer, without the $22,300 cap. Bill, I’d love your help with this, because I don’t know exactly where to look to find out.
Rob: I see no such “overwhelming consensus.” If you listen to the Phil supporters, they will tell you that Phil will be the better Governor. Listen to the Steve supporters, and they will say it’s Steve who will be the more effective and pragmatic as Governor. Both Phil and Steve are plenty smart and qualified. Despite having run in only one previous election, Steve appears the superior politician, at least for now.
PS: That WaPo editorial was terrible.
It will be the guy that lays out the most effective plan that has legs (not the candidate’s, the plan’s legs.) Have all of my questions been answered? Not yet.
My questions have not been answered. Certainly Phil’s team must have gone through all the other options before determining that taxes were the only way out of the budget hole. I was hoping that he could share his wealth of data on this subject. I would not expect that turning to taxes would be his first option considering his long experience in State politics. Although it sounds like Mr Bradley is having a hard time getting the details of Phils tax plan out him so maybe I shoudl not hold my breath…
Hey CADem, when it comes to stats, no one is asking what you think. We want to know what he has actually spent, not what you think he has spent or whther you think Tony is right or wrong.
I think CA Dem is a Westly staffer.
None of these two (or three) will solve the state’s problems.
You want change? Let’s work on getting a slightly more representative legislature rather than the gerrymander we currently enjoy.
As for now, Phil is digging for the left and Steve is digging to the (kinda) right.
I’d be interested in seeing what the demographics are – along those lines – of the Demo party…
Is it correct that they called Steve a Hunk? He barely has more personality/charisma then Angelides. I heard, and this could be hearsay, that his own staffers call Westly “Mr. Roboto.” He kind of does seem Robotic, then again, Phil’s personality has been compared to that of an undertaker.
Tony:
“I’m just suspect of someone who’s a multi-millionaire ($225 million) buying his way into the Governor’s office.”
I assume you are referring to Tsakopoulos, correct?
In all seriousness, everyone should stop worrying about how each of these candidates got here. The fact is they are here and they are all millionaires. The reality sucks that you pretty much have to have millions to jump into any race these days. We should get serious about finding answers to the important questions and determining who’s plan will better serve all Californians. I am convinced that whomever that is will win. Whichever candidate wins the primary will need all democrats to open up their wallets to help beat Arnold.
Actually, Mr. T’s net worth is substantially more that $225m, but he has only spent $4m — Westly, however, has spent $22m — just clarifying.
Given Tsakopoulos’ net worth, I do not see why everyone thinks this IE is so shady. He doen’t need any quid pro quos — the guy is almost a billionaire. What he does want, however, is to see a Greek hold the second most powerful office in the US. Granted, whether or not CA governor is the second most powerful office in the US is debatable. But when a person is in charge of the sixth largest economy in the world, they are pretty fricken powerful.
That being said, I don’t think the Tsakopoulos IE has as much to do with quid pro quos and subsequent pecuniary gain for Tsakopoulos as it does with the fact that he just really wants to see a Greek hold such a prestigious office. The Greek community is extremely close-knit — think “Big Fat Greek Wedding.” The Greeks are extremely proud people who support their own much in the same manner as Jewish people. As a result, Greek Americans are the second-wealthiest ethnic group per capita in the US.
All right, I see a bunch of crap happening here while I have been in a long lunch meeting.
You are in my house.
Knock it off. Now.
Are you talking to me Bill?
Are any more polls due to be coming out? Anything before the Dems doings this weekend?
ATTENTION: “Sam Park”
spark
SMTP error from remote mailer after RCPT TO::
host mx2.comcast.com [208.17.35.40]: 550 Mailbox unavailable or access denied -
—— This is a copy of the message, including all the headers. ——
Return-path:
for “Sam’s” fake e-mail address; Wed, 26 Apr 2006 18:19:03 -0400
Mime-Version: 1.0 (Apple Message framework v734)
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Message-Id: Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; delsp=yes; format=flowed
To: “Sam’s” fake e-mail address
From: William Bradley
Subject:
Date: Wed, 26 Apr 2006 15:19:00 -0700
X-Mailer: Apple Mail (2.734)
Since your principal purpose on my blog is to spin on behalf of a
campaign, you now have to identify yourself in public.
I don’t get it. What is all that stuff. Sorry my email address is .net, not .com. How about you allow people to clarify for their mistakes before you accuse them of spinning.
This is not a debate.
If I get a bunch of random emails, I am going to sue you for publishing that on your blog, Mr. Bradley. You better delete the posts with my email address, or you will hear from my attorney.
Hey Tony, it is impossible for anyone to regulate the money that Westly is putting into his campaign. The Supreme Court ruled in Buckley v. Valeo that it is unconstitutional to ban a person from spending their own money on their campaign. It is legal and in the public’s interest to regulate the amount others can contribute to a campaign.
Bill, with complete respect, let me briefly respond to Sam Park.
Not only am I not a Westly staffer, I’m barely even a Westly supporter. The only check I’ve gotten from Westly was my tax refund. Perhaps you didn’t read the post above where I call the Westly lottery plan “ridiculous.” I think both candidates leave a lot to be desired. Phil’s campaign has been marked by one asinine decision after another. Dan Walters hit the nail on the head a while ago when he said both campaigns aren’t being straight with us on the deficit or other issues that will influence our lives as Californians for years to come.
“Sam Park,” you will identify yourself or be banned from this site.
I posted the e-mail bouncback to demonstrate your lack of good faith here.
YOU provided what you now say is your actual e-mail address, thus indemnifying me through your own negligence.
You can, of course, sue yourself.
Good point — I could sue myself. The point is, Bill, that if you take the email address in the posting of the bouncback, and then you take the fact that I said in my next post that my email is .net, and not. com, then it would not take a rocket-scientist to figure out my email. So how about you go ahead and delete the bouncback post, so that I do not get random emails — I do not want my privacy invaded by people who do not agree with what I have to say.
Mail bomb in 3…2…1…
Just kidding!
Well, clearly you were not a rocket scientist there, were you?
No. I apologize. I just want the bounceback post deleted, please.
Boy, I can’t wait for the fun when Weintraub starts taking comments!
Look out Sam -
The comments here have become a have for “Fleshlight” spam…now it could be headed to your box. And it’ll happen, too. I had a very well guarded account. Never used it on any sites to sign up for lists. Never really gave it to anyone other than family. No spam for over two years. A damn miracle if you ask me. Get sloppy one night. Plug it in signing up for one blog…Hello, fake diplomas and “the guy from NIgeria!”
Well, that’s disappointing that Mr. Bradley posted Sam’s email address.
This is my last blog. Good luck all . . . it’s been fun!
Tommy Boy, I had the tech guy install stronger anti-spam protection. One side effect is that people can no longer post comments with more than one web link within.
Phil, I’ve warned Dan about this. Apparently, you will be able to comment on all Bee stories. Now there is a thought.