In a Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll embargoed until just after midnight, state Controller Steve Westly has overtaken Treasurer Phil Angelides, the longtime frontrunner, in the Democratic primary for Governor of California. Westly has come from behind to lead by a single point, 23 percent to 22 percent. The poll was conducted over a week ago, from March 15 to March 22, and does not reflect the impact of more recent TV advertising.
Proposition 82, the Preschool For All initiative sponsored by movie director Rob Reiner — who yesterday resigned under fire as chairman of the California Children and Families Commission — is in very perilous territory. Upon the poll’s completion, it led by only 52 percent to 41 percent. The general rule of thumb for a complex initiative with major fiscal implications, such as Prop 82, is that it should have 60 percent or more support at this stage to have a good chance of passing. Doubt usually sets in in the late stage of such an initiative campaign, bringing its support level down. In January, the PPIC poll had Prop 82 winning, 66 percent to 31 percent.
The poll contains some good news for embattled Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. His job approval rating has gone up some. Better still, his idea for a massive infrastructure bond package is popular. And voters, who of course are quite uninformed about what actually happened, mainly blame the Legislature for its failure to make California’s June ballot, seeing all the Arnold activity, latebreaking though it was, as a plus for him. While most voters say they disagree with Arnold on the issues, some 70 percent say they like him personally. And the governor leads both Westly and Angelides in general election matchups, though Westly does better than Angelides. In both trial heats, there are fully 30 percent undecided, which indicates that voters were not pushed with partisan identifications to make a choice, redounding to the benefit of Scharzenegger in mostly Democratic California. Arnold led Phil, 41 percent to 29 percent, and Steve, 39 percent to 31 percent. This result is out of synch with other polling, though Schwarzenegger may well lead at the moment.
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Phil’s losing? But I thought that all of that institutional support would make him the victor by default. Oh, wait, you mean the people get to decide?
I guess this stealth strategy is working. If it keeps up, we may never see Steve Westly in a public campaign event again!
Actually, I think it’s more a rope-a-dope strategy. Let Angelides punch himself out, then come on strong in the end and say, “I”m the guy who isn’t pompous and irratating, Vote for me.” Could work.
I wonder when Angelides starts the negative television ads. I wonder when he starts his positive television ads.
It is a new ball game, isn’t it? You knew about it first here.
It will be easy to defeat Arnold in November. First, rerun the ads to remind voters of his anti-firefighter, anti-cop, anti-nurse and anti-teacher positions. Second, run a new ad that plays a tape of Arnod saying he supports the Minutemen. Arnold would be toast.
Today weintraub makes this poll all about Arnold…dwelling on his high numbers that show that even with his missteps he is “liked”….I don’t see that being so important…he is charming and likable for the most part…But even I like Willie Brown ..but I would have never voted for him!..so I think being “liked” is a soft barometer and doesn’t translate into votes…and anyway, he will be running against Westly …who is likable, highly competent (as opposed to Arnold) and very bright…
given that this poll was taken before the westly ads aired and prior to both candidates responded to the immigration issue (which it looks like westly was much stronger) how accurate is this picture?
What I take from this poll is that Westly is clearly the stronger candidate in November against the Governor. It will be interesting to see if future polls show Westly opening up a margin on Angelides as Democrats start to engage in their own calculus as to which candidate would be more formidable in November.
Nancie, Westly’s ads, like Phil’s, had been running for a few weeks. Westly, however, had a sizeable name ID gap to make up with Angelides first.
Actually, Bill, before the ads aired, their name ID had always been about the same–around 30%. Westly has closed on Angelides, but their name ID remains about even.
Keep up the good work.
Phil Angelides had about a 10-point edge over Steve Westly in name ID. This is not surprising since he has run as the Democratic nominee in three statewide elections before this one. Westly had only run once.
Angelides ran for state treasurer in 1994, 1998, and 2002. Westly ran for state controller in 2002. Angelides began running for governor a few years ago. Westly began running last year.