In a major development in the wide-open race for Governor of California, state Controller Steve Westly, according to informed sources, will begin major market television advertising tomorrow.
This push is planned to continue throughout the campaign until the primary election day on June 6th. This amounts to 14 straight weeks of advertising around the state.
Westly’s advertising drive will commence in three major markets: Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Sacramento. These markets, covering California’s two major metropolitan areas and the state capital region, comprise some 80 percent of the statewide electorate. After establishing itself in those major markets, Westly’s advertising campaign will expand to all media markets in California.
I’m informed that this opening salvo is not a demonstration buy on the part of the former senior eBay executive and Stanford business lecturer. It is a substantial buy designed to introduce voters to Westly and move the ball down the field in the super-rich dot-com pioneer’s drive to secure the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Unless plans change, Westly’s TV advertising for the Democratic primary campaign will end when the primary is over.
State Treasurer and former state Democratic chairman Phil Angelides is the current Democratic frontrunner, with a narrow lead over Westly. It is not known when he will go on the air. In the most recent campaign finance report, through the end of 2005, Westly led Angelides in cash on hand, $24 million to $17 million.
As part of his test market tour of the Golden State, Westly has previously advertised in the Chico, Eureka, and Monterey markets, all in Northern California. He is currently on the air in the southern Central Valley market of Bakersfield, a conservative oil and agricultural region not unlike Tulsa or El Paso, where he arrives for two days of intensive personal campaigning at the end of the week.
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“The game is afoot.”
Bill, what do you think were the lessons, if any, of the ’98 primary when Checchi & Harman spent all that money on TV ads and both got trounced by Davis?
What we had in Al Checchi, the Northwest Airlines takeover artist, and Jane Harman, then a junior member of Congress, were two rich candidates who seemed unqualified to be runnning for governor of California. Checchi was a very unappealing candidate whose TV ads actually hurt him. Harman had no familiarity with California issues and in fact declined to discuss any issue other than abortion for several weeks after entering the race.
Based on what you’ve seen so far, does Westly come across as being as qualifed as Angelides? Is that a hurdle he’ll have to overcome?
As qualified as Phil? I’m not endorsing anyone. He is less experienced. Unlike Checchi, he is likable. Unlike Harman, he seems conversant and fluent in California issues.
It’s because of the experience factor that I find these test market tours of his interesting. I’ll be in Bakersfield.
Another difference between this and the 1998 gubernatorial primary is that Checchi and Harman directed most of their fire at each other. This allowed Davis to husband his resources and then blow both away with a closing drive. We don’t have that kind of three-cornered situation here.
Incidentally, and this is not to excuse the fundraising excesses of the Davis era. But I think one reason why he seemed so obsessive about it is that he faced a succession of super-rich opponents. I don’t think any other politician in America had five super-rich candidates running against him. Check it out. Al Checchi, Jane Harman, Dick Riordan, Bill Simon, Arnold Schwarzenegger.
And there was a sixth, Oracle software founder Larry Ellison, the richest man in California, who explored a race against Davis.
One thing people forget about Davis when they bring up the super-rich candidates defense: he was always a passionate fundraiser, going back to his days with Jerry Brown. To me, the fact that Davis actually seemed perfectly comfortable with constant fundraising said something bad about his character.
Another thing: as your list above shows, most of the super-rich were really lousy candidates. Only Arnold won, and he only had to win in a 75 day campaign. Would have been interesting to see how he would have done over the length of a normal campaign. I guess we’ll see this year, but he’s learned a few things since that first one.
Back to Westly–on these test market tours, I sure hope he’s testing out some policy ideas, because when you click on the issues section of his web site, man, it is slim and substance-free. (I don’t think a handsome smile and a pleasant demeanor is all he wants to go with.)
Ask him about Clean Money reform, will ya?
They seem to be ducking my test market of San Luis Obispo.
With the admitted disadvantage of having known Gray Davis from the time he was Jerry Brown’s chief of staff, I can tell you that there was a definite progression of his fundraising obsession that ratcheted up further after he realized he was in for a spate of super-rich opponents.
It is not at all true that they were all bad candidates. Most experts expected Jane Harman to win. She has turned into a powerhouse in Congress. Arnold was a very good candidate in the complicated recall, going from a dead stop with little preparation. Actually, he was a better politician as a recall candidate than he’s been through half his governorship.
Besides, a dufus with a ton of money can get elected if you, the non-rich opponent, can’t a ton of your own.
I think you will see that none of the three candidates have very impressive web sites on policy. Arnold barely has a web site!
I doubt that Westly won’t be coming to SLO. 14-plus weeks is a long time to campaign.
Wonderful News! A wonderful way for all of us to start off our week….
[...] « Westly Major Market TV Advertising Drive Begins Tomorrow [...]
I want to see the Westly TV ad. It is not on his web site yet.
Actually, it is. It turns out that the TV spot that is moving out statewide is the same introductory one that has been used in the test market tour.
Evidently it tested well not only in private focus groups but in the real world of the test markets.
The thing to do for a good public policy report is ignore all the media buys and concentrate on the positions and policies of the candidates.
None of them – Arnold, Angelides or Westley – are taking positions on key issues: how to finance State government and fund education, how to deal with the explosive growth of California prisons by 700% in 20 years, how to deal with the death penalty, and how to move to universal health care.
For a candidate who is taking firm positions that make sense, look at http://www.MichaelStrimling.com.
Mike’s campaign is a message campaign: that we can’t fund any programs unless we fix Prop 13 so that corporations pay taxes at the current value of property they own or lease. That the death penalty is biased, hugely expensive, doesn’t deter and not imposed in any modern country or 21 states. That the 3-strikes sentences of nonviolent prisoners — the longest in the nation — should be commuted for those who can show they are rehabilitated and able and willing to work.
With the other candidates, it is almost impossible to find out what their positions are, let alone how they intend to pay for their proposals.
Talking about the horse race, the money race and the media race is destructive of our democracy, where we used to engage on issues and policy. Where do the candidates stand on who should be taxed and who should pay for government services? Is there one contributor that they will risk offending? How do Arnold and Westly justify putting debt onto our children’s generation?